Black Sunday

You’ve done all your homework and spent the past two months learning such meaningful facts as Selvin Young’s college yards per carry average (as a point of humor, it is 4.3) and Matt Schaub’s preseason QB rating. You’ve even looked at Clinton Portis’ injury report more than Joe Gibbs. That’s when the inexplicable happens. The season begins, and with it’s birth comes the death of many preseason predictions.

All of the planning in the world cannot prepare you for a sprained MCL on the 6th play of the season (thank you, Brandon Jacobs) or a bust first rounder. That’s what this weekly column is all about – what to do when the unthinkable happens and your plans go out the window.

First, here are the top five skill player and fantasy relevant news tidbits from Sunday:
1. Brandon Jacobs will miss three to five weeks with a sprained MCL. Derrick Ward looked good in relief so monitor this situation closely.
2. Eli Manning has a “shoulder bruise”, but the team’s body language points to something much more serious. He might be out indefinitely.
3. Orlando Pace may miss the season which equals bad news for Bulger, Holt, and Steven Jackson.
4. Chester Taylor may be shut down for a few weeks with an oblique contusion. This may become a non-issue if Adrian Peterson continues to put up top 10 numbers going forward.
5. Chad Pennington limped off the field with an apparent ankle sprain on Sunday. He may miss a few weeks but is probably only a second to third string quarterback in most leagues anyway.

I will now outline a series of guidelines to help rookies avoid some common mistakes:

1. Watch your players closely on game day.
Many people in cutthroat leagues love to grab the handcuff of another player’s elite running back. A good example Sunday is Derrick Ward. If you see your stud leave the game, grab his backup immediately. Don’t give your opposition a free starting running back.
Note: You won’t have to worry about this as much if your league takes advantage of waivers that lock players at the start of each game, but if you don’t have a waiver system in place, be prepared to be near a computer on game day.

2. Trust your stars.
Yes, I know Laurence Maroney put up 3 points in most scoring formats and that Steven Jackson fumbled twice, but don’t panic. Many inexperienced players are tempted to trade their stars after a few bad weeks for a lowball offer. While Ronald Curry for Lee Evans might look tempting after week 1, it will certainly hurt you in the long run. The bottom line is never trade from a position of weakness. I would take this a step further, never trade on equal footing. Only make a deal involving one of your top picks when you are notably improving your overall team. I would rather have a team of slumping superstars than Ronald Curry and his band of misfits.

3. Scour the Waiver Wire.
It might be hard to believe, but there are usually relevant fantasy players sitting unattended on your waiver wire. Below is a list of guys I think are worth a look.

One man’s loss is another man’s game (injury opportunities):
Derrick Ward – RB, NYG – The Giants seem committed to inexplicably keep Reuben Droughns as a fullback, and it is hard to argue with results. Droughns blocked well and Ward amassed over 100 total yards and a touchdown against Dallas on Sunday night. Jacobs looks to be out three to four weeks, so grab him if he’s still available.
Michael Pittman – RB, TB – Cadillac’s flat tire may take longer than a week to fix, as the team appears to be preparing to be without him this week. Pittman is a wily veteran and a good receiver out of the backfield, so grab him if you can. Temper your expectations this week, as he faces a Philly defense that mauled the Packers in week one, but if Cadillac misses more time he could be a good bye week fill in.

Sleepers who have awakened:
Ronald Curry – WR, OAK – Although I poked fun at him earlier in this column, I still think there is notable fantasy upside here. For those of you who are unaware, I predicted Jerry Porter to have a breakout season in the improved Oakland offense led by Lane Kiffin. It seems as though the season I predicted for Porter may in fact fall to Curry. Curry’s physical gifts were never in question, but he was blocked by Randy Moss and a lethargic offense in seasons past. He looks poised for a monster year and should be owned in all leagues.
Eric Johnson – TE, NO – I liked Johnson as a 49er, and picked him on most of my teams for a deep discount tight end. Johnson missed all of 2006 with an injury, but looked fully recovered on Thursday. If New Orleans continues to struggle offensively, look for Drew Brees to target the burly Johnson frequently over the middle of the field. The only concern here is the multitude of weapons in the offense.
Jason Avant – WR, PHI – Avant looks to have taken over the Eagles slot receiver role, and he excelled in the preseason and in week one, hauling in McNabb’s only touchdown. Avant’s size should make him a target in the redzone despite McNabb’s tendency to spread the ball around. His production will be tied to the Eagles offense as a whole, and if the week one trend continues, there is cause for alarm, but for now jump on Avant.
Brandon Marshall and Brandon Stokely – WRs, DEN – Jay Cutler put up solid numbers against the decent Bills secondary, and spread the ball pretty equally among his targets. Javon Walker had a monster day, but Stokely and Marshall both had 50+ yards and Marshall scored a TD. Marshall was a deep sleeper according to many this preseason, and it appears like he will be a decent third to fourth wide receiver in deeper leagues. Grab either one of these guys if they are available.

4. Make a trade.
In many ways, this is the inverse of the first guideline. I told you that the way to win is to trust in your stars. On the flipside of that, you should acquire the stars of other players that are losing stock. Here are a list of week one temporary busts that are good buy low candidates:

Laurence Maroney – RB, NE – Although the numbers don’t show it, Maroney came close to busting off some huge runs against the Jets. Samie Parker stole some carries, but he is a journeyman at best. All the backs figure to get some action around the goal line, but Maroney is clearly the most talented of the bunch. He is probably at the low point of his value right now, so pull the trigger if you can.
Lee Evans – WR, BUF – Buffalo was facing the best secondary (on paper at least) in the NFL Sunday, so it is no surprise that Evans floundered. He is arguably one of the best athletes at WR in the league, and will put up monster numbers this year.
Ronnie Brown – RB, MIA – I was concerned when I heard that Jesse Chatman might steal some carries, and was horrified on Sunday when it was almost a 50/50 split. Still, Brown is too talented a rusher and receiver to not be the focal point of this offense, so buy low if you can.

5. Don’t be afraid to end a love affair.
We all do it. We find a player in the preseason, look at his massive potential, and fall in love. The problem arises when a person becomes too attached. This prospect rides the bench week after week, still waiting on his first carry or reception of the year. If this sounds familiar, you should end the love affair immediately. Never let being attached to Jacoby Jones or Demetrius Williams get in the way of owning one of your handcuffs, it will only hurt you in the end.

Hope this information helps struggling owners turn things around. I’ll have plenty of new information next week.

 
Erik is 20 years old and a student at Cornell University. He first started playing fantasy sports 8 years ago, and has been in multiple leagues and had multiple championships since. He has a lot of insight as to what makes a successful fantasy team, as well as mistakes that rookies make. You can find him in the Cafe Forums where he posts as cyberer.
 

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