Start & SitNovember 2, 2006

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Week 9

By Nick Hopkins

Fantasy owners are being eased out of the bye week period this week. A few fantasy studs such as Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith will be missing from fantasy lineups, but overall owners should have more options this week than they have had in a while. Of course, the end of bye weeks also signifies the start of the stretch run of the fantasy season. Are you ready to make the final push toward the playoffs? Get a little more prepared by reviewing the Cafe’s week 9 edition of Start & Sit!

Our revised system is based on two separate rankings: Risk and Reward. Each player or defense was given a statistical ranking for each of the two categories.

Risk is determined by anything that could negatively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as matchup, situation, and injuries.

Reward is determined by anything that could positively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as talent, matchup, and situation.

The Ranking for the two categories is as follows:

Risk: Score of 0 being the lowest risk, 10 being the highest risk.
Reward: Score of 0 being lowest reward, 10 being the highest reward.


Eli Manning – NYGvs HOU15.02.77.7
Michael Vick – ATLat DET15.03.08.0
Rex Grossman – CHIvs MIA15.03.08.0
Peyton Manning – INDat NE14.73.78.3
Marc Bulger – STLvs KC14.33.37.7
Tom Brady – NEvs IND14.03.77.7
Philip Rivers – SDvs CLE13.33.06.3
Brett Favre – GBat BUF13.04.37.3
Drew Brees – NOat TB12.73.76.3
Brad Johnson – MINat SF11.73.75.3
Tony Romo – DALat WAS11.75.06.7
Carson Palmer – CINat BAL11.74.76.3
Jon Kitna – DETvs ATL11.35.36.7
Damon Huard – KCat STL11.34.76.0
Steve McNair – BALvs CIN11.05.06.0
JP Losman – BUFvs GB10.74.75.3
Byron Leftwich – JACvs TEN10.35.35.7
Seneca Wallace – SEAat OAK10.35.35.7
Alex Smith – SFvs MIN10.05.35.3
Mark Brunell – WASvs DAL10.05.35.3
Jake Plummer – DENat PIT9.75.35.0
David Carr – HOUat NYG9.36.35.7
Vince Young – TENat JAC9.35.75.0
Bruce Gradkowski – TBvs NO8.76.35.0
Ben Roethlisberger – PITvs DEN8.37.05.3
Charlie Frye – CLEat SD8.06.34.3
Andrew Walter – OAKat SEA6.77.34.0
Joey Harrington – MIAat SEA6.37.74.0
Kyle Boller – BALvs CIN4.38.32.7
Charlie Batch – PITat SEA2.39.01.3
Daunte Culpepper – MIAat CHI0.39.70.0
Matt Hasselbeck – SEAvs OAK0.310.00.3
Matt Leinart – ARIBYE0.00.00.0
Jake Delhomme – CARBYE0.00.00.0
Chad Pennington – NYJBYE0.00.00.0
Donovan McNabb – PHIBYE0.00.00.0

Michael Vick, ATL (15.0 rating): Vick has quieted his critics with his recent performances: a four touchdown game in week 7, followed by three more scores in week 8, all through the air. The Falcons’ signal-caller is on a roll, and will face a Detroit defense that has surrendered the fourth most passing yards and the second most passing touchdowns in the NFL.

Seneca Wallace, SEA (10.3 rating): Wallace was a a surprisingly solid play last week, throwing for three touchdowns in his second game as a starter this year. However, you should not expect a repeat performance this week against a Raiders defense that has played well this year despite their poor record. Oakland is actually allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL, and totally shut down the Steelers in week 8.

