Start & SitNovember 8, 2007


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Week 10

By Nick Hopkins

There were likely a lot of high scoring fantasy games last week due to some big numbers being put up around the league. The first thing that stands out is super-rookie Adrian Peterson’s record-breaking 296 rushing yards and three scores to help the Vikings topple the previously-streaking Chargers. Fellow rookie Marshawn Lynch didn’t have a bad day himself, recording 153 yards on the ground against the Bengals. Clinton Portis got his first 100-yard game in an overtime win against the Jets (196 yards to be precise). Drew Brees continued his hot streak with 445 yards through the air. Derek Anderson, Quinn Gray, and Brett Favre also had over 350 yards passing (Sounds like a game of “one of these things is not like the other”…) And how about Lee Evans and Marques Colston, two stud receivers from last season that were all but left for dead earlier this year, coming through with 165 and 159 yards, respectively? The Cafe’s Week 10 Start & Sit hopes to help you get some big scorers into your lineup this week! (And your weekly reminder: The Patriots, Texans, Jets, and Buccaneers have off in Week 10.)

Our system is based on two separate rankings: Risk and Reward. Each player or defense was given a statistical ranking for each of the two categories.

Risk is determined by anything that could negatively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as matchup, situation, and injuries.

Reward is determined by anything that could positively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as talent, matchup, and situation.

The Ranking for the two categories is as follows:

Risk: Score of 0 being the lowest risk, 10 being the highest risk.
Reward: Score of 0 being lowest reward, 10 being the highest reward.

 

QuarterbacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
Drew Brees – NOvs STL16.82.08.8
Ben Roethlisberger – PITvs CLE16.42.38.6
Peyton Manning – INDat SD15.82.98.6
Tony Romo – DALat NYG15.62.78.3
Matt Hasselbeck – SEAvs SF15.22.77.9
Brett Favre – GBvs MIN14.43.47.8
Jon Kitna – DETat ARI14.23.57.8
JP Losman – BUFat MIA13.64.07.6
Eli Manning – NYGvs DAL13.43.77.1
Donovan McNabb – PHIat WAS12.94.27.1
Derek Anderson – CLEat PIT12.94.67.5
Carson Palmer – CINat BAL12.55.07.6
Marc Bulger – STLat NO12.04.86.7
Kurt Warner – ARIvs DET11.55.16.6
Brian Griese – CHIat OAK11.34.65.9
Philip Rivers – SDvs IND10.85.36.1
Damon Huard – KCvs DEN10.54.85.2
Vince Young – TENvs JAC10.25.45.6
Jay Cutler – DENat KC10.25.86.0
Jason Campbell – WASvs PHI9.85.75.5
Cleo Lemon – MIAvs BUF9.25.85.0
Josh McCown – OAKvs CHI9.05.84.8
Vinny Testaverde – CARvs ATL9.06.45.4
Joey Harrington – ATLat CAR8.95.74.7
Steve McNair – BALvs CIN8.96.45.3
Alex Smith – SFat SEA8.56.14.5
Quinn Gray – JACat TEN8.36.54.8
Kyle Boller – BALvs CIN8.06.94.9
Tarvaris Holcomb – MINat GB7.26.23.4
Brooks Bollinger – MINat GB6.87.13.8
Byron Leftwich – ATLat CAR5.87.13.0

 
Start:
Brett Favre, GB (14.4 rating): The Packers keep on winning, and they keep on relying on Brett Favre’s right arm to get them those wins. Favre went over 300 yards passing for the fifth time in eight games last week to help the Pack beat Kansas City. Greg Jennings seems to have really established himself after showing flashes during his rookie season, giving Brett a second big play threat after Donald Driver. Green Bay hosts a weak secondary this week in Minnesota (31st overall against the pass). And with the way Adrian Peterson is running the ball, the Packers may have to throw a lot to keep up.

