Week 4

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This weekend’s games are right around the corner, and now, for the first time this season, bye weeks come into play. If your team is heavily laden with Saints, Redskins, Titans, and Jaguars you will have to look to the bench, or free agency to fill out your line up. (Although I suppose most owners won’t be too broken up about sending Drew Brees or Maurice Jones-Drew to the bench). Thanks once again to our tireless rankers, here is your Week 4 Start and Sit!

Our system is based on two separate rankings: Risk and Reward. Each player or defense was given a statistical ranking for each of the two categories.

Risk is determined by anything that could negatively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as matchup, situation, and injuries.

Reward is determined by anything that could positively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as talent, matchup, and situation.

The Ranking for the two categories is as follows:

Risk: Score of 0 being the lowest risk, 10 being the highest risk.
Reward: Score of 0 being lowest reward, 10 being the highest reward.

 

Quarterbacks	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Tom Brady – NE	at CIN	18.3	0.9	9.2
Tony Romo – DAL	vs STL	17.2	1.6	8.9
Peyton Manning – IND	vs DEN	16.2	2.6	8.9
Donovan McNabb – PHI	at NYG	15.8	2.5	8.3
Jon Kitna – DET	vs CHI	15.3	2.7	8.0
Brett Favre – GB	at MIN	14.7	3.2	7.9
Carson Palmer – CIN	vs NE	14.7	3.3	8.0
Ben Roethlisberger – PIT	at ARI	14.3	2.7	7.0
Matt Hasselbeck – SEA	at SF	14.1	3.1	7.2
Philip Rivers – SD	vs KC	13.0	3.9	6.9
Matt Schaub – HOU	at ATL	12.8	3.6	6.4
Eli Manning – NYG	vs PHI	12.4	4.1	6.6
Chad Pennington – NYJ	at BUF	12.3	4.0	6.3
Steve McNair – BAL	at CLE	11.7	4.7	6.3
Jay Cutler – DEN	at IND	11.4	4.7	6.1
Jeff Garcia – TB	at CAR	11.0	4.8	5.7
Alex Smith – SF	vs SEA	10.9	4.6	5.5
Trent Green – MIA	vs OAK	10.8	4.7	5.5
Marc Bulger – STL	at DAL	10.7	5.2	6.0
Derek Anderson – CLE	vs BAL	9.6	5.9	5.5
Daunte Culpepper – OAK	at MIA	9.2	5.6	4.9
Damon Huard – KC	at SD	8.8	5.4	4.2
Joey Harrington – ATL	vs HOU	8.6	6.0	4.6
Matt Leinart – ARI	vs PIT	8.1	6.7	4.8
Brian Griese – CHI	at DET	8.0	6.8	4.8
David Carr – CAR	vs TB	7.7	6.3	4.0
Kurt Warner – ARI	vs PIT	7.5	6.7	4.2
Josh McCown – OAK	at MIA	7.4	6.3	3.7
Jake Delhomme – CAR	vs TB	7.3	6.4	3.7
Kelly Holcomb – MIN	vs GB	6.9	6.6	3.5
Kyle Boller – BAL	at CLE	6.5	6.7	3.3
Tarvaris Jackson – MIN	vs GB	6.5	6.7	3.2
Trent Edwards – BUF	vs NYJ	5.6	7.4	3.0

 
Start:
Tom Brady, NE (18.3 rating): I know, I’m really going out on a limb with this one right? I just wanted to relay a few statistics, if you haven’t already heard them 100 times on Sportscenter. Brady is completing 79.5 % of his passes. He has thrown ten TDs and only one interception in just three games. His quarterback rating is 141.8! So much for the Pats getting off to a slow start because of their completely revamped receiving corps. Brady owners have to be licking their chops even more than usual this week, with Cincinnati on the schedule.

Sit:
Marc Bulger, STL (10.7 rating): To say that the Rams have struggled to get their offense going would be an understatement. The trouble that Bulger, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, and Isaac Bruce have had putting points on the board is a testament to just how important injured left tackle Orlando Pace is to this offense. The Cowboys’ secondary gave up a lot of points to the Giants in Week 1, but have since tightened up (or maybe they have just played weaker competition). In any case, you probably want Bulger to sit this week out, especially considering that he will be missing the key cog in his offense, Steven Jackson.
 

