Start & SitDecember 14, 2006


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Week 15

By Nick Hopkins

Most fantasy leagues are now down to the final four teams, so if you have made it this far, congratulations! This past weekend, two of the NFL’s best made their cases for the Most Valuable Player award. LaDainian Tomlinson scored another three touchdowns to set a new record for touchdowns scored in a season at 29. Drew Brees threw for 384 yards and 5 touchdowns, to stay on pace for nearly 5,000 yards through the air on the season. Meanwhile, Maurice Jones-Drew and Reggie Bush made similar pushes for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Will any of your players have an MVP-type performance for your fantasy team this week? Consult the Cafe’s Week 15 Start & Sit to find out.

Our system is based on two separate rankings: Risk and Reward. Each player or defense was given a statistical ranking for each of the two categories.

Risk is determined by anything that could negatively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as matchup, situation, and injuries.

Reward is determined by anything that could positively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as talent, matchup, and situation.

The Ranking for the two categories is as follows:

Risk: Score of 0 being the lowest risk, 10 being the highest risk.
Reward: Score of 0 being lowest reward, 10 being the highest reward.

 

QuarterbacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
Drew Brees – NOvs WAS17.91.19.0
Peyton Manning – INDvs CIN16.91.98.8
Carson Palmer – CINat IND16.42.28.7
Matt Hasselbeck – SEAvs SF16.12.28.3
Tom Brady – NEvs HOU15.13.08.1
Brett Favre – GBvs DET13.73.77.3
Steve McNair – BALvs CLE13.33.46.8
Tony Romo – DALat ATL13.34.47.8
Eli Manning – NYGvs PHI13.14.37.4
Marc Bulger – STLat OAK13.04.37.3
Philip Rivers – SDvs KC12.93.66.4
Jeff Garcia – PHIat NYG12.64.36.9
Matt Leinart – ARIvs DEN12.24.76.9
Michael Vick – ATLvs DAL12.05.17.1
Jon Kitna – DETat GB12.05.17.1
Vince Young – TENvs JAC12.05.47.4
Chad Pennington – NYJat MIN11.74.46.1
Trent Green – KCat SD11.34.65.9
Ben Roethlisberger – PITat CAR11.35.16.4
David Garrard – JACat TEN11.15.06.1
Rex Grossman – CHIvs TB10.96.17.0
Jay Cutler – DENat ARI10.35.76.0
Joey Harrington – MIAat BUF10.05.65.6
Alex Smith – SFat SEA10.05.75.7
David Carr – HOUat NE9.06.15.1
Brad Johnson – MINvs NYJ8.95.74.6
JP Losman – BUFvs MIA8.76.24.9
Jason Campbell – WASat NO8.76.24.9
Aaron Brooks – OAKvs STL7.46.84.2
Jake Delhomme – CARvs PIT7.37.14.4
Derek Anderson – CLEat BAL5.37.42.8
Bruce Gradkowski – TBat CHI5.17.72.8

 
Start:
Brett Favre, GB (13.7 rating): Favre has been up and down this year, but overall it has been a very strong comeback season. Brett always comes to play in division games, and he should have a good game against the lowly Lions, against whom he threw for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns back in Week 3. I expect the Favre-Driver connection to be big once again this week.

Sit:
Trent Green, KC (11.3 rating): Trent Green owners may still be remembering his 4 touchdown game against the Browns a couple weeks back, but on the road against the Chargers he will most likely struggle. The Chargers have to be giving quarterbacks nightmares the night before with their league leading 48 sacks. Green will have trouble finding his receivers if he can’t stay on his feet.
 

