Black Sunday: Looking Ahead to Week 4

Another week in the trenches, and hopefully another win for your fantasy squad. As usual I am going to wrap-up Week 3’s action and give you vital information that can help you win in Week 4. Lot’s of advice in last week’s column panned out really well, so hopefully the trend will continue.

Anyway enough foreplay, let’s get to the News from Week 3:

• Ken Whisenhunt finally caved into the pressure to win now in Arizona by benching Matt Leinart after two and a half games of inconsistent play. Warner came in and excelled, making Anquan Boldin owners very happy in the process. Unfortunately, Warner’s great fantasy outing was largely wasted, because the only person who started Kurt Warner on their fantasy team was Kurt Warner himself. Warner is a more polished and proven NFL player, but Leinart is definately the future. Keep an eye on the situation as it plays out, but for now keep both QBs on the bench until things are sorted out.

• Speaking of pressure to win, Lovie Smith finally made the move that fans and media alike have been calling for since last season – benching “Wrecks” Grossman, whose play of late has been gross, man. Contrary to appearances though, Bears WRs might actually take a step back in value, as Griese is better suited to a balanced attack and does not have Grossman’s “air it out” mindset. Still the offense has nowhere to go but up. Griese if he starts the rest of the way will be a borderline QB2 and is worthy of spot starts, especially this week against the Lions.

• Deuce McAllister is out for the season. Reggie Bush owners rejoice! Aaron Stecker will get some of the carries Deuce otherwise would have gotten, but Bush will certainly see an uptick in touches. He also stands to see more TDs without Deuce around.

• The walking wounded at WR expanded this week. Hines Ward will likely miss 1-2 weeks with a mysterious knee injury that originally was deemed a bruise but is apparently more serious. Calvin Johnson may miss a game with a back bruise. Monitor this situation. If Calvin does not play Shaun McDonald is an even stronger play than usual, although neither has a particularly good matchup against the Bears. Andre Johnson looks to be out 2-4 more weeks after saying to reporters this week that recovering is like “learning to walk again.” Not very promising.

• The Rams are battling the Saints for the title of most disappointing offense of the last 10 years. Orlando Pace is out, Bulger is banged up, and now Steven Jackson tears his groin and is likely out for 2-4 weeks. Brian Leonard will get all the carries and is a must-add in all leagues, but with the offense struggling it would be wise to temper expectations.

• Finally, probably the only other injury news here involving a first round pick, Rudi Johnson is likely to miss Monday Night’s game with the Patriots with a hamstring injury. He struggled mightily Sunday even before the injury, and Kenny Watson looked sharp. Maybe Rudi’s heavy workload is catching up with him. No cause for alarm yet, but if Watson excels against the Patriots he might earn a permanent niche in the offense.

• Brandon Jacobs will likely miss 1-2 more games, but with the excellent play of Derrick Ward of late, he might be involved in a timeshare even when he is healthy. Jacobs will still get all the TDs so he is the more valuable fantasy commodity. This is the last chance to buy low.

• Ahman Green is probably out this weekend. The Dayne/Gado timeshare that is likely to result from that won’t help any fantasy owners.

Waiver Wire Gems

• Brian Leonard – figures to get the vast majority of Jackson’s carries while he is out. Must add in all formats.

• Derrick Mason – I keep recommending him, and he keeps finishing in the top 10 in looks week after week. If they throw to him this much his production will continue.

• Kenny Watson – The announcement of whether Rudi will be healthy enough to start will likely not be made until Monday, so this is a risky play for fantasy owners. However if I had to bet I would bet on Rudi not playing, so use Watson if you need a running back. I like Watson even if he does not start this week, because it appears that Rudi might be slowing down. Stash Watson away, he might yet pay huge dividends in that system.

• Nate Burleson – The big plays keep coming from him. You have to keep playing him until that changes. He had a lot of looks in week three.

