Start & SitNovember 30, 2006


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Week 13

By Nick Hopkins

I’d like to start off this week’s Start & Sit by extending a thank you to Tony Romo and Joseph Addai for making me look smart for highlighting them in last week’s edition. Nine combined touchdowns from those two is better than some of my fantasy teams did as a whole last week. Hopefully a little bit of that mojo carries over to this week, as the fantasy football regular season winds to a close. And don’t forget, if you have any Ravens or Bengals you would like to start – they play on Thursday this week! Once again, have a look at our rankings, and good luck!

Our system is based on two separate rankings: Risk and Reward. Each player or defense was given a statistical ranking for each of the two categories.

Risk is determined by anything that could negatively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as matchup, situation, and injuries.

Reward is determined by anything that could positively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as talent, matchup, and situation.

The Ranking for the two categories is as follows:

Risk: Score of 0 being the lowest risk, 10 being the highest risk.
Reward: Score of 0 being lowest reward, 10 being the highest reward.

 

QuarterbacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
Peyton Manning – INDat TEN17.81.89.6
Drew Brees – NOvs SF15.83.08.8
Tom Brady – NEvs DET15.03.28.2
Carson Palmer – CINvs BAL14.43.68.0
Tony Romo – DALat NYG13.44.27.6
Marc Bulger – STLvs ARI13.23.87.0
Philip Rivers – SDat BUF12.84.06.8
Steve McNair – BALat CIN12.43.86.2
Trent Green – KCat CLE11.84.26.0
Matt Leinart – ARIat STL11.84.86.6
Jake Delhomme – CARat PHI11.84.86.6
Matt Hasselbeck – SEAat DEN11.84.86.6
Chad Pennington – NYJat GB11.64.46.0
Brett Favre – GBvs NYJ11.64.66.2
Michael Vick – ATLat WAS11.45.46.8
Rex Grossman – CHIvs MIN11.05.86.8
Joey Harrington – MIAvs JAC10.84.85.6
Ben Roethlisberger – PITvs TB10.85.66.4
Alex Smith – SFat NO10.65.25.8
Vince Young – TENvs IND10.45.86.2
David Carr – HOUat OAK10.05.25.2
Jon Kitna – DETat NE9.85.45.2
Eli Manning – NYGvs DAL9.66.05.6
Jason Campbell – WASvs ATL9.25.44.6
David Garrard – JACat MIA9.05.04.0
Brad Johnson – MINat CHI9.05.64.6
Charlie Frye – CLEvs KC8.45.84.2
JP Losman – BUFvs SD8.46.24.6
Jeff Garcia – PHIvs CAR8.26.44.6
Bruce Gradkowski – TBat PIT8.06.24.2
Jay Cutler – DENvs SEA7.67.04.6
Aaron Brooks – OAKvs HOU7.26.63.8

 
Start:
Steve McNair, BAL (12.4 rating): Last week I advocated leaving McNair on your bench against a usually solid Pittsburgh defense. Well, the Ravens dispatched of Pittsburgh with little trouble, and McNair, had a decent although unspectacular day. Why change my tune now? Easy, this week McNair goes up against the Bengals 32nd ranked pass defense. Expect the Ravens to have continued success through the air on Thursday.

Sit:
Vince Young, TEN (10.4 rating): Giants fans are still in shock over what Young and his Titans did to their team in the 4th quarter last week. I imagine his performance last week will garner a lot of interest from fantasy owners who find him on their league’s waiver wire. He is certainly a good prospect, so while I would not advise against adding him to your team for the playoffs, he is probably not the greatest start next week against the Colts. Indianapolis has the third stingiest pass defense in the NFL, and could cause the rookie quarterback problems with their talented pass rushing defensive ends.
 

