Start & SitNovember 19, 2008

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Week 12

By Nick Hopkins

Last week’s leaderboards were dominated by Arizona wide receivers and Carolina runningbacks as the Fitzgerald-Boldin and Stewart-Williams combinations continued to lead their teams to victory. The passing charts were topped by Matt “He’s not Tom Brady” Cassel, who put 400 yards in a losing effort. Steve Slaton continued his impressive rookie campaign with 156 yards on the ground, and Titan wide receiver Justin Gage got fantasy players’ attention with a 147-yard, two-touchdown day (his second straight game with a touchdown). We have some more good matchups on tap for Week 12, including Cardinals-Giants, Panthers-Falcons, Ravens-Eagles, and of course, the undefeated Titans against the AFC East leading Jets. Once again, this week starts off with a Thursday night game (Cincy-Pitt) so get your lineups in on time! Now, on to the rankings…

Our rating system is based on two sets of rankings. The first set is a value between 1-20, given based on a player’s Fantasy Value If Playing (FVIP). The second set is that player’s Playing Probability (PP). These two sets are thrown into a giant machine, twisted around a little, mixed up, sorted, resorted, then eventually darts are thrown at the results. If you require any further help, our start/sit forum is top notch. You will find quick replies to your questions there and many eager helpers!

Peyton ManningINDat SD19.50100%19.50
Kurt WarnerARINYG18.00100%18.00
Tony RomoDALSF18.00100%18.00
Jay CutlerDENOAK17.50100%17.50
Drew BreesNOGB17.00100%17.00
Aaron RodgersGBat NO17.00100%17.00
Jeff GarciaTBat DET17.00100%17.00
Philip RiversSDIND16.50100%16.50
Eli ManningNYGat ARI16.50100%16.50
Matt CasselNEat MIA16.00100%16.00
Ben RoethlisbergerPITCIN16.00100%16.00
Jake DelhommeCARat ATL15.50100%15.50
Chad PenningtonMIANE15.50100%15.50
Trent EdwardsBUFat KC15.50100%15.50
Sage RosenfelsHOUat CLE15.50100%15.50
Jason CampbellWASat SEA15.00100%15.00
David GarrardJAXMIN15.00100%15.00
Shaun HillSFat DAL15.00100%15.00
Kyle OrtonCHIat STL15.5095%14.73
Donovan McNabbPHIat BAL14.50100%14.50
Brady QuinnCLEHOU14.50100%14.50
Kerry CollinsTENNYJ14.50100%14.50
Tyler ThigpenKCBUF14.50100%14.50
Matt RyanATLCAR14.00100%14.00
Brett FavreNYJat TEN14.00100%14.00
Joe FlaccoBALPHI13.50100%13.50
Marc BulgerSTLCHI13.50100%13.50
Gus FrerotteMINat JAX13.50100%13.50
Matt HasselbeckSEAWAS12.00100%12.00
Ryan FitzpatrickCINat PIT11.00100%11.00
JaMarcus RussellOAKat DEN11.0090%9.90
Daunte CulpepperDETTB9.00100%9.00
Andrew WalterOAKat DEN6.50
Alert! 55%
Rex GrossmanCHIat STL9.50
Alert! 30%
Carson PalmerCINat PIT10.50
Alert! 0%
Matt SchaubHOUat CLE14.50
Alert! 0%

Start: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (Rank: 17.00) – Rodgers had slowed down a little from his torrid early season pace, but he had a very strong outing last week against the Bears (227 yards, 2 TDs) as Green Bay routed their division rival. This week Rodgers goes up against another weak pass defense in New Orleans (26th overall). Rodgers and the Packers should have no trouble moving the ball through the air against the Saints.

Sit: Brett Favre, New York Jets (Rank: 14.00) – It may seem like fantasy suicide to sit Brett Favre this year, but if you have a solid backup this might be a good week to do it. Favre and the Jets play the NFL’s best defense this week on the road in Tennessee. The Titans are 6th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, and have only given up five passing touchdowns on the season.


