Week 16

• Tweet

• Tweet

Championship games will be decided over the next two weeks, so buckle up and let’s finish off the season strong! Last week was a good week for running backs. Jamal Lewis proved to be comfortable in the snow, Fred Taylor made his case for Pro-Bowl snub, Steven Jackson continued his post-injury tear, and Frank Gore ran like it was 2006 again. Who will be this week’s big performers? What matchups should you look to avoid/exploit in Week 16? Will Tom Brady and company bounce back just in time to carry your team (or your opponent’s team) to a championship? For answers to these and other lineup-related questions, I present to you the Week 16 Start and Sit. Good luck this week and Happy Holidays!

Our system is based on two separate rankings: Risk and Reward. Each player or defense was given a statistical ranking for each of the two categories.

Risk is determined by anything that could negatively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as matchup, situation, and injuries.

Reward is determined by anything that could positively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as talent, matchup, and situation.

The Ranking for the two categories is as follows:

Risk: Score of 0 being the lowest risk, 10 being the highest risk.
Reward: Score of 0 being lowest reward, 10 being the highest reward.

 

Quarterbacks	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Tom Brady – NE	vs MIA	17.6	1.6	9.2
Derek Anderson – CLE	at CIN	16.4	2.1	8.4
Peyton Manning – IND	vs HOU	15.7	2.5	8.2
Carson Palmer – CIN	vs CLE	15.5	2.5	8.0
Drew Brees – NO	vs PHI	14.6	2.6	7.3
Matt Hasselbeck – SEA	vs BAL	14.6	2.9	7.6
Ben Roethlisberger – PIT	at STL	14.5	2.4	6.9
Brett Favre – GB	at CHI	14.4	2.8	7.2
Kurt Warner – ARI	vs ATL	14.3	3.9	8.1
David Garrard – JAC	vs OAK	13.9	3.0	6.9
Donovan McNabb – PHI	at NO	13.7	3.1	6.8
Tony Romo – DAL	at CAR	13.7	3.4	7.1
Jeff Garcia – TB	at SF	13.6	3.4	7.1
Vince Young – TEN	vs NYJ	13.5	3.4	6.9
Philip Rivers – SD	vs DEN	12.6	4.3	6.9
Jay Cutler – DEN	at SD	12.4	3.7	6.1
Jon Kitna – DET	vs KC	11.9	3.9	5.9
Eli Manning – NYG	at BUF	11.4	4.8	6.2
Sage Rosenfels – HOU	at IND	11.3	4.3	5.6
Todd Collins – WAS	at MIN	11.0	4.8	5.8
Brodie Croyle – KC	at DET	10.7	4.4	5.1
Marc Bulger – STL	vs PIT	10.5	4.3	4.8
Tarvaris Jackson – MIN	vs WAS	10.4	4.7	5.1
Trent Edwards – BUF	vs NYG	10.4	4.9	5.2
Shaun Hill – SF	vs TB	9.7	4.5	4.2
Josh McCown – OAK	at JAC	9.7	4.9	4.6
Kyle Orton – CHI	vs GB	9.6	4.9	4.5
Kyle Boller – BAL	at SEA	9.6	5.2	4.8
Chris Redman – ATL	at ARI	9.4	5.5	4.9
Chad Pennington – NYJ	at TEN	9.0	5.2	4.2
Matt Moore – CAR	vs DAL	8.9	5.2	4.1
Cleo Lemon – MIA	at NE	8.7	5.1	3.8
Kellen Clemens – NYJ	at TEN	6.0	7.1	3.1
JaMarcus Russell – OAK	at JAC	5.4	7.3	2.7
Luke McCown – TB	at SF	5.3	7.1	2.4
Damon Huard – KC	at DET	5.1	7.4	2.5
Billy Volek – SD	vs DEN	5.0	6.5	1.5
Gus Frerotte – STL	vs PIT	4.9	6.6	1.6
Trent Dilfer – SF	vs TB	4.9	6.5	1.4
JP Losman – BUF	vs NYG	4.9	6.9	1.7
AJ Feeley – PHI	at NO	4.8	6.4	1.2
Brooks Bollinger – MIN	vs WAS	4.8	7.5	2.3
Vinny Testaverde – CAR	vs DAL	4.8	8.0	2.8
Jason Campbell – WAS	at MIN	4.4	7.1	1.6
Joey Harrington – ATL	at ARI	4.1	8.1	2.1
Brian Griese – CHI	vs GB	3.7	8.2	1.9
Matt Schaub – HOU	at IND	3.6	7.7	1.3
Byron Leftwich – ATL	at ARI	3.2	7.6	0.8
Daunte Culpepper – OAK	at JAC	2.9	8.9	1.8
John Beck – MIA	at NE	2.9	8.6	1.5