Running BacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
LaDainian Tomlinson – SDvs CLE17.32.39.7
Larry Johnson – KCat STL16.32.79.0
Tiki Barber – NYGvs HOU15.33.38.7
Warrick Dunn – ATLat DET14.03.37.3
Thomas Jones – CHIvs MIA14.03.37.3
Fred Taylor – JACvs TEN14.04.08.0
Chester Taylor – MINat SF13.73.37.0
Steven Jackson – STLvs KC13.73.37.0
Willis McGahee – BUFvs GB13.34.07.3
Clinton Portis – WASvs DAL13.34.07.3
Julius Jones – DALat WAS12.74.37.0
Ahman Green – GBat BUF12.74.37.0
Kevin Jones – DETvs ATL12.04.76.7
Jamal Lewis – BALat CIN11.74.36.0
Corey Dillon – NEvs IND11.74.36.0
Maurice Jones-Drew – JACvs TEN11.74.76.3
Laurence Maroney – NEvs IND11.74.76.3
Deuce McAllister – NOat TB11.74.76.3
Rudi Johnson – CINat BAL11.35.36.7
Frank Gore – SFvs MIN11.35.36.7
Maurice Morris – SEAvs OAK11.04.75.7
Marion Barber – DALat WAS11.05.06.0
Joseph Addai – INDat NE11.05.06.0
Willie Parker – PITvs DEN11.05.06.0
Cadillac Williams – TBvs NO10.75.05.7
Wali Lundy – HOUat NYG10.35.35.7
Brandon Jacobs – NYGvs HOU10.35.35.7
Cedric Benson – CHIvs MIA10.35.05.3
Dominic Rhodes – INDat NE9.75.35.0
Mike Bell – DENat PIT9.76.05.7
Ronnie Brown – MIAat CHI9.76.05.7
Reggie Bush – NOat TB8.76.35.0
Travis Henry – TENat JAC8.76.35.0
Michael Turner – SDvs CLE8.36.34.7
Reuben Droughns – CLEat SD8.06.74.7
Vernand Morency – GBat BUF7.76.74.3
LaMont Jordan – OAKat SEA7.37.04.3
Ladell Betts – WASvs DAL7.07.04.0
Jerious Norwood – ATLat DET6.77.34.0
Tatum Bell – DENat PIT6.77.74.3
Lendale White – TENat JAC5.77.33.0
Chris Perry – CINat BAL5.77.73.3
Musa Smith – BALvs CIN4.77.72.3
Noah Herron – GBat BUF4.78.33.0
Ron Dayne – HOUat NYG4.78.33.0
Najeh Davenport – PITvs DEN4.38.32.7
Michael Robinson – SFvs MIN4.38.32.7
Justin Fargas – OAKat SEA4.08.02.0
Chris Brown – TENat JAC4.08.32.3
Samkon Gado – HOUat NYG3.78.72.3
Mike Anderson – BALvs CIN3.77.71.3
Jerome Harrison – CLEat SD2.79.01.7
Shaun Alexander – SEAvs OAK0.310.00.3
Edgerrin James – ARIBYE0.00.00.0
DeShaun Foster – CARBYE0.00.00.0
DeAngelo Williams – CARBYE0.00.00.0
Kevan Barlow – NYJBYE0.00.00.0
Cedric Houston – NYJBYE0.00.00.0
Leon Washington – NYJBYE0.00.00.0
Brian Westbrook – PHIBYE0.00.00.0
Correll Buckhalter – PHIBYE0.00.00.0

Chester Taylor, MIN (13.7 rating): Taylor did not have a good game last week against the Patriots, but he should be able to rebound this week against the 49ers. Chester has been very solid this season, going over 100 total yards four times, and should get ample opportunities to carry the ball against San Francisco.

Reggie Bush, NO (8.7 rating): Bush says his tweaked ankle will not keep him out of the game against the Buccaneers, but even if he plays he is a risky start for your fantasy team. He has not been very effective recently, even before he aggravated his ankle injury. I expect the Saints to use Deuce McAllister much more, as the Bucs have proven susceptible to between the tackle running. Unless you are playing in a PPR league leave Reggie on your bench.