Running BacksTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Matt ForteCHIat STL20.00100%20.00
Steve SlatonHOUat CLE19.00100%19.00
Adrian PetersonMINat JAX19.00100%19.00
Marion BarberDALSF18.50100%18.50
LaDainian TomlinsonSDIND18.50100%18.50
Marshawn LynchBUFat KC18.00100%18.00
Willie ParkerPITCIN17.50100%17.50
Clinton PortisWASat SEA17.50100%17.50
Joseph AddaiINDat SD17.50100%17.50
Brandon JacobsNYGat ARI17.50100%17.50
Frank GoreSFat DAL17.00100%17.00
Warrick DunnTBat DET17.00100%17.00
Ryan GrantGBat NO16.50100%16.50
Peyton HillisDENOAK16.00100%16.00
Michael TurnerATLCAR15.50100%15.50
DeAngelo WilliamsCARat ATL15.50100%15.50
Deuce McAllisterNOGB15.50100%15.50
Chris JohnsonTENNYJ15.50100%15.50
Jamal LewisCLEHOU15.50100%15.50
Justin FargasOAKat DEN15.50100%15.50
Larry JohnsonKCBUF15.00100%15.00
Jonathan StewartCARat ATL14.50100%14.50
Benjarvis Green-EllisNEat MIA14.00100%14.00
Ronnie BrownMIANE14.00100%14.00
Willis McGaheeBALPHI14.00100%14.00
Kevin SmithDETTB13.50100%13.50
Tim HightowerARINYG13.50100%13.50
Brian WestbrookPHIat BAL13.00100%13.00
Pierre ThomasNOGB13.00100%13.00
Jerious NorwoodATLCAR12.50100%12.50
Ricky WilliamsMIANE12.50100%12.50
Thomas JonesNYJat TEN12.50100%12.50
Kevin FaulkNEat MIA12.00100%12.00
Maurice Jones-DrewJAXMIN12.00100%12.00
Ahman GreenHOUat CLE11.50100%11.50
Antonio PittmanSTLCHI12.5090%11.25
Mewelde MoorePITCIN11.00100%11.00
LenDale WhiteTENNYJ11.00100%11.00
Leon WashingtonNYJat TEN11.00100%11.00
Derrick WardNYGat ARI11.00100%11.00
Sammy MorrisNEat MIA12.0090%10.80
Julius JonesSEAWAS10.00100%10.00
Ray RiceBALPHI9.50100%9.50
JJ ArringtonARINYG9.50100%9.50
Chester TaylorMINat JAX9.50100%9.50
Dominic RhodesINDat SD9.00100%9.00
Fred TaylorJAXMIN9.00100%9.00
LeRon McClainBALPHI9.00100%9.00
Fred JacksonBUFat KC8.50100%8.50
Jamaal CharlesKCBUF8.50100%8.50
Cedric BensonCINat PIT8.50100%8.50
Darren SprolesSDIND8.50100%8.50
Brandon JacksonGBat NO8.00100%8.00
Ladell BettsWASat SEA8.00100%8.00
Rudi JohnsonDETTB8.00100%8.00
Correll BuckhalterPHIat BAL7.50100%7.50
Darren McFaddenOAKat DEN11.00
Alert! 60%
Dantrell SavageKCBUF5.50100%5.50
Ken DarbySTLCHI5.00100%5.00
Michael BushOAKat DEN5.00100%5.00
Edgerrin JamesARINYG4.50100%4.50
Selvin YoungDENOAK14.00
Alert! 30%
Reggie BushNOGB16.00
Alert! 25%
Felix JonesDALSF12.00
Alert! 10%
Steven JacksonSTLCHI12.00
Alert! 0%

Start: Steve Slaton, Houston Texans (Rank: 19.00) – Slaton has been a solid fantasy contributor all year, but last week may have been his best game, as he racked up 156 yards against the Colts with only 14 carries. He faces another weak run defense this week in the Browns, who had all kinds of trouble stopping Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson last Monday Night. Expect another big day from Steve Slaton.

Sit: Fred Taylor, Jacksonville Jaguars (Rank: 9.00) – I don’t know if anyone is still starting Taylor, as Maurice Jones-Drew seems to have taken the lion’s share of the carries, and certainly the touchdowns (11 to 0) but this is not a matchup you would want him in your lineup for. The Vikings routinely shut down top runningbacks – they rank 2nd in the NFL against the run. This sit recommendation holds for Jones-Drew too, to an extent, but I wouldn’t bet against the little guy finding the endzone somehow, even if the Jags can’t get the running game going.


