Week 11

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There were some squeakers in Week 10, with three games decided by only two points or less. Adrian Peterson saved the Vikings with a big run to win the game, and in the process took over the league rushing lead. Kurt Warner continued his MVP caliber season with over 300 yards and three more touchdowns. There were blow outs as well, as the Ravens pounded the Texans, Jacksonville routed the still-winless Lions, and the Jets handed the Rams a beatdown for the history books. This week we will be treated to another slate of great games, starting on Thursday Night when two teams hitting their stride, the Jets and Patriots, clash in Foxboro. So remember to get players from either of those teams in your lineup before kickoff! For lineup questions involving this game or any others, I give you the Cafe’s Week 11 Start & Sit.

Our rating system is based on two sets of rankings. The first set is a value between 1-20, given based on a player’s Fantasy Value If Playing (FVIP). The second set is that player’s Playing Probability (PP). These two sets are thrown into a giant machine, twisted around a little, mixed up, sorted, resorted, then eventually darts are thrown at the results. If you require any further help, our start/sit forum is top notch. You will find quick replies to your questions there and many eager helpers!

Quarterbacks	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Kurt Warner	ARI	at SEA	20.00	100%	20.00
Drew Brees	NO	at KC	20.00	100%	20.00
Jay Cutler	DEN	at ATL	19.50	100%	19.50
Peyton Manning	IND	HOU	19.50	100%	19.50
Donovan McNabb	PHI	at CIN	18.50	100%	18.50
Matt Ryan	ATL	DEN	17.50	100%	17.50
Jake Delhomme	CAR	DET	17.00	100%	17.00
Jason Campbell	WAS	DAL	16.50	100%	16.50
Chad Pennington	MIA	OAK	15.50	100%	15.50
Brady Quinn	CLE	at BUF	15.50	100%	15.50
Tyler Thigpen	KC	NO	15.50	100%	15.50
Aaron Rodgers	GB	CHI	15.50	100%	15.50
Jeff Garcia	TB	MIN	15.00	100%	15.00
Marc Bulger	STL	at SF	14.50	100%	14.50
Trent Edwards	BUF	CLE	14.50	100%	14.50
Matt Cassel	NE	NYJ	14.50	100%	14.50
Brett Favre	NYJ	at NE	14.50	100%	14.50
Sage Rosenfels	HOU	at IND	14.00	100%	14.00
Shaun Hill	SF	STL	13.50	100%	13.50
Philip Rivers	SD	at PIT	13.50	100%	13.50
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	SD	13.00	100%	13.00
Kerry Collins	TEN	JAX	13	100%	13.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick	CIN	PHI	12.50	100%	12.50
Gus Frerotte	MIN	at TB	12.50	100%	12.50
Joe Flacco	BAL	at NYG	12.00	100%	12.00
Eli Manning	NYG	BAL	11.50	100%	11.50
David Garrard	JAX	TEN	11.00	100%	11.00
Tony Romo	DAL	at WAS	15.50	70%	10.85
Daunte Culpepper	DET	at CAR	10.00	100%	10.00
Seneca Wallace	SEA	ARI	10.00	85%	8.50
Kyle Orton	CHI	at GB	11.00	70%	7.70
Rex Grossman	CHI	at GB	9.50	78%	7.36
Andrew Walter	OAK	at MIA	7.00	75%	5.25
JaMarcus Russell	OAK	at MIA	7.50	63%	4.69
Carson Palmer	CIN	PHI	11.50	30%	3.45
Drew Stanton	DET	at CAR	6.00	55%	3.30
Brad Johnson	DAL	at WAS	7.50	20%	1.50
Matt Schaub	HOU	at IND	4.00	5%	0.20
Dan Orlovsky	DET	at CAR	2.50	5%	0.13

Start: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles (Rank: 18.50) – McNabb has scored 18 or more fantasy points in four straight contests. As has been in recent years, the guy is a decent start when healthy. Well, he is healthy right now and playing well. This week he faces a middle of the road Bengals pass defense. They rank 10th against the pass, however, they have allowed 14 total touchdowns to quarterbacks.

Sit: Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (Rank: 13.50) – Although Rivers has been a solid performer this season and near the top of fantasy rankings, this is the one week you should turn to your backup if he’s a solid option. Last week Peyton Manning turned in the best performance of the year against Rivers’ opponent this week, the Steelers. The Steelers have only allowed 9 passing touchdowns, and 3 were from Manning last week. They allow 15 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks which ranks as the 3rd toughest.