Market Watch

Rising Stock – players who are finally producing

• Laurence Maroney – finally put up big numbers, even if the Pats are determined to vulture all of his touchdowns. Maroney ran hard, had a great YPC average. The TDs will come, and he may yet be a RB1 when all is said and done.
• Ronnie Brown – Finally busted out with a Brian Westbrook-esque game against the Jets. He showed us why he is so valuable in PPR leagues.
• Kevin Curtis – Easy to put up big numbers when the defense decides not to cover you. Clearly was McNabb’s primary option on Sunday, which is a good sign. He should be a WR 2-3 going forward.

Falling Stock – players who are underproducing, may be worthy of a buy low
• Ladanian Tomlinson – found the endzone in week three, but still struggled on the ground. This is probably the low point in Tomlinson’s value, so buy him if you can, whatever the price. LT is still the league’s best player, so I would not hesitate to give up my RB1 and more to get him. Remember he has traditionally started slow.
• Larry Johnson – he is too good to be this bad. He has shown some promising signs, so buy low if you can.
• Santana Moss – big plays are bound to come soon, and he has looked solid in the early going.

Rock Bottom – players who at this point might not even be worthy of a buy low
• Lee Evans – With Losman out, Evans may be the bust of the year. I wouldn’t touch him in any format until he at least shows me something.
• Maurice Jones Drew – a trendy pick before the season, MJD has seen his touches drop dramatically in favor of the more stable veteran Fred Taylor. MJD has struggled in limited work and lost a key fumble in week three.

Matchup Madness
I picked the Giants, Browns and Bengals defenses to continue to be lit up in week 3. Here are my revised matchups to exploit for week 4:

• Patriots vs. Bengals – Start every Patriot player that you normally would and expect big games.
• Philadelphia vs. NYG – New York’s defense came up huge vs. the Redskins, but I am not convinced. I look for McNabb and co. to shred the secondary. Look for Reggie Brown to finally make an impact. Sleeper Alert Eagles TE Matt Schoebel is a strong play this week, as the Giants have given up big scores to TEs this season.
• Chicago vs. Detroit – Detroit’s defense is now on my list after giving up 56 points to the Eagles. Look for Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian to have big days, as well as Cedrick Benson.
• Baltimore vs. Cleveland – The Browns defense was not horrible in week three, but still gave up 26 points to the Raiders. Expect Baltimore to gouge this defense. Sleeper Alert Kyle Boller and Derrick Mason are both great plays this week. McGahee also should have a big day.

Finally, the mail bag

Erik,
I am in a 10 team league that counts points and yardage only, Stallworth is my WR3 and I need help at TE (I have Alge Crumpler). I have Rudi, Portis, Lynch and Brandon Jackson at RB. Do you drop Daniel Graham for Owen Daniels? Which of these Free Agent WRs do you like- Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, Bobby Engram, Derrick Mason, or Nate Burleson.
-Ankush

Hey Ankush – I would dump Daniel Graham and maybe Brandon Jackson and pick up some WR help. I think both Burleson and Mason are solid receivers going forward, and you can’t wait forever for Stallworth to pan out. You are really stacked at running back in my opinion, so maybe you can try to deal some of that depth for help elsewhere. I think you should stay the course with Alge, although he will never have the value that he did with Vick forcing the ball to him. Hope this answers your question and good luck!

(Sent on Saturday)
Hey,
I have to start either Derrick Ward or Lamont Jordan for week 3. I don’t like Ward’s matchup but I am afraid that Lamont’s touches will go down.
-Ed

Hey Ed – I emailed this response to you already, but I hope my recommendation to start Lamont panned out for you. He had another fine day. I think if you have Ward and Lamont as your RB 2 and 3, then you are in a great position. However both RBs face the threat of a timeshare down the stretch- with Dominique Rhodes in Oakland and Brandon Jacobs in New York both returning soon. I would try to deal Ward for help while his stock is still high.

 
That about does it for this week’s Black Sunday. I hope to hear from more people for next week’s mail bag. Have a good week and maybe I’ll see you in the trenches come Sunday.

 
Erik is 20 years old and a student at Cornell University. He first started playing fantasy sports 8 years ago, and has been in multiple leagues and had multiple championships since. He has a lot of insight as to what makes a successful fantasy team, as well as mistakes that rookies make. You can find him in the Cafe Forums where he posts as cyberer.
 

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