Running Backs	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Joseph Addai – IND	vs DEN	16.7	1.9	8.6
Willie Parker – PIT	at ARI	16.5	1.9	8.4
LaDainian Tomlinson – SD	vs KC	16.3	2.4	8.7
Marion Barber III – DAL	vs STL	16.0	2.1	8.1
Brian Westbrook – PHI	at NYG	15.9	2.7	8.6
Frank Gore – SF	vs SEA	15.9	2.7	8.5
Willis McGahee – BAL	at CLE	15.5	2.3	7.7
LaMont Jordan – OAK	at MIA	15.2	2.5	7.7
Shaun Alexander – SEA	at SF	15.0	3.3	8.3
Travis Henry – DEN	at IND	14.3	3.1	7.4
Ronnie Brown – MIA	vs OAK	13.8	3.3	7.1
Thomas Jones – NYJ	at BUF	13.7	3.4	7.1
Laurence Maroney – NE	at CIN	13.6	3.7	7.4
Marshawn Lynch – BUF	vs NYJ	13.5	3.7	7.1
Cedric Benson – CHI	at DET	13.4	3.4	6.8
Adrian Peterson – MIN	vs GB	13.2	4.0	7.3
Larry Johnson – KC	at SD	12.6	4.5	7.1
Cadillac Williams – TB	at CAR	12.4	3.9	6.3
DeShaun Foster – CAR	vs TB	11.8	4.2	6.0
Derrick Ward – NYG	vs PHI	11.7	4.5	6.2
Edgerrin James – ARI	vs PIT	11.1	4.6	5.8
Brian Leonard – STL	at DAL	11.0	5.0	6.0
Sammy Morris – NE	at CIN	10.9	4.4	5.3
Jamal Lewis – CLE	vs BAL	10.8	5.1	5.9
Julius Jones – DAL	vs STL	10.7	4.5	5.2
Warrick Dunn – ATL	vs HOU	10.4	4.7	5.1
DeAngelo Williams – CAR	vs TB	9.9	5.3	5.3
Jerious Norwood – ATL	vs HOU	9.8	5.1	4.9
Kevin Jones – DET	vs CHI	9.8	5.9	5.7
Rudi Johnson – CIN	vs NE	9.7	6.1	5.8
DeShawn Wynn – GB	at MIN	9.0	6.0	4.9
Leon Washington – NYJ	at BUF	8.6	6.0	4.5
Brandon Jackson – GB	at MIN	8.4	6.5	4.9
Ron Dayne – HOU	at ATL	8.3	6.3	4.5
Najeh Davenport – PIT	at ARI	8.2	6.0	4.2
Tatum Bell – DET	vs CHI	8.0	6.5	4.5
Correll Buckhalter – PHI	at NYG	7.8	6.3	4.2
Reuben Droughns – NYG	vs PHI	7.3	6.2	3.5
Jesse Chatman – MIA	vs OAK	7.3	6.3	3.6
Michael Turner – SD	vs KC	7.2	6.8	4.0
Kenny Watson – CIN	vs NE	7.1	6.5	3.6
Samkon Gado – HOU	at ATL	7.1	6.3	3.4
Kevin Faulk – NE	at CIN	7.0	6.3	3.4
Adrian Peterson – CHI	at DET	7.0	6.2	3.3
Musa Smith – BAL	at CLE	6.9	6.5	3.4
Selvin Young – DEN	at IND	6.8	6.5	3.3
Anthony Thomas – BUF	vs NYJ	6.7	6.7	3.4
Kenton Keith – IND	vs DEN	6.4	6.2	2.7
Vernand Morency – GB	at MIN	6.3	7.3	3.7
Tony Hunt – PHI	at NYG	6.3	6.6	2.9
Michael Robinson – SF	vs SEA	6.2	7.0	3.2
Maurice Morris – SEA	at SF	6.2	7.0	3.2
Michael Pittman – TB	at CAR	6.2	6.5	2.6
Chester Taylor – MIN	vs GB	5.9	7.1	3.0
Justin Fargas – OAK	at MIA	5.9	7.1	3.0
Mike Anderson – BAL	at CLE	5.6	7.1	2.7
Marcel Shipp – ARI	vs PIT	5.3	7.0	2.3
Michael Bennett – KC	at SD	5.3	7.5	2.8
Jerome Harrison – CLE	vs BAL	4.6	7.8	2.4

