Start & SitOctober 11, 2007


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Week 6

By Nick Hopkins

Week 5 had its share of good games, including a shocking last-minute comeback by the Cowboys on Monday Night. Now, Week 6 is on the horizon, and with it come a host of lineup dilemmas. Six teams are off this week; up to this point only four teams have been off each week. Any Colts, Broncos, Bills, Lions, Steelers, or 49ers in your lineup are going to have to be replaced. Don’t know who to bring up off the bench? The Cafe’s Week 6 Start & Sit is here to help!

Our system is based on two separate rankings: Risk and Reward. Each player or defense was given a statistical ranking for each of the two categories.

Risk is determined by anything that could negatively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as matchup, situation, and injuries.

Reward is determined by anything that could positively affect the player in question’s performance. This includes such things as talent, matchup, and situation.

The Ranking for the two categories is as follows:

Risk: Score of 0 being the lowest risk, 10 being the highest risk.
Reward: Score of 0 being lowest reward, 10 being the highest reward.

 

QuarterbacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
Tom Brady – NEat DAL16.13.09.1
Carson Palmer – CINat KC15.62.98.5
Donovan McNabb – PHIat NYJ13.54.17.6
Matt Hasselbeck – SEAvs NO13.53.57.0
Eli Manning – NYGat ATL13.54.07.5
Brett Favre – GBvs WAS13.14.57.6
Philip Rivers – SDvs OAK13.03.76.8
Kurt Warner – ARIvs CAR12.93.76.6
Derek Anderson – CLEvs MIA12.64.26.8
Tony Romo – DALvs NE12.65.07.6
Jason Campbell – WASat GB12.53.96.4
David Garrard – JACvs HOU12.04.16.1
Vince Young – TENat TB11.94.56.3
Matt Schaub – HOUat JAC11.74.86.5
Brian Griese – CHIvs MIN11.64.46.0
Daunte Culpepper – OAKat SD11.24.65.8
Drew Brees – NOat SEA11.24.65.8
Steve McNair – BALvs STL11.14.85.9
Jeff Garcia – TBvs TEN10.85.05.8
Cleo Lemon – MIAat CLE10.34.95.3
Chad Pennington – NYJvs PHI10.35.25.5
David Carr – CARat ARI9.95.45.3
Joey Harrington – ATLvs NYG9.75.55.3
Brodie Croyle – KCvs CIN9.64.54.1
Damon Huard – KCvs CIN9.65.45.0
Gus Frerotte – STLat BAL9.26.05.3
Tarvaris Jackson – MINat CHI8.45.84.1
Byron Leftwich – ATLvs NYG8.05.53.6
Kelly Holcomb – MINat CHI8.05.43.4
Josh McCown – OAKat SD7.25.32.5
Marc Bulger – STLat BAL2.58.40.9

 
Start:
Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (13.5 rating): Seattle’s offense as a whole was not able to get anything going against the Steelers. But up to that point Hass had been having a nice season, with seven touchdown passes in four games. One bad game against a good Pittsburgh defense is understandable. I expect a nice bounce-back game against the struggling Saints.

Sit:
Jeff Garcia, TB (10.8 rating): Garcia has been efficient for the Buccaneers this season. He’s only thrown four TDs but he has yet to throw an interception. I would expect a very pedestrian showing this week though, as the Bucs face off against Tennessee. The Titans’ pass defense has been strong, allowing only two touchdowns all year, while pulling down seven interceptions.
 

