Week 5

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This week, we are bringing something new to the table. A Start & Sit column based on a much more sophisticated and intriguing system. We kidnapped six of the Cafe’s finest Fantasy Football experts, locked them together in a tiny room, and fed them only sugar cubes and coffee until they spilled the beans on the best and worst starts of the week.

Our new system is based on two separate rankings: Risk and Reward. Each player or defense was given a statistical ranking for each of the two categories.

Risk is determined by anything that could negatively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes things such as: match up, situation and injuries.

Reward is determined by anything that could positively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes things such as: talent, match up and situation.

The Ranking for the two categories is as follows:

Risk: Score of 1 being the lowest risk, 10 being the highest risk.

Reward: Score of 1 being lowest reward, 10 being the highest reward.

Reward was then divided by Risk to give us an overall rating for that player or defense. Below, the players are separated by position and ranked from the highest(best) rating to the lowest(worst) rating (Start to Sit).

 

Quarterbacks	Team	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Peyton Manning	IND	vs TEN	10.0	1.0	10.0
Marc Bulger	STL	at GB	3.7	2.3	8.3
Donovan McNabb	PHI	vs DAL	3.3	2.5	8.3
Jake Delhomme	CAR	vs CLE	3.0	2.5	7.5
Tom Brady	NE	vs MIA	2.8	2.5	7.0
Drew Brees	NO	vs TB	2.0	3.3	6.5
Brett Favre	GB	vs STL	1.9	3.8	7.3
Byron Leftwich	JAC	vs NYJ	1.8	3.3	6.0
Rex Grossman	CHI	vs BUF	1.8	3.8	6.8
Eli Manning	NYG	vs WAS	1.8	3.8	6.8
Jon Kitna	DET	at MIN	1.7	3.8	6.3
Drew Bledsoe	DAL	at PHI	1.6	4.3	7.0
Brad Johnson	MIN	vs DET	1.6	3.5	5.8
Mark Brunell	WAS	at NYG	1.5	4.3	6.5
Damon Huard	KC	at ARI	1.5	4.0	6.0
Alex Smith	SF	vs OAK	1.5	4.0	6.0
Chad Pennington	NYJ	at JAC	1.3	4.5	6.0
Steve McNair	BAL	at DEN	1.0	5.3	5.0
Charlie Frye	CLE	at CAR	0.8	6.5	5.0
Philip Rivers	SD	vs PIT	0.7	6.5	4.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	at SD	0.7	7.0	5.0
Jake Plummer	DEN	vs BAL	0.7	6.8	4.8
Daunte Culpepper	MIA	at NE	0.7	7.3	4.8
Matt Leinart	ARI	vs KC	0.5	8.3	4.3
Andrew Walter	OAK	at SF	0.4	7.8	3.3
Vince Young	TEN	at IND	0.4	8.3	3.0
Bruce Gradkowski	TB	at NO	0.3	8.8	2.8
J.P. Losman	BUF	at CHI	0.3	8.5	2.5
Michael Vick	ATL	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carson Palmer	CIN	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
David Carr	HOU	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0

 
 
Start:
Jake Delhomme, CAR (3.0 rating): Everyone who happened to drop this guy after his weak performances without Steve Smith in weeks 1 and 2 are kicking themselves now. Plain and simple, Steve Smith makes that offense tick. With Smith back in action and looking fully healthy, Delhomme has his favorite target back on the field and his fantasy value back to where we thought it was when we drafted him.

 
Sit:
Matt Leinart, ARI (0.5 rating): Unless you have been under a rock for the past week, you would know that Matt Leinart is getting the start this Sunday. That’s right, we all predicted it before the season started. Old man Warner wouldn’t last, and well it looks like Leinart’s time has come. Unfortunately this isn’t the week to start him. He’s going against a very tough Kansas City team, who embarrassed the 49ers last week 41-0. This isn’t the greatest situation to be thrown into, especially with Arizona’s offensive line problems. Sit him this week and look to possibly start him in upcoming weeks.

