Start & SitOctober 29, 2008


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Week 9

By Nick Hopkins

Last week the Dolphins surprised the Bills, the Giants outlasted the Steelers, the Titans stayed perfect against the Colts, and the Chargers and Saints put on an offensive show on the other side of the Atlantic. This week has its own share of good matchups, featuring divisional matchups such as Cowboys-Giants and Bills-Jets. We will also get to see a New England-Indianapolis Sunday Night game that may have lost some of the luster it had in recent years, and a matchup between current AFC and NFC heavyweights when Pittsburgh visits Washington on Monday Night. What players will lead their teams with big games in Week 9? Our Cafe rankers have their opinions… see for yourself!

Our rating system is based on two sets of rankings. The first set is a value between 1-20, given based on a player’s Fantasy Value If Playing (FVIP). The second set is that player’s Playing Probability (PP). These two sets are thrown into a giant machine, twisted around a little, mixed up, sorted, resorted, then eventually darts are thrown at the results. If you require any further help, our start/sit forum is top notch. You will find quick replies to your questions there and many eager helpers!

QuarterbacksTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Kurt WarnerARIat STL20.00100%20.00
Jay CutlerDENMIA18.00100%18.00
Kyle OrtonCHIDET17.67100%17.67
Matt SchaubHOUat MIN17.33100%17.33
Donovan McNabbPHIat SEA17.00100%17.00
Peyton ManningINDNE16.67100%16.67
Eli ManningNYGDAL16.33100%16.33
Jeff GarciaTBat KC16.00100%16.00
Chad PenningtonMIAat DEN16.00100%16.00
David GarrardJAXat CIN15.67100%15.67
Brett FavreNYJat BUF15.33100%15.33
Marc BulgerSTLARI15.00100%15.00
Trent EdwardsBUFNYJ14.33100%14.33
Aaron RodgersGBat TEN14.00100%14.00
Ben RoethlisbergerPITat WAS14.00100%14.00
Matt RyanATLat OAK14.00100%14.00
Gus FrerotteMINHOU13.67100%13.67
Matt CasselNEat IND13.33100%13.33
Jason CampbellWASPIT12.33100%12.33
Joe FlaccoBALat CLE11.33100%11.33
JaMarcus RussellOAKATL11.33100%11.33
Dan OrlovskyDETat CHI10.67100%10.67
Seneca WallaceSEAPHI10.67100%10.67
Derek AndersonCLEBAL10.00100%10.00
Ryan FitzpatrickCINJAX10.00100%10.00
Brad JohnsonDALat NYG9.33100%9.33
Matt HasselbeckSEAPHI14.00
Alert! 13%
1.87
Carson PalmerCINJAX15.67
Alert! 0%
0.00

Start: Kyle Orton (Rank: 17.67) – Kyle Orton has had a very good year statistically with 10 TDs to only 4 interceptions. He has a great matchup this week against the Lions’ 31st ranked passing defense. Detroit has surrendered 10 passing touchdowns this year and only come up with one interception. Orton also had his best game of the season last time he faced the Lions (334 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs).

Sit: Jason Campbell (Rank: 12.33) – Campbell has a had a better year than anyone expected. He has tossed eight touchdown passes and has yet to throw a single interception. He does not have a great matchup this week against the Steelers, however. The Steelers have the top passing defense in the NFL. This will likely be a defensive, low-scoring affair. Campbell’s job will be to stay mistake free and effective, but he will not necessarily be putting up big numbers.
 

