Start & SitNovember 12, 2008


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Week 11

By Nick Hopkins

There were some squeakers in Week 10, with three games decided by only two points or less. Adrian Peterson saved the Vikings with a big run to win the game, and in the process took over the league rushing lead. Kurt Warner continued his MVP caliber season with over 300 yards and three more touchdowns. There were blow outs as well, as the Ravens pounded the Texans, Jacksonville routed the still-winless Lions, and the Jets handed the Rams a beatdown for the history books. This week we will be treated to another slate of great games, starting on Thursday Night when two teams hitting their stride, the Jets and Patriots, clash in Foxboro. So remember to get players from either of those teams in your lineup before kickoff! For lineup questions involving this game or any others, I give you the Cafe’s Week 11 Start & Sit.

Our rating system is based on two sets of rankings. The first set is a value between 1-20, given based on a player’s Fantasy Value If Playing (FVIP). The second set is that player’s Playing Probability (PP). These two sets are thrown into a giant machine, twisted around a little, mixed up, sorted, resorted, then eventually darts are thrown at the results. If you require any further help, our start/sit forum is top notch. You will find quick replies to your questions there and many eager helpers!

QuarterbacksTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Kurt WarnerARIat SEA20.00100%20.00
Drew BreesNOat KC20.00100%20.00
Jay CutlerDENat ATL19.50100%19.50
Peyton ManningINDHOU19.50100%19.50
Donovan McNabbPHIat CIN18.50100%18.50
Matt RyanATLDEN17.50100%17.50
Jake DelhommeCARDET17.00100%17.00
Jason CampbellWASDAL16.50100%16.50
Chad PenningtonMIAOAK15.50100%15.50
Brady QuinnCLEat BUF15.50100%15.50
Tyler ThigpenKCNO15.50100%15.50
Aaron RodgersGBCHI15.50100%15.50
Jeff GarciaTBMIN15.00100%15.00
Marc BulgerSTLat SF14.50100%14.50
Trent EdwardsBUFCLE14.50100%14.50
Matt CasselNENYJ14.50100%14.50
Brett FavreNYJat NE14.50100%14.50
Sage RosenfelsHOUat IND14.00100%14.00
Shaun HillSFSTL13.50100%13.50
Philip RiversSDat PIT13.50100%13.50
Ben RoethlisbergerPITSD13.00100%13.00
Kerry CollinsTENJAX13100%13.00
Ryan FitzpatrickCINPHI12.50100%12.50
Gus FrerotteMINat TB12.50100%12.50
Joe FlaccoBALat NYG12.00100%12.00
Eli ManningNYGBAL11.50100%11.50
David GarrardJAXTEN11.00100%11.00
Tony RomoDALat WAS15.50
Alert! 70%
10.85
Daunte CulpepperDETat CAR10.00100%10.00
Seneca WallaceSEAARI10.00
Alert! 85%
8.50
Kyle OrtonCHIat GB11.00
Alert! 70%
7.70
Rex GrossmanCHIat GB9.50
Alert! 78%
7.36
Andrew WalterOAKat MIA7.00
Alert! 75%
5.25
JaMarcus RussellOAKat MIA7.50
Alert! 63%
4.69
Carson PalmerCINPHI11.50
Alert! 30%
3.45
Drew StantonDETat CAR6.00
Alert! 55%
3.30
Brad JohnsonDALat WAS7.50
Alert! 20%
1.50
Matt SchaubHOUat IND4.00
Alert! 5%
0.20
Dan OrlovskyDETat CAR2.50
Alert! 5%
0.13

Start: Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles (Rank: 18.50) – McNabb has scored 18 or more fantasy points in four straight contests. As has been in recent years, the guy is a decent start when healthy. Well, he is healthy right now and playing well. This week he faces a middle of the road Bengals pass defense. They rank 10th against the pass, however, they have allowed 14 total touchdowns to quarterbacks.

Sit: Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (Rank: 13.50) – Although Rivers has been a solid performer this season and near the top of fantasy rankings, this is the one week you should turn to your backup if he’s a solid option. Last week Peyton Manning turned in the best performance of the year against Rivers’ opponent this week, the Steelers. The Steelers have only allowed 9 passing touchdowns, and 3 were from Manning last week. They allow 15 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks which ranks as the 3rd toughest.