Sit:
Phillip Rivers, SD (10.8 rating): Rivers’ fantasy production has been hit or miss so far this year. He has four games with two or more touchdown passes, but he had zero touchdown passes in the other four. This week is likely to be another “miss” week, as Phillip and the Chargers are matched up against a Colts’ defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL against the pass. Heck, the Colts even made Tom Brady look human last week, holding him under a 100.0 QB Rating for the first time all year. If you have been platooning Rivers with another QB this season, this might be a good week to sit him.
 

Running BacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
Willie Parker – PITvs CLE16.82.08.8
Adrian Peterson – MINat GB16.62.69.2
LaDainian Tomlinson – SDvs IND16.22.78.9
Marshawn Lynch – BUFat MIA16.02.48.4
Brian Westbrook – PHIat WAS15.92.78.6
Joseph Addai – INDat SD15.53.38.8
Reggie Bush – NOvs STL15.52.68.2
Willis McGahee – BALvs CIN14.43.57.9
Clinton Portis – WASvs PHI14.23.67.8
Kevin Jones – DETat ARI13.93.67.5
Marion Barber – DALat NYG13.64.07.6
Edgerrin James – ARIvs DET13.43.46.8
Steven Jackson – STLat NO13.24.37.5
Brandon Jacobs – NYGvs DAL13.14.27.3
Jesse Chatman – MIAvs BUF12.73.96.6
LenDale White – TENvs JAC12.74.87.5
DeShaun Foster – CARvs ATL12.24.26.4
Maurice Jones-Drew – JACat TEN11.95.17.0
Frank Gore – SFat SEA11.95.57.5
Priest Holmes – KCvs DEN11.74.86.5
Justin Fargas – OAKvs CHI11.65.16.7
Travis Henry – DENat KC11.55.57.0
Shaun Alexander – SEAvs SF11.45.16.5
Warrick Dunn – ATLat CAR11.24.75.9
Jamal Lewis – CLEat PIT11.25.46.6
Kenny Watson – CINat BAL10.75.36.1
Cedric Benson – CHIat OAK10.65.05.6
Julius Jones – DALat NYG10.64.85.4
Jerious Norwood – ATLat CAR10.35.45.7
Ryan Grant – GBvs MIN10.35.76.0
Selvin Young – DENat KC10.35.55.8
Fred Taylor – JACat TEN10.25.35.6
Maurice Hicks – SFat SEA10.05.25.2
Rudi Johnson – CINat BAL10.05.85.8
DeAngelo Williams – CARvs ATL9.95.35.2
Michael Robinson – SFat SEA9.85.35.2
Najeh Davenport – PITvs CLE9.84.54.3
Maurice Morris – SEAvs SF9.75.55.2
Chris Henry – TENvs JAC9.35.64.9
Chester Taylor – MINat GB9.35.54.7
Ladell Betts – WASvs PHI9.25.44.6
Kolby Smith – KCvs DEN9.05.74.7
LaMont Jordan – OAKvs CHI8.96.15.0
Derrick Ward – NYGvs DAL8.85.94.8
Brian Leonard – STLat NO8.35.94.3
TJ Duckett – DETat ARI8.25.84.0
Kenton Keith – INDat SD8.06.14.1
Adrian Peterson – CHIat OAK7.96.24.1
Michael Turner – SDvs IND7.86.54.3
Musa Smith – BALvs CIN7.76.54.2
Aaron Stecker – NOvs STL7.66.13.8
Reuben Droughns – NYGvs DAL7.56.23.6
Jason Wright – CLEat PIT7.36.53.8
Correll Buckhalter – PHIat WAS7.26.43.6
Chris Brown – TENvs JAC7.16.83.9
Brandon Jackson – GBvs MIN6.86.73.6
Patrick Cobbs – MIAvs BUF6.86.83.5
Anthony Thomas – BUFat MIA6.86.73.5
Vernand Morency – GBvs MIN6.76.83.4
Jerome Harrison – CLEat PIT6.27.23.4
Marcel Shipp – ARIvs DET6.17.23.3
Mike Anderson – BALvs CIN5.97.23.1
Greg Jones – JACat TEN5.77.32.9
Tatum Bell – DETat ARI5.57.32.8
Tony Hunt – PHIat WAS5.57.32.8
Larry Johnson – KCvs DEN5.47.52.9

 
Start:
Willis McGahee, BAL (14.4 rating): The Ravens have struggled mightily on offense this season, but you cannot blame Willis McGahee. McGahee is on pace for over 1300 yards rushing in his first year as a Raven, and has scored in each of the last three weeks. He has a good matchup this week at home against the Bengals (28th against the run). Baltimore will be looking for revenge in this game after a close defeat to the Bengals in the season opener.