 
Start:
Derek Anderson, CLE (16.4 rating): Anderson has saved a lot of fantasy teams with a surprise breakthrough season. And he has a great chance to end the season on high note against the team that he threw 5 touchdowns against in Week 2: Cincinnati. His numbers last week were hurt by the terrible weather in Cleveland. Assuming that clears up for this week’s game against the Bengals, Anderson should have a game comparable to what he did the three weeks before that last game (2 touchdowns per contest). He’s gotten you this far – make sure you have Derek in your starting lineup come Sunday.

Sit:
Eli Manning, NYG (11.4 rating): Eli started off well this season, in what many expected to be his breakout year. But the Giants have faltered somewhat down the stretch, and Little Manning’s performance has been sporadic. He completed only 36% of his passes last week in the windy Meadowloands against Washington. Conditions are not likely to be great in Buffalo this weekend either. The Bills can play tough defense, especially at home in December. This matchup has to be troubling for Giants fans and should be avoided by Manning’s fantasy owners.
 

Running Backs	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
LaDainian Tomlinson – SD	vs DEN	17.4	1.6	9.1
Brian Westbrook – PHI	at NO	17.1	1.9	9.0
Adrian Peterson – MIN	vs WAS	15.7	2.8	8.5
Willie Parker – PIT	at STL	15.5	2.2	7.7
Jamal Lewis – CLE	at CIN	15.1	2.9	7.9
Joseph Addai – IND	vs HOU	14.9	3.1	8.0
Fred Taylor – JAC	vs OAK	14.8	2.9	7.7
Maurice Jones-Drew – JAC	vs OAK	14.4	3.4	7.8
Steven Jackson – STL	vs PIT	14.3	3.4	7.7
Earnest Graham – TB	at SF	14.2	3.6	7.9
Kolby Smith – KC	at DET	13.9	3.4	7.3
Ryan Grant – GB	at CHI	13.8	3.5	7.3
Marshawn Lynch – BUF	vs NYG	13.6	3.6	7.3
Willis McGahee – BAL	at SEA	13.6	3.3	6.9
LenDale White – TEN	vs NYJ	13.6	3.7	7.3
Marion Barber – DAL	at CAR	13.4	3.4	6.8
Rudi Johnson – CIN	vs CLE	13.4	3.3	6.6
Brandon Jacobs – NYG	at BUF	13.4	3.7	7.1
Edgerrin James – ARI	vs ATL	13.0	3.7	6.7
Frank Gore – SF	vs TB	12.7	4.3	7.0
Laurence Maroney – NE	vs MIA	12.6	5.0	7.6
Aaron Stecker – NO	vs PHI	12.6	4.0	6.6
Kevin Jones – DET	vs KC	12.4	4.1	6.5
Clinton Portis – WAS	at MIN	12.0	3.9	5.9
Chester Taylor – MIN	vs WAS	11.9	4.2	6.1
Selvin Young – DEN	at SD	11.9	3.9	5.9
Ron Dayne – HOU	at IND	11.4	4.2	5.6
Jerious Norwood – ATL	at ARI	11.4	4.5	5.9
Kenton Keith – IND	vs HOU	11.0	4.6	5.6
Adrian Peterson – CHI	vs GB	10.9	4.0	4.9
Kenny Watson – CIN	vs CLE	10.9	4.6	5.4
Thomas Jones – NYJ	at TEN	10.6	4.9	5.5
Julius Jones – DAL	at CAR	10.4	4.4	4.7
Travis Henry – DEN	at SD	10.1	4.5	4.6