Wide ReceiversOpponentRatingRiskReward
Torry Holt – STLvs KC15.32.78.0
Plaxico Burress – NYGvs HOU14.73.07.7
Roy Williams – DETvs ATL14.03.37.3
Terrell Owens – DALat WAS14.03.77.7
Darrell Jackson – SEAvs OAK14.03.77.7
Andre Johnson – HOUat NYG13.73.77.3
Marques Colston – NOat TB13.73.77.3
Reggie Wayne – INDat NE13.74.07.7
Javon Walker – DENat PIT13.33.77.0
Eddie Kennison – KCat STL13.33.06.3
Bernard Berrian – CHIvs MIA13.34.07.3
Donald Driver – GBat BUF13.03.76.7
Santana Moss – WASvs DAL13.04.07.0
Muhsin Muhammad – CHIvs MIA12.73.76.3
Marvin Harrison – INDat NE12.74.06.7
Antonio Bryant – SFvs MIN12.74.06.7
Chad Johnson – CINat BAL12.74.37.0
TJ Houshmandzadeh – CINat BAL12.74.77.3
Isaac Bruce – STLvs KC12.33.76.0
Doug Gabriel – NEvs IND12.04.36.3
Deion Branch – SEAvs OAK11.74.36.0
Lee Evans – BUFvs GB11.74.76.3
Hines Ward – PITvs DEN11.74.76.3
Terry Glenn – DALat WAS11.34.76.0
Reggie Williams – JACvs TEN11.34.76.0
Troy Williamson – MINat SF11.34.76.0
Eric Parker – SDvs CLE11.04.05.0
Amani Toomer – NYGvs HOU11.04.35.3
Joe Horn – NOat TB11.05.36.3
Rod Smith – DENat PIT10.74.35.0
Derrick Mason – BALvs CIN10.75.05.7
Travis Taylor – MINat SF10.75.36.0
Michael Jenkins – ATLat DET10.35.35.7
Greg Jennings – GBat BUF10.36.06.3
Mike Furrey – DETvs ATL10.05.35.3
Troy Brown – NEvs IND10.05.35.3
Reche Caldwell – NEvs IND10.05.35.3
Randy Moss – OAKat SEA10.06.06.0
Joey Galloway – TBvs NO9.76.05.7
Chris Henry – CINat BAL9.76.36.0
Keenan McCardell – SDvs CLE9.35.04.3
Sammie Parker – KCat STL9.35.75.0
Chad Jackson – NEvs IND9.05.74.7
Braylon Edwards – CLEat SD9.06.75.7
Eric Moulds – HOUat NYG8.76.04.7
Matt Jones – JACvs TEN8.76.35.0
Nate Burleson – SEAvs OAK8.35.74.0
Antwaan Randle El – WASvs DAL8.36.04.3
Mark Clayton – BALvs CIN8.36.75.0
Marcus Robinson – MINat SF8.37.05.3
Santonio Holmes – PITvs DEN8.06.04.0
Nate Washington – PITvs DEN8.06.04.0
Roscoe Parrish – BUFvs GB8.07.05.0
Chris Chambers – MIAat CHI8.07.75.7
Arnaz Battle – SFvs MIN7.36.33.7
Ernest Wilford – JACvs TEN7.37.04.3
Josh Reed – BUFvs GB7.07.04.0
Michael Clayton – TBvs NO7.07.04.0
Joe Jurevicius – CLEat SD7.07.34.3
Drew Bennett – TENat JAC7.07.34.3
Roddy White – ATLat DET6.77.34.0
Ashley Lelie – ATLat DET6.37.33.7
Brandon Stokely – INDat NE6.37.33.7
Brandon Lloyd – WASvs DAL6.37.33.7
Dennis Northcutt – CLEat SD5.77.73.3
Marty Booker – MIAat CHI5.38.33.7
Wes Welker – MIAat CHI5.38.33.7
Bobby Engram – SEAvs OAK4.78.02.7
David Givens – TENat JAC4.38.32.7
Anquan Boldin – ARIBYE0.00.00.0
Larry Fitzgerald – ARIBYE0.00.00.0
Bryant Johnson – ARIBYE0.00.00.0
Steve Smith – CARBYE0.00.00.0
Keyshawn Johnson – CARBYE0.00.00.0
Laveranues Coles – NYJBYE0.00.00.0
Jerricho Cotchery – NYJBYE0.00.00.0
Justin McCareins – NYJBYE0.00.00.0
Donte’ Stallworth – PHIBYE0.00.00.0
Reggie Brown – PHIBYE0.00.00.0
Hank Baskett – PHIBYE0.00.00.0

Andre Johnson, HOU (13.7 rating): Johnson has been a reception machine this year, recording at least eight catches in each of his last five games, which is incredibly consistent for a young player that was criticized for his streakiness the last few years. Johnson should be able to continue his impressive 2006 performance this week against a Giants secondary that is average at best. New York’s corners are either inexperienced (Corey Webster) or past their prime (Sam Madison). AJ should have an advantage regardless of what side of the field he lines up on.