 
Start:
Marion Barber III, DAL (16.0 rating): Many experts were calling Barber a reach as a RB2, but so far this season he has looked like a legitimate top tier fantasy runningback. His nose for the endzone is truly remarkable. He has scored at least one touchdown in each game so far this season, making the case that perhaps last season was not a fluke after all. He should have another big day against St. Louis’ 28th ranked rushing defense.

Sit:
Deangelo Williams, CAR (9.9 rating): If Marion Barber was undervalued on draft day, here’s a guy who was overvalued. Williams has been out-carried by Deshaun Foster in each of the first three games, and has yet to find the endzone. Foster seems to be a better fit for the Panthers’ new zone-blocking scheme. Foster cemented his lead role even more last week with a 122 yard, 2 TD effort. The RB duo will be lining up against Tampa Bay this weak, who seem to be playing much improved defense. The Bucs are 5th in the NFL in scoring defense, at 12.3 points per game.
 

Wide Receivers	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Randy Moss – NE	at CIN	18.2	0.9	9.1
Terrell Owens – DAL	vs STL	16.9	1.5	8.4
Chad Johnson – CIN	vs NE	16.2	2.1	8.3
Steve Smith – CAR	vs TB	15.8	2.1	8.0
Reggie Wayne – IND	vs DEN	15.7	2.5	8.3
Roy Williams – DET	vs CHI	15.6	2.1	7.7
Marvin Harrison – IND	vs DEN	15.5	2.6	8.1
TJ Houshmandzadeh – CIN	vs NE	15.2	2.3	7.5
Kevin Curtis – PHI	at NYG	15.2	2.6	7.8
Donald Driver – GB	at MIN	15.0	2.5	7.5
Torry Holt – STL	at DAL	14.7	3.0	7.7
Laveranues Coles – NYJ	at BUF	14.7	2.5	7.2
Anquan Boldin – ARI	vs PIT	14.5	3.1	7.6
Plaxico Burress – NYG	vs PHI	14.3	3.4	7.7
Chris Chambers – MIA	vs OAK	13.8	3.0	6.9
Jerricho Cotchery – NYJ	at BUF	13.6	3.0	6.6
Joey Galloway – TB	at CAR	13.6	3.1	6.7
Braylon Edwards – CLE	vs BAL	13.3	3.1	6.5
Wes Welker – NE	at CIN	13.3	2.9	6.1
Larry Fitzgerald – ARI	vs PIT	13.1	3.7	6.9
Ronald Curry – OAK	at MIA	13.1	3.5	6.6
Javon Walker – DEN	at IND	13.0	3.8	6.8
Deion Branch – SEA	at SF	13.0	3.6	6.6
Santonio Holmes – PIT	at ARI	12.5	3.8	6.2
Derrick Mason – BAL	at CLE	12.3	3.4	5.7
Bernard Berrian – CHI	at DET	12.2	4.3	6.5
Brandon Marshall – DEN	at IND	12.0	4.1	6.1
Greg Jennings – GB	at MIN	11.9	4.2	6.2
Vincent Jackson – SD	vs KC	11.9	4.2	6.1
Bobby Engram – SEA	at SF	11.5	4.1	5.6
Nate Burleson – SEA	at SF	11.3	4.0	5.3
Shaun McDonald – DET	vs CHI	11.1	4.4	5.5
Darrell Jackson – SF	vs SEA	11.0	4.5	5.5
Isaac Bruce – STL	at DAL	10.8	4.4	5.2