 

Running BacksTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Brian WestbrookPHIat CIN20.00100%20.00
Frank GoreSFSTL20.00100%20.00
Michael TurnerATLDEN19.50100%19.50
Ronnie BrownMIAOAK18.00100%18.00
Matt ForteCHIat GB18.00100%18.00
Adrian PetersonMINat TB17.50100%17.50
DeAngelo WilliamsCARDET17.50100%17.50
Steve SlatonHOUat IND17.50100%17.50
Joseph AddaiINDHOU17.00100%17.00
Deuce McAllisterNOat KC16.50100%16.50
Chris JohnsonTENat JAX16.50100%16.50
Marion BarberDALat WAS16.50100%16.50
LaDainian TomlinsonSDat PIT16.00100%16.00
Marshawn LynchBUFCLE16.00100%16.00
Brandon JacobsNYGBAL16.00100%16.00
Peyton HillisDENat ATL16.00100%16.00
Larry JohnsonKCNO16.00100%16.00
Thomas JonesNYJat NE15.00100%15.00
Benjarvis Green-EllisNENYJ15.00100%15.00
Mewelde MoorePITSD15.00100%15.00
LenDale WhiteTENat JAX14.50100%14.50
Willis McGaheeBALat NYG14.50100%14.50
Cedric BensonCINPHI14.50100%14.50
Kevin SmithDETat CAR14.00100%14.00
Jamal LewisCLEat BUF14.00100%14.00
Maurice Jones-DrewJAXTEN14.00100%14.00
Ryan GrantGBCHI14.00100%14.00
Ladell BettsWASDAL14100%14.00
Tim HightowerARIat SEA13.50100%13.50
Jonathan StewartCARDET13.00100%13.00
Kevin FaulkNENYJ13.00100%13.00
Justin FargasOAKat MIA12.50100%12.50
Julius JonesSEAARI11.50100%11.50
Earnest GrahamTBMIN11.50100%11.50
Jerious NorwoodATLDEN11.50100%11.50
Ricky WilliamsMIAOAK11.50100%11.50
Willie ParkerPITSD15.50
Alert! 70%
10.85
Ray RiceBALat NYG10.50100%10.50
Steven JacksonSTLat SF17.50
Alert! 60%
10.50
Antonio PittmanSTLat SF13.00
Alert! 80%
10.40
Fred TaylorJAXTEN9.50100%9.50
Dominic RhodesINDHOU9.50100%9.50
Warrick DunnTBMIN9.50100%9.50
Jamaal CharlesKCNO9.00100%9.00
Dantrell SavageKCNO9.00100%9.00
Leon WashingtonNYJat NE8.00100%8.00
LeRon McClainBALat NYG8.00100%8.00
Sammy MorrisNENYJ12.50
Alert! 60%
7.50
Correll BuckhalterPHIat CIN7.00100%7.00
Clinton PortisWASDAL17.50
Alert! 40%
7.00
Fred JacksonBUFCLE6.50100%6.50
JJ ArringtonARIat SEA6.50100%6.50
Ahman GreenHOUat IND6.50100%6.50
Selvin YoungDENat ATL10.00
Alert! 65%
6.50
Derrick WardNYGBAL6.00100%6.00
Rudi JohnsonDETat CAR6.00100%6.00
Ken DarbySTLat SF6.00100%6.00
Darren McFaddenOAKat MIA8.50
Alert! 60%
5.10
Brandon JacksonGBCHI5.00100%5.00
Chester TaylorMINat TB5.00100%5.00
Darren SprolesSDat PIT5.00100%5.00
Michael BushOAKat MIA5.00100%5.00
Edgerrin JamesARIat SEA4.50100%4.50
Felix JonesDALat WAS3.00100%3.00

Start: Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills (Rank: 16.00) – In recent weeks he’s been moving from RB1 to RB2, and in some cases, a flex play. People have started to lose faith with the Bills floundering and Jackson stealing touches. Get him back into that starting lineup with confidence this week. He hasn’t topped 100 yards yet, but this week should be the week. Cleveland has the 26th ranked run defense and gives up yards and touchdowns in bunches to running backs.

Sit: Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens (Rank: 14.50) – I know, I know, he had a huge week last week. Many say if he’s healthy he is the guy and he performs. Well that may be true, but there is no guarantee he dominates the carries this week. Not to mention his opponent is the New York Giants. The Giants have only given up 3 rushing touchdowns in nine weeks. They are only giving 87 rushing yards a game and haven’t allowed any running backs to top 90 yards. Sit Willis.