Running BacksOpponentRatingRiskReward
Ronnie Brown – MIAat CLE16.62.18.7
LaDainian Tomlinson – SDvs OAK16.42.69.0
Willis McGahee – BALvs STL15.23.18.3
Shaun Alexander – SEAvs NO14.43.57.9
Edgerrin James – ARIvs CAR14.13.67.7
Reggie Bush – NOat SEA13.83.77.5
Larry Johnson – KCvs CIN13.83.97.6
Brandon Jacobs – NYGat ATL13.43.97.3
Clinton Portis – WASat GB13.44.27.5
Adrian Peterson – MINat CHI13.24.37.5
Brian Westbrook – PHIat NYJ13.04.77.7
DeShaun Foster – CARat ARI12.24.56.7
Marion Barber – DALvs NE12.05.17.1
Sammy Morris – NEat DAL11.84.76.5
LenDale White – TENat TB11.34.86.1
Derrick Ward – NYGat ATL11.25.06.1
Jamal Lewis – CLEvs MIA10.95.36.1
Earnest Graham – TBvs TEN10.75.25.9
Maurice Jones-Drew – JACvs HOU10.65.35.9
Thomas Jones – NYJvs PHI10.65.25.8
Fred Taylor – JACvs HOU10.15.25.3
Rudi Johnson – CINat KC10.05.55.6
Warrick Dunn – ATLvs NYG10.05.15.1
Brian Leonard – STLat BAL9.86.05.8
Justin Fargas – OAKat SD9.85.35.1
Cedric Benson – CHIvs MIN9.85.65.4
DeAngelo Williams – CARat ARI9.85.14.9
LaMont Jordan – OAKat SD9.75.75.4
Michael Turner – SDvs OAK9.65.45.0
DeShawn Wynn – GBvs WAS9.65.65.2
Kenny Watson – CINat KC9.55.34.8
Chris Brown – TENat TB9.55.44.9
Julius Jones – DALvs NE9.45.75.1
Jerious Norwood – ATLvs NYG9.25.44.6
Jason Wright – CLEvs MIA9.05.34.3
Ahman Green – HOUat JAC8.85.94.7
Laurence Maroney – NEat DAL8.55.84.3
Chester Taylor – MINat CHI8.45.74.1
Ron Dayne – HOUat JAC8.46.14.5
Ladell Betts – WASat GB8.45.84.2
Correll Buckhalter – PHIat NYJ8.05.93.9
Leon Washington – NYJvs PHI8.06.34.3
Vernand Morency – GBvs WAS7.66.44.0
Aaron Stecker – NOat SEA7.36.13.4
Maurice Morris – SEAvs NO7.06.63.6
Michael Bennett – KCvs CIN6.86.43.2
Jesse Chatman – MIAat CLE6.76.43.1
Brandon Jackson – GBvs WAS6.56.73.2
Adrian Peterson – CHIvs MIN6.56.83.3
Marcel Shipp – ARIvs CAR6.46.73.0
Reuben Droughns – NYGat ATL6.46.73.1
Musa Smith – BALvs STL6.36.52.8
Greg Jones – JACvs HOU6.26.83.0
Tony Hunt – PHIat NYJ6.06.72.7
Ken Darby – TBvs TEN6.07.13.1
Kevin Faulk – NEat DAL5.97.02.8
Mike Anderson – BALvs STL5.86.82.6
Chris Henry – TENat TB5.47.12.5
Samkon Gado – HOUat JAC5.37.52.8
Jerome Harrison – CLEvs MIA5.27.22.4

 
Start:
Willis McGahee, BAL (15.2 rating): McGahee has quietly had a very good start to the season for Baltimore. He has recorded over 100 total yards in each game this season. If he could only find the endzone more often he would be an elite fantasy RB. He has a great shot to do that this week against St. Louis. The Rams are 28th in the NFL against the run, and have given up a league-high eight rushing touchdowns this year.

Sit:
Cedric Benson, CHI (9.8 rating): Benson is not having the season many had hoped for when they drafted the former Longhorn. The 220 pounder has only managed 3.0 yards per carry, with two touchdowns. In Week 6, he’s got as tough a matchup as you can get in the Minnesota Vikings. Led by defensive tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams, the Vikes are allowing a league-best 62 yards per game on the ground. They have not given up a single rushing touchdown to date.
 