Sit:
Lamont Jordan, OAK (8.9 rating): Jordan showed so much promise after the first four games, in which he ran for over 70 yards in each contest (and over 120 yards twice). But ever since the Raiders had their bye in Week 5, Lamont has not been the same. In his past four games Jordan has failed to break even 50 yards on the ground and has not scored, with injuries being a major issue. Justin Fargas carried the majority of the load for Oakland last week. Unless something changes, Jordan is not worth starting in most leagues for the foreseeable future.
 

Wide ReceiversOpponentRatingRiskReward
Lee Evans – BUFat MIA15.72.68.3
Marques Colston – NOvs STL15.72.58.1
Reggie Wayne – INDat SD15.63.18.6
TJ Houshmandzadeh – CINat BAL15.33.58.8
Plaxico Burress – NYGvs DAL14.83.38.2
Roy Williams – DETat ARI14.82.87.7
Terrell Owens – DALat NYG14.83.17.9
Larry Fitzgerald – ARIvs DET14.83.28.0
Santonio Holmes – PITvs CLE14.82.97.7
Torry Holt – STLat NO14.73.07.7
Anquan Boldin – ARIvs DET14.53.27.6
Hines Ward – PITvs CLE14.23.07.1
Braylon Edwards – CLEat PIT14.04.18.1
Greg Jennings – GBvs MIN13.93.47.3
Steve Smith – CARvs ATL13.63.97.6
Derrick Mason – BALvs CIN13.53.36.8
Brandon Marshall – DENat KC13.13.86.9
Donald Driver – GBvs MIN13.03.66.6
Bobby Engram – SEAvs SF13.03.86.8
Calvin Johnson – DETat ARI12.33.96.2
Kevin Curtis – PHIat WAS12.24.76.8
David Patten – NOvs STL12.04.26.2
Bernard Berrian – CHIat OAK11.94.46.3
Isaac Bruce – STLat NO11.54.56.0
Chris Henry – CINat BAL11.54.56.0
DJ Hackett – SEAvs SF11.54.56.0
Shaun McDonald – DETat ARI11.44.45.8
Amani Toomer – NYGvs DAL11.44.35.7
Chad Johnson – CINat BAL11.35.87.2
Chris Chambers – SDvs IND11.35.06.3
Mark Clayton – BALvs CIN11.24.25.3
Brandon Stokely – DENat KC11.14.65.7
James Jones – GBvs MIN11.04.55.5
Santana Moss – WASvs PHI11.04.95.9
Dwayne Bowe – KCvs DEN11.04.95.9
Muhsin Muhammad – CHIat OAK10.94.75.6
Reggie Brown – PHIat WAS10.95.05.9
Roddy White – ATLat CAR10.95.16.0
Mike Furrey – DETat ARI10.84.65.4
Vincent Jackson – SDvs IND10.65.05.6
Patrick Crayton – DALat NYG10.55.56.1
Ronald Curry – OAKvs CHI10.45.05.5
Devery Henderson – NOvs STL10.44.85.2
Marty Booker – MIAvs BUF10.34.54.8
Nate Washington – PITvs CLE10.24.95.1
Devin Hester – CHIat OAK10.25.75.9
Antwaan Randle El – WASvs PHI10.25.35.5
Sidney Rice – MINat GB9.95.55.4
Reggie Williams – JACat TEN9.95.35.2
Lance Moore – NOvs STL9.85.25.0
Drew Carter – CARvs ATL9.85.14.8
Dennis Northcutt – JACat TEN9.85.25.0
Ted Ginn – MIAvs BUF9.85.55.2
Nate Burleson – SEAvs SF9.75.45.1
Jerry Porter – OAKvs CHI9.75.14.8
Roscoe Parrish – BUFat MIA9.75.75.4
Roydell Williams – TENvs JAC9.65.34.8
Drew Bennett – STLat NO9.45.34.7
Darrell Jackson – SFat SEA9.25.84.9
Joe Jurevicius – CLEat PIT9.05.84.8
Arnaz Battle – SFat SEA9.05.74.7
Michael Jenkins – ATLat CAR8.95.64.5
Derek Hagan – MIAvs BUF8.85.34.1
Brandon Jones – TENvs JAC8.75.74.5
Marvin Harrison – INDat SD8.76.95.6
Sammie Parker – KCvs DEN8.45.84.2
Demetrius Williams – BALvs CIN8.45.53.9
Bryant Johnson – ARIvs DET8.46.04.4
Deion Branch – SEAvs SF8.26.24.4
Eric Moulds – TENvs JAC7.86.13.9
Troy Williamson – MINat GB7.86.24.0
Bobby Wade – MINat GB7.76.34.0
Ernest Wilford – JACat TEN7.56.23.7
Matt Jones – JACat TEN7.46.33.7
Cedrick Wilson – PITvs CLE7.36.13.4
Joe Horn – ATLat CAR7.36.53.8
Terrance Copper – NOvs STL7.36.23.5
Ashley Lelie – SFat SEA7.36.33.6
Glenn Martinez – DENat KC7.26.33.5
Rashied Davis – CHIat OAK7.16.33.5
Ben Obomanu – SEAvs SF7.16.43.5
Anthony Gonzalez – INDat SD7.06.73.7
Buster Davis – SDvs IND7.06.53.5
Antonio Chatman – CINat BAL6.96.53.4
Steve Smith – NYGvs DAL6.66.73.3
Sam Hurd – DALat NYG6.56.63.2
Dwayne Jarrett – CARvs ATL6.56.73.3
James Thrash – WASvs PHI6.46.93.3
Tim Carter – CLEat PIT6.27.03.2
Jerheme Urban – ARIvs DET5.97.02.9
Brandon Lloyd – WASvs PHI5.97.23.1
Malcolm Floyd – SDvs IND5.87.23.0
Sam Aiken – BUFat MIA5.67.22.8
Javon Walker – DENat KC2.68.30.9