Warrick Dunn – ATL	at ARI	10.1	4.8	4.9
Samkon Gado – MIA	at NE	9.9	5.1	5.0
Chris Brown – TEN	vs NYJ	9.8	5.1	4.9
Fred Jackson – BUF	vs NYG	9.7	5.4	5.1
DeAngelo Williams – CAR	vs DAL	9.7	5.4	5.1
Najeh Davenport – PIT	at STL	9.6	5.1	4.8
Michael Pittman – TB	at SF	9.4	5.3	4.7
LaMont Jordan – OAK	at JAC	9.4	5.7	5.1
Maurice Morris – SEA	vs BAL	9.4	5.7	5.1
DeShaun Foster – CAR	vs DAL	9.1	5.4	4.5
Leon Washington – NYJ	at TEN	8.7	5.8	4.5
Darius Walker – HOU	at IND	8.6	5.9	4.5
Reuben Droughns – NYG	at BUF	8.4	6.2	4.6
Dominic Rhodes – OAK	at JAC	8.4	6.2	4.6
Shaun Alexander – SEA	vs BAL	8.4	6.4	4.7
Correll Buckhalter – PHI	at NO	8.0	4.9	2.9
Kevin Faulk – NE	vs MIA	8.0	5.9	3.9
Leonard Weaver – SEA	vs BAL	7.9	6.1	4.0
Musa Smith – BAL	at SEA	7.8	6.6	4.4
TJ Duckett – DET	vs KC	7.4	6.4	3.8
Greg Jones – JAC	vs OAK	7.2	6.3	3.5
Heath Evans – NE	vs MIA	7.1	6.5	3.6
Jason Wright – CLE	at CIN	7.1	5.7	2.8
Ladell Betts – WAS	at MIN	7.1	6.1	3.1
Michael Bennett – TB	at SF	7.0	6.3	3.3
Pierre Thomas – NO	vs PHI	6.4	7.3	3.7
Lorenzo Booker – MIA	at NE	6.2	7.4	3.6
Antonio Pittman – STL	vs PIT	6.2	6.7	2.9
Michael Turner – SD	vs DEN	5.9	7.3	3.2
Brian Leonard – STL	vs PIT	5.9	6.9	2.7
Garrett Wolfe – CHI	vs GB	5.7	7.2	2.9
Patrick Cobbs – MIA	at NE	5.6	6.6	2.2
Chris Henry – TEN	vs NYJ	5.6	7.1	2.7
Aveion Cason – DET	vs KC	5.6	6.9	2.6
Maurice Hicks – SF	vs TB	5.5	7.4	2.9
Brandon Jackson – GB	at CHI	5.4	6.9	2.3
Gilbert Harris – KC	at DET	5.4	7.0	2.4
Marcel Shipp – ARI	vs ATL	5.4	7.2	2.6
Ahmed Bradshaw – NTG	at BUF	5.4	7.2	2.6
Vernand Morency – GB	at CHI	5.4	6.9	2.3
Justin Fargas – OAK	at JAC	5.1	6.7	1.9
Michael Robinson – SF	vs TB	5.1	7.1	2.3
Mewelde Moore – MIN	vs WAS	5.0	7.1	2.1
Tony Hunt – PHI	at NO	4.9	7.1	2.0
Jason Snelling – ATL	at ARI	4.6	7.6	2.3
Joe Echemandu – HOU	at IND	4.6	8.4	3.0
Mike Bell – DEN	at SD	4.6	6.6	1.2
Tatum Bell – DET	vs KC	4.5	7.2	1.7
Mike Anderson – BAL	at SEA	4.4	8.0	2.4
Ahman Green – HOU	at IND	4.0	7.5	1.5
Jerome Harrison – CLE	at CIN	3.9	8.1	1.9
Jesse Chatman – MIA	at NE	3.9	8.5	2.4
Larry Johnson – KC	at DET	3.8	8.4	2.2
Anthony Thomas – BUF	vs NYG	3.6	7.6	1.1
Dwayne Wright – BUF	vs NYG	3.6	8.5	2.1
Andre Hall – DEN	at SD	3.3	8.6	1.9
Reggie Bush – NO	vs PHI	2.9	9.3	2.1

 
Start:
Fred Taylor, JAX (14.8 rating): Taylor has been on a roll recently, rushing for 100+ yards in four straight games now. While this hot streak was not enough to get him a spot on the Pro Bowl roster, it has certainly been a great help to his fantasy owners. Fred has a great chance to go over 100 again this week against the weak Oakland rush defense.