Running BacksTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Brian WestbrookPHIat SEA19.33100%19.33
Adrian PetersonMINHOU19.00100%19.00
Matt ForteCHIDET18.67100%18.67
Ronnie BrownMIAat DEN18.00100%18.00
Brandon JacobsNYGDAL16.33100%16.33
Maurice Jones-DrewJAXat CIN16.00100%16.00
Earnest GrahamTBat KC16.00100%16.00
Chris JohnsonTENGB16.00100%16.00
Michael TurnerATLat OAK16.00100%16.00
Marion BarberDALat NYG15.67100%15.67
Marshawn LynchBUFNYJ15.67100%15.67
Willis McGaheeBALat CLE15.33100%15.33
Steven JacksonSTLARI17.33
Alert! 83%
14.44
LenDale WhiteTENGB14.33100%14.33
Thomas JonesNYJat BUF14.33100%14.33
Clinton PortisWASPIT14.3397%13.86
Mewelde MoorePITat WAS13.67100%13.67
Tim HightowerARIat STL13.67100%13.67
Dominic RhodesINDNE13.00100%13.00
Edgerrin JamesARIat STL13.00100%13.00
Kevin FaulkNEat IND13.00100%13.00
Steve SlatonHOUat MIN12.67100%12.67
Ryan GrantGBat TEN12.33100%12.33
Justin FargasOAKATL12.33100%12.33
Michael PittmanDENMIA12.00100%12.00
Benjarvis Green-EllisNEat IND12.00100%12.00
Warrick DunnTBat KC12.0093%11.20
Jamal LewisCLEBAL11.00100%11.00
Ricky WilliamsMIAat DEN10.67100%10.67
Julius JonesSEAPHI10.33100%10.33
Leon WashingtonNYJat BUF10.33100%10.33
Fred TaylorJAXat CIN10.33100%10.33
Chester TaylorMINHOU10.00100%10.00
Ahman GreenHOUat MIN9.67100%9.67
Joseph AddaiINDNE15.00
Alert! 63%
9.50
LeRon McClainBALat CLE9.33100%9.33
Derrick WardNYGDAL9.00100%9.00
Cedric BensonCINJAX9.00100%9.00
Ryan TorrainDENMIA9.00100%9.00
Rudi JohnsonDETat CHI9.00100%9.00
Jerious NorwoodATLat OAK8.33100%8.33
Antonio PittmanSTLARI8.6793%8.09
Kevin SmithDETat CHI8.00100%8.00
Darren McFaddenOAKATL10.00
Alert! 80%
8.00
Michael BushOAKATL7.33100%7.33
Correll BuckhalterPHIat SEA7.00100%7.00
Ray RiceBALat CLE7.00100%7.00
Willie ParkerPITat WAS14.00
Alert! 50%
7.00
Brandon JacksonGBat TEN6.67100%6.67
Felix JonesDALat NYG11.33
Alert! 10%
1.13
Sammy MorrisNEat IND15.00
Alert! 7%
1.00
Larry JohnsonKCTB13.67
Alert! 0%
0.00
Laurence MaroneyNEat IND13.00
Alert! 0%
0.00

Start: Earnest Graham (Rank: 16.00) – Graham has lost carries to Warrick Dunn this season, but has still managed to put up decent numbers to this point. He should have the opportunity to make a big fantasy impact this week against the Chiefs, owners of the worst run defense in the league. Kansas City has given up almost 200 rushing yards a game and allowed 14 rushing touchdowns to their opponents in 7 games. Ouch.

Sit: Steve Slaton (Rank: 12.67) – Slaton has been surprisingly (at least to me) effective in his rookie season, but I would not expect much from him this week. The Minnesota Vikings have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Vikes allow just over 70 rushing yards per game.

 

Wide ReceiversTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Anquan BoldinARIat STL20.00100%20.00
Larry FitzgeraldARIat STL19.67100%19.67
Andre JohnsonHOUat MIN19.00100%19.00
Brandon MarshallDENMIA18.33100%18.33
Reggie WayneINDNE18.00100%18.00
Plaxico BurressNYGDAL17.33100%17.33
Calvin JohnsonDETat CHI17.33100%17.33
Bernard BerrianMINHOU17.00100%17.00
Lee EvansBUFNYJ17.00100%17.00
DeSean JacksonPHIat SEA17.00100%17.00
Roddy WhiteATLat OAK16.67100%16.67
Randy MossNEat IND16.33100%16.33
Donnie AverySTLARI16.33100%16.33
Greg JenningsGBat TEN16.00100%16.00
Antonio BryantTBat KC15.00100%15.00
Laveranues ColesNYJat BUF15.00100%15.00
Ted Ginn Jr.MIAat DEN15.00100%15.00
T.J. HoushmandzadehCINJAX15.00100%15.00
Jerricho CotcheryNYJat BUF14.67100%14.67
Kevin WalterHOUat MIN14.67100%14.67
Eddie RoyalDENMIA14.33100%14.33
Dwayne BoweKCTB14.33100%14.33
Hines WardPITat WAS14.33100%14.33
Wes WelkerNEat IND14.00100%14.00
Santana MossWASPIT14.6793%13.69
Greg CamarilloMIAat DEN13.67100%13.67
Braylon EdwardsCLEBAL13.67100%13.67
Steve BreastonARIat STL13.67100%13.67
Terrell OwensDALat NYG13.67100%13.67
Reggie WilliamsJAXat CIN13.33100%13.33
Derrick MasonBALat CLE12.33100%12.33
Bobby WadeMINHOU12.00100%12.00
Nate WashingtonPITat WAS12.00100%12.00
Joey GallowayTBat KC12.00100%12.00
Devin HesterCHIDET14.00
Alert! 83%
11.67
Brandon StokleyDENMIA11.33100%11.33
Rashied DavisCHIDET11.33100%11.33
Donald DriverGBat TEN11.33100%11.33
Antwaan Randle ElWASPIT11.33100%11.33
Marty BookerCHIDET11.00100%11.00
Bobby EngramSEAPHI11.00100%11.00
Marvin HarrisonINDNE11.00100%11.00
Javon WalkerOAKATL11.00100%11.00
Chansi StuckeyNYJat BUF10.67100%10.67
Chad Ocho CincoCINJAX10.67100%10.67
Roy WilliamsDALat NYG10.33100%10.33
Steve SmithNYGDAL10.00100%10.00
Torry HoltSTLARI10.00100%10.00
Reggie BrownPHIat SEA10.00100%10.00
Kevin CurtisPHIat SEA14.00
Alert! 70%
9.80
Michael JenkinsATLat OAK9.67100%9.67
Matt JonesJAXat CIN15.33
Alert! 60%
9.20
Santonio HolmesPITat WAS13.67
Alert! 67%
9.11
Anthony GonzalezINDNE8.67100%8.67
Justin GageTENGB8.67100%8.67
Amani ToomerNYGDAL8.33100%8.33
Brandon JonesTENGB8.00100%8.00
Hank BaskettPHIat SEA7.67100%7.67
Patrick CraytonDALat NYG7.67100%7.67
Sidney RiceMINHOU7.33100%7.33
Chris HenryCINJAX7.00100%7.00
Jabar GaffneyNEat IND5.33100%5.33