Running BacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
LaDainian Tomlinson – SDat BUF18.31.59.8
Larry Johnson – KCat CLE17.52.09.5
Steven Jackson – STLvs ARI16.02.38.3
Frank Gore – SFat NO15.33.08.3
Brian Westbrook – PHIvs CAR15.33.38.5
Willie Parker – PITvs TB15.03.08.0
Shaun Alexander – SEAat DEN13.84.07.8
Joseph Addai – INDat TEN13.53.57.0
Marion Barber – DALat NYG13.34.07.3
Tiki Barber – NYGvs DAL13.34.07.3
Deuce McAllister – NOvs SF13.03.56.5
Corey Dillon – NEvs DET12.54.57.0
Jamal Lewis – BALat CIN12.34.36.5
Ahman Green – GBvs NYJ12.34.87.0
Travis Henry – TENvs IND12.34.87.0
Laurence Maroney – NEvs DET12.05.37.3
Maurice Jones-Drew – JACat MIA11.84.86.5
Ladell Betts – WASvs ATL11.85.06.8
Edgerrin James – ARIat STL11.54.56.0
Warrick Dunn – ATLat WAS11.54.86.3
Fred Taylor – JACat MIA11.55.06.5
Reggie Bush – NOvs SF11.05.36.3
Cadillac Williams – TBat PIT10.85.36.0
DeAngelo Williams – CARat PHI10.85.56.3
Chester Taylor – MINat CHI10.85.86.5
Brandon Jacobs – NYGvs DAL10.55.05.5
Willis McGahee – BUFvs SD10.55.56.0
Thomas Jones – CHIvs MIN10.35.05.3
Dominic Rhodes – INDat TEN10.35.05.3
Julius Jones – DALat NYG10.35.86.0
Rudi Johnson – CINvs BAL10.06.06.0
Wali Lundy – HOUat OAK9.86.05.8
Justin Fargas – OAKvs HOU9.35.54.8
Samkon Gado – HOUat OAK9.05.84.8
Leon Washington – NYJat GB9.06.05.0
Tatum Bell – DENvs SEA8.86.04.8
Mike Bell – DENvs SEA8.86.04.8
Reuben Droughns – CLEvs KC8.56.04.5
Kevin Jones – DETat NE8.56.85.3
DeShaun Foster – CARat PHI8.36.34.5
Sammy Morris – MIAvs JAC8.06.34.3
Kevan Barlow – NYJat GB7.86.54.3
Jerious Norwood – ATLat WAS7.86.84.5
TJ Duckett – WASvs ATL7.36.33.5
Musa Smith – BALat CIN7.06.03.0
Cedric Houston – NYJat GB7.06.53.5
Vernand Morency – GBvs NYJ6.86.83.5
Cedric Benson – CHIvs MIN6.56.83.3
Correll Buckhalter – PHIvs CAR6.56.83.3
LenDale White – TENvs IND6.36.52.8
Michael Turner – SDat BUF6.06.52.5
Najeh Davenport – PITvs TB6.06.82.8
Ron Dayne – HOUat OAK6.07.33.3
Mike Anderson – BALat CIN5.86.52.3
Maurice Morris – SEAat DEN5.87.02.8
Arlen Harris – DETat NE4.88.53.3
Jerome Harrison – CLEvs KC4.38.02.3
Michael Robinson – SFat NO4.07.81.8
Noah Herron – GBvs NYJ3.88.32.0

 
Start:
Deuce McAllister, NO (13.0 rating): Sharing time with Reggie Bush may have limited Deuce’s yardage total this year, but he has still managed to score eight touchdowns, including four in his last four games. He should get the chance to get in the endzone again this week as the Saints host a 49er defense that has given up twelve rushing touchdowns this year. Only two other teams have been more accommodating to running backs in this respect.

Sit:
Julius Jones, DAL (10.3 rating): Jones may still be the starter in Dallas, but from a fantasy perspective he may have been passed by the Cowboy’s goalline back Marion Barber III. Barber has not only scored five touchdowns in the past four weeks to Jones’ zero, but he also outcarried Julius last week for the first time this year. I have to think Barber will see the field almost as much if not more than Jones in the coming weeks, while still stealing most of Jones’ touchdown opportunities, seriously limiting Julius’ fantasy potential. Not to mention a division game on the road against the Giants is not a great matchup this week for either back.
 