Sit:
Adrian Peterson, CHI (10.9 rating): The “other” Adrian Peterson was outplayed by his flashier rookie counterpart in their headsup meeting last Monday Night. Peterson is a decent all-purpose back, but he has not been the answer as the Bears’ starting running back, posting only 3.2 yards per carry. He will likely find this weekend’s game against Green Bay to be tough sledding once again. The Packers have allowed only five rushing touchdowns on the year, second fewest in the NFL.
 

Wide Receivers	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Randy Moss – NE	vs MIA	16.9	1.8	8.6
Braylon Edwards – CLE	at CIN	16.5	2.1	8.6
Reggie Wayne – IND	vs HOU	15.6	2.7	8.4
Marques Colston – NO	vs PHI	14.6	3.1	7.8
TJ Houshmandzadeh – CIN	vs CLE	14.6	3.3	7.9
Terrell Owens – DAL	at CAR	14.3	3.1	7.4
Greg Jennings – GB	at CHI	14.1	3.0	7.1
Larry Fitzgerald – ARI	vs ATL	14.1	4.2	8.3
Chad Johnson – CIN	vs CLE	14.1	3.2	7.3
Wes Welker – NE	vs MIA	13.9	3.4	7.3
Hines Ward – PIT	at STL	13.5	3.4	6.9
Brandon Marshall – DEN	at SD	13.4	3.8	7.1
Joey Galloway – TB	at SF	13.2	3.9	7.1
Anthony Gonzalez – IND	vs HOU	12.9	4.1	7.0
Roddy White – ATL	at ARI	12.7	3.7	6.4
Shaun McDonald – DET	vs KC	12.7	3.8	6.5
Plaxico Burress – NYG	at BUF	12.6	3.9	6.5
Dwayne Bowe – KC	at DET	12.6	4.4	7.0
Santonio Holmes – PIT	at STL	12.5	4.6	7.1
Torry Holt – STL	vs PIT	12.1	4.0	6.1
Andre Johnson – HOU	at IND	12.1	4.4	6.5
Donald Driver – GB	at CHI	12.0	3.9	5.9
Deion Branch – SEA	vs BAL	11.9	4.5	6.4
Bobby Engram – SEA	vs BAL	11.7	4.5	6.2
Justin Gage – TEN	vs NYJ	11.7	4.6	6.3
Lee Evans – BUF	vs NYG	11.6	4.4	6.1
Roydell Williams – TEN	vs NYJ	11.4	4.3	5.7
Bryant Johnson – ARI	vs ATL	11.4	4.4	5.8
Santana Moss – WAS	at MIN	11.4	5.4	6.9
Mark Clayton – BAL	at SEA	11.4	4.2	5.6
Anquan Boldin – ARI	vs ATL	11.3	5.4	6.6
David Patten – NO	vs PHI	11.3	4.6	5.9
Reggie Williams – JAC	vs OAK	11.2	4.4	5.6
Kevin Curtis – PHI	at NO	11.2	4.9	6.1
Chris Henry – CIN	vs CLE	11.1	5.4	6.4
Michael Jenkins – ATL	at ARI	10.9	4.6	5.5
Reggie Brown – PHI	at NO	10.9	4.4	5.3
Calvin Johnson – DET	vs KC	10.6	4.3	4.9
Jabar Gaffney – NE	vs MIA	10.6	5.2	5.8
Jerricho Cotchery – NYJ	at TEN	10.6	5.5	6.1
Patrick Crayton – DAL	at CAR	10.5	5.0	5.5
Nate Burleson – SEA	vs BAL	10.5	5.3	5.8
Muhsin Muhammad – CHI	vs GB	10.4	4.7	5.1
Chris Chambers – SD	vs DEN	10.4	5.0	5.4
Joe Jurevicius – CLE	at CIN	10.4	4.4	4.8
Isaac Bruce – STL	vs PIT	10.4	4.4	4.8
Bernard Berrian – CHI	vs GB	10.4	5.1	5.4
Donte Stallworth – NE	vs MIA	10.1	5.4	5.6
Derrick Mason – BAL	at SEA	10.0	4.9	4.9
Arnaz Battle – SF	vs TB	9.8	5.3	5.1
Eddie Kennison – KC	at DET	9.7	4.7	4.4
Amani Toomer – NYG	at BUF	9.7	5.2	4.9
DJ Hackett – SEA	vs BAL	9.6	5.6	5.2
