Spotlight Game: Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

This will be the Colts’ first “real” game since they lost to San Diego at home in week 15. It will be interesting to see how the Colts respond to the long layoff and the lofty expectations that are set for them. The Steelers, coming off of their win over Cincinnati, are hitting their stride at the right time. However, can the Steelers pull off an improbable playoff road victory in the RCA Dome?

Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger: If Pittsburgh wants to win, Roethlisberger will keep his throws to a minimum. Look for him to be primarily handing the ball off throughout the game. Therefore, I don’t expect big numbers from him, and, ironically, this could be the key to a Pittsburgh victory. Look for him to only throw when he needs to or when they feel like throwing a play-action curveball at the Indianapolis defense. Still, Roethlisberger should throw enough (especially late in the game if they are behind) to chalk up 180 yards passing, a touchdown, and an interception.

Pittsburgh RBs: Parker should get the bulk of the carries in this game. Surprisingly, he was the least effective of the Steeler running backs last week against Cincinnati. Jerome Bettis was able to pound his way to 52 yards on 10 carries, and Verron Haynes had 46 yards on just three tries. However, Parker was held to a disappointing 38 yards on 16 carries. He could have another tough time on Sunday. The Colts defense is known for its speed, which matches up well against Parker’s biggest strength. Parker should have a tough time finding holes on Sunday, and that could force the Steelers to rely more on their bigger backs. Parker should go for 50-55 yards on 17 carries. Bettis could see a few more carries outside of his usual short yardage and goal line duties. To change the pace, I expect Bettis to have 8-10 carries for 30 yards and a touchdown. The same can be said for Verron Haynes. If the above two running backs are ineffective, Haynes could see an increase in his carries as well. I’ll chalk Haynes down for 20-25 yards on four or five tries, but he could see more work.

Pittsburgh WRs: Ward may not get the chances that he is used to in this offense. Besides his short touchdown catch last week, he was a non-factor with only two catches for a measly 10 yards. He will almost certainly get more looks than that on Sunday, but I am not expecting a breakout performance. Ward should work the middle of the field enough to register 60 yards on six grabs with a red zone look. Antwaan Randle El is more dangerous on special teams, but he will make his presence felt at wide receiver as well. He should have a day similar to Ward, working the middle of the field for short and intermediate routes. Randle El will have four catches for 40 yards. Cedrick Wilson is the wildcard here. He had over 100 yards last week and was the beneficiary of a trick play, which was the beginning of the end for the Bengals. Wilson has the best chance of making a big play, but I’ll say he goes for 20 yards on two grabs.

Heath Miller: Miller has hit a comfort zone at the tight end spot. He is now being looked to down the field fairly often. With a 50-yard catch against at Minnesota in week 15 and a 43-yarder against Detroit in week 17, Miller has proven that he can go down the field. Miller could be looked to in this game, especially in red zone situations. I think Miller will go for three receptions, 40 yards, and a touchdown.

Defense: Don’t expect too much from this defense. Although they have been solid, they could be in over their head here. However, we will get to see if Joey Porter can back up his comments he made about the Colts’ offense earlier in the week. I would only expect a sack and one turnover for the Steelers. James Farrior is perhaps Pittsburgh’s most consistent producer with 119 total tackles during the regular season. He should be in the mix for another 7-10 today. Larry Foote had over 100 tackles in the regular season, and he was able to register seven tackles and half a sack in last week’s game at Cincinnati. Don’t be surprised if he has a similar day on Sunday.

Indianapolis

Peyton Manning: Manning was effective in his last outing against the Steelers, registering 245 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on 25 attempts. He did this despite the fact that James basically carried the load in the second half. On Sunday, I think that he will throw more often, and he should end up with numbers that rival his last performance. I see him going 23/32 for 280 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.

Edgerrin James: The Steelers rushing defense ranks third in the league (giving up around 85 yards per game), so it will be tough for James to find a hole. However, Manning should get fancy enough at the line that he should be able to get some yardage. He did have 129 yards on 24 carries in his last game against Pittsburgh, so he has had success against them. He shouldn’t be as effective this time out, but I expect him to score near the goal line. James will rush 21 times for 80 yards and two short yardage touchdowns.