Wide ReceiversOpponentRatingRiskReward
Steve Smith – CARat PHI15.83.29.0
Reggie Wayne – INDat TEN15.03.28.2
Anquan Boldin – ARIat STL14.43.47.8
Larry Fitzgerald – ARIat STL14.43.47.8
Chad Johnson – CINvs BAL14.44.08.4
Donald Driver – GBvs NYJ14.23.47.6
Terrell Owens – DALat NYG14.24.08.2
Marvin Harrison – INDat TEN13.83.87.6
Torry Holt – STLvs ARI13.64.07.6
Roy Williams – DETat NE13.24.67.8
Andre Johnson – HOUat OAK12.84.27.0
Lee Evans – BUFvs SD12.64.67.2
Darrell Jackson – SEAat DEN12.64.67.2
Terry Glenn – DALat NYG12.24.66.8
Laveranues Coles – NYJat GB12.24.66.8
Plaxico Burress – NYGvs DAL12.25.07.2
Marques Colston – NOvs SF12.26.08.2
TJ Houshmandzadeh – CINvs BAL12.04.66.6
Bernard Berrian – CHIvs MIN12.05.07.0
Javon Walker – DENvs SEA12.05.07.0
Joe Horn – NOvs SF12.05.07.0
Deion Branch – SEAat DEN11.84.86.6
Mark Clayton – BALat CIN11.64.86.4
Greg Jennings – GBvs NYJ11.44.86.2
Braylon Edwards – CLEvs KC11.45.06.4
Joey Galloway – TBat PIT11.45.26.6
Muhsin Muhammad – CHIvs MIN11.25.26.4
Chris Chambers – MIAvs JAC11.25.26.4
Marty Booker – MIAvs JAC11.25.26.4
Reche Caldwell – NEvs DET11.25.46.6
Isaac Bruce – STLvs ARI10.85.05.8
Jerricho Cotchery – NYJat GB10.85.26.0
Keyshawn Johnson – CARat PHI10.64.85.4
Chris Henry – CINvs BAL10.65.66.2
Donte’ Stallworth – PHIvs CAR10.66.06.6
Santana Moss – WASvs ATL10.66.06.6
Antonio Bryant – SFat NO10.26.26.4
Reggie Brown – PHIvs CAR10.05.85.8
Drew Bennett – TENvs IND10.05.85.8
Derrick Mason – BALat CIN9.85.25.0
Nate Washington – PITvs TB9.65.65.2
Santonio Holmes – PITvs TB9.65.85.4
Mike Furrey – DETat NE9.46.05.4
Eddie Kennison – KCat CLE9.26.25.4
Rod Smith – DENvs SEA9.06.05.0
Eric Moulds – HOUat OAK9.06.05.0
Eric Parker – SDat BUF8.85.84.6
Bryant Johnson – ARIat STL8.66.04.6
Wes Welker – MIAvs JAC8.66.04.6
Chad Jackson – NEvs DET8.66.04.6
Kevin Curtis – STLvs ARI8.66.24.8
Matt Jones – JACat MIA8.66.45.0
Ernest Wilford – JACat MIA8.46.24.6
Keenan McCardell – SDat BUF8.06.44.4
Michael Jenkins – ATLat WAS8.06.64.6
Joe Jurevicius – CLEvs KC8.06.64.6
Reggie Williams – JACat MIA8.06.64.6
Michael Clayton – TBat PIT7.86.64.4
Arnaz Battle – SFat NO7.86.84.6
Doug Gabriel – NEvs DET7.66.23.8
Josh Reed – BUFvs SD7.66.44.0
Mark Bradley – CHIvs MIN7.66.64.2
Marcus Robinson – MINat CHI7.66.64.2
Randy Moss – OAKvs HOU7.67.24.8
Troy Brown – NEvs DET7.26.43.6
Roscoe Parrish – BUFvs SD7.26.84.0
Troy Williamson – MINat CHI7.27.44.6
Nate Burleson – SEAat DEN7.06.83.8
Travis Taylor – MINat CHI7.07.04.0
Sammie Parker – KCat CLE6.86.83.6
Tim Carter – NYGvs DAL6.87.24.0
Hank Baskett – PHIvs CAR6.87.44.2
Antwaan Randle El – WASvs ATL6.87.44.2
Ashley Lelie – ATLat WAS6.66.83.4
Justin McCareins – NYJat GB6.67.03.6
Brandon Stokely – INDat TEN6.67.23.8
Roddy White – ATLat WAS6.27.23.4
Bobby Engram – SEAat DEN5.67.63.2
Brandon Lloyd – WASvs ATL5.47.83.2
Dennis Northcutt – CLEvs KC5.07.82.8
Jerry Porter – OAKvs HOU4.88.23.0
Rashied Davis – CHIvs MIN4.48.02.4

 
Start:
Marvin Harrison, IND (13.8 rating): It has been a slightly disappointing fantasy season for Marvin Harrison, at least by his standards. It came to its low point last week, as he managed only 1 catch for 8 yards against the Eagles. But fear not, I expect Harrison to get back on track this week, and have a nice comeback game against the Titans.