Running BacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
LaDainian Tomlinson – SDvs KC18.61.09.6
Rudi Johnson – CINat IND17.11.68.7
Steven Jackson – STLat OAK17.01.88.8
Shaun Alexander – SEAvs SF16.42.38.8
Larry Johnson – KCat SD16.32.28.6
Frank Gore – SFat SEA15.72.88.4
Brian Westbrook – PHIat NYG15.12.77.8
Tiki Barber – NYGvs PHI14.92.87.7
Ahman Green – GBvs DET14.73.07.7
Reggie Bush – NOvs WAS14.33.27.6
Maurice Jones-Drew – JACat TEN14.33.47.8
Willie Parker – PITat CAR14.23.67.8
Jamal Lewis – BALvs CLE14.13.27.3
Deuce McAllister – NOvs WAS13.83.16.9
Corey Dillon – NEvs HOU13.43.06.4
Fred Taylor – JACat TEN13.33.87.1
Thomas Jones – CHIvs TB13.23.46.7
Ladell Betts – WASat NO13.13.86.9
Marion Barber – DALat ATL12.74.26.9
Joseph Addai – INDvs CIN12.64.47.0
Tatum Bell – DENat ARI12.44.26.7
Cedric Benson – CHIvs TB12.04.26.2
Julius Jones – DALat ATL11.84.36.1
Sammy Morris – MIAat BUF11.74.25.9
Willis McGahee – BUFvs MIA11.45.26.7
Brandon Jacobs – NYGvs PHI10.85.46.2
Chester Taylor – MINvs NYJ10.66.16.7
Mike Bell – DENat ARI10.35.15.4
Edgerrin James – ARIvs DEN10.35.45.8
Dominic Rhodes – INDvs CIN9.75.24.9
Justin Fargas – OAKvs STL9.65.24.8
Travis Henry – TENvs JAC9.65.65.1
DeAngelo Williams – CARvs PIT9.06.25.2
Ron Dayne – HOUat NE8.66.04.6
Warrick Dunn – ATLvs DAL8.46.04.4
Cedric Houston – NYJat MIN8.36.04.3
DeShaun Foster – CARvs PIT8.36.24.6
Arlen Harris – DETat GB8.16.44.6
Vernand Morency – GBvs DET7.96.14.0
Wali Lundy – HOUat NE7.86.64.3
Cadillac Williams – TBat CHI7.47.14.6
Laurence Maroney – NEvs HOU7.37.44.8
Michael Turner – SDvs KC7.16.83.9
Jerious Norwood – ATLvs DAL7.07.24.2
Najeh Davenport – PITat CAR6.47.03.4
Leon Washington – NYJat MIN6.26.83.0
Reuben Droughns – CLEat BAL6.27.23.4
Chris Brown – TENvs JAC6.07.23.2
Musa Smith – BALvs CLE6.07.23.2
Maurice Morris – SEAvs SF5.77.12.8
Correll Buckhalter – PHIat NYG5.47.12.6
Noah Herron – GBvs DET5.37.32.7
Mike Anderson – BALvs CLE5.17.72.8
TJ Duckett – WASat NO4.77.82.4
Aveion Cason – DETat GB4.77.82.4
Lendale White – TENvs JAC4.78.02.7
Samkon Gado – HOUat NE4.48.22.7
Kevan Barlow – NYJat MIN4.08.12.1
Michael Robinson – SFat SEA3.98.01.9
Jerome Harrison – CLEat BAL3.48.41.9

 
Start:
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC (14.3 rating): Admit it, who left the Jaguars’ rookie sensation on the bench last week? Unless you are stacked at running back, you are not going to want to make that mistake again. Fred Taylor may be the Jaguars’ starter in name, but Jones-Drew has more catches and touchdowns than his teammate in the backfield. The Titans give up over 140 rushing yards per game so there should be enough to go around between the two backs. At this point in the season, Jones-Drew’s playmaking ability cannot be overlooked.

Sit:
DeAngelo Williams, CAR (9.0 rating): Unlike his fellow rookie Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams is not a guy you want in your starting lineup in week 15. Williams filled in well for Foster for a few weeks, but last week was a bad sign for the future of the Panthers’ backfield. The two backs only got 10 carries combined, but more importantly, Williams only got two carries to Foster’s eight. The Panthers play another team with a pretty good run defense this week: The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5th in the NFL in rushing yards given up per game.
 