Ronald Curry – OAK	at JAC	9.6	5.6	5.3
Michael Clayton – TB	at SF	9.6	5.5	5.1
Devery Henderson – NO	vs PHI	9.4	5.6	5.0
Mike Furrey – DET	vs KC	9.3	5.4	4.7
Sammie Parker – KC	at DET	9.2	5.0	4.2
Jerheme Urban – ARI	vs ATL	9.1	5.0	4.1
Vincent Jackson – SD	vs DEN	9.0	5.6	4.6
Antwaan Randle El – WAS	at MIN	9.0	5.9	4.9
Marty Booker – MIA	at NE	8.9	5.2	4.1
Josh Reed – BUF	vs NYG	8.9	5.3	4.2
James Jones – GB	at CHI	8.9	5.5	4.4
Steve Smith – CAR	vs DAL	8.9	6.5	5.4
Dennis Northcutt – JAC	vs OAK	8.8	5.9	4.6
Eric Moulds – TEN	vs NYJ	8.7	5.5	4.2
Kevin Walter – HOU	at IND	8.7	5.9	4.6
Brandon Stokley – DEN	at SD	8.6	6.1	4.6
Sidney Rice – MIN	vs WAS	8.6	6.2	4.8
Jerry Porter – OAK	at JAC	8.5	6.1	4.6
Bobby Wade – MIN	vs WAS	8.3	5.9	4.2
Ruvell Martin – GB	at CHI	8.1	5.5	3.6
Andre Davis – HOU	at IND	8.1	6.3	4.4
Craig Davis – SD	vs DEN	8.0	5.9	3.9
Darrell Jackson – SF	vs TB	8.0	5.9	3.9
Justin McCareins – NYJ	at TEN	8.0	6.2	4.2
Laurent Robinson – ATL	at ARI	7.9	5.8	3.6
Drew Bennett – STL	vs PIT	7.9	5.9	3.8
Brandon Jones – TEN	vs NYJ	7.8	5.1	2.9
Ike Hilliard – TB	at SF	7.6	6.1	3.8
Ernest Wilford – JAC	vs OAK	7.6	6.1	3.7
Troy Williamson – MIN	vs WAS	7.5	6.1	3.6
Devin Aromashodu – IND	vs HOU	7.4	5.7	3.1
Javon Walker – DEN	at SD	7.4	6.7	4.1
Tim Dwight – OAK	at JAC	7.4	6.4	3.7
Laveranues Coles – NYJ	at TEN	7.3	7.1	4.4
Nate Washington – PIT	at STL	7.3	6.1	3.4
Ted Ginn – MIA	at NE	7.2	7.0	4.2
Koren Robinson – GB	at CHI	7.1	6.4	3.4
Drew Carter – CAR	vs DAL	7.1	6.4	3.5
Robert Ferguson – MIN	vs WAS	7.1	6.7	3.8
Brad Smith – NYJ	at TEN	6.7	6.6	3.3
Roscoe Parrish – BUF	vs NYG	6.6	6.8	3.4
Dwayne Jarrett – CAR	vs DAL	6.6	6.9	3.4
Demetrius Williams – BAL	at SEA	6.4	6.6	3.1
Antonio Chatman – CIN	vs CLE	6.4	6.4	2.8
Devin Hester – CHI	vs GB	6.4	7.4	3.8
Hank Baskett – PHI	at NO	6.3	6.7	3.0
Cedrick Wilson – PIT	at STL	6.1	7.1	3.2
Terrance Copper – NO	vs PHI	6.1	6.7	2.8
Jason Avant – PHI	at NO	6.1	6.7	2.8
Glenn Martinez – DEN	at SD	6.1	7.0	3.1
Ben Obomanu – SEA	vs BAL	6.0	6.9	2.9
Sam Hurd – DAL	at CAR	5.8	7.0	2.8
Rashied Davis – CHI	vs GB	5.7	6.9	2.6
Ashley Lelie – SF	vs TB	5.6	7.4	3.0
Lance Moore – NO	vs PHI	5.5	7.1	2.6
Dante Hall – STL	vs PIT	5.4	7.1	2.5
Malcolm Floyd – SD	vs DEN	5.4	7.1	2.6
Greg Camarillo – MIA	at NE	5.4	7.5	2.9
Keenan McCardell – WAS	at MIN	5.4	7.2	2.6
Derek Hagan – MIA	at NE	5.4	7.4	2.8
Steve Smith – NYG	at BUF	5.1	7.6	2.6
Matt Jones – JAC	vs OAK	4.9	7.7	2.6
James Thrash – WAS	at MIN	4.9	7.7	2.6
Jacoby Jones – HOU	at IND	4.7	7.4	2.1
Tim Carter – CLE	at CIN	4.7	7.2	1.9
Terry Glenn – DAL	at CAR	4.6	7.5	2.1
Craphonso Thorpe – IND	vs HOU	4.5	7.6	2.1
Sam Aiken – BUF	vs NYG	4.4	7.9	2.3
Joe Horn – ATL	at ARI	4.2	7.6	1.8
Marvin Harrison – IND	vs HOU	2.5	8.1	0.6