Running Backs	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Brian Westbrook	PHI	at CIN	20.00	100%	20.00
Frank Gore	SF	STL	20.00	100%	20.00
Michael Turner	ATL	DEN	19.50	100%	19.50
Ronnie Brown	MIA	OAK	18.00	100%	18.00
Matt Forte	CHI	at GB	18.00	100%	18.00
Adrian Peterson	MIN	at TB	17.50	100%	17.50
DeAngelo Williams	CAR	DET	17.50	100%	17.50
Steve Slaton	HOU	at IND	17.50	100%	17.50
Joseph Addai	IND	HOU	17.00	100%	17.00
Deuce McAllister	NO	at KC	16.50	100%	16.50
Chris Johnson	TEN	at JAX	16.50	100%	16.50
Marion Barber	DAL	at WAS	16.50	100%	16.50
LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	at PIT	16.00	100%	16.00
Marshawn Lynch	BUF	CLE	16.00	100%	16.00
Brandon Jacobs	NYG	BAL	16.00	100%	16.00
Peyton Hillis	DEN	at ATL	16.00	100%	16.00
Larry Johnson	KC	NO	16.00	100%	16.00
Thomas Jones	NYJ	at NE	15.00	100%	15.00
Benjarvis Green-Ellis	NE	NYJ	15.00	100%	15.00
Mewelde Moore	PIT	SD	15.00	100%	15.00
LenDale White	TEN	at JAX	14.50	100%	14.50
Willis McGahee	BAL	at NYG	14.50	100%	14.50
Cedric Benson	CIN	PHI	14.50	100%	14.50
Kevin Smith	DET	at CAR	14.00	100%	14.00
Jamal Lewis	CLE	at BUF	14.00	100%	14.00
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	TEN	14.00	100%	14.00
Ryan Grant	GB	CHI	14.00	100%	14.00
Ladell Betts	WAS	DAL	14	100%	14.00
Tim Hightower	ARI	at SEA	13.50	100%	13.50
Jonathan Stewart	CAR	DET	13.00	100%	13.00
Kevin Faulk	NE	NYJ	13.00	100%	13.00
Justin Fargas	OAK	at MIA	12.50	100%	12.50
Julius Jones	SEA	ARI	11.50	100%	11.50
Earnest Graham	TB	MIN	11.50	100%	11.50
Jerious Norwood	ATL	DEN	11.50	100%	11.50
Ricky Williams	MIA	OAK	11.50	100%	11.50
Willie Parker	PIT	SD	15.50	70%	10.85
Ray Rice	BAL	at NYG	10.50	100%	10.50
Steven Jackson	STL	at SF	17.50	60%	10.50
Antonio Pittman	STL	at SF	13.00	80%	10.40
Fred Taylor	JAX	TEN	9.50	100%	9.50
Dominic Rhodes	IND	HOU	9.50	100%	9.50
Warrick Dunn	TB	MIN	9.50	100%	9.50
Jamaal Charles	KC	NO	9.00	100%	9.00
Dantrell Savage	KC	NO	9.00	100%	9.00
Leon Washington	NYJ	at NE	8.00	100%	8.00
LeRon McClain	BAL	at NYG	8.00	100%	8.00
Sammy Morris	NE	NYJ	12.50	60%	7.50
Correll Buckhalter	PHI	at CIN	7.00	100%	7.00
Clinton Portis	WAS	DAL	17.50	40%	7.00
Fred Jackson	BUF	CLE	6.50	100%	6.50
JJ Arrington	ARI	at SEA	6.50	100%	6.50
Ahman Green	HOU	at IND	6.50	100%	6.50
Selvin Young	DEN	at ATL	10.00	65%	6.50
Derrick Ward	NYG	BAL	6.00	100%	6.00
Rudi Johnson	DET	at CAR	6.00	100%	6.00
Ken Darby	STL	at SF	6.00	100%	6.00
Darren McFadden	OAK	at MIA	8.50	60%	5.10
Brandon Jackson	GB	CHI	5.00	100%	5.00
Chester Taylor	MIN	at TB	5.00	100%	5.00
Darren Sproles	SD	at PIT	5.00	100%	5.00
Michael Bush	OAK	at MIA	5.00	100%	5.00
Edgerrin James	ARI	at SEA	4.50	100%	4.50
Felix Jones	DAL	at WAS	3.00	100%	3.00

Start: Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills (Rank: 16.00) – In recent weeks he’s been moving from RB1 to RB2, and in some cases, a flex play. People have started to lose faith with the Bills floundering and Jackson stealing touches. Get him back into that starting lineup with confidence this week. He hasn’t topped 100 yards yet, but this week should be the week. Cleveland has the 26th ranked run defense and gives up yards and touchdowns in bunches to running backs.

Sit: Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens (Rank: 14.50) – I know, I know, he had a huge week last week. Many say if he’s healthy he is the guy and he performs. Well that may be true, but there is no guarantee he dominates the carries this week. Not to mention his opponent is the New York Giants. The Giants have only given up 3 rushing touchdowns in nine weeks. They are only giving 87 rushing yards a game and haven’t allowed any running backs to top 90 yards. Sit Willis.

Start: Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (Rank: 20.00) – Thanks to quarterback Matt Ryan’s instant impact, Roddy White has maintained a torrid pace through the first half of the season. White has seven touchdowns in his last eight games, and has yet to be held under 50 yards receiving this year. He is primed for a big game this week against the Broncos 28th ranked passing defense. The Broncos are still missing their top cornerback, Champ Bailey, and thus should have major problems trying to stop a receiver as explosive as White.