Wide ReceiversOpponentRatingRiskReward
Chad Johnson – CINat IND16.42.28.7
Donald Driver – GBvs DET16.12.48.6
Marvin Harrison – INDvs CIN15.62.68.1
Reggie Wayne – INDvs CIN15.62.68.1
Terrell Owens – DALat ATL15.62.78.2
Roy Williams – DETat GB15.43.08.4
Steve Smith – CARvs PIT15.32.88.1
TJ Houshmandzadeh – CINat IND14.72.97.6
Terry Glenn – DALat ATL14.22.97.1
Plaxico Burress – NYGvs PHI14.23.27.4
Torry Holt – STLat OAK14.23.67.8
Deion Branch – SEAvs SF13.63.26.8
Larry Fitzgerald – ARIvs DEN13.63.77.2
Laveranues Coles – NYJat MIN13.43.77.1
Andre Johnson – HOUat NE13.03.86.8
Mike Furrey – DETat GB12.83.46.2
Anquan Boldin – ARIvs DEN12.84.16.9
Donte’ Stallworth – PHIat NYG12.84.37.1
Javon Walker – DENat ARI12.84.87.6
Derrick Mason – BALvs CLE12.24.06.2
Marques Colston – NOvs WAS12.15.07.1
Jerricho Cotchery – NYJat MIN11.94.26.1
Lee Evans – BUFvs MIA11.95.27.1
Marty Booker – MIAat BUF11.84.36.1
Antonio Bryant – SFat SEA11.44.86.2
Mark Clayton – BALvs CLE11.34.76.0
Chris Henry – CINat IND11.35.06.3
Reggie Brown – PHIat NYG11.24.75.9
Bernard Berrian – CHIvs TB11.15.16.2
Isaac Bruce – STLat OAK11.04.35.3
Santana Moss – WASat NO11.05.06.0
Muhsin Muhammad – CHIvs TB11.05.16.1
Reche Caldwell – NEvs HOU10.85.15.9
Greg Jennings – GBvs DET10.85.26.0
Devery Henderson – NOvs WAS10.85.26.0
Matt Jones – JACat TEN10.85.66.3
Keyshawn Johnson – CARvs PIT10.75.05.7
Nate Washington – PITat CAR10.65.15.7
Nate Burleson – SEAvs SF10.04.94.9
Drew Bennett – TENvs JAC9.95.15.0
Braylon Edwards – CLEat BAL9.95.65.4
Eddie Kennison – KCat SD9.85.65.3
Chris Chambers – MIAat BUF9.75.45.1
Joey Galloway – TBat CHI9.75.85.4
Wes Welker – MIAat BUF9.64.94.4
Santonio Holmes – PITat CAR9.45.65.0
Eric Parker – SDvs KC9.15.44.6
Kevin Curtis – STLat OAK9.15.64.7
Rod Smith – DENat ARI8.95.74.6
Bryant Johnson – ARIvs DEN8.96.25.1
Reggie Williams – JACat TEN8.96.35.2
Ernest Wilford – JACat TEN8.66.14.7
Hines Ward – PITat CAR8.66.14.7
Randy Moss – OAKvs STL8.47.15.6
Marcus Robinson – MINvs NYJ8.36.24.6
Joe Jurevicius – CLEat BAL8.26.14.3
Joe Horn – NOvs WAS8.17.25.3
Sammie Parker – KCat SD7.96.34.2
Eric Moulds – HOUat NE7.86.24.0
Arnaz Battle – SFat SEA7.66.33.9
Troy Brown – NEvs HOU7.46.43.9
Michael Jenkins – ATLvs DAL7.36.94.2
Troy Williamson – MINvs NYJ7.26.94.1
Bobby Engram – SEAvs SF7.06.63.6
Antwaan Randle El – WASat NO7.06.83.8
Travis Taylor – MINvs NYJ6.86.43.2
Keenan McCardell – SDvs KC6.86.73.4
Chad Jackson – NEvs HOU6.87.13.9
Justin McCareins – NYJat MIN6.66.43.0
Mark Bradley – CHIvs TB6.46.83.2
Hank Baskett – PHIat NYG6.36.73.0
Brandon Lloyd – WASat NO6.07.33.3
Josh Reed – BUFvs MIA5.77.22.9
Ashley Lelie – ATLvs DAL5.67.43.0
Tim Carter – NYGvs PHI5.37.22.6
Roddy White – ATLvs DAL5.37.42.8
Rashied Davis – CHIvs TB4.77.72.3
Doug Gabriel – OAKvs STL4.37.41.8
Dennis Northcutt – CLEat BAL4.37.72.0
Roscoe Parrish – BUFvs MIA4.27.92.1
Jerry Porter – OAKvs STL4.08.32.3
Mike Williams – DETat GB3.28.61.8

 
Start:
Deion Branch, SEA (13.6 rating): With Darrell Jackson out, Branch will be the #1 receiving option for Matt Hasselbeck. That’s especially good news for Deion with his matchup against a 49er defense that is weak against the pass. Packer receivers were able to exploit the Niners secondary several times last week. San Francisco has allowed 22 passing touchdowns on the season.