Wide ReceiversOpponentRatingRiskReward
Randy Moss – NEat DAL16.22.78.9
Chad Johnson – CINat KC16.02.78.8
Larry Fitzgerald – ARIvs CAR15.03.08.0
Plaxico Burress – NYGat ATL14.93.28.1
TJ Houshmandzadeh – CINat KC14.43.47.8
Braylon Edwards – CLEvs MIA14.43.37.7
Donald Driver – GBvs WAS13.73.77.4
Steve Smith – CARat ARI13.73.77.4
Terrell Owens – DALvs NE13.73.97.5
Dwayne Bowe – KCvs CIN12.93.96.8
Laveranues Coles – NYJvs PHI12.93.66.5
Chris Chambers – MIAat CLE12.83.46.3
Torry Holt – STLat BAL12.44.67.0
Vincent Jackson – SDvs OAK12.34.06.3
Bobby Engram – SEAvs NO12.24.26.4
Kevin Curtis – PHIat NYJ12.14.36.4
Derrick Mason – BALvs STL12.04.36.3
Greg Jennings – GBvs WAS12.04.56.5
Jerricho Cotchery – NYJvs PHI11.94.16.0
Joey Galloway – TBvs TEN11.64.66.2
Donte Stallworth – NEat DAL11.54.76.2
Wes Welker – NEat DAL11.34.55.9
Ronald Curry – OAKat SD11.34.55.8
Antwaan Randle El – WASat GB11.34.76.0
Patrick Crayton – DALvs NE11.24.86.0
Marques Colston – NOat SEA11.14.96.1
Anquan Boldin – ARIvs CAR11.15.26.3
Nate Burleson – SEAvs NO11.04.85.8
Dennis Northcutt – JACvs HOU11.04.85.8
Andre Davis – HOUat JAC10.95.05.9
Bernard Berrian – CHIvs MIN10.74.55.2
Marty Booker – MIAat CLE10.64.65.2
Muhsin Muhammad – CHIvs MIN10.34.64.9
James Jones – GBvs WAS10.35.05.3
Reggie Brown – PHIat NYJ10.24.95.1
Jerry Porter – OAKat SD10.15.15.3
Roddy White – ATLvs NYG10.15.25.3
Brandon Jones – TENat TB9.85.14.9
Amani Toomer – NYGat ATL9.85.35.1
Michael Jenkins – ATLvs NYG9.55.24.6
Devery Henderson – NOat SEA9.45.65.0
Roydell Williams – TENat TB9.35.44.7
Joe Jurevicius – CLEvs MIA9.25.74.9
Santana Moss – WASat GB9.25.95.1
Sidney Rice – MINat CHI9.05.14.0
Troy Williamson – MINat CHI8.65.94.5
Sammie Parker – KCvs CIN8.65.64.2
Andre Johnson – HOUat JAC8.66.14.7
Bryant Johnson – ARIvs CAR8.55.74.2
Bobby Wade – MINat CHI8.35.63.9
Drew Bennett – STLat BAL8.35.94.2
Kevin Walter – HOUat JAC8.26.14.3
Reggie Williams – JACvs HOU8.25.84.0
Eric Moulds – TENat TB8.16.04.1
Mark Clayton – BALvs STL8.15.83.9
Drew Carter – CARat ARI8.06.04.0
Rashied Davis – CHIvs MIN7.95.63.5
Derek Hagan – MIAat CLE7.85.83.5
Ernest Wilford – JACvs HOU7.86.03.8
Buster Davis – SDvs OAK7.86.03.8
Demetrius Williams – BALvs STL7.66.23.8
Matt Jones – JACvs HOU7.56.33.8
Brandon Lloyd – WASat GB7.46.03.4
Antonio Chatman – CINat KC7.36.33.7
Ike Hilliard – TBvs TEN7.36.53.7
DJ Hackett – SEAvs NO7.26.53.7
Jacoby Jones – HOUat JAC7.07.04.0
Terrance Copper – NOat SEA6.56.93.4
Dwayne Jarrett – CARat ARI6.36.63.0
Jabar Gaffney – NEat DAL6.26.83.0
Isaac Bruce – STLat BAL6.17.53.6
Joe Horn – ATLvs NYG5.87.02.8
Michael Clayton – TBvs TEN5.87.22.9
Robert Meachum – NOat SEA5.47.22.6
Steve Smith – NYGat ATL4.57.82.2

 
Start:
Dwayne Bowe, KC (12.9 rating): I generally do not trust rookie wide receivers, but Bowe is certainly hot right now. The rookie has three touchdowns in five games, and has gone over 70 yards in each of his past three contests. And this week he plays a Cincinnati team that is the perfect matchup for a WR. A weak secondary means a good chance of putting up big numbers through the air, and a great offense means that Kansas City will likely have to throw the ball a lot to keep up. I see no reason for Bowe not to continue his hot start this week.