 
Start:
TJ Houshmandzadeh, CIN (15.3 rating): TJ always seems to be overshadowed by Chad Johnson, but as far as fantasy players are concerned he has had a far more productive season than Ocho Cinco so far. Housh has scored in EVERY game he has played in this season, with a total of ten touchdowns. That kind of production is hard to ignore. With Chad Johnson a little banged up, Housh may get even more looks than usual this week against Baltimore. Housh usually plays well against the AFC-rival Ravens anyway. He has had more yards against Baltimore than against any other team in each of the three years prior to this season. And to make matters worse for the Ravens: CB Samari Rolle is out and the other starter, Chris McAlister, is also hurt and could be a gametime decision.

Sit:
Jerry Porter, OAK (9.7 rating): Like his teammate, the aforementioned Lamont Jordan, Jerry Porter showed some flashes at the start of the season, scoring three touchdowns in his first four games. However, also like Jordan, Porter has failed to find the endzone since the bye week. The Raiders are struggling overall on offense right now, and quarterback play is at the root of the problem. The struggles of Culpepper and McCown will likely have the calls for rookie JaMarcus Russell growing louder by the minute. The Raiders’ opponent this week, Chicago, has not been dominant on defense this year, but they are rested coming off their bye week, and have a pair of good corners in Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman.
 