Wide ReceiversTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Reggie WayneINDat SD19.50100%19.50
Steve SmithCARat ATL18.50100%18.50
Greg JenningsGBat NO18.50100%18.50
Larry FitzgeraldARINYG17.50100%17.50
Andre JohnsonHOUat CLE17.50100%17.50
Santana MossWASat SEA17.50100%17.50
Randy MossNEat MIA17.50100%17.50
Anquan BoldinARINYG17.00100%17.00
Braylon EdwardsCLEHOU17.00100%17.00
Antonio BryantTBat DET17.00100%17.00
Roddy WhiteATLCAR16.50100%16.50
Terrell OwensDALSF16.50100%16.50
Lee EvansBUFat KC16.00100%16.00
Eddie RoyalDENOAK16.00100%16.00
Donnie AverySTLCHI16.00100%16.00
Plaxico BurressNYGat ARI16.00100%16.00
Hines WardPITCIN16.00100%16.00
Calvin JohnsonDETTB15.50100%15.50
Brandon MarshallDENOAK15.50100%15.50
Dwayne BoweKCBUF15.50100%15.50
Wes WelkerNEat MIA15.50100%15.50
Vincent JacksonSDIND15.00100%15.00
Marques ColstonNOGB15.00100%15.00
DeSean JacksonPHIat BAL15.00100%15.00
Santonio HolmesPITCIN15.00100%15.00
Kevin WalterHOUat CLE15.00100%15.00
T.J. HoushmandzadehCINat PIT14.50100%14.50
Jerricho CotcheryNYJat TEN14.50100%14.50
Steve BreastonARINYG14.50100%14.50
Marvin HarrisonINDat SD14.50100%14.50
Laveranues ColesNYJat TEN14.00100%14.00
Muhsin MuhammadCARat ATL14.00100%14.00
Greg CamarilloMIANE14.00100%14.00
Donald DriverGBat NO14.00100%14.00
Justin GageTENNYJ14.00100%14.00
Derrick MasonBALPHI14.00100%14.00
Sidney RiceMINat JAX13.50100%13.50
Anthony GonzalezINDat SD13.50100%13.50
Ted Ginn Jr.MIANE13.50100%13.50
Bobby WadeMINat JAX13.00100%13.00
Bernard BerrianMINat JAX13.00100%13.00
Lance MooreNOGB13.00100%13.00
Bobby EngramSEAWAS13.00100%13.00
Isaac BruceSFat DAL13.00100%13.00
Roy WilliamsDALSF13.00100%13.00
Rashied DavisCHIat STL13.00100%13.00
Devin HesterCHIat STL13.00100%13.00
Reggie WilliamsJAXMIN13.00100%13.00
Kevin CurtisPHIat BAL12.50100%12.50
Chris ChambersSDIND12.50100%12.50
Bryant JohnsonSFat DAL12.50100%12.50
Michael ClaytonBALPHI12.50100%12.50
Hank BaskettPHIat BAL12.50100%12.50
Nate WashingtonPITCIN12.50100%12.50
Torry HoltSTLCHI12.50100%12.50
Amani ToomerNYGat ARI12.00100%12.00
Michael JenkinsATLCAR12.00100%12.00
Chad Ocho CincoCINat PIT12.00100%12.00
Koren RobinsonSEAWAS12.00100%12.00
Mark BradleyKCBUF12.00100%12.00
Brandon JonesTENNYJ12.00100%12.00
Devery HendersonNOGB11.50100%11.50
Reggie BrownPHIat BAL10.50100%10.50
Chansi StuckeyNYJat TEN10.50100%10.50
Antwaan Randle ElWASat SEA10.50100%10.50
Brandon StokleyDENOAK10.50100%10.50
Steve SmithNYGat ARI10.50100%10.50
Arnaz BattleSFat DAL9.50100%9.50
James HardyBUFat KC9.50100%9.50
Marty BookerCHIat STL9.50100%9.50
Joey GallowayTBat DET9.50100%9.50
Josh MorganSFat DAL12.50
Alert! 75%
Chris HenryCINat PIT9.00100%9.00
Patrick CraytonDALSF9.00100%9.00
Jerry PorterJAXMIN8.50100%8.50
David PattenNOGB8.50100%8.50
Matt JonesJAXMIN15.00
Alert! 55%
Javon WalkerOAKat DEN9.50
Alert! 50%

Start: Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Rank: 17.00) – Bryant is quietly having a good year, with 50 catches for 625 yards through 10 games. He’s gone over 100 yards three times this season, and has a chance to do that again against the hapless Lions. The Lions rank 23rd in the NFL against the pass and have allowed 16 passing touchdowns on the year (tied for 5th most).