 

Wide ReceiversTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Anquan BoldinARIat SEA20.00100%20.00
Roddy WhiteATLDEN20.00100%20.00
Steve SmithCARDET20.00100%20.00
Brandon MarshallDENat ATL19.00100%19.00
Larry FitzgeraldARIat SEA18.50100%18.50
Andre JohnsonHOUat IND18.50100%18.50
Reggie WayneINDHOU18.50100%18.50
Marques ColstonNOat KC18.50100%18.50
Dwayne BoweKCNO18.00100%18.00
Eddie RoyalDENat ATL17.50100%17.50
Lee EvansBUFCLE17.50100%17.50
Santana MossWASDAL17.50100%17.50
Donnie AverySTLat SF17.00100%17.00
Calvin JohnsonDETat CAR17.00100%17.00
Greg JenningsGBCHI17.00100%17.00
DeSean JacksonPHIat CIN17.00100%17.00
Randy MossNENYJ16.50100%16.50
Kevin CurtisPHIat CIN16.00100%16.00
Laveranues ColesNYJat NE16.00100%16.00
Plaxico BurressNYGBAL16.00100%16.00
Michael JenkinsATLDEN16.00100%16.00
Santonio HolmesPITSD16.00100%16.00
T.J. HoushmandzadehCINPHI16.00100%16.00
Braylon EdwardsCLEat BUF15.50100%15.50
Bernard BerrianMINat TB15.50100%15.50
Wes WelkerNENYJ15.50100%15.50
Chris ChambersSDat PIT15.50100%15.50
Terrell OwensDALat WAS15.50100%15.50
Jerricho CotcheryNYJat NE15.50100%15.50
Muhsin MuhammadCARDET15.50100%15.50
Kevin WalterHOUat IND15.50100%15.50
Hines WardPITSD15.00100%15.00
Lance MooreNOat KC15.00100%15.00
Steve BreastonARIat SEA15.00100%15.00
Bobby EngramSEAARI15.00100%15.00
Matt JonesJAXTEN14.50100%14.50
Isaac BruceSFSTL14.50100%14.50
Antonio BryantTBMIN14.50100%14.50
Ted Ginn Jr.MIAOAK14.00100%14.00
Chad Ocho CincoCINPHI14.00100%14.00
Torry HoltSTLat SF14.00100%14.00
Anthony GonzalezINDHOU14.00100%14.00
Koren RobinsonSEAARI14.00100%14.00
Greg CamarilloMIAOAK13.50100%13.50
Vincent JacksonSDat PIT13.50100%13.50
Roy WilliamsDALat WAS13.50100%13.50
Antwaan Randle ElWASDAL13.50100%13.50
Bryant JohnsonSFSTL13.00100%13.00
Donald DriverGBCHI13.00100%13.00
Mark BradleyKCNO13.00100%13.00
Amani ToomerNYGBAL12.00100%12.00
Reggie BrownPHIat CIN12.00100%12.00
Joey GallowayTBMIN12.00100%12.00
Michael ClaytonBALat NYG11.50100%11.50
Sidney RiceMINat TB11.50100%11.50
Devery HendersonNOat KC11.50100%11.50
Justin GageTENat JAX11.50100%11.50
Josh MorganSFSTL11.00100%11.00
Rashied DavisCHIat GB11.00100%11.00
Devin HesterCHIat GB11.00100%11.00
Reggie WilliamsJAXTEN11.00100%11.00
Brandon StokleyDENat ATL11.00100%11.00
Chris HenryCINPHI11.00100%11.00
Patrick CraytonDALat WAS11.00100%11.00
Hank BaskettPHIat CIN10.50100%10.50
Marvin HarrisonINDHOU10.50100%10.50
Derrick MasonBALat NYG10.50100%10.50
Arnaz BattleSFSTL10.00100%10.00
Steve SmithNYGBAL9.00100%9.00
Brandon JonesTENat JAX9.00100%9.00
Nate WashingtonPITSD9.00100%9.00
Javon WalkerOAKat MIA8.50100%8.50
Jerry PorterJAXTEN8.50100%8.50
David PattenNOat KC8.00100%8.00
Bobby WadeMINat TB8.00100%8.00
James HardyBUFCLE7.50100%7.50
Chansi StuckeyNYJat NE7.00100%7.00
Marty BookerCHIat GB7.00100%7.00

Start: Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (Rank: 20.00) – Thanks to quarterback Matt Ryan’s instant impact, Roddy White has maintained a torrid pace through the first half of the season. White has seven touchdowns in his last eight games, and has yet to be held under 50 yards receiving this year. He is primed for a big game this week against the Broncos 28th ranked passing defense. The Broncos are still missing their top cornerback, Champ Bailey, and thus should have major problems trying to stop a receiver as explosive as White.