 

Running Backs	Team	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Larry Johnson	KC	at ARI	6.2	1.5	9.3
Steven Jackson	STL	at GB	5.5	1.5	8.3
LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	vs PIT	2.9	2.8	8.0
Clinton Portis	WAS	at NYG	2.8	2.8	7.8
Frank Gore	SF	vs OAK	2.2	3.3	7.0
Joseph Addai	IND	vs TEN	1.9	3.5	6.8
DeShaun Foster	CAR	vs CLE	1.9	3.8	7.0
Laurence Maroney	NE	vs MIA	1.9	3.8	7.0
LaMont Jordan	OAK	at SF	1.9	3.8	7.0
Thomas Jones	CHI	vs BUF	1.8	3.8	6.8
Tiki Barber	NYG	vs WAS	1.7	4.5	7.8
Kevin Jones	DET	at MIN	1.7	4.3	7.3
Dominic Rhodes	IND	vs TEN	1.7	3.8	6.3
Fred Taylor	JAC	vs NYJ	1.6	4.0	6.5
Chester Taylor	MIN	vs DET	1.6	4.3	6.8
Julius Jones	DAL	at PHI	1.4	4.5	6.5
Deuce McAllister	NO	vs TB	1.4	4.0	5.8
Reggie Bush	NO	vs TB	1.4	4.3	5.8
Brian Westbrook	PHI	vs DAL	1.3	6.0	7.8
Edgerrin James	ARI	vs KC	1.3	5.5	7.0
Ahman Green	GB	vs STL	1.2	5.8	7.0
Willie Parker	PIT	at SD	1.2	5.8	7.0
Corey Dillon	NE	vs MIA	1.2	4.8	5.8
Ronnie Brown	MIA	at NE	1.1	5.3	5.8
Cadillac Williams	TB	at NO	1.0	5.8	6.0
Jamal Lewis	BAL	at DEN	1.0	5.8	5.5
DeAngelo Williams	CAR	vs CLE	0.9	5.8	5.3
Tatum Bell	DEN	vs BAL	0.9	6.8	6.0
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	vs NYJ	0.9	6.0	5.3
Willis McGahee	BUF	at CHI	0.8	7.3	5.8
Marion Barber	DAL	at PHI	0.8	6.0	4.8
Reuben Droughns	CLE	at CAR	0.8	6.8	5.3
Kevan Barlow	NYJ	at JAC	0.6	7.0	4.5
Correll Buckhalter	PHI	vs DAL	0.6	7.5	4.8
Ladell Betts	WAS	at NYG	0.6	6.8	3.8
Chris Brown	TEN	at IND	0.5	7.5	3.8
Brandon Jacobs	NYG	vs WAS	0.5	7.0	3.3
Travis Henry	TEN	at IND	0.5	7.8	3.5
Michael Robinson	SF	vs OAK	0.4	7.0	3.0
Michael Turner	SD	vs PIT	0.4	7.8	3.0
Lendale White	TEN	at IND	0.3	8.3	2.5
Mike Bell	DEN	vs BAL	0.3	8.5	2.5
Leon Washington	NYJ	at JAC	0.3	8.0	2.3
Musa Smith	BAL	at DEN	0.3	7.5	2.0
Cedric Benson	CHI	vs BUF	0.3	8.0	2.0
Jerome Harrison	CLE	at CAR	0.2	8.3	1.8
Mike Anderson	BAL	at DEN	0.2	7.8	1.5
Cedric Houston	NYJ	at JAC	0.1	9.8	1.0
Warrick Dunn	ATL	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jerious Norwood	ATL	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Rudi Johnson	CIN	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Ron Dayne	HOU	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Samkon Gado	HOU	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Shaun Alexander	SEA	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Maurice Morris	SEA	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0

 
Start:
Joseph Addai, IND (1.9 rating): What could be better for fantasy owners than the Colts playing the helpless Titans? Joseph Addai has worked his way into the Indianapolis running game as well as the passing game. This week could be huge. Look for a blowout by halftime and Addai running wild for 2 quarters.

 
Sit:
Mike Bell, DEN (0.3 rating): The rookie that emerged from nowhere to become Denver’s starting running back, has fallen right back to earth. Shanahan has decided to go from rotating Tatum Bell and Mike Bell to naming Tatum Bell the sole starter. Going against Baltimore’s #4 ranked rush defense doesn’t help his cause either.

 