Lee Evans – BUF	vs NYJ	10.8	5.6	6.4
Roddy White – ATL	vs HOU	10.7	4.9	5.6
Mike Furrey – DET	vs CHI	10.5	4.6	5.1
Dwayne Bowe – KC	at SD	10.0	5.3	5.2
Mark Clayton – BAL	at CLE	9.8	5.3	5.1
James Jones – GB	at MIN	9.7	5.1	4.9
Marty Booker – MIA	vs OAK	9.5	5.3	4.7
Calvin Johnson – DET	vs CHI	9.5	5.5	5.0
Jerry Porter – OAK	at MIA	9.4	5.1	4.5
Joe Jurevicius – CLE	vs BAL	9.3	5.3	4.6
Reggie Brown – PHI	at NYG	9.3	5.5	4.7
Muhsin Muhammad – CHI	at DET	9.0	5.4	4.4
Arnaz Battle – SF	vs SEA	8.9	5.5	4.4
Amani Toomer – NYG	vs PHI	8.9	5.5	4.4
Nate Washington – PIT	at ARI	8.8	5.5	4.3
Kevin Walter – HOU	at ATL	8.5	5.9	4.4
Demetrius Williams – BAL	at CLE	8.5	5.6	4.1
Drew Carter – CAR	vs TB	8.4	5.1	3.5
Anthony Gonzalez – IND	vs DEN	8.3	5.7	4.0
Michael Jenkins – ATL	vs HOU	8.1	5.9	4.0
Brandon Stokely – DEN	at IND	8.0	6.0	4.0
Patrick Crayton – DAL	vs STL	7.9	6.1	4.0
Drew Bennett – STL	at DAL	7.8	6.1	3.9
Roscoe Parrish – BUF	vs NYJ	7.5	6.5	3.9
Donte Stallworth – NE	at CIN	7.3	6.1	3.4
Joe Horn – ATL	vs HOU	7.1	6.3	3.4
Buster Davis – SD	vs KC	7.0	6.6	3.7
Jabar Gaffney – NE	at CIN	6.9	6.3	3.3
Sam Aiken – BUF	vs NYJ	6.8	6.5	3.3
Troy Williamson – MIN	vs GB	6.6	6.9	3.5
Sammie Parker – KC	at SD	6.6	6.6	3.2
Glenn Holt – CIN	vs NE	6.5	6.3	2.8
Bryant Johnson – ARI	vs PIT	6.3	6.7	3.0
Michael Clayton – TB	at CAR	6.3	6.7	3.0
Rashied Davis – CHI	at DET	6.0	7.1	3.0
Bobby Wade – MIN	vs GB	5.9	7.1	3.0
Cedrick Wilson – PIT	at ARI	5.6	6.8	2.4
Maurice Stovall – TB	at CAR	5.5	7.2	2.7
Derek Hagan – MIA	vs OAK	4.9	7.3	2.3
Sidney Rice – MIN	vs GB	4.8	7.7	2.5
Andre Davis – HOU	at ATL	4.8	7.8	2.6

 
Start:
Laveranues Coles, NYJ (14.7 rating): In the two games that Chad Pennington has started, Coles has caught three of Penny’s four touchdown passes. Coles is a dependable second or third fantasy receiver that is a nice, safe play this week. The Bills 30th ranked passing defense has had trouble replacing departed cornerback Nate Clements.

Sit:
Reggie Brown, PHI (9.3 rating): The Eagles’ offense exploded last week against the Lions, but Reggie Brown did not get in on the act. Kevin Curtis and Jason Avant have been more productive thus far. The Giants’ pass defense has been much maligned at this point, but they played better against Washington, and I expect most NFC East games to be close and low-scoring. Most of you probably won’t be considering starting Brown anyway. Five catches in three games tells most fantasy owners all they need to know, I imagine.
 