Sit:
Antwaan Randle El, WAS (11.3 rating): Randle El is starting to look like the receiver Washington paid all that money for last off-season. But this is not a good week to start him. He pulled his hamstring last week, and while he says he will be ready to play, I think there’s a good chance he is a late scratch this week. Even if he does suit up, he will likely to be limited, and he will be lining up against either Charles Woodson or Al Harris – two very good corners.
 

Tight EndsOpponentRatingRiskReward
Antonio Gates – SDvs OAK16.42.69.0
Tony Gonzalez – KCvs CIN15.22.98.1
Jason Witten – DALvs NE14.24.18.3
Kellen Winslow – CLEvs MIA13.83.97.7
Ben Watson – NEat DAL13.84.07.7
Jeremy Shockey – NYGat ATL13.64.48.0
Desmond Clark – CHIvs MIN12.93.86.7
Todd Heap – BALvs STL11.85.37.0
Alge Crumpler – ATLvs NYG11.84.36.1
Greg Olsen – CHIvs MIN11.74.36.0
Chris Baker – NYJvs PHI10.75.15.8
Owen Daniels – HOUat JAC10.65.35.9
Marcus Pollard – SEAvs NO10.35.05.3
Jeff King – CARat ARI10.35.15.5
Chris Cooley – WASat GB9.95.25.1
Donald Lee – GBvs WAS9.95.35.2
Bubba Franks – GBvs WAS9.85.65.4
Alex Smith – TBvs TEN9.85.85.6
Randy McMichael – STLat BAL9.15.74.8
Leonard Pope – ARIvs CAR9.05.34.3
Justin Peelle – MIAat CLE8.95.54.3
Eric Johnson – NOat SEA8.85.84.5
David Martin – MIAat CLE8.45.33.7
Marcedes Lewis – JACvs HOU8.35.63.9
Bo Scaife – TENat TB8.35.74.0
LJ Smith – PHIat NYJ8.16.04.1
Zach Miller – OAKat SD8.15.33.5
Visanthe Shiancoe – MINat CHI7.95.53.4
Matt Schobel – PHIat NYJ7.95.63.5
Ben Troupe – TENat TB7.46.23.5
George Wrighster – JACvs HOU7.36.03.4
Reggie Kelly – CINat KC6.86.53.3
Anthony Fasano – DALvs NE6.06.62.6
Kyle Brady – NEat DAL5.97.03.0
Itula Mili – SEAvs NO5.57.12.6
Anthony Becht – TBvs TEN5.37.32.6
Jeb Putzier – HOUat JAC5.17.42.5

 
Start:
Desmond Clark, CHI (12.9 rating): In the two games since Brian Griese has taken over as the Bears’ starting quarterback, Clark has caught ten passes for over 100 yards and two touchdowns. Coincidence? Possibly. But with all the players off this week, Clark is looking like a very viable option.

Sit:
Donald Lee, GB (9.9 rating): Lee has some potential, but as long as he shares the job with Bubba Franks he is going to be hit or miss each week. I think a miss is more likely this week against a Washington defense that is firing on all cylinders right now. The Skins are only allowing 13 points per game, tied for third in the NFL.
 