Tight EndsOpponentRatingRiskReward
Antonio Gates – SDvs IND16.42.58.9
Jason Witten – DALat NYG15.72.88.5
Tony Gonzalez – KCvs DEN15.42.68.0
Kellen Winslow – CLEat PIT14.54.08.5
Dallas Clark – INDat SD14.23.77.9
Chris Cooley – WASvs PHI14.23.47.5
Heath Miller – PITvs CLE14.03.37.3
Jeremy Shockey – NYGvs DAL12.84.37.1
Vernon Davis – SFat SEA12.64.47.0
Tony Scheffler – DENat KC11.94.26.2
Greg Olsen – CHIat OAK11.54.56.0
Donald Lee – GBvs MIN11.44.55.9
Todd Heap – BALvs CIN11.15.56.6
Eric Johnson – NOvs STL11.04.75.7
Jeff King – CARvs ATL10.84.55.3
Desmond Clark – CHIat OAK10.74.75.4
Robert Royal – BUFat MIA10.24.95.0
Randy McMichael – STLat NO10.05.05.0
Leonard Pope – ARIvs DET9.75.14.8
LJ Smith – PHIat WAS9.75.85.4
David Martin – MIAvs BUF9.25.14.4
Alge Crumpler – ATLat CAR9.25.95.1
Bo Scaife – TENvs JAC8.95.64.5
Zach Miller – OAKvs CHI8.95.94.8
Will Heller – SEAvs SF8.85.54.3
Visanthe Shiancoe – MINat GB8.45.84.2
Ben Troupe – TENvs JAC8.26.04.2
Justin Peelle – MIAvs BUF8.15.93.9
Marcus Pollard – SEAvs SF7.96.24.1
Daniel Graham – DENat KC7.86.34.1
Ben Utecht – INDat SD7.56.23.7
Marcedes Lewis – JACat TEN7.46.53.8
Bubba Franks – GBvs MIN7.36.53.9
Dan Campbell – DETat ARI7.16.53.5
Quinn Sypniewski – BALvs CIN6.86.53.4
Matt Spaeth – PITvs CLE6.86.43.2
Anthony Fasano – DALat NYG6.76.63.2
Matt Schobel – PHIat WAS6.56.93.5
George Wrighster – JACat TEN6.36.93.2
Reggie Kelly – CINat BAL5.97.13.0
Dwayne Blakley – ATLat CAR4.87.72.5

 
Start:
Tony Gonzalez, KC (15.4 rating): Tony Gonzalez is quietly on pace for one of the best season’s of his decorated career. The perennial pro bowler is on pace for over 1230 yards and 8 TDs. He has recorded 66 yards or more in each of his past six games, an impressive feat for a tight end. He should continue to be a must start every week, especially this week as the Chiefs host a plummeting Denver squad that got pounded 44-7 by the Lions in Week 9.

Sit:
Alge Crumpler, ATL (9.2 rating): Crumpler may finally be ready to return from a knee injury that has kept him out since Week 7, but that does not necessarily mean that he is ready to return to your lineup. Even if he does start he is likely to still be bothered by the injury. And remember that he was not exactly tearing the league up when he was playing earlier in the season. The Falcons’ quarterback issues will make it difficult for Crumpler to put up the kind of numbers fantasy owners were used to when he was Michael Vick’s favorite (and only) target.
 

KickersOpponentRatingRiskReward
Jeff Reed – PITvs CLE15.12.67.7
Matt Stover – BALvs CIN15.02.57.5
Adam Vinatieri – INDat SD14.83.18.0
Jason Hanson – DETat ARI14.52.97.4
Nick Folk – DALat NYG13.63.67.2
Neil Rackers – ARIvs DET13.53.26.7
Olindo Mare – NOvs STL13.53.67.1
Robbie Gould – CHIat OAK13.33.36.6
Josh Brown – SEAvs SF13.33.36.6
Nate Kaeding – SDvs IND13.33.76.9
Shaun Suisham – WASvs PHI13.13.66.7
Mason Crosby – GBvs MIN13.03.86.8
Shayne Graham – CINat BAL12.74.16.7
David Akers – PHIat WAS12.53.96.4
John Kasay – CARvs ATL12.33.86.1
Lawrence Tynes – NYGvs DAL12.24.26.4
Rian Lindell – BUFat MIA12.04.16.1
Rob Bironas – TENvs JAC11.94.56.4
Jeff Wilkins – STLat NO11.84.76.5
Jason Elam – DENat KC11.84.36.1
Phil Dawson – CLEat PIT11.84.66.3
Ryan Longwell – MINat GB11.54.76.2
Dave Rayner – KCvs DEN10.74.55.2
Joe Nedney – SFat SEA10.44.85.3
Morten Andersen – ATLat CAR10.34.64.9
John Carney – JACat TEN10.25.15.3
Sebastian Janikowski – OAKvs CHI10.15.05.1
Jay Feely – MIAvs BUF10.05.25.2