Tight Ends	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Antonio Gates – SD	vs KC	17.3	1.5	8.8
Jeremy Shockey – NYG	vs PHI	15.5	2.5	8.0
Jason Witten – DAL	vs STL	15.4	2.4	7.8
Todd Heap – BAL	at CLE	15.1	2.3	7.4
Ben Watson – NE	at CIN	14.2	2.7	6.9
Tony Gonzalez – KC	at SD	14.1	3.4	7.4
Alge Crumpler – ATL	vs HOU	13.5	3.6	7.1
Dallas Clark – IND	vs DEN	13.5	3.3	6.8
Kellen Winslow – CLE	vs BAL	13.3	4.0	7.4
Owen Daniels – HOU	at ATL	13.3	3.4	6.7
Heath Miller – PIT	at ARI	12.7	3.7	6.4
Chris Baker – NYJ	at BUF	10.5	4.4	4.9
Bubba Franks – GB	at MIN	10.0	5.2	5.2
Desmond Clark – CHI	at DET	9.9	5.1	5.0
Greg Olsen – CHI	at DET	9.3	5.3	4.7
Randy McMichael – STL	at DAL	9.0	5.5	4.5
Jeff King – CAR	vs TB	9.0	5.3	4.3
David Lee – GB	at MIN	8.5	5.7	4.1
Alex Smith – TB	at CAR	8.4	5.7	4.1
Marcus Pollard – SEA	at SF	8.2	5.8	4.0
David Martin – MIA	vs OAK	8.1	6.0	4.1
Visanthe Shiancoe – MIN	vs GB	7.7	6.1	3.9
Daniel Graham – DEN	at IND	7.7	6.1	3.8
Leonard Pope – ARI	vs PIT	7.6	6.5	4.0
Kyle Brady – NE	at CIN	7.4	6.3	3.7
Ben Utecht – IND	vs DEN	7.0	6.1	3.0
Reggie Kelly – CIN	vs NE	6.9	6.2	3.1
Zach Miller – OAK	at MIA	6.8	6.5	3.3
Tony Scheffler – DEN	at IND	6.6	6.6	3.2
Matt Schobel – PHI	at NYG	6.4	6.6	3.0
Itula Mili – SEA	at SF	6.0	7.0	2.9
Robert Royal – BUF	vs NYJ	5.8	7.2	3.0
Jeb Putzier – HOU	at ATL	5.6	7.5	3.0
Anthony Becht – TB	at CAR	5.5	7.2	2.7
Anthony Fasano – DAL	vs STL	5.1	7.3	2.4

 
Start:
Dallas Clark, IND (13.5 rating): The Colts’ tight end has scored in each of his past two games. Clark has not shown that much consistency over his career, but it makes sense to start him while he’s hot. If he can keep this up he should certainly be looked at as an every week starter.

Sit:
Leonard Pope, ARI (7.6 rating): Pope showed a little promise in the first two weeks with a handful of catches and a touchdown. But after being held without a catch in Week 3, his match up with Pittsburgh this week doesn’t hold a lot of fantasy potential. Keep an eye on Pope as he could still make some noise if the Cardinals figure out what they are doing at quarterback.
 

Kickers	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Jeff Reed – PIT	at ARI	16.0	1.9	7.9
Stephen Gostkowski – NE	at CIN	15.7	2.4	8.1
Adam Vinatieri – IND	vs DEN	15.7	2.5	8.2
Nick Folk – DAL	vs STL	15.5	2.4	7.9
Matt Stover – BAL	at CLE	15.1	2.5	7.6
David Akers – PHI	at NYG	14.6	2.8	7.4
Jason Hanson – DET	vs CHI	14.5	2.7	7.3
Josh Brown – SEA	at SF	13.9	3.3	7.1
Shayne Graham – CIN	vs NE	13.6	3.4	7.0
Nate Kaeding – SD	vs KC	13.4	3.5	6.9
Robbie Gould – CHI	at DET	13.0	3.9	6.9
Jason Elam – DEN	at IND	12.6	3.7	6.4
Sebastian Janikowski – OAK	at MIA	12.6	3.9	6.5
Neil Rackers – ARI	vs PIT	12.5	4.0	6.5
Kris Brown – HOU	at ATL	12.5	3.5	6.0
Mike Nugent – NYJ	at BUF	12.5	3.8	6.2
Mason Crosby – GB	at MIN	12.4	3.7	6.1
Jay Feely – MIA	vs OAK	12.1	3.7	5.7
Jeff Wilkins – STL	at DAL	12.0	4.0	6.0
Ryan Longwell – MIN	vs GB	12.0	3.9	5.9
Joe Nedney – SF	vs SEA	12.0	4.1	6.1
Matt Bryant – TB	at CAR	11.9	4.4	6.3
Lawrence Tynes – NYG	vs PHI	11.8	4.3	6.1
John Kasay – CAR	vs TB	11.4	4.6	6.0
Phil Dawson – CLE	vs BAL	10.8	4.7	5.5
Rian Lindell – BUF	vs NYJ	10.1	4.8	4.9
Morten Andersen – ATL	vs HOU	10.0	5.3	5.3
Dave Rayner – KC	at SD	9.4	5.5	4.9

