Picking From the Bottom of the Barrel, Part 2

While it’s true that fantasy football involves a great deal of luck, it’s also safe to say that in order to consistently be a successful owner, you have to do your share of homework. Going into a draft having read up on off-season personnel changes and late-season surges by young players can help give you a step up on the competition. Most of the players I listed in part one of this two-part series were not people considered to be at the top of their game in 2004. However, summertime research helped some lucky drafters select these players before their stock peaked in 2005.

The first, and likely the most obvious sleeper on this list, was our 57th overall pick, Larry Johnson. Johnson became a fantasy darling in 2004, taking over for Priest Holmes, who bowed out early from a knee injury. Despite losing Holmes, Johnson and the Chiefs’ running game never missed a beat. The former Nitanny Lion proceeded to tear off three 100-yard rushing performances and eleven touchdowns in the final six games of the ’04 campaign. As the 2005 season approached, Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil announced veteran Priest Holmes as his official starter. Because Holmes was rapidly approaching the ripe old age of 32, knowledge of his injury history and some casual observation suggested that Johnson could be a strong sleeper candidate during the 2005 season. I actually picked Johnson in all three of my money leagues just waiting for Holmes to go down. When Holmes finally succumbed to head and neck injuries sustained during an October contest with the Chargers, Johnson went from fantasy sleeper to fantasy superstar. Most people were able to nab Johnson in the fourth or fifth round of their fantasy drafts, which was a great value considering Johnson would end up finishing the 2005 season with nine straight 100-yard games and 17 total touchdowns.

While Johnson’s likelihood for success was somewhat easy to predict heading into 2005, Willie Parker’s rise to stardom was less obvious to forecast. With the 2004 season coming to a close, the 14-1 Steelers were heading into a meaningless contest with the upstart Buffalo Bills. With home field advantage already locked up, Pittsburgh benched many of its starters, including running back Jerome Bettis. With Bettis on the bench, undrafted rookie Willie Parker ran for 102 yards on 19 carries. Parker’s impressive performance came at a time when the Bills were fighting desperately for a final playoff spot in the AFC. Even more impressive, Parker’s stat line produced only the third 100- yard rushing performance recorded against the Buffalo rush defense in 2004.

Most people wouldn’t think Parker’s one game in the spotlight would lead to future starting time in Pittsburgh’s already crowded backfield, but there was more opportunity ahead for Fast Willie. Before many fantasy leagues drafted for the 2005 season, the Steelers stable of running backs was bitten by the injury bug. Both Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley suffered off-season injuries that would prevent them from starting the 2005 season. Some drafters didn’t think Parker would start more than one week since there was a chance one of the Steelers’ veteran running backs would be returning in week two. Still, taking a late draft flier on Parker would end up being a great investment. I was fortunate enough to draft Parker in one of my leagues and figured if he could just start the season hot, the aging duo of Bettis and Staley might take a backseat to the youngster in future contests. That’s exactly was happened, and Parker’s week one performance in 2005 produced 209 total yards and a touchdown. The game enabled the Steelers to continue starting Parker since the coaching staff had confidence he would continue to thrive.

Confidence isn’t exactly what most fantasy owners think of when it comes to oft-injured Jaguars running back Fred Taylor. The former Florida Gator certainly has missed his share of time over the years, leaving fantasy drafters wondering if Taylor’s upside is worth risking a third-round pick. Instead of taking Taylor early, try taking his backup late. When the Jaguars drafted Greg Jones in the second round of the 2004 NFL Draft, many people thought Taylor’s time at starting running back was steadily ticking away. Turns out that may be the case. Fragile Freddy reclaimed his injury-prone title in 2005 by missing several starts, adding to his total of nearly 30 games missed since 1999. When Taylor sat out four contests, Jones tallied 364 yards on the ground and added three touchdowns. With Taylor now 30 years old, Jones may very well see more starting time for the Jags and should be available late in your fantasy draft.

Another sleeper I like is Broncos running back Ron Dayne. A Thanksgiving Day feast on the Dallas run defense gave many people a glimpse of what the New York Giants hoped they were getting when they drafted Dayne 11th overall in 2000. In a game that boasted a 55-yard jaunt by the former Heisman winner, the Broncos narrowly defeated the Giants 24-21 and gave the Broncos running game some hope for the future. Now departed from Denver is aging bruiser, Mike Anderson, leaving the door open for the former Wisconsin Badger. Though Tatum Bell is still presently in the Broncos’ stable of tailbacks, it could be Dayne who ends up with the biggest stats next season. Bell’s inability to stay healthy and lack of discipline have hindered his progress thus far. Combine that with Dayne’s punishing downhill running style, and it’s possible the former bust might be ready to bust out in 2006.

While Dayne’s Turkey Day performance in 2005 helped him make a name for himself, a few other players made their mark over a longer stretch of time. One such player was Cincinnati’s starting quarterback, Carson Palmer. Palmer’s final three games of the 2004 campaign were his best. The former Trojan threw for nine touchdowns over that three-game stretch, doubling his totals from his first ten games. Two of those games were against a pair of the NFL’s stingiest defenses, Baltimore and New England. Now, a late-season hot streak doesn’t always mean a player will follow through with stellar numbers the following year. However, it does indicate that fantasy owners need to take notice since similar statistical anomalies have proven to be good omens.

Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck enjoyed a similar hot spell during the 2002 season, only to follow it up by posting the best fantasy numbers of his NFL career in 2003. The same can be said for Panther quarterback Jake Delhomme. Though his numbers were pedestrian for much of the 2003 season, Delhomme turned it on during the postseason with five scores and just one pick. The following year, Jake racked up a career-best 30 touchdowns and threw for 3,886 yards. That said, you should probably start taking notice of which players started to perform better as the 2005 season progressed.

One such player to take notice of is Jaguars quarterback Byron Leftwich. Leftwich took an early exit in 2005 after suffering a broken foot in a week 12 contest against the Arizona Cardinals. Though his numbers before the injury weren’t comparable to the elite tier of fantasy gunslingers, they were very promising. The Jags starter tossed 15 touchdowns and just five picks in ten starts, and only once did he throw more interceptions than touchdowns. In fact, during the three games preceding the Arizona contest, Leftwich threw five touchdowns and zero interceptions. The marks might be indicative of things to come and should warrant some extra attention on your league’s draft day. Combine that with the addition of budding wide receiver Matt Jones, and the Jaguars passing offense could be ready to take the next step in 2006.

Another player who might be ready to take the next step is Lions quarterback Josh McCown. Should the former Cardinal snag the starting job in Detroit, he could become a strong candidate for a backup role on your fantasy football team. McCown’s never been a long-term starter in the NFL, but he has shown a great deal of promise when given the opportunity. In six starts last season, McCown threw the ball 233 times, averaging just over 38 passes per game. His nine touchdowns in those starts project nice numbers if he can play for a full season, and with the addition of offensive mastermind Mike Martz, the Detroit passing game could flourish. Martz was able to successfully mold fantasy superstars out of former sleeper quarterbacks Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger. Combine the addition of Martz with a deep and talented receiving corps, and McCown could very well be the next Martz project to take off.

Taking off is exactly what Titans quarterback Billy Volek did towards the end of the 2004 season. Playing in place of Steve McNair, Volek made a star out of wide receiver Drew Bennett and helped rescue fantasy owners in desperate need of a boost at quarterback. During Volek’s eight starts in 2004, he tossed an amazing 18 touchdowns and just seven picks. With McNair likely on the outs in Tennessee, Volek should have ample opportunity to take the helm for the Titans. Don’t sweat the fact that Tennessee is targeting a quarterback in the 2006 NFL Draft; Volek will still have the edge over a rookie. However, because there will still likely be at least some uncertainty about who will win the Titans’ starting job going into the upcoming season, Volek could come on the cheap.

Because I’m mentioning Billy Volek as a fantasy sleeper for 2006, it’s safe to say Tennessee wideout Drew Bennett should also get some love from drafters. In December and January of 2004, when Volek was starting, Drew Bennett caught nine touchdowns in just five games. Is he likely to repeat such lofty numbers? I wouldn’t count on it. However, the undeniable chemistry between the two could make for a nice combination should Bennett be available late in your fantasy draft. If Volek starts the entire year, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Bennett on the end of double-digit scores for the season.

Another reciever you might be able to grab late in a draft is Eagles second year wideout Reggie Brown. The rookie led Philly with 571 yards receiving and four touchdowns, notwithstanding the now departed Terrell Owens. With Donovan McNabb healthy, Brown caught five passes for 94 yards in week 9, including a 56-yard score. Brown finished the 2005 season with a seven-catch game for 77 yards and a pair of scores against a tough Washington secondary. With McNabb back in the driver’s seat and Terrell Owens no longer in town, Reggie Brown should be able to secure the number one receiver spot on the Eagles’ depth chart, but should be available towards the middle to late rounds of your draft.

Though Drew Carter will likely be a bit buried on the Panthers’ depth chart, I wouldn’t count him out as a deep sleeper candidate for the upcoming season. Carter outgained Keary Colbert in the last six games of the season, postseason included. The second-year wide receiver caught nine passes for 234 yards and a pair of scores, dwarfing Colbert’s five catches for 51 yards over the same stretch. Though Carolina just signed Keyshawn Johnson, Carter should be a strong contender for the team’s number three wide receiver position in 2006. Carter has blistering 4.36 speed in the 40 and should be able to use that acceleration to exploit single coverage in the slot position. With Steve Smith and Keyshawn garnering much attention from defensive backs, Carter could be a very nice fantasy backup. Chances are, he won’t be drafted in a standard 15-round draft, but he’s someone to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Though wide receivers have a large role on your fantasy team, it’s the tight end position that’s been stealing the show the past few years. We’ve seen players like Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Chris Cooley become fantasy studs, but there are still more budding stars waiting to be plucked from obscurity. One such player is New Orleans Saints tight end Zach Hilton. With Aaron Brooks and Todd Bouman throwing the pigskin, Hilton enjoyed a nice run late in the season. Five games in December and January produced 21 catches for 255 yards for an impressive 12.1 yards per catch. The addition of former Chargers quarterback Drew Brees should help elevate Hilton’s game when you consider how much Brees utilized the tight end position in San Diego. Brees helped make a star out of Antonio Gates. Perhaps he’ll do the same for Zach Hilton.

Greg Roumbanis is a Cafe member who can often be found helping fellow members in the Start/Sit forum. Greg’s handle at the Cafe is Dr. Duran Duran.

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