Sit:
Braylon Edwards, CLE (11.4 rating): Edwards is a streaky receiver. He started the season with a pretty nice stretch, and had another good three game stretch recently, but I think now may be a bit of a down period. Last week was not pretty for any Brown. Braylon could only come up with 29 yards against a Bengal secondary that, as I mentioned before, has had trouble stopping the pass. When you end a game having to be restrained from going after your quarterback, you know things did not go as planned. It won’t get much easier for Braylon this week as he gets matched up against the Chiefs’ Ty Law.
 

Tight EndsOpponentRatingRiskReward
Antonio Gates – SDat BUF13.54.07.5
Todd Heap – BALat CIN13.34.07.3
Tony Gonzalez – KCat CLE12.83.86.5
Chris Cooley – WASvs ATL12.74.06.7
Jeremy Shockey – NYGvs DAL12.34.36.5
Alge Crumpler – ATLat WAS12.34.56.8
Kellen Winslow – CLEvs KC12.04.56.5
Jason Witten – DALat NYG12.04.56.5
Ben Watson – NEvs DET11.35.06.3
LJ Smith – PHIvs CAR11.35.06.3
Heath Miller – PITvs TB11.35.06.3
Desmond Clark – CHIvs MIN10.55.05.5
Randy McMichael – MIAvs JAC10.05.05.0
Owen Daniels – HOUat OAK9.85.04.8
Jermaine Wiggins – MINat CHI9.85.85.5
Daniel Graham – NEvs DET9.55.55.0
Ben Utecht – INDat TEN8.55.33.8
Stephen Alexander – DENvs SEA8.56.34.8
Eric Johnson – SFat NO8.36.04.3
George Wrighster – JACat MIA8.36.34.5
Bo Scaife – TENvs IND8.36.75.0
Bubba Franks – GBvs NYJ7.86.54.3
Chris Baker – NYJat GB7.56.03.5
Reggie Kelly – CINvs BAL7.36.84.0
Bryan Fletcher – INDat TEN7.06.53.5
Joe Klopfensteinvs ARI7.07.04.0
Marcus Pollard – DETat NE6.57.03.5
Jeremy Stevens – SEAat DEN6.37.03.3
Alex Smith – TBat PIT6.37.33.7
Kris Mangum – CARat PHI6.37.33.5
Adam Bergen – ARIat STL6.06.82.8
Courtney Anderson – OAKvs HOU6.06.82.8
Itula Mili – SEAat DEN6.07.33.3
Dan Campbell – DETat NE6.07.53.5
Jeb Putzier – HOUat OAK5.57.02.5
Jason Dunn – KCat CLE5.37.52.8
David Martin – GBvs NYJ5.37.83.0
John Gilmore – CHIvs MIN5.07.32.3
Anthony Becht – TBat PIT4.38.02.3
Mike Sellers – WASvs ATL3.38.31.7

 
Start:
Tony Gonzalez, KC (12.8 rating): Gonzalez was on a four game tear when he got injured against the Dolphins in week 10, but surprisingly missed only one game. He has now had one game to work out the kinks, and should be ready to go against a Cleveland team that got blasted by the Bengals last week. You should not have any reservations about plugging Gonzo into your lineup this week.

Sit:
Jerramy Stevens, SEA (6.3 rating): Stevens’ pass catching struggles were well documented against the Packers on Monday Night. While he did manage to pull down a touchdown late in the game, he is still wasting way too many opportunities. Those opportunities will be much less frequent against Denver than they were against Green Bay, so I would not advise using Stevens this week if you have the option.
 

