Evaluating the “Running Back Theory”

For those who are not experts in fantasy football strategy, the “Running Back Theory” has been a prevalent fantasy draft approach in years past. The main tenet of the theory is simple: Running backs are the scarcest position, so therefore it makes sense to spend several high picks making sure you have two solid options at the position. There are several variations to the theory, but all involve taking two running backs in the first three rounds. However a recent trend in the NFL has been an increase in the dreaded Running Back by Committee (RBBC). There are now a great abundance of backs who figure to get a good share of carries in their respective backfield. How does this evolution of NFL football affect fantasy football and the long-standing theory? Read on.

For the following situations, we will use the example of a 10 team, standard scoring system league as an example. Player choice will be approximated by Average Draft Position Values*. Team X has the 7th overall pick in this draft, and will be the basis of the argument.

Let’s assume in condition A, that Team X is a firm believer in the Running Back Theory. He drafts Willie Parker, and pats himself on the back for doing so. The snake draft comes back around to him, and he selects Ronnie Brown with his second round pick. Scrambling to grab the best WR, Team X selects Javon Walker the third round, twenty-sixth overall. Let’s say he takes a mid round QB and winds up with Matt Hasselbeck. His team now stands at Parker, Brown, Walker and Hasselbeck.

Now in condition B, Team X is still feeling conservative, so he still drafts Willie Parker at 7th overall. However, he is unsettled by the running back options at his 2nd pick and selects Steve Smith. When the twenty-sixth overall pick arrives he snatches up Willis McGahee (ADP 27). Assume he later drafts Hasselbeck like the condition A. His team now stands at Parker, Smith, McGahee and Hasselbeck. Notice he once again followed the running back theory.

Now consider condition C, where Team X has thrown caution to the wind and grabbed Peyton Manning with the 7th overall selection. On the wraparound Team X grabs Clinton Portis in round two. Further thumbing his nose at fantasy pundits, Team X grabs Javon Walker, further ignoring the running back position. Assuming he takes a back in the 4th or 5th round, he is likely looking at Thomas Jones. So his team now stands at Peyton Manning, Portis, Walker and Jones.

How does each of these teams perform by the numbers? If each player’s 3 year average** is used, the results are surprising:

Condition A: 529 points
Condition B: 550 points
Condition C: 641 points

Clearly the Peyton Manning-led team has a sizeable advantage in points scored. Now obviously this one example is not enough to disprove that drafting two running backs early is the best approach to the game. It does however present interesting statistics to back up the notion that one does not HAVE to take a running back early to be competitive.

The fact of the matter is that with so many running backs in timeshares this season, there is an abundance of value in the 4th and 5th rounds at the position. Such backs as Edgerrin James, Thomas Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Deuce McAllister, Cadillac Williams, and Ahman Green all have Average Draft Positions well into the 5th and 6th rounds in a standard 10 team league. Now depending on how savvy your league is, all of these backs will not be there in the middle rounds, but one or two will surely fall. Why constrain yourself to reach for Edgerrin James in the third round when you can take a great wide receiver at that position and still get a comparable back a round or maybe even two rounds later?

The bottom line is this: The Running Back Theory is not entirely correct and locking yourself into it is foolish. But ignoring the importance of the running back position is likewise foolish. It is best to approach your draft without a set positional rubric in mind, and just draft the best player available. If in your eyes Peyton Manning looks good to you at the end of the first round, just bite the bullet and make the pick. The snickers of your league might very well turn into begs for mercy come Week 16.

*ADPs are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports Draft Central
**3 year averages are done where applicable. Players with fewer than 3 years service time were evaluated with career averages. Seasons lost entirely due to injury were not considered.

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