Wide Receivers	Team	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Marvin Harrison	IND	vs TEN	7.4	1.3	9.3
Torry Holt	STL	at GB	7.4	1.3	9.3
Reggie Wayne	IND	vs TEN	5.2	1.5	7.8
Steve Smith	CAR	vs CLE	4.6	2.0	9.3
Terrell Owens	DAL	at PHI	2.8	3.0	8.3
Isaac Bruce	STL	at GB	2.5	2.5	6.3
Terry Glenn	DAL	at PHI	2.4	3.0	7.3
Roy Williams	DET	at MIN	2.4	3.0	7.3
Antonio Bryant	SF	vs OAK	2.1	3.3	6.8
Plaxico Burress	NYG	vs WAS	2.0	3.5	7.0
Santana Moss	WAS	at NYG	2.0	3.8	7.5
Marques Colston	NO	vs TB	1.9	3.5	6.8
Greg Jennings	GB	vs STL	1.8	3.8	6.8
Donald Driver	GB	vs STL	1.8	4.0	7.0
Reggie Williams	JAC	vs NYJ	1.7	3.8	6.5
Muhsin Muhammad	CHI	vs BUF	1.6	3.8	6.0
Keyshawn Johnson	CAR	vs CLE	1.5	4.0	6.0
Joe Horn	NO	vs TB	1.5	4.0	6.0
Bernard Berrian	CHI	vs BUF	1.5	4.3	6.3
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	at JAC	1.4	4.3	6.0
Anquan Boldin	ARI	vs KC	1.4	5.0	7.0
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	vs KC	1.4	5.0	7.0
Eddie Kennison	KC	at ARI	1.4	3.8	5.3
Javon Walker	DEN	vs BAL	1.4	4.8	6.5
Derrick Mason	BAL	at DEN	1.4	4.3	5.8
Troy Williamson	MIN	vs DET	1.3	4.8	6.3
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	at JAC	1.3	4.8	6.3
Hines Ward	PIT	at SD	1.2	5.3	6.5
Doug Gabriel	NE	vs MIA	1.2	4.3	5.3
Amani Toomer	NYG	vs WAS	1.2	4.8	5.5
Braylon Edwards	CLE	at CAR	1.1	5.5	6.3
Reggie Brown	PHI	vs DAL	1.1	5.5	6.0
Chris Chambers	MIA	at NE	1.1	5.8	6.3
Randy Moss	OAK	at SF	1.1	6.5	7.0
Donte’ Stallworth	PHI	vs DAL	1.0	6.3	6.3
Mike Furrey	DET	at MIN	1.0	5.3	5.0
Drew Bennett	TEN	at IND	0.9	6.8	5.8
Joey Galloway	TB	at NO	0.7	6.8	5.0
Travis Taylor	MIN	vs DET	0.7	5.8	4.3
Antwaan Randle El	WAS	at NYG	0.7	5.8	4.3
Rod Smith	DEN	vs BAL	0.7	6.8	4.8
Brandon Stokely	IND	vs TEN	0.7	5.5	3.8
Troy Brown	NE	vs MIA	0.6	5.5	3.5
Keenan McCardell	SD	vs PIT	0.6	6.5	4.0
Brandon Lloyd	WAS	at NYG	0.6	5.8	3.5
Ernest Wilford	JAC	vs NYJ	0.6	6.3	3.8
Joe Jurevicius	CLE	at CAR	0.6	7.3	4.0
Mark Clayton	BAL	at DEN	0.5	7.0	3.8
Reche Caldwell	NE	vs MIA	0.5	6.3	3.3
Lee Evans	BUF	at CHI	0.5	7.0	3.5
David Givens	TEN	at IND	0.5	7.8	3.8
Michael Clayton	TB	at NO	0.5	7.3	3.5
Sammie Parker	KC	at ARI	0.5	6.8	3.3
Eric Parker	SD	vs PIT	0.4	7.3	3.3
Santonio Holmes	PIT	at SD	0.4	7.5	3.3
Arnaz Battle	SF	vs OAK	0.4	7.3	3.0
Wes Welker	MIA	at NE	0.4	7.8	3.0
Matt Jones	JAC	vs NYJ	0.4	7.3	2.8
Nate Washington	PIT	at SD	0.3	8.0	2.8
Drew Carter	CAR	vs CLE	0.3	7.5	2.3
Josh Reed	BUF	at CHI	0.2	8.5	1.8
Roscoe Parrish	BUF	at CHI	0.2	9.0	1.8
Dennis Northcutt	CLE	at CAR	0.2	8.3	1.5
Michael Jenkins	ATL	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Roddy White	ATL	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Chad Johnson	CIN	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Chris Henry	CIN	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Andre Johnson	HOU	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Eric Moulds	HOU	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Darrell Jackson	SEA	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Deion Branch	SEA	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Nate Burleson	SEA	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Bobby Engram	SEA	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0

 
Start:
Isaac Bruce, STL (2.5 rating): One of the top surprises this week is Isaac Bruce. He had a touchdown and a two point conversion in last week’s game and gets to try his luck this week against the Green Bay Packers, who everyone saw get handled through the air last week by McNabb and the Eagles. Green Bay‘s pass defense being 31st in the NFL means big time Fantasy points for Rams wide receivers.