Chris Chambers, MIA (8.0 rating): Chambers has been extremely frustrating for fantasy players this season, many of which had very high hopes for him. Not only has this not been Chris’ breakout season, he seems to have regressed significantly. Daunte Culpepper’s injury and poor play certainly did not help matters. If there is going to be a bounce-back week for Chambers, I would not expect it to be this week against the dominating Chicago defense.

Tight EndsOpponentRatingRiskReward
Alge Crumpler – ATLat DET16.02.08.0
Antonio Gates – SDvs CLE14.73.07.7
Desmond Clark – CHIvs MIA14.32.77.0
Jeremy Shockey – NYGvs HOU14.32.36.7
Tony Gonzalez – KCat STL13.73.37.0
Todd Heap – BALvs CIN13.33.77.0
Jason Witten – DALat WAS13.33.77.0
Ben Watson – NEvs IND12.33.76.0
George Wrighster – JACvs TEN11.74.05.7
Kellen Winslow – CLEat SD11.34.76.0
Chris Cooley – WASvs DAL11.04.75.7
Dallas Clark – INDat NE10.75.05.7
Jermaine Wiggins – MINat SF10.34.75.0
Bubba Franks – GBat BUF9.75.35.0
Owen Daniels – HOUat NYG9.75.75.3
Jeremy Stevens – SEAvs OAK9.35.34.7
David Martin – GBat BUF9.35.04.3
Eric Johnson – SFvs MIN9.05.74.7
Randy McMichael – MIAat CHI8.76.04.7
Marcus Pollard – DETvs ATL8.36.04.3
Heath Miller – PITvs DEN8.36.04.3
Alex Smith – TBvs NO8.05.73.7
Stephen Alexander – DENat PIT7.36.74.0
Itula Mili – SEAvs OAK7.06.03.0
Daniel Graham – NEvs IND7.06.33.3
Courtney Anderson – OAKat SEA7.06.33.3
Bryan Fletcher – INDat NE7.06.73.7
Reggie Kelly – CINat BAL6.76.33.0
John Gilmore – CHIvs MIA6.76.02.7
Ben Troupe – TENat JAC6.77.03.7
Anthony Becht – TBvs NO6.36.73.0
Dan Campbell – DETvs ATL6.06.72.7
Ben Utecht – INDat NE6.06.72.7
Jeb Putzier – HOUat NYG6.07.03.0
Bo Scaife – TENat JAC6.07.03.0
Mike Sellers – WASvs DAL6.07.33.3
Adam Bergen – ARIBYE0.00.00.0
Kris Mangum – CARBYE0.00.00.0
Chris Baker – NYJBYE0.00.00.0
LJ Smith – PHIBYE0.00.00.0

Kellen Winslow, CLE (11.3 rating): Winslow has played very well in his first real NFL season, developing a great relationship with young quarterback Charlie Frye. “The Soulja” is on pace for 90 catches, 900 yards, and 7 TDs, very impressive numbers for a tight end. He has quickly become an every-week fantasy starter.

Heath Miller, PIT (8.3 rating): Miller has never racked up big yardage totals, but his numbers thus far this season have been a little concerning. He has not put up more than 34 yards since the first week of the season, and has only one touchdown in that span to make up for it. His matchup this week against Denver is not favorable either.