Sit:
Drew Bennett, TEN (9.9 rating): The emergence of Vince Young has allowed for a few nice games from Drew Bennett, but he is anything but consistent. The Titans play Jacksonville this weekend, which means Bennett will probably see a lot of corner back Rashean Mathis, one of the best cover corners in the NFL. Bennett should stay stashed away at the bottom of your bench this week.
 

Tight EndsOpponentRatingRiskReward
Antonio Gates – SDvs KC16.91.78.6
Todd Heap – BALvs CLE15.22.67.8
Tony Gonzalez – KCat SD14.82.87.6
Jeremy Shockey – NYGvs PHI14.13.47.6
Alge Crumpler – ATLvs DAL13.03.86.8
LJ Smith – PHIat NYG12.14.26.3
Jason Witten – DALat ATL12.04.36.3
Kellen Winslow – CLEat BAL11.94.66.4
Chris Cooley – WASat NO11.64.76.2
Heath Miller – PITat CAR11.24.75.9
Jeremy Stevens – SEAvs SF11.04.75.7
Ben Watson – NEvs HOU10.85.96.7
Desmond Clark – CHIvs TB10.25.35.6
Randy McMichael – MIAat BUF10.15.25.3
George Wrighster – JACat TEN9.75.24.9
Vernon Davis – SFat SEA9.15.64.7
Daniel Graham – NEvs HOU8.95.94.8
Jermaine Wiggins – MINvs NYJ8.85.84.6
Owen Daniels – HOUat NE8.76.04.7
Ben Utecht – INDvs CIN7.76.34.0
Chris Baker – NYJat MIN7.06.73.7
Kris Mangum – CARvs PIT6.17.13.2
Bo Scaife – TENvs JAC6.17.33.4
Bubba Franks – GBvs DET5.97.02.9
Stephen Alexander – DENat ARI5.87.23.0
Joe Klopfensteinat OAK5.77.22.9
Bryan Fletcher – INDvs CIN5.77.33.0
Reggie Kelly – CINat IND5.47.32.8
Alex Smith – TBat CHI5.47.63.0
David Martin – GBvs DET5.27.42.7
Marcus Pollard – DETat GB5.07.22.2
Courtney Anderson – OAKvs STL5.07.42.4
Eric Johnson – SFat SEA4.97.22.1
Steve Heiden – CLEat BAL4.77.72.3
Dan Campbell – DETat GB4.67.92.4
Itula Mili – SEAvs SF4.47.11.6
Jeb Putzier – HOUat NE4.47.72.1
Jason Dunn – KCat SD3.97.91.8
Anthony Becht – TBat CHI3.38.31.7
Adam Bergen – ARIvs DEN3.28.11.3

 
Start:
Jeremy Shockey, NYG (14.1 rating): The fact that Shockey should be starting is not any kind of revelation, but the Giants’ tight end has been on quite a roll recently, and it deserves mentioning. Shockey has had five or more catches each week for the past four weeks including six catches and a touchdown in each of his past two. He and Eli seem to have gotten into a good rhythm which I expect to continue over these final three weeks.

Sit:
Stephen Alexander, DEN (5.8 rating): Alexander is most likely only considered in the deepest leagues, but in case you are in that situation keep in mind that the rookie tight end Tony Scheffler caught three passes, two for touchdowns, last week. Jay Cutler seems to have found something he likes in Scheffler, so this may be the end of Stephen Alexander’s usefulness as a fantasy player.
 

