Should LT Be Your Number One Draft Pick?

Nine out of ten mock drafts have LaDainian Tomlinson as the #1 pick on the board (the Cafe’s 2007 May Mock Draft included). But should he really be number one? I admit it is hard to deny the impact his MVP season had last year on fantasy teams around the world, but can lightning strike twice (couldn’t resist the “Bolts” pun) for number 21 for back-to-back seasons? Not that his two previous season leading up to his 2006 explosion were half-bad either. With 18 and 17 rushing touchdowns each season respectively, Tomlinson has been making an impact on fantasy football leagues for awhile now. But does this impressive trend look poised to continue? That is the million dollar question and one I decided to look into as the month of August and the onset of fantasy football drafts rapidly approaches.

My findings were not reassuring. Running backs tend to historically underperform in the years following their career pinnacle performances. Take 2005’s MVP Shaun Alexander as an immediate example. After setting the touchdown record in 2005, Alexander scored an excruciatingly disappointing seven rushing touchdowns in 2006. Yes, he was limited due to injury, but even in the games he appeared in, his performance was not comparable to the explosiveness he displayed the season prior. Not convinced with one example? How about some others?

• Priest Holmes – 27 rushing touchdowns in 2003, 14 in 2004
• Marshal Faulk – 18 rushing TDs in 2000, 12 in 2001
• Terrell Davis – 21 rushing TDs in 1998, 2 in 1999
• Barry Sanders – 16 rushing TDs in 1991, 9 in 1992
• Emmitt Smith – 25 rushing TDs in 1995, 12 in 1996

Scary trend. Injury was the major factor for most but age is also something that jumped out at me. The average age of the above mentioned in their disappointing seasons was 27, not a surprise as that is pretty much the unofficial cutoff for running backs to maintain performance. Just so you’re aware, this season Tomlinson is 28.

But even if you don’t believe in history repeating itself statistically or that age is a factor in sports, a few other points around LaDainian Tomlinson have me wondering if league managers won’t be betting on the wrong horse if they burn their first/firsts on LT. For starters, Tomlinson has a new head coach. Although nothing could appear worse than last season’s “Marty-ball”, the entrance of coaching retread Norv Turner simply does not inspire faith in me. Yes, he does occasionally find the go switch on offenses but what is he famous for developing? Quarterbacks. Congratulations Philip Rivers (sleeper alert!), tough luck LT.

Then there is the restless young up-and-comer Michael Turner. San Diego management has promised to let Turner be a free agent after the season is over, which translates to a “contract year” scenario for him. Turner will be playing for all the marbles whenever he gets his hands on the ball and although he probably won’t get many touches, he will definitely get enough and do enough to eat into Tomlinson’s stats.

The bottom line is this – I’m not telling you not to go get LaDainian Tomlinson for your fantasy football team. If you’re first up to the table and you want to pick him to build your dream team around, more power to you. Who knows? If I get the golden ticket and have first dibs, I might cave in under the peer pressure and draft him first too. I tend to habitually go a little half-baked on draft day anyway. But before pulling the trigger, consider the data. Recognize that the odds against his having yet another five-star season are long and unlikely. Then follow your gut and don’t look back. Good luck!

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