KickersOpponentRatingRiskReward
Matt Stover – BALvs STL14.72.97.6
Stephen Gostkowski – NEat DAL14.23.57.7
Nate Kaeding – SDvs OAK14.13.37.4
Neil Rackers – ARIvs CAR14.03.27.2
Shayne Graham – CINat KC13.93.27.1
Mason Crosby – GBvs WAS13.34.17.4
Josh Brown – SEAvs NO13.23.56.7
Lawrence Tynes – NYGat ATL13.03.76.7
Kris Brown – HOUat JAC13.04.17.0
Robbie Gould – CHIvs MIN13.03.86.8
Nick Folk – DALvs NE12.84.47.3
Jay Feely – MIAat CLE12.73.76.4
David Akers – PHIat NYJ12.63.76.3
Phil Dawson – CLEvs MIA12.53.86.4
Shaun Suisham – WASat GB12.04.06.1
Dave Rayner – KCvs CIN11.93.95.8
John Kasay – CARat ARI11.94.16.0
Rob Bironas – TENat TB11.44.76.1
John Carney – JACvs HOU11.44.15.6
Jeff Wilkins – STLat BAL11.34.25.6
Olindo Mare – NOat SEA11.34.76.0
Morten Andersen – ATLvs NYG11.24.75.9
Matt Bryant – TBvs TEN11.04.75.7
Ryan Longwell – MINat CHI10.94.65.5
Sebastian Janikowski – OAKat SD10.54.65.1
Mike Nugent – NYJvs PHI10.55.05.5

 
Start:
Nate Kaeding, SD (14.1 rating): The disappointing Chargers finally got it together last week, as they pounded the Broncos 41-3. If they can sustain this kind of offensive production (or something close to it) Kaeding should be able to be put up great numbers from week to week.

Sit:
Jeff Wilkins, STL (11.3 rating): The Rams are bad right now. Really bad. Jeff Wilkins is a good kicker, but I just don’t see him getting very many opportunities with that banged up St. Louis offense. Especially not this week in Baltimore.
 

Team DefenseOpponentRatingRiskReward
Baltimorevs STL15.52.57.9
Chicagovs MIN15.33.28.5
Seattlevs NO14.93.18.0
Minnesotaat CHI14.33.47.7
New York Giantsat ATL14.03.57.5
San Diegovs OAK13.53.77.3
Philadelphiaat NYJ13.33.56.9
New Englandat DAL12.64.87.3
Jacksonvillevs HOU12.54.26.6
Arizonavs CAR12.14.26.3
Washingtonat GB11.84.66.4
Houstonat JAC11.54.35.8
Green Bayvs WAS11.54.66.1
Tennesseeat TB11.04.75.7
Tampa Bayvs TEN10.94.85.7
Cincinnatiat KC10.34.44.7
Kansas Cityvs CIN9.85.95.7
Carolinaat ARI9.75.35.0
New York Jetsvs PHI9.35.44.7
Oaklandat SD9.35.95.2
Dallasvs NE8.96.35.2
Clevelandvs MIA8.95.14.0
Miamiat CLE8.56.14.6
Atlantavs NYG8.55.94.4
New Orleansat SEA7.95.83.6
St. Louisat BAL7.65.63.2

 
Start:
New York Giants (14.0 rating): The Giants’ defense was pasted in the first two weeks of the season, but they have won three straight games since then, and we now know that the two teams they lost to (Dallas and Green Bay) have pretty good offenses. New York’s D showed what they were capable of when the shut down the Eagles in Week 4, thanks to an amazing 6-sack performance by Osi Umenyiora. Atlanta comes to town this week, with a struggling offense that the Giants should be able to capitalize on.

Sit:
Dallas (8.9 rating): The Patriots-Cowboys game this weekend is certainly one of the more intriguing matchups, but not for defensive reasons. The Pats and the Boys are #1 and #2 in the NFL in scoring, respectively. You aren’t going to want to have the Cowboys’ defense in your starting lineup against Tom Brady and Randy Moss.

 
Special thanks to SwiperNoSwiping, knapplc, treat24, dream_017, latraffic, PMoneyTKE, WaCougMBS, Jimboozie, Fatfoot, madaslives911, and SJNez46 for their rankings and involvement with this week's article. For more insights and additional fine-tuning, visit our Who to Start/Bench forum section or listen to The Coach's Voice on Fantasy Cafe Radio.
 
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