KickersOpponentRatingRiskReward
Adam Vinatieri – INDat TEN15.03.08.0
Robbie Gould – CHIvs MIN14.33.37.5
Nate Kaeding – SDat BUF13.84.38.0
Jeff Wilkins – STLvs ARI13.03.86.8
Shayne Graham – CINvs BAL13.04.07.0
John Carney – NOvs SF13.04.07.0
Stephen Gostkowski – NEvs DET12.83.86.5
Lawrence Tynes – KCat CLE12.53.86.3
Matt Stover – BALat CIN12.54.36.8
Jason Elam – DENvs SEA12.54.36.8
John Kasay – CARat PHI12.34.56.8
Jay Feely – NYGvs DAL12.04.06.0
Josh Brown – SEAat DEN12.04.56.5
David Akers – PHIvs CAR11.85.06.8
Josh Scobee – JACat MIA11.54.05.5
Joe Nedney – SFat NO11.54.05.5
Neil Rackers – ARIat STL11.55.36.8
Morten Andersen – ATLat WAS11.34.55.8
Rian Lindell – BUFvs SD11.34.86.0
Jeff Reed – PITvs TB11.04.55.5
Kris Brown – HOUat OAK10.54.85.3
Mike Nugent – NYJat GB10.54.85.3
Sebastian Janikowski – OAKvs HOU10.54.85.3
Dave Rayner – GBvs NYJ10.05.35.3
Phil Dawson – CLEvs KC9.85.35.0
Olindo Mare – MIAvs JAC9.85.55.3
Matt Bryant – TBat PIT9.35.54.8
Jason Hanson – DETat NE9.05.54.5
Rob Bironas – TENvs IND9.05.54.5
Nick Novak – WASvs ATL8.85.84.5
Ryan Longwell – MINat CHI8.06.34.3
Martin Gramatica – DALat NYG4.08.32.3
Michael Koenen – ATLat WAS2.58.81.3

 
Start:
John Carney, NO (13.0 rating): He’s an old man, but Carney is still getting it down for the division leading Saints. At home in a dome, he should have a good game against the 49ers, who rank second to last in the NFL in scoring defense.

Sit:
Jason Hanson, DET (9.0 rating): Hanson has not had too bad of a season for the Lions, but this week he will not be working in the ideal conditions for a kicker. Not only will he be kicking outside in New England in December, but the Patriots have the second best scoring defense in the league, so his chances will also probably be limited.
 

Team DefenseOpponentRatingRiskReward
Chicagovs MIN15.33.38.5
Baltimoreat CIN14.04.38.3
New Englandvs DET13.53.87.3
Dallasat NYG12.84.87.5
San Diegoat BUF12.54.06.5
Denvervs SEA12.34.56.8
Pittsburghvs TB12.04.86.8
Indianapolisat TEN11.84.36.0
Kansas Cityat CLE11.84.36.0
New Orleansvs SF11.54.35.8
Miamivs JAC11.54.86.3
Jacksonvilleat MIA11.34.86.0
Carolinaat PHI11.35.06.3
Houstonat OAK10.84.55.3
Seattleat DEN10.84.85.5
Green Bayvs NYJ10.55.05.5
St. Louisvs ARI10.35.05.3
Minnesotaat CHI10.05.55.5
Philadelphiavs CAR10.05.55.5
Cincinnativs BAL9.85.85.5
Atlantaat WAS9.36.05.3
New York Jetsat GB9.05.84.8
Oaklandvs HOU9.05.84.8
Arizonaat STL9.06.05.0
Washingtonvs ATL8.86.35.0
San Franciscoat NO8.56.04.5
Tampa Bayat PIT8.35.84.0
New York Giantsvs DAL8.36.34.5
Clevelandvs KC8.06.54.5
Buffalovs SD7.37.34.5
Tennesseevs IND6.87.03.8
Detroitat NE6.07.53.5

 
Start:
San Diego (12.5 rating): Shawne “Light’s Out” Merriman returns this week for the Chargers, who go into Buffalo on a five game win streak. His presense alone greatly increases the value of a defense that was allready pretty good from a fantasy perspective. The Bills have shown some improvement on offense in recent weeks, but San Diego should still get enough sacks and turnovers to be a good fantasy start.

Sit:
Denver (12.3 rating): Now I don’t know if I would recommend benching the Broncos no matter what, but I would certainly see if there was another viable option available before plugging them into your starting lineup. They get Seattle at home, but the Seahawks finally have both Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck, and if last week’s game against Green Bay is any indication, particularly the second half of last week’s game, they have that offense rolling again. I think Seattle gives the Broncos’ defense all they can handle this week.

 
Special thanks to BlueBandit24, danielrp, dream_017, Kilroy1872, Leber, m16a, madaslives911, mattb47 and SwiperNoSwiping for their rankings and involvement with this week's article. For more insights and additional fine-tuning, visit our Who to Start/Bench forum section or listen to The Coach's Voice on Fantasy Cafe Radio.
 
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