KickersOpponentRatingRiskReward
Adam Vinatieri – INDvs CIN14.82.77.4
Robbie Gould – CHIvs TB14.62.47.0
Shayne Graham – CINat IND14.32.97.2
Josh Scobee – JACat TEN13.92.96.8
Nate Kaeding – SDvs KC13.83.27.0
Josh Brown – SEAvs SF13.63.26.8
Matt Stover – BALvs CLE13.43.26.7
John Carney – NOvs WAS13.43.26.7
Dave Rayner – GBvs DET12.63.96.4
Jeff Reed – PITat CAR12.43.76.1
Stephen Gostkowski – NEvs HOU12.44.06.4
David Akers – PHIat NYG12.33.76.0
Jason Elam – DENat ARI12.34.36.7
Jeff Wilkins – STLat OAK12.23.96.1
Ryan Longwell – MINvs NYJ12.14.06.1
Jay Feely – NYGvs PHI12.03.95.9
Neil Rackers – ARIvs DEN11.74.05.7
Lawrence Tynes – KCat SD11.74.15.8
John Kasay – CARvs PIT11.64.35.9
Jason Hanson – DETat GB10.94.95.8
Martin Gramatica – DALat ATL10.64.85.3
Olindo Mare – MIAat BUF10.64.85.3
Joe Nedney – SFat SEA10.44.85.2
Rian Lindell – BUFvs MIA10.24.44.7
Morten Andersen – ATLvs DAL10.15.05.1
Rob Bironas – TENvs JAC9.95.25.1
Mike Nugent – NYJat MIN9.45.85.2
Shaun Suisham – WASat NO9.35.44.8
Sebastian Janikowski – OAKvs STL9.35.75.0
Kris Brown – HOUat NE7.76.34.0
Phil Dawson – CLEat BAL6.86.43.2
Matt Bryant – TBat CHI6.77.13.8

 
Start:
Matt Stover, BAL (13.4 rating): Stover is Mr. Dependable for the Ravens, and he will have a good opportunity to put some points on the board this week against the 4-9 Browns. The Ravens can clinch the AFC North this week with a good performance against Cleveland.

Sit:
Matt Bryant, TB (6.7 rating): A kicker for one of the worst offenses football going up against one of the best defenses in football? Sorry, Mr. Bryant, but no fantasy team is going to go near that one.
 

Team DefenseOpponentRatingRiskReward
Baltimorevs CLE18.11.09.1
Chicagovs TB17.91.39.2
New Englandvs HOU14.43.17.6
San Diegovs KC14.23.17.3
Jacksonvilleat TEN13.63.77.2
Seattlevs SF13.33.77.0
Pittsburghat CAR12.84.06.8
Miamiat BUF12.63.96.4
Denverat ARI12.44.16.6
Dallasat ATL12.14.36.4
Minnesotavs NYJ11.74.46.1
Carolinavs PIT11.34.96.2
New Orleansvs WAS11.24.35.6
St. Louisat OAK11.24.86.0
Philadelphiaat NYG11.04.85.8
New York Jetsat MIN10.84.85.6
New York Giantsvs PHI10.64.95.4
Buffalovs MIA10.44.75.1
Green Bayvs DET10.25.65.8
Oaklandvs STL9.35.85.1
Arizonavs DEN9.25.64.8
Atlantavs DAL9.25.85.0
Cincinnatiat IND9.16.05.1
Tennesseevs JAC8.05.83.8
Tampa Bayat CHI7.96.34.2
Detroitat GB7.86.34.1
Kansas Cityat SD7.76.23.9
San Franciscoat SEA7.26.33.6
Indianapolisvs CIN6.86.93.7
Clevelandat BAL5.96.92.8
Washingtonat NO5.87.12.9
Houstonat NE5.67.12.7

 
Start:
Minnesota (11.7 rating): The Jets seemed to take a major step back offensively last week against Buffalo. The Vikings are third in the league in takeaways with 31, so they have the ability to take advantage of the Jets’ mistakes. If Chad Pennington and company are not careful with the ball in Minnesota, the Vikes’ defense could make some fantasy owners very happy.

Sit:
Cincinnati (9.1 rating): The Bengals defense has looked great in their last three games, but if you take a look at who they have played (Cleveland, Baltimore, Oakland) it is a far from impressive list of offenses. The Colts offense, despite being down lately, is still one of the best in the NFL, so I would not expect too much from the Bengals’ defense. A Carson Palmer – Peyton Manning shootout is probably a good bet.

 
Special thanks to BlueBandit24, danielrp, dream_017, killiansjmd, knapplc, madaslives911, mattb47, SwiperNoSwiping, The Balanced Man, The_Dude, and The Lung for their rankings and involvement with this week's article. For more insights and additional fine-tuning, visit our Who to Start/Bench forum section or listen to The Coach's Voice on Fantasy Cafe Radio.
 

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