Sit: Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles (Rank: 12.50) – Curtis showed some potential in his return from his injury, but he has yet to have his breakthrough game, and I doubt it will be this week against the Ravens. Baltimore is home to one of the best defenses in the NFL. They will likely give a struggling Philly offense all they can handle.

Tight EndsTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Dallas ClarkINDat SD19.50100%19.50
Greg OlsenCHIat STL18.00100%18.00
Jason WittenDALSF18.00100%18.00
Kellen WinslowCLEHOU17.50100%17.50
Chris CooleyWASat SEA17.00100%17.00
Bo ScaifeTENNYJ17.00100%17.00
Antonio GatesSDIND16.50100%16.50
Owen DanielsHOUat CLE16.00100%16.00
Donald LeeGBat NO16.00100%16.00
Kevin BossNYGat ARI16.00100%16.00
Zach MillerOAKat DEN15.50100%15.50
Dustin KellerNYJat TEN15.50100%15.50
Tony SchefflerDENOAK14.50100%14.50
Tony GonzalezKCBUF14.50100%14.50
Heath MillerPITCIN14.50100%14.50
Visanthe ShiancoeMINat JAX14.50100%14.50
Marcedes LewisJAXMIN14.00100%14.00
Anthony FasanoMIANE13.50100%13.50
Vernon DavisSFat DAL13.50100%13.50
Robert RoyalBUFat KC13.00100%13.00
Ben WatsonNEat MIA13.00100%13.00
Desmond ClarkCHIat STL12.50100%12.50
Jeremy ShockeyNOGB12.50100%12.50
Billy MillerNOGB12.00100%12.00
L.J. SmithPHIat BAL11.50100%11.50
John CarlsonSEAWAS11.50100%11.50
Todd HeapBALPHI10.50100%10.50
Dante RosarioCARat ATL10.00100%10.00
Alex SmithTBat DET13.50
Alert! 70%
Chris BakerNYJat TEN9.00100%9.00
Alge CrumplerTENNYJ8.50100%8.50
Brent CelekPHIat BAL8.50100%8.50
Matt SpaethPITCIN7.00100%7.00

Start: Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears (Rank: 18.00) – Olsen has been consistently targeted by Bears’ quarterbacks this season and his matchup this week is a good one. The St. Louis Rams have been laying down for everyone recently. Their pass defense ranks in the bottom 5 of the NFL and they have given up more passing touchdowns (18) than any other team.

Sit: Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints (Rank: 12.50) – Shockey’s production has been mediocre since returning from his injury. He may still have time to turn it around and get more involved in the offense, but right now he is not a great option at tight end. He is also still bothered by a nagging ankle injury.

Nick FolkDALSF19.00100%19.00
Stephen GostkowskiNEat MIA19.00100%19.00
Mason CrosbyGBat NO18.00100%18.00
Phil DawsonCLEHOU17.00100%17.00
Ryan LongwellMINat JAX17.00100%17.00
Josh ScobeeJAXMIN16.50100%16.50
Nate KaedingSDIND16.50100%16.50
Matt StoverBALPHI16.50100%16.50
Robbie GouldCHIat STL16.50100%16.50
Rob BironasTENNYJ16.50100%16.50
Adam VinatieriINDat SD16.50100%16.50
Kris BrownHOUat CLE16.50100%16.50
Jeff ReedPITCIN16.00100%16.00
Rian LindellBUFat KC16.00100%16.00
Neil RackersARINYG16.00100%16.00
Matt BryantTBat DET15.50100%15.50
Shaun SuishamWASat SEA15.50100%15.50
Sebastian JanikowskiOAKat DEN15.50100%15.50
Matt PraterDENOAK15.00100%15.00
David AkersPHIat BAL15.00100%15.00
Jason ElamATLCAR15.00100%15.00
John KasayCARat ATL14.50100%14.50
Dan CarpenterMIANE14.50100%14.50
Joe NedneySFat DAL13.50100%13.50
Josh BrownSTLCHI13.00100%13.00
Garrett HartleyNOGB13.00100%13.00
Connor BarthKCBUF12.50100%12.50
John CarneyNYGat ARI12.50100%12.50
Olindo MareSEAWAS12.50100%12.50
Jason HansonDETTB12.00100%12.00
Shayne GrahamCINat PIT11.00100%11.00

Start: Shaun Suisham, Washington Redskins (Rank: 15.