Black Sunday: Volume II

So you followed my advice from week 1, made all the necessary corrections, were confident in your team, but your opponent had Steve Smith, Carson Palmer, and Edgerrin James and more than tripled your score. Don’t panic! It is still only week 2; plenty of time to right the ship. And hey, the Titans won 8 games in a row last year, why can’t you? Just like last week, this week’s column will give you skill position news, some players to look for, matchups to exploit, and general strategy tidbits that can help you turn the season around. So without further ado, here we go:

- Andre Johnson may have sprained his PCL on Sunday. This is sad news from one of my favorite receivers in the midst of a breakout season. He is listed as doubtful for this weekend, but the injury might span multiple weeks. In looking to replace him, look no further than his replacement in the lineup - Jacoby Jones. You may remember Jones as the flashy rookie making big plays on returns and in the passing game all throughout the preseason. He still returns kicks, and if your league credits you with that yardage and/or touchdowns, make good use of him.
- Plaxico Burress sprained a pinky finger in addition to his ankle. He insisted he would play this weekend against Green Bay, but these nagging injuries cutting into his production are nothing new with him. That coupled with Eli’s still tentative status (he certainly didn’t wow me yesterday) make Burress a shaky WR1-2 play. Also, the lesser Steve Smith joins New York’s impressive list of walking wounded, as he broke a shoulder blade. No timetable was set for his return, but Sinorice Moss might finally be fantasy relevant going forward if Plaxico misses time.
- Tavaris Jackson and Troy Williamson will both likely miss this week with a groin and hamstring injury, respectively. But if you were starting them on your fantasy team you have bigger lineup problems than this article can help you with.
- List of injured players likely to suit up this weekend: Kevin Jones, Chad Pennington, and Steve McNair. Kevin Jones is certainly the most interesting in this bunch. He has a lot of value in PPR leagues, but with Kitna throwing 50 times a game and a tough Eagles defense this week, temper your expectations for his rushing totals.

Waiver Wire Gems: Most waiver wires are wearing thin, but there are still some good players on the waiver wires of some leagues.

- Derrick Mason - WR Baltimore - He had a silly number of looks for the second week in a row. It is a good sign that both Boller and McNair target him heavily, as you will get the upside regardless of who steers the ship.
- Mark Clayton - WR Baltimore - Two Baltimore receivers? Have I gone mad? Probably, but Mark Clayton is finally ready to rejoin the starting lineup after he had been treated with kid gloves all season as he recovered from a minor injury. He appears 100% now, and that fact coupled with a minor injury to usurper Demetrius Williams will mean increased production for the sleeper receiver. A frustrated owner may have dumped him in your league, make them pay for their shortsightedness.
- Nate Burleson - WR Seattle - DJ Hackett is still banged up, and Burleson shined in relief, showing us the athletic prowess we have coveted throughout his whole career. His value is obviously tied to DJ Hackett’s injury, so watch the situation closely.
- Jeff Garcia - QB TB - He won’t set the world on fire, but his performance against the Saints has to at least put him back on the radar. He is not flashy, but is a wily veteran who can still make plays with his feet, and has a deep receiving corps around him. He makes a solid QB2 play given the right matchups (and yes, the Saints are the right matchup).
- Correll Buckhalter - RB Philadelphia - Steals a few carries from Westbrook every week, and still might be the goal line back in Philly (we don’t have a big enough sample size to know who Reid will go to).
- Adrian Peterson - RB Chicago - The only player named Adrian Peterson still on your waiver wire might still have fantasy value. If Benson continues to flounder, this might degenerate into a 50/50 timeshare. Peterson has a different skill set than Benson (he has better hands), so might be a good complement. He is a deep sleeper at this point.

Some more general strategy:

Think outside of the box

If you are having huge injury problems and do not have replacements, you have to try to scrape points wherever you can. Perfect example: In my high stakes league, I looked at my opponent’s lineup this past Sunday and saw Ted Ginn Jr. in his flex spot. I gave a hearty guffaw before writing off the game as an easy win. However upon closer examination our league gives points per return yards and gives a plateau bonus after 100. So Miami’s incompetence turned into massive return yardage for Ginn, and he put up 9 points for my opponent. Find quirks in your rule system to find waiver wire gems.

When all else fails, resort to robbery

A touchdown is a touchdown, your standings don’t care if the running back “earned it” or not. There are several waiver-wire caliber backs who are in prime position to vulture some cheap scores, here are a few:

- Sammy Morris - RB New England - I heard on the news today that the International Coalition of Laurence Maroney Owners has contracted the mob to put a hit on Sammy Morris. This is because Morris continues to garner about 40% of the team’s carries. Adding salt to the wound is the fact that Morris was the one who converted the touchdown on a key New England drive after Lo-Mo had done all the legwork. Morris may have a better build to get the tough yard, so this trend may continue.
- Cecil Sapp - RB Denver - Travis Henry continues to look dominant between the 20s, but has yet to score. It was very telling that Cecil Sapp got the rushing touchdown on a key Denver drive on Sunday. I think Mike Shanahan laughs in bed at night thinking of all the fantasy owners he angers every week, so this trend is likely to continue.
- Mike Karney - RB NO - The burly fullback punched one in after Reggie Bush floundered from up close. They seemed to look to Bush first, but Karney might get a few cheap touchdowns going forward. Deuce McAllister was a mere afterthought at the goal line.

Utilize Matchups

Did anyone happen to watch the Bengals vs. the Browns on Sunday? If you missed it, you missed the worst defensively played game in recent memory. 11 Touchdown passes were thrown in the game. I will outline below which defenses blew it in week 2, as well as who will benefit from their incompetence week 3:

• Oakland vs. Cleveland, - Lamont Jordan’s career resurgence should continue against the lowly Browns. Other fantasy notables are Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter (who caught a long TD pass in week 2) as well as Daunte Culpepper if he starts.
• Seattle vs. Cincinnati - Deion Branch has had a quiet two weeks, but look for that to change vs. the newly-reformed Bungles. Sleeper Alert: Nate Burleson could break some deep plays this week, and is a solid WR3 play. Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander are particularly strong plays this week.
• Redskins vs. Giants - Offenses have moved the ball at will against the Giants through two weeks, and look for that trend to continue in week 3. They gave up a big score to Bubba Franks in week 2, so look for Chris Cooley to find the endzone for the second straight week. Santana Moss and Clinton Portis are strong plays as WR and RB 2s, respectively. Sleeper Alert: Antwaan Randle El has been playing like a man possessed. He found the endzone in week 1, and got stopped just short on a pretty play vs. the Eagles. Look for him to have another solid game against the Giants.

In addition to my normal column next week, I want to have an email Question and Answer. Email questions about fantasy football strategy, real football, video games, or life in general to esb37@cornell.edu and I will answer them next week. Good luck and don’t forget to bring a towel.

(13 votes, average: 3.92 out of 5)  Loading ... Questions or comments for Erik? Post them in the Cafe Forums! Want to see your own fantasy wisdom published? Check out the Cafe's Pencil & Paper section!