 
Sit:
Rod Smith, DEN (0.7 rating): Rod Smith has looked anything but excellent so far this season. Quite a disappointment for the owners that drafted him thinking Javon Walker would take some of the coverage off him. Plummer hasn’t looked stellar thus far either. Look for Rod Smith to re-emerge later this season, but for this week, let him sit on the bench.

 

Tight Ends	Team	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Tony Gonzalez	KC	at ARI	5.2	1.5	7.8
Ben Watson	NE	vs MIA	2.6	2.5	6.5
Todd Heap	BAL	at DEN	2.3	3.0	6.8
Jeremy Shockey	NYG	vs WAS	2.2	3.3	7.0
L.J. Smith	PHI	vs DAL	2.2	3.3	7.0
Dallas Clark	IND	vs TEN	2.0	3.3	6.5
Antonio Gates	SD	vs PIT	1.9	3.8	7.0
Desmond Clark	CHI	vs BUF	1.8	3.3	5.8
Eric Johnson	SF	vs OAK	1.8	3.3	5.8
Kellen Winslow	CLE	at CAR	1.6	4.3	7.0
Jason Witten	DAL	at PHI	1.6	4.0	6.3
Jermaine Wiggins	MIN	vs DET	1.5	3.5	5.3
Heath Miller	PIT	at SD	1.3	4.8	6.3
Chris Cooley	WAS	at NYG	1.3	4.3	5.5
Randy McMichael	MIA	at NE	1.2	5.0	5.8
Bubba Franks	GB	vs STL	1.1	5.0	5.3
Chris Baker	NYJ	at JAC	0.9	5.0	4.5
Daniel Graham	NE	vs TB	0.8	5.3	4.3
Ben Troupe	TEN	at IND	0.6	6.5	3.8
Bryan Fletcher	IND	vs TEN	0.5	6.3	3.0
John Gilmore	CHI	vs BUF	0.4	6.3	2.8
George Wrighster	JAC	vs NYJ	0.4	6.3	2.8
Courtney Anderson	OAK	at SF	0.4	7.0	2.8
Alex Smith	TB	at NO	0.4	7.5	2.8
David Martin	GB	vs STL	0.3	7.8	2.5
Bo Scaife	TEN	at IND	0.3	7.3	2.3
Kris Mangum	CAR	vs CLE	0.3	7.8	2.0
Mike Sellers	WAS	at NYG	0.3	8.0	2.0
Stephen Alexander	DEN	vs BAL	0.2	7.5	1.8
Anthony Becht	TB	at NO	0.2	8.3	1.8
Adam Bergen	ARI	vs KC	0.2	8.5	1.8
Alge Crumpler	ATL	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Owen Daniels	HOU	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jeb Putzier	HOU	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Itula Mili	SEA	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0

 
Start:
Ben Watson, NE (2.6 rating): Ben Watson came out of pre-season looking like a crisp $100 bill, shredding defenses right and left. With Branch holding out, this was looking like the TE sleeper of the year. So far he has been mediocre, but don’t dare drop him or trade him just yet, as more weeks come so will the touchdowns. This week he gets a crack at the Miami Dolphins, who are ranked 23rd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to TE’s. This is the perfect week for Watson to break out.
 

Bench:
Randy McMichael, MIA (1.2 rating): The Dolphins are anything but good, in fact, they’re terrible. With an Offensive line like they have, they might as well join forces with the Arizona Cardinals and combine their 2 offensive lines into 1 and try to make somewhat of an NFL offensive line. Ok, enough rambling about the helpless Dolphins. McMichael is a stud. The only problem is he isn’t getting the rock. New England’s defense is nothing to mess with either after what they did to Cincinnati last week. This is not the week to start McMichael, so let him ride your bench right next to Rod Smith.

 