Start: Desean Jackson (Rank: 17.00) – Although just a rookie, Jackson has proven to be an explosive, and even somewhat consistent, fantasy threat. He’s only had two games under 70 yards and those were both against defenses much better than the Seattle defense he will face this week (Pittsburgh and Washington). The Seahawks have the 30th ranked passing defense and have allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season. This may be the week that Jackson catches his second career touchdown pass.

Sit: Roy Williams (Rank: 10.33) – The newest Cowboy wide receiver caught his first touchdown pass with his new team last week, but I would not expect to see him putting up big numbers all of a sudden. The Cowboys still have noodle-armed Brad Johnson at quarterback, and this week they face one of the NFL’s best defenses in the New York Giants. Brad Johnson will have enough to worry about just trying to stay upright. I don’t expect to see him take many shots downfield. Even when he does, I suspect TO will be the recipient of the majority of these passes.

 

Tight EndsTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Greg OlsenCHIDET16.33100%16.33
Dallas ClarkINDNE16.00100%16.00
Owen DanielsHOUat MIN15.67100%15.67
Tony GonzalezKCTB15.67100%15.67
Chris CooleyWASPIT14.67100%14.67
Anthony FasanoMIAat DEN14.33100%14.33
John CarlsonSEAPHI13.67100%13.67
Kellen WinslowCLEBAL13.33100%13.33
Zach MillerOAKATL12.67100%12.67
Alex SmithTBat KC12.33100%12.33
Bo ScaifeTENGB12.33100%12.33
Visanthe ShiancoeMINHOU12.00100%12.00
Desmond ClarkCHIDET12.00100%12.00
Robert RoyalBUFNYJ11.67100%11.67
Donald LeeGBat TEN11.67100%11.67
Kevin BossNYGDAL10.67100%10.67
Heath MillerPITat WAS10.67100%10.67
Tony SchefflerDENMIA15.00
Alert! 70%
10.50
Dustin KellerNYJat BUF10.33100%10.33
Marcedes LewisJAXat CIN10.33100%10.33
L.J. SmithPHIat SEA14.33
Alert! 70%
10.03
Jason WittenDALat NYG16.00
Alert! 60%
9.60
Alge CrumplerTENGB8.67100%8.67
Ben WatsonNEat IND8.33100%8.33
Todd HeapBALat CLE7.33100%7.33
Chris BakerNYJat BUF7.33
Alert! 83%
6.11

Start: Dallas Clark (Rank: 16.00) – Clark had his breakout game last week, scoring his first two touchdowns of the season against the Tennessee Titans. Peyton Manning still looked off connecting with his other receivers, but it seems his timing with Clark is back. Clark tends to string big games together, so I look for good production from him this week.

Sit: Jason Witten (Rank: 9.60) – The Cowboys’ star tight end fractured a rib last week against Tampa Bay and his status is questionable this week. Start looking for a temporary replacement for Witten in your starting lineup. Even if Witten does manage to gut it out and play this week, a tough matchup against the Giants with a broken rib is not a very favorable one.