 
Start:
Josh Brown, SEA (13.3 rating): Josh Brown has been very solid this season, making 16 of his 17 field goal attempts, good for a 94% accuracy rating. And he definitely has the leg to make the long kick, even though he has only one attempt from 50+ yards this year (which he made). Brown has had a lot of work recently, going 7/7 in his past two games, and he should have several chances this week against the 49ers as well. The Niners are tied for second in the NFL in field goals allowed (18).

Sit:
Phil Dawson, CLE (11.8 rating): The Browns’ offense has been far more effective this year than most people expected, and Dawson has made the most of his opportunities, making 13 of 14 field goal attempts. But this week the Browns find themselves matched up with a Pittsburgh defense that is playing a lot like the Steel Curtain defense of old. Pittsburgh now leads the league in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game after holding the Ravens’ to 7 points in a blowout win. Not to mention the game is at Heinz Field, where the Steelers will have the home field advantage, and the wind conditions are not usually advantageous for kickers.
 

Team DefenseOpponentRatingRiskReward
Seattlevs SF14.43.07.4
Detroitat ARI14.43.47.8
Chicagoat OAK14.33.07.3
Buffaloat MIA13.53.36.8
Pittsburghvs CLE12.84.77.5
New Orleansvs STL12.73.86.5
Tennesseevs JAC12.43.96.3
Green Bayvs MIN11.64.66.2
Carolinavs ATL11.44.35.7
Washingtonvs PHI11.34.96.2
Kansas Cityvs DEN11.24.55.7
Jacksonvilleat TEN11.24.85.9
Oaklandvs CHI11.04.95.8
Philadelphiaat WAS10.94.85.7
Cincinnatiat BAL10.84.75.5
Dallasat NYG10.85.15.8
Baltimorevs CIN10.55.96.4
Minnesotaat GB10.35.45.8
Indianapolisat SD9.85.85.6
New York Giantsvs DAL9.55.95.5
Denverat KC9.05.84.8
Atlantaat CAR8.85.94.6
Arizonavs DET8.86.24.9
San Diegovs IND8.56.34.8
Miamivs BUF7.86.54.3
San Franciscoat SEA7.46.33.7
Clevelandat PIT6.86.93.6
St. Louisat NO5.37.52.8

 
Start:
Detroit (14.4 rating): Detroit has been a very good fantasy defense this year because they have been great at making big plays. The Lions are 5th in the NFL in sacks with 24, 1st in interceptions with 16, and tied for 2nd in fumble recoveries with 10. They have also taken two interceptions and a fumble recovery back for touchdowns. The defense really flexed their muscles against the Broncos last week, and now they are hoping Kurt Warner returns to his turnover-prone ways in Arizona this week.

Sit:
Baltimore (10.5 rating): Injuries have taken their toll on a Ravens’ defense that has been regarded as one of the best in the league for years. Specifically, their two starting cornerbacks, Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister, are banged up and could both be out this week. Their absence last week led to five first half touchdowns for Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. And unfortunately for the Ravens, injuries in the secondary play right into the hands of Carson Palmer and the Bengals, who would love to get into a shootout against a struggling Ravens’ offense. Not only does Palmer have T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson to throw to, but Chris Henry will also be available after returning from his eight game suspension. Needless to say, those three wideouts versus the Ravens’ 3rd, 4th, and 5th corners is a huge mismatch.

 
Special thanks to SwiperNoSwiping, treat24, dream_017, madaslives911, WaCougMBS, knapplc, plantation, suhgamer, Dan Lambskin, codered7, and m16a for their rankings and involvement with this week's article. For more insights and additional fine-tuning, visit our Who to Start/Bench forum section or listen to The Coach's Voice on Fantasy Cafe Radio.
 
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