 
Start:
Dwayne Bowe, KC (12.6 rating): Bowe has cooled off a bit after an impressive start, but he has still put together a very nice rookie season. He has not found the end zone since Week 11, but he has the opportunity to put together a very nice game this week. The Lions’ defense that he faces is 31st in the league in passing yards allowed, and 32nd in passing touchdowns allowed. Bowe makes for a solid play based on this matchup.

Sit:
Chris Chambers, SD (10.4 rating): The Chargers seem to have found their identity as a run-first team, pounding the ball with LaDainian Tomlinson en route to 51-14 drubbing of the Detroit Lions in Week 15. Norv Turner would probably be happy to limit the amount of throws Philip Rivers has to make. Not to mention, Chambers will be matched up against Champ Bailey or Dre Bly, two of the NFL’s best corners. All of these things make me think you could do better than Chambers as a starting receiver this week.
 

Tight Ends	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Kellen Winslow – CLE	at CIN	16.1	2.2	8.4
Jason Witten – DAL	at CAR	15.9	2.6	8.4
Tony Gonzalez – KC	at DET	14.1	3.4	7.4
Chris Cooley – WAS	at MIN	13.9	3.6	7.5
Dallas Clark – IND	vs HOU	13.6	3.6	7.2
Heath Miller – PIT	at STL	12.9	3.6	6.4
Antonio Gates – SD	vs DEN	12.8	4.9	7.7
Donald Lee – GB	at CHI	12.7	3.7	6.4
Tony Scheffler – DEN	at SD	12.6	4.2	6.8
Ben Watson – NE	vs MIA	12.1	4.1	6.3
Owen Daniels – HOU	at IND	11.9	4.0	5.9
Vernon Davis – SF	vs TB	11.7	4.1	5.8
Anthony Becht – TB	at SF	9.8	4.6	4.4
Alge Crumpler – ATL	at ARI	9.6	4.8	4.4
Desmond Clark – CHI	vs GB	9.6	4.8	4.4
Ben Patrick – ARI	vs ATL	9.6	4.6	4.1
Robert Royal – BUF	vs NYG	9.5	5.1	4.6
Greg Olsen – CHI	vs GB	9.4	5.3	4.6
Chris Baker – NYJ	at TEN	9.2	5.3	4.5
Kevin Boss – NYG	at BUF	9.1	5.4	4.6
Ben Troupe – TEN	vs NYJ	9.0	5.1	4.1
Bo Scaife – TEN	vs NYJ	8.7	5.5	4.2
Randy McMichael – STL	vs PIT	8.7	5.1	3.9
Visanthe Shiancoe – MIN	vs WAS	8.6	5.3	3.9
Zach Miller – OAK	at JAC	8.6	5.3	3.9
Marcus Pollard – SEA	vs BAL	8.4	5.3	3.6
Marcedes Lewis – JAC	vs OAK	8.1	5.4	3.5
Reggie Kelly – CIN	vs CLE	8.1	4.7	2.8
Kyle Brady – NE	vs MIA	8.1	5.9	4.0
Ben Utecht – IND	vs HOU	8.0	6.1	4.1
Eric Johnson – NO	vs PHI	7.9	5.8	3.6
Jeff King – CAR	vs DAL	7.6	6.1	3.6
Will Heller – SEA	vs BAL	7.0	5.7	2.7
Anthony Fasano – DAL	at CAR	6.9	5.1	2.0
Sean McHugh – DET	vs KC	6.6	6.4	3.0
Alex Smith – TB	at SF	6.5	6.2	2.7
Daniel Graham – DEN	at SD	6.4	6.6	3.0
LJ Smith – PHI	at NO	6.3	6.9	3.2
Brent Celek – PHI	at NO	6.3	6.6	2.9
Bryan Fletcher – IND	vs HOU	6.1	6.5	2.6
Bubba Franks – GB	at CHI	6.0	7.1	3.1
Todd Yoder – WAS	at MIN	5.9	7.1	3.1
Quinn Sypniewski – BAL	at SEA	5.9	7.4	3.4
Casey Fitzsimmons – DET	vs KC	5.8	6.5	2.3
Matt Schobel – PHI	at NO	5.7	6.9	2.6
David Martin – MIA	at NE	5.5	6.4	1.9
Christian Fauria – CAR	vs DAL	5.5	7.5	3.0
Billy Miller – NO	vs PHI	5.5	7.5	3.0
Richard Angulo – JAC	vs OAK	5.4	6.8	2.2
Todd Heap – BAL	at SEA	4.4	8.6	3.0
Justin Peelle – MIA	at NE	4.1	7.2	1.3
Matt Spaeth – PIT	at STL	4.0	7.8	1.8
Jeb Putzier – HOU	at IND	3.3	8.8	2.1
Jason Dunn – KC	at DET	3.2	8.6	1.8