 

KickersTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Matt BryantTBat KC18.00100%18.00
Stephen GostkowskiNEat IND18.00100%18.00
Matt PraterDENMIA17.67100%17.67
Robbie GouldCHIDET17.67100%17.67
Rob BironasTENGB17.67100%17.67
Ryan LongwellMINHOU17.00100%17.00
Neil RackersARIat STL17.00100%17.00
Josh ScobeeJAXat CIN15.67100%15.67
Jason ElamATLat OAK15.67100%15.67
David AkersPHIat SEA15.67100%15.67
Nick FolkDALat NYG15.00100%15.00
Mason CrosbyGBat TEN14.67100%14.67
John CarneyNYGDAL14.67100%14.67
Rian LindellBUFNYJ14.33100%14.33
Kris BrownHOUat MIN14.00100%14.00
Jeff ReedPITat WAS14.00100%14.00
Dan CarpenterMIAat DEN14.00100%14.00
Olindo MareSEAPHI13.67100%13.67
Shaun SuishamWASPIT13.33100%13.33
Josh BrownSTLARI13.00100%13.00
Shayne GrahamCINJAX13.00100%13.00
Sebastian JanikowskiOAKATL13.00100%13.00
Adam VinatieriINDNE12.00100%12.00
Matt StoverBALat CLE11.67100%11.67
Phil DawsonCLEBAL11.33100%11.33
Jason HansonDETat CHI10.67100%10.67
Nick NovakKCTB8.33100%8.33

Start: Stephen Gostkowski (Rank: 18.00) – Gostkowski has made 16 of his 17 field goal attempts this year, and has scored double digit points in 3 of his last 4 games. The Colts have given up the 4th most field goals in the NFL this season. Looks like a good matchup for the Pats’ kicker.

Sit: Matt Stover (Rank: 11.66) – It has been a tough year for the usually reliable Stover. He has made only 9 of his 12 attempts, including a worrisome 1/4 from 40+ yards. The Ravens do not usually give Stover a lot of chances, and they play on the road this week against a Cleveland defense that has somehow allowed only four field goals all year.

 

DefenseTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Tampa Bay BuccaneersTBat KC19.33100%19.33
Chicago BearsCHIDET18.67100%18.67
Baltimore RavensBALat CLE18.00100%18.00
Philadelphia EaglesPHIat SEA18.00100%18.00
Jacksonville JaguarsJAXat CIN15.67100%15.67
Tennessee TitansTENGB14.67100%14.67
New York GiantsNYGDAL14.67100%14.67
Washington RedskinsWASPIT13.67100%13.67
Pittsburgh SteelersPITat WAS13.67100%13.67
Houston TexansHOUat MIN13.67100%13.67
Buffalo BillsBUFNYJ13.67100%13.67
Green Bay PackersGBat TEN13.00100%13.00
New York JetsNYJat BUF13.00100%13.00
Arizona CardinalsARIat STL12.67100%12.67
Minnesota VikingsMINHOU12.33100%12.33
New England PatriotsNEat IND11.67100%11.67
Indianapolis ColtsINDNE11.33100%11.33
Dallas CowboysDALat NYG11.33100%11.33
Atlanta FalconsATLat OAK11.33100%11.33
Denver BroncosDENMIA10.00100%10.00
Seattle SeahawksSEAPHI9.67100%9.67
Oakland RaidersOAKATL9.67100%9.67
Miami DolphinsMIAat DEN9.67100%9.67
Cleveland BrownsCLEBAL9.33100%9.33
Cincinnati BengalsCINJAX5.67100%5.67
Kansas City ChiefsKCTB5.67100%5.67
St. Louis RamsSTLARI5.67100%5.67
Detroit LionsDETat CHI4.67100%4.67

Start: Jacksonville Jaguars (Rank: 15.67) – The Jags’ defense has not played at quite the level they have in recent years, but they draw one of the worst offenses in the league this week in the Bengals. Cincinnati’s quarterback and running back situations are both still a mess. The Bengals are scoring a league-low 13 points a game. Get Jacksonville in your starting lineup.

Sit: Arizona Cardinals (Rank: 12.67) – Four weeks ago the Cardinals’ defense would have looked like a good start against the winless St. Louis Rams. But since then the Rams have made an impressive turn-around, winning 2 of their next 3 games. The offense has woken up, and Marc Bulger is now finding Torry Holt and rookie wideout Donnie Avery for big gains. Standout runningback Steven Jackson should be back on the field this week as well after sitting out last week’s game against the Patriots. The Rams are no longer a team to be taken lightly, and as such, you should find a different matchup to exploit this week.
 

 
Many thanks to the people who helped put this together: treat24, utility-hook, Amuk, WaCougMBS, and Dan Lambskin who helped with the rankings! If you would like to help with the rankings you can do so here each week.


 
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