Jeff Wilkins – STLvs KC14.03.37.3
Jay Feely – NYGvs HOU13.72.76.3
Lawrence Tynes – KCat STL13.73.06.7
Nate Kaeding – SDvs CLE13.73.06.7
Robbie Gould – CHIvs MIA13.73.37.0
Adam Vinatieri – INDat NE13.33.36.7
Morten Andersen – ATLat DET13.03.36.3
Josh Brown – SEAvs OAK13.03.76.7
Mike Vanderjagt – DALat WAS12.73.76.3
Jason Elam – DENat PIT12.73.76.3
Shayne Graham – CINat BAL12.74.06.7
Dave Rayner – GBat BUF12.73.36.0
Ryan Longwell – MINat SF12.33.76.0
John Carney – NOat TB12.33.76.0
Stephen Gostkowski – NEvs IND12.34.06.3
Josh Scobee – JACvs TEN12.03.35.3
Rian Lindell – BUFvs GB11.74.05.7
Jason Hanson – DETvs ATL11.74.05.7
Matt Bryant – TBvs NO11.74.05.7
Matt Stover – BALvs CIN11.34.05.3
Phil Dawson – CLEat SD10.34.75.0
Jeff Reed – PITvs DEN10.35.05.3
Nick Novak – WASvs DAL10.05.05.0
Joe Nedney – SFvs MIN9.75.75.3
Sebastian Janikowski – OAKat SEA9.35.34.7
Kris Brown – HOUat NYG9.05.74.7
Olindo Mare – MIAat CHI8.76.04.7
Rob Bironas – TENat JAC8.36.34.7
Michael Koenen – ATLat DET3.39.02.3
Neil Rackers – ARIBYE0.00.00.0
John Kasay – CARBYE0.00.00.0
Mike Nugent – NYJBYE0.00.00.0
David Akers – PHIBYE0.00.00.0

Jay Feely, NYG (13.7 rating): Feely will probably be a popular free agency pick-up this week, as he faces the Texans defense and can be found on the waiver wire in many leagues. He should make for a good start this week.

Phil Dawson, CLE (10.3 rating): In case you were considering Dawson as a bye week fill in, keep in mind that despite getting three chances at field goals last week, he could not make the most of them, missing a 26 yard attempt. The Chargers defense he will face this week has only given up five field goals on the season, good for second fewest in the league.

Team DefenseOpponentRatingRiskReward
Chicagovs MIA17.31.79.0
Jacksonvillevs TEN14.72.77.3
Washingtonvs DAL14.03.07.0
New York Giantsvs HOU14.03.37.3
Pittsburghvs DEN13.73.77.3
Baltimorevs CIN13.34.37.7
San Franciscovs MIN12.34.06.3
Minnesotaat SF12.34.77.0
Oaklandat SEA12.04.06.0
Denverat PIT12.04.76.7
New Orleansat TB11.74.76.3
Dallasat WAS11.34.76.0
Atlantaat DET11.05.36.3
Cincinnatiat BAL10.75.05.7
Green Bayat BUF10.35.35.7
New Englandvs IND10.35.35.7
Seattlevs OAK10.35.05.3
Indianapolisat NE10.05.05.0
St. Louisvs KC9.75.35.0
Tennesseeat JAC9.36.35.7
Buffalovs GB9.36.05.3
Tampa Bayvs NO8.35.74.0
Kansas Cityat STL8.36.04.3
San Diegovs CLE8.36.04.3
Detroitvs ATL7.77.04.7
Miamiat CHI6.37.33.7
Houstonat NYG5.77.33.0
Clevelandat SD5.37.73.0
New York JetsBYE0.00.00.0

Minnesota (12.3 rating): The Vikings defense has been solid all season, so if they are available in your league they are definately worth a look this week, as they play the inexperienced 49ers offense. The Vikes should have a much easier time this week than they did last week against the Patriots.

Indianapolis (10.0 rating): Indianapolis has been a matchup play at best this season, and this is not one of the matchups you will want to use them for. The Patriots offense has been picking up steam as the season has gone on, and after carving up a good Minnesota defense, they will look to do the same to an Indy defense that had some trouble with Denver last week.

Special thanks to lmcjaho, dream_017, Kilroy1872, knapplc, logan, mattb47 and SwiperNoSwiping for their rankings and involvement this week.
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