Indianapolis WRs: Marvin Harrison has not scored a touchdown in eight of his nine career playoff games, but I expect this trend to end. Harrison had an 80-yard TD catch on the first play from scrimmage in his last outing against Steelers. Although I am not expecting a repeat performance of that play, Harrison should be in for a good day. Harrison should go for 80 yards and a touchdown. Reggie Wayne should also play a major role. He has just put the finishing touches on his second career 1000-yard season. This success should carry over into the playoffs. Wayne should have a 90-yard day along with a trip to pay dirt. Stokley, as always, will function as the third option. Still, he should be good for about 40 yards receiving.

Indianapolis TEs: Both Dallas Clark and Bryan Fletcher could play integral roles in this game. Fletcher saw increased time as the season began to wind down, so both could see some balls thrown their way. Clark’s last extensive action came against San Diego (three receptions, 45 yards, and a touchdown) about a month ago, so he should be well-rested and ready to go on Sunday. Both Fletcher and Clark were factors in their last meeting with Pittsburgh, combining for five catches while splitting time at the spot. I like Clark to record 30 yards on two grabs while Fletcher should find a seam for a 10-yard catch or two.

Defense: The key for the Colts defense in this game is their matchup against Pittsburgh’s powerful offense line. Since the Colts use speed on defense as opposed to power, Indianapolis will have to try to scheme around Pittsburgh’s strength. I am looking for 2-3 sacks and a turnover from this unit. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have combined for 22.5 sacks this year, so there is a good chance that Roethlisberger will be scrambling away from them at some point in the game. Gary Brackett and Cato June, who each had over 100 tackles during the regular season, will be responsible for shutting down the running game once they reach the second line of defenders.

Sleeper

Raheem Brock: Brock is often lost in the shuffle because of the attention that Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis receive. However, Brock is a steadying force on the line, and he can get to the quarterback as well. While Freeney and Mathis get all the attention, Brock has quietly registered 44 total tackles, four forced fumbles, and 6.5 sacks on the year. He may see chances to make plays on Sunday if Freeney and/or Mathis are doubled. He will not only be responsible for putting pressure on Roethlisberger, but he will also have to contain Parker when he bounces to the outside. Don’t be surprised if Brock is in constant pursuit of the ball carrier on Sunday.

Matchup to Watch

Pittsburgh RBs vs. Indianapolis’ front seven: This should decide the game. Pittsburgh must stay in the game early, which is something that they didn’t do in their last outing against the Colts (Colts scored on their first play from scrimmage). If the Colts jump out early and force the Steelers to pass, you can essentially close the book on the game. During the regular season, the Colts ranked 16th in the league in rushing defense, giving up 110 yards per game on the ground. However, in their week eleven clash, the Colts were able to hold the Steelers to 86 yards on 25 tries. The Steelers will need to establish the run early and keep the Colts’ defense on the field. Pittsburgh is 12-0 this season when they outrush their opponent and 0-5 when they lose the rushing battle. Given that statistic, Pittsburgh will need to run for their playoff lives on Sunday.

Prediction

Pittsburgh will have to play better than they did in week 11 against Indianapolis. In that game, they were manhandled in every facet of the game as the Colts cruised to a 26-7 victory. Besides that loss, however, Pittsburgh has had only one other road blemish all year (week 10 loss at Baltimore). Roethlisberger has had a passer rating of 110.5 on the road this season, and he has thrown only three interceptions in these games. On the other hand, the Colts come off a week of rest and should be ready for the Steelers. In his past two home playoff games, Peyton Manning has thrown for nine touchdowns and only ten total incompletions. Pittsburgh has not won two playoff games in the same season since 1995, and they will be hard pressed to do it on Indianapolis’ turf. Indianapolis 28, Pittsburgh 20

 
Dave McGrath hopes to eventually turn his Communication major into a full-time sportwriting career. He can be found posting as dave416 in the Cafe forums.
 

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