Sit: Tory Holt, St. Louis Rams (Rank: 14.00) – This once elite WR has had trouble getting anything going this year, even when the Rams’ offense was moving the ball. That offense seems to have hit a slump again however, due in part to missing runningback Steven Jackson. Holt can’t do anything if his offense is not clicking, and the possibility of drawing Niners’ cornerback Nate Clements would not help matters. Until St. Louis wakes up again on offense, Holt should be left on your bench.

Tight EndsTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Tony GonzalezKCNO18.50100%18.50
Kellen WinslowCLEat BUF18.00100%18.00
Owen DanielsHOUat IND18.00100%18.00
Dallas ClarkINDHOU17.50100%17.50
Antonio GatesSDat PIT17.50100%17.50
Chris CooleyWASDAL16.50100%16.50
Tony SchefflerDENat ATL17.0095%16.15
L.J. SmithPHIat CIN16.00100%16.00
Anthony FasanoMIAOAK15.50100%15.50
Heath MillerPITSD15.00100%15.00
Donald LeeGBCHI15.00100%15.00
Kevin BossNYGBAL14.50100%14.50
Greg OlsenCHIat GB14.50100%14.50
Bo ScaifeTENat JAX14.50100%14.50
John CarlsonSEAARI14.50100%14.50
Vernon DavisSFSTL14.50100%14.50
Billy MillerNOat KC14.50100%14.50
Jason WittenDALat WAS16.0090%14.40
Dustin KellerNYJat NE14.00100%14.00
Visanthe ShiancoeMINat TB13.50100%13.50
Robert RoyalBUFCLE13.00100%13.00
Desmond ClarkCHIat GB11.50100%11.50
Marcedes LewisJAXTEN10.50100%10.50
Zach MillerOAKat MIA10.50100%10.50
Alex SmithTBMIN10.00100%10.00
Ben WatsonNENYJ9.50100%9.50
Todd HeapBALat NYG9.00100%9.00
Alge CrumplerTENat JAX9.00100%9.00
Brent CelekPHIat CIN9.00100%9.00
Jeremy ShockeyNOat KC11.00
Alert! 80%
8.80
Chris BakerNYJat NE8.00100%8.00
Dante RosarioCARDET8.00100%8.00
Matt SpaethPITSD8.00100%8.00

Start: Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos (Rank: 16.15) – Scheffler’s injury has caused him to drop off many fantasy players’ radars, but the Denver tight end was back in action last week, and caught four passes for 92 yards. As long as he plays he is a solid start, as he is one of the league’s more talented tight ends playing in a very pass happy offense. Make sure his injury allows him to go again this week. As long as he’s relatively healthy, he should be a good start against the Falcons.

Sit: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens (Rank: 9.00) – Heap scored his first two touchdowns of the season last week against the Texans, but I won’t say yet that he’s turned the corner. The Ravens have a much tougher matchup this week against the New York Giants, so I would not expect much from Heap. Still, it is worth keeping an eye on his performance against New York. If he does get involved in the offense, he could be a worthy start down the line. We now know that the Ravens have a quarterback capable of getting him the ball.

KickersTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Rob BironasTENat JAX19.00100%19.00
Matt PraterDENat ATL19.00100%19.00
Ryan LongwellMINat TB19.00100%19.00
Adam VinatieriINDHOU18.00100%18.00
Jason ElamATLDEN18.00100%18.00
Matt BryantTBMIN18.00100%18.00
Stephen GostkowskiNENYJ17.50100%17.50
Mason CrosbyGBCHI17.50100%17.50
Nate KaedingSDat PIT17.00100%17.00
John CarneyNYGBAL17.00100%17.00
Nick FolkDALat WAS17.00100%17.00
Shaun SuishamWASDAL17.00100%17.00
Josh ScobeeJAXTEN17.00100%17.00
David AkersPHIat CIN16.50100%16.50
Jeff ReedPITSD16.50100%16.50
Matt StoverBALat NYG16.00100%16.00
Robbie GouldCHIat GB16.00100%16.00
Kris BrownHOUat IND16.00100%16.00
Neil RackersARIat SEA16.00100%16.00
Joe NedneySFSTL16.00100%16.00
Rian LindellBUFCLE15.50100%15.50
John KasayCARDET15.00100%15.00
Josh BrownSTLat SF14.50100%14.50
Sebastian JanikowskiOAKat MIA14.50100%14.50
Shayne GrahamCINPHI14.50100%14.50
Phil DawsonCLEat BUF14.50100%14.50
Dan CarpenterMIAOAK14.00100%14.00
Olindo MareSEAARI13.50100%13.50
Garrett HartleyNOat KC13.50100%13.50
Jason HansonDETat CAR13.00100%13.00
Connor BarthKCNO12.50100%12.50