 
Start:
Jason Witten, DAL (15.9 rating): Witten has had quite an impressive season, already going over 1000 yards with two games to play. Even as Dallas’ offense struggled last week in the loss to the Eagles, Witten went over 100 yards. I see no reason not to expect this success to continue, as Witten looks for his third straight 100-yard game this Saturday against Carolina.

Sit:
Zach Miller, OAK (8.6 rating): The Raiders’ young tight end has had a couple of nice games this season, but he has been far from a consistent contributor. With only one catch in each of his last two games, I would not consider Miller much of a factor as a fantasy tight end at this point in the season. That is, unless you are really desperate and/or in a really big league…
 

Kickers	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Phil Dawson – CLE	at CIN	14.8	2.6	7.4
Shayne Graham – CIN	vs CLE	14.8	2.8	7.6
Stephen Gostkowski – NE	vs MIA	14.7	2.8	7.4
Nate Kaeding – SD	vs DEN	14.4	2.5	6.9
Neil Rackers – ARI	vs ATL	14.3	2.8	7.1
Jason Hanson – DET	vs KC	14.1	2.8	6.9
Mason Crosby – GB	at CHI	14.0	2.9	6.9
Adam Vinatieri – IND	vs HOU	13.8	3.0	6.8
Rob Bironas – TEN	vs NYJ	13.8	3.0	6.8
Ryan Longwell – MIN	vs WAS	13.4	3.4	6.8
David Akers – PHI	at NO	13.3	3.3	6.7
Josh Scobee – JAC	vs OAK	13.3	3.3	6.5
Josh Brown – SEA	vs BAL	13.0	3.3	6.3
Matt Stover – BAL	at SEA	12.9	3.2	6.1
Nick Folk – DAL	at CAR	12.9	3.5	6.4
Olindo Mare – NO	vs PHI	12.6	2.6	5.2
Jason Elam – DEN	at SD	12.5	3.7	6.2
Jeff Reed – PIT	at STL	12.5	4.0	6.5
Robbie Gould – CHI	vs GB	12.4	3.8	6.2
Matt Bryant – TB	at SF	12.3	3.7	6.0
Shaun Suisham – WAS	at MIN	12.3	4.1	6.3
Kris Brown – HOU	at IND	12.1	4.1	6.2
Rian Lindell – BUF	vs NYG	11.8	4.2	5.9
Sebastian Janikowski – OAK	at JAC	11.2	4.3	5.4
John Kasay – CAR	vs DAL	11.2	4.5	5.7
John Carney – KC	at DET	11.1	4.3	5.3
Jeff Wilkins – STL	vs PIT	11.1	4.5	5.6
Mike Nugent – NYJ	at TEN	11.0	4.2	5.2
Lawrence Tynes – NYG	at BUF	10.9	4.3	5.2
Morten Andersen – ATL	at ARI	10.5	4.5	5.0
Joe Nedney – SF	vs TB	10.2	4.7	4.8
Jay Feely – MIA	at NE	9.7	5.3	5.0

 
Start:
Shayne Graham, CIN (14.8 rating): The last time the Bengals and Browns met the scoreboard was lit up for 96 total points. That probably won’t happen again, but both of these teams are built for shootouts – they have great passing games, but weak defenses. Both Shayne Graham and Phil Dawson are strong plays (as their rankings would suggest).

