Sleeper Watch

I know what you’re thinking: “An Oakland Raider? The same Oakland Raiders that went 2-14 last season?” But as history has shown us time and time again, horrible real life teams can yield significant fantasy value. And while I think the Raiders offense will be almost as anemic as last year, if you look closely there is a lot to like about Jerry Porter. He heads the list of a group of players I call “lottery tickets”. They will not cost you much on draft day, but could (the key word being could) pay huge dividends.

But enough speaking in generalities, let’s get down to the numbers. Porter came on strong as a reliable option for the Raiders in ’04 and ’05, posting 900+ yards each season and 14 total touchdowns. He appeared poised to take a next step forward in the offense. With Randy Moss drawing all the double teams, it seemed like a no-brainer that Porter could post solid numbers.

However, due to a dispute with the Raiders coaching staff, Porter had an abysmal 2007. He rarely saw the starting lineup because of continued disputes with Art Shell, and wound up finishing with just one catch for nineteen yards on the season! Positively ugly.

But the sun appears to be peeking through the clouds for Porter. Jerry showed up to camp in shape and with an attitude, wanting to put last year’s failures behind him. He figures to be the number one receiver by default in this offense. Remember, Randy Moss (who was plagued by nagging injuries and playing at half speed) still finished with 553 yards and five touchdowns last season.

Whether the newly signed Daunte Culpepper, strong-armed rookie JaMarcus Russell, or the terrible twosome of Josh McCown or Andrew Walter wind up starting under center, the passing game has nowhere to go but up. Consider Randy Moss’s 2006 numbers to be Porter’s floor, and draft him based on his tremendous upside potential.

There are also reasons to like the Raiders offense as a whole. Mercifully, Art Shell is now gone, replaced by the young Lane Kiffin. Lane was the wide receivers coach at USC before accepting this position, so there is reason to believe that he will be able to bolster the passing game. He already ran an NFL-style offense at USC, so his learning curve will likely be small. He also has experience dealing with troubled receivers. Mike Williams and Dwayne Jarrett are both products of his coaching at USC. All of these things point to a solid year as a WR3 for Porter. And with an ADP of 111th overall, he stands a good chance of equaling the production of wide receivers taken five rounds earlier. Take a stab at him in the last few rounds of your draft, and hope that you scratch off a winning ticket.

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