Start: Jason Elam, Atlanta Falcons (Rank: 18.00) – The Broncos have allowed the 5th most points in the NFL (27.9) and have also given up the 5th most field goals (20). That makes the dependable Jason Elam a great start. The Falcons’ offense is rolling and should have no problem getting into field goal range against Denver.

Sit: Shayne Graham, Cincinnati Bengals (Rank: 14.50) – There is good news and bad news regarding Shayne Graham. The good news is that he has only missed one field goal all season, and has not missed at all since Week 2. The bad news: He’s only attempted twelve field goals and eight extra points this season. Graham is a good kicker, but with the Bengals struggling like they are, you don’t want him starting, especially against a strong defense like the Eagles have.

DefenseTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Carolina PanthersCARDET19.50100%19.50
Miami DolphinsMIAOAK18.00100%18.00
Philadelphia EaglesPHIat CIN18.00100%18.00
Baltimore RavensBALat NYG17.00100%17.00
Arizona CardinalsARIat SEA17.00100%17.00
Tennessee TitansTENat JAX16.50100%16.50
New York GiantsNYGBAL16.50100%16.50
Pittsburgh SteelersPITSD16.00100%16.00
Green Bay PackersGBCHI16.00100%16.00
Tampa Bay BuccaneersTBMIN16.00100%16.00
Minnesota VikingsMINat TB14.50100%14.50
New England PatriotsNENYJ14.00100%14.00
Buffalo BillsBUFCLE14.00100%14.00
Chicago BearsCHIat GB14.00100%14.00
Washington RedskinsWASDAL13.50100%13.50
San Diego ChargersSDat PIT13.00100%13.00
Jacksonville JaguarsJAXTEN13.00100%13.00
Dallas CowboysDALat WAS13.00100%13.00
New York JetsNYJat NE13.00100%13.00
San Francisco 49ersSFSTL13.00100%13.00
New Orleans SaintsNOat KC12.00100%12.00
Houston TexansHOUat IND12.00100%12.00
Indianapolis ColtsINDHOU12.00100%12.00
Cleveland BrownsCLEat BUF12.00100%12.00
Oakland RaidersOAKat MIA11.50100%11.50
Atlanta FalconsATLDEN10.00100%10.00
Seattle SeahawksSEAARI9.50100%9.50
St. Louis RamsSTLat SF9.50100%9.50
Denver BroncosDENat ATL9.00100%9.00
Cincinnati BengalsCINPHI7.50100%7.50
Detroit LionsDETat CAR6.50100%6.50
Kansas City ChiefsKCNO6.50100%6.50

Start: Miami Dolphins (Rank: 18.00) – The Oakland Raiders have only scored 16 points in their last three games. That would make any defense playing against them a pretty good start. The Dolphins have a solid defense and players like Joey Porter who can get after the quarterback and cause turnovers. This is a good matchup to take advantage of.

Sit: Buffalo Bills (Rank: 14.00) – A lot of the luster has worn off of the Bills during their three game losing streak. The defense has played decently, but it certainly has not looked like the unit that helped the Bills jump out to a 5-1 record through their first six games. The Cleveland Browns’ offense comes into Buffalo with some momentum after putting up 30 points last week in Brady Quinn’s debut. The Browns have weapons like Kellen Winslow, Braylon Edwards, and Jamal Lewis that can hurt any defense if Quinn can put together another good game.

 
Many thanks to the people who helped put this together: treat24, dweenmachine, Amuk, and WaCougMBS who helped with the rankings! If you would like to help with the rankings you can do so here each week.


 
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