Sit: Tory Holt, St. Louis Rams (Rank: 14.00) – This once elite WR has had trouble getting anything going this year, even when the Rams’ offense was moving the ball. That offense seems to have hit a slump again however, due in part to missing runningback Steven Jackson. Holt can’t do anything if his offense is not clicking, and the possibility of drawing Niners’ cornerback Nate Clements would not help matters. Until St. Louis wakes up again on offense, Holt should be left on your bench.

Tight Ends	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Tony Gonzalez	KC	NO	18.50	100%	18.50
Kellen Winslow	CLE	at BUF	18.00	100%	18.00
Owen Daniels	HOU	at IND	18.00	100%	18.00
Dallas Clark	IND	HOU	17.50	100%	17.50
Antonio Gates	SD	at PIT	17.50	100%	17.50
Chris Cooley	WAS	DAL	16.50	100%	16.50
Tony Scheffler	DEN	at ATL	17.00	95%	16.15
L.J. Smith	PHI	at CIN	16.00	100%	16.00
Anthony Fasano	MIA	OAK	15.50	100%	15.50
Heath Miller	PIT	SD	15.00	100%	15.00
Donald Lee	GB	CHI	15.00	100%	15.00
Kevin Boss	NYG	BAL	14.50	100%	14.50
Greg Olsen	CHI	at GB	14.50	100%	14.50
Bo Scaife	TEN	at JAX	14.50	100%	14.50
John Carlson	SEA	ARI	14.50	100%	14.50
Vernon Davis	SF	STL	14.50	100%	14.50
Billy Miller	NO	at KC	14.50	100%	14.50
Jason Witten	DAL	at WAS	16.00	90%	14.40
Dustin Keller	NYJ	at NE	14.00	100%	14.00
Visanthe Shiancoe	MIN	at TB	13.50	100%	13.50
Robert Royal	BUF	CLE	13.00	100%	13.00
Desmond Clark	CHI	at GB	11.50	100%	11.50
Marcedes Lewis	JAX	TEN	10.50	100%	10.50
Zach Miller	OAK	at MIA	10.50	100%	10.50
Alex Smith	TB	MIN	10.00	100%	10.00
Ben Watson	NE	NYJ	9.50	100%	9.50
Todd Heap	BAL	at NYG	9.00	100%	9.00
Alge Crumpler	TEN	at JAX	9.00	100%	9.00
Brent Celek	PHI	at CIN	9.00	100%	9.00
Jeremy Shockey	NO	at KC	11.00	80%	8.80
Chris Baker	NYJ	at NE	8.00	100%	8.00
Dante Rosario	CAR	DET	8.00	100%	8.00
Matt Spaeth	PIT	SD	8.00	100%	8.00

Start: Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos (Rank: 16.15) – Scheffler’s injury has caused him to drop off many fantasy players’ radars, but the Denver tight end was back in action last week, and caught four passes for 92 yards. As long as he plays he is a solid start, as he is one of the league’s more talented tight ends playing in a very pass happy offense. Make sure his injury allows him to go again this week. As long as he’s relatively healthy, he should be a good start against the Falcons.

Sit: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens (Rank: 9.00) – Heap scored his first two touchdowns of the season last week against the Texans, but I won’t say yet that he’s turned the corner. The Ravens have a much tougher matchup this week against the New York Giants, so I would not expect much from Heap. Still, it is worth keeping an eye on his performance against New York. If he does get involved in the offense, he could be a worthy start down the line. We now know that the Ravens have a quarterback capable of getting him the ball.

Start: Jason Elam, Atlanta Falcons (Rank: 18.00) – The Broncos have allowed the 5th most points in the NFL (27.9) and have also given up the 5th most field goals (20). That makes the dependable Jason Elam a great start. The Falcons’ offense is rolling and should have no problem getting into field goal range against Denver.

Sit: Shayne Graham, Cincinnati Bengals (Rank: 14.50) – There is good news and bad news regarding Shayne Graham. The good news is that he has only missed one field goal all season, and has not missed at all since Week 2. The bad news: He’s only attempted twelve field goals and eight extra points this season. Graham is a good kicker, but with the Bengals struggling like they are, you don’t want him starting, especially against a strong defense like the Eagles have.

Start: Miami Dolphins (Rank: 18.00) – The Oakland Raiders have only scored 16 points in their last three games. That would make any defense playing against them a pretty good start. The Dolphins have a solid defense and players like Joey Porter who can get after the quarterback and cause turnovers. This is a good matchup to take advantage of.

Sit: Buffalo Bills (Rank: 14.00) – A lot of the luster has worn off of the Bills during their three game losing streak. The defense has played decently, but it certainly has not looked like the unit that helped the Bills jump out to a 5-1 record through their first six games. The Cleveland Browns’ offense comes into Buffalo with some momentum after putting up 30 points last week in Brady Quinn’s debut. The Browns have weapons like Kellen Winslow, Braylon Edwards, and Jamal Lewis that can hurt any defense if Quinn can put together another good game.

 
Many thanks to the people who helped put this together: treat24, dweenmachine, Amuk, and WaCougMBS who helped with the rankings! If you would like to help with the rankings you can do so here each week.