Kickers	Team	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Jeff Wilkins	STL	at GB	4.7	1.8	8.3
Lawrence Tynes	KC	at ARI	3.8	2.0	7.5
Robbie Gould	CHI	vs BUF	2.8	2.8	7.8
Joe Nedney	SF	vs OAK	2.7	2.8	7.5
John Kasay	CAR	vs CLE	2.6	2.8	7.3
David Akers	PHI	vs DAL	2.3	2.8	6.3
John Carney	NO	vs TB	2.3	3.0	6.8
Josh Scobee	JAC	vs NYJ	2.1	3.0	6.3
Ryan Longwell	MIN	vs DET	1.9	3.5	6.8
John Hall	WAS	at NYG	1.8	3.3	5.8
Matt Stover	BAL	at DEN	1.6	4.0	6.3
Jason Elam	DEN	vs BAL	1.6	4.0	6.3
Dave Rayner	GB	vs STL	1.6	4.0	6.3
Jay Feely	NYG	vs WAS	1.5	3.8	5.8
Jason Hanson	DET	at MIN	1.5	4.0	6.0
Stephen Gostkowski	NE	vs MIA	1.4	4.3	6.0
Neil Rackers	ARI	vs KC	1.4	5.0	7.0
Nate Kaeding	SD	vs PIT	1.3	4.8	6.3
Adam Vinatieri	IND	vs TEN	1.3	6.0	7.8
Phil Dawson	CLE	at CAR	1.3	4.5	5.8
Mike Vanderjagt	DAL	at PHI	1.3	5.0	6.3
Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	at SF	1.2	4.5	5.5
Jeff Reed	PIT	at SD	1.2	5.0	5.8
Mike Nugent	NYJ	at JAC	0.9	5.5	4.8
Olindo Mare	MIA	at NE	0.8	6.5	5.5
Rian Lindell	BUF	at CHI	0.7	6.5	4.8
Matt Bryant	TB	at NO	0.5	6.0	3.3
Rob Bironas	TEN	at IND	0.5	7.5	3.5
Morten Andersen	ATL	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Shayne Graham	CIN	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kris Brown	HOU	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Josh Brown	SEA	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0

 
Start:
Robbie Gould, CHI (2.8 rating): Gould has been somewhat of the Rackers from 2005. He is on fire and the Chicago offense is clicking. He has yet to miss a Field Goal this season(13 for 13) and the Bears get to pounce on the Buffalo Bills at home. Start him with confidence this week.

 
Sit:
Sebastian Janikowski, OAK (1.2 rating): Janikowski has one of the best leg’s in the NFL, only problem is his team has trouble getting anywhere even close to his range. Oakland had a much better performance last week, and should have a decent one against the 49ers, but at this point, Oakland is the last team to put your trust in. Look elsewhere for a kicker this week.

 

Team Defense	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Chicago	vs BUF	9.0	1.0	9.0
Indianapolis	vs TEN	4.0	2.0	8.0
New England	vs MIA	3.9	2.0	7.8
Kansas City	at ARI	3.6	2.3	8.0
New Orleans	vs TB	3.2	2.3	7.3
San Francisco	vs OAK	2.3	2.5	5.8
Carolina	vs CLE	2.1	3.5	7.3
Jacksonville	vs NYJ	2.0	3.5	7.0
St. Louis	at GB	1.9	3.3	6.3
Baltimore	at DEN	1.8	4.3	7.8
San Diego	vs PIT	1.6	4.5	7.0
Minnesota	vs DET	1.4	4.3	6.0
Pittsburgh	at SD	1.2	5.3	6.3
Denver	vs BAL	1.2	4.8	5.5
New York Giants	vs WAS	1.2	5.0	5.8
Philadelphia	vs DAL	1.1	5.3	5.8
Washington	at NYG	1.0	5.3	5.3
Dallas	at PHI	0.9	5.3	4.8
New York Jets	at JAC	0.9	5.0	4.5
Tampa Bay	at NO	0.9	5.0	4.3
Detroit	at MIN	0.7	6.5	4.8
Oakland	at SF	0.7	5.8	4.0
Miami	at NE	0.6	6.8	4.3
Cleveland	at CAR	0.6	6.5	3.8
Buffalo	at CHI	0.5	6.5	3.5
Green Bay	vs STL	0.4	7.5	3.3
Arizona	vs KC	0.3	8.0	2.3
Tennessee	at IND	0.2	9.5	1.8
Atlanta	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Houston	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0
Seattle	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0

 
Start:
New Orleans (3.2 rating): New Orleans has been quite a surprise thus far. Their offense has some high powered weapons and their defense is no laughing matter. This week, they get to beat up on the fading Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are without their starting QB, Simms. Look for a great performance this week from their defense.

 
Sit:
Miami (0.6 rating): Miami’s defense was somewhat of a hot commodity to pick up earlier this year. We all thought their offense would be stellar and their defense wouldn’t have to be on the field as much. Obviously it hasn’t fallen that way. With Miami’s offensive struggles, their defensive personnel are the ones being relied on to win games and, as we have seen, that hasn’t been going too well. Going into the New England hornets nest this week doesn’t help much either. Let them take the week off and ride the bench.

 
Thanks to Alkaholik, dream_017, Kilroy1872, logan, mattb47, and Verdun Barbarians for submitting rankings this week, SwiperNoSwiping for compiling those rankings, and Alkaholik for writing this week's article.
 

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