Sit:
Robbie Gould, CHI (12.4 rating): As long as the Bears’ offense continues to struggle, Gould is a less than ideal start at kicker. His matchup this week is particularly ominous. The Packers allow only 17.4 points per game, 6th best in the league. And the game is in Chicago in December, meaning cold and windy conditions are likely. Not the best conditions for a great kicking game.
 

Team Defense	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
New England	vs MIA	15.3	2.3	7.6
Jacksonville	vs OAK	13.8	2.5	6.3
Tampa Bay	at SF	12.8	3.7	6.5
Green Bay	at CHI	12.6	3.5	6.1
Dallas	at CAR	12.4	3.8	6.3
Seattle	vs BAL	12.4	4.1	6.5
Indianapolis	vs HOU	12.3	3.7	5.9
New York Giants	at BUF	11.7	4.0	5.7
San Diego	vs DEN	11.6	4.1	5.7
Minnesota	vs WAS	11.6	4.3	5.9
Pittsburgh	at STL	11.5	4.2	5.7
Tennessee	vs NYJ	11.4	4.0	5.4
Arizona	vs ATL	11.2	4.2	5.4
Detroit	vs KC	10.4	5.0	5.4
Buffalo	vs NYG	9.8	5.1	4.8
Baltimore	at SEA	9.1	5.3	4.4
Washington	at MIN	9.0	5.0	4.0
Denver	at SD	8.4	5.0	3.4
Chicago	vs GB	8.3	5.6	3.9
New Orleans	vs PHI	8.2	5.7	3.9
Kansas City	at DET	8.1	5.7	3.7
Philadelphia	at NO	7.8	6.0	3.8
Oakland	at JAC	7.6	5.9	3.6
Houston	at IND	7.3	6.4	3.7
New York Jets	at TEN	6.8	6.3	3.1
San Francisco	vs TB	6.7	6.6	3.3
Atlanta	at ARI	6.6	6.8	3.4
Carolina	vs DAL	6.3	6.9	3.2
St. Louis	vs PIT	6.2	7.0	3.2
Cleveland	at CIN	6.1	7.2	3.2
Cincinnati	vs CLE	6.0	7.1	3.1
Miami	at NE	3.7	8.3	2.1

 
Start:
Seattle (12.4 rating): Seattle has been a strong fantasy defense this year, ranking second in the NFL in both sacks (41) and interceptions (20). They are also top 5 in the league in points allowed per game (17.4). The Seahawks have a great matchup this week against a Ravens’ defense that is not getting any consistency out of the quarterback position. Kyle Boller suffered a mild concussion last week, so rookie Troy Smith may start this week for Baltimore. Seattle should be able to create some big plays on defense, allowing for big fantasy points.

Sit:
Philadelphia (7.8 rating): The Eagles did a commendable job shutting down Tony Romo and the Cowboys in Dallas last week. Now they have to go on the road again and avoid a let-down game against a Saints team trying to land that last playoff spot in the NFC. New Orleans looks as good as ever on offense. Aaron Stecker has come in for the injured Reggie Bush and been productive, while Drew Brees is looking more and more like the player he was last year.

 
Special thanks to SwiperNoSwiping, dream_017, madaslives911, treat24, plantation, Amuk, and TaDa for their rankings and involvement with this week's article. For more insights and additional fine-tuning, visit our Who to Start/Bench forum section or listen to The Coach's Voice on Fantasy Cafe Radio.
 

Rate this article: (24 votes, average: 4.33 out of 5)  Loading ... Questions or comments for Nick? Post them in the Cafe Forums! Want to write for the Cafe? Check out the Cafe's Pencil & Paper section!