 
Start:
Matt Stover, BAL (15.1 rating): Stover has been a model of consistency for the Ravens. He has already knocked through eight field goals this year, and he has another good matchup coming up in the Browns.

Sit:
John Kasay, CAR (11.4 rating): The Panthers’ offense could have problems with Tampa Bay, especially if Jake Delhomme is unable to play. The Buccaneers 5th ranked scoring defense has only allowed three field goals on the season.
 

Team Defense	Opponent	Rating	Risk	Reward
Baltimore	at CLE	16.0	2.1	8.1
Pittsburgh	at ARI	14.9	2.5	7.4
Dallas	vs STL	14.5	2.9	7.4
Houston	at ATL	14.4	2.6	7.0
Green Bay	at MIN	14.2	2.7	7.0
Chicago	at DET	14.1	3.9	8.0
San Diego	vs KC	14.1	3.3	7.4
New England	at CIN	14.0	3.5	7.5
Indianapolis	vs DEN	12.4	4.0	6.4
Minnesota	vs GB	12.1	4.0	6.1
Oakland	at MIA	11.7	4.2	5.9
Seattle	at SF	11.6	4.0	5.6
Philadelphia	at NYG	11.4	4.3	5.7
Miami	vs OAK	11.0	4.6	5.6
Detroit	vs CHI	10.9	4.8	5.6
Carolina	vs TB	10.8	4.5	5.3
New York Jets	at BUF	10.7	4.8	5.6
Tampa Bay	at CAR	10.5	4.7	5.3
San Francisco	vs SEA	10.2	5.0	5.1
Kansas City	at SD	9.3	5.6	5.0
Cleveland	vs BAL	9.0	5.8	4.8
Atlanta	vs HOU	8.9	5.5	4.4
Buffalo	vs NYJ	8.3	6.1	4.4
Denver	at IND	8.0	6.0	4.0
New York Giants	vs PHI	7.1	6.6	3.8
Arizona	vs PIT	7.1	6.6	3.7
Cincinnati	vs NE	5.9	7.2	3.1
St. Louis	at DAL	5.5	7.6	3.1

 
Start:
Houston (14.4 rating): The Texans have surprised everyone en route to a 2-1 start, and the defense has certainly had their hand in it. Seven sacks, seven turnovers, and two touchdowns have put the Texans’ D on the fantasy map, and they have a great matchup this week against Atlanta. If you need a bye week fill-in, see if Houston is still on your league’s waiver wire.

Sit:
Denver (8.0 rating): Any time a defense goes into Indianapolis to play the Colts, you probably don’t want to start them on your fantasy team. The Colts are scoring 31 points a game behind Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai. The Broncos haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game yet, but I would expect that to change.

 
Special thanks to SwiperNoSwiping, bobbing_headz, madaslives911, m16a, knapplc, Jimboozie, MoDee, treat24, and dream_017 for their rankings and involvement with this week's article. For more insights and additional fine-tuning, visit our Who to Start/Bench forum section or listen to The Coach's Voice on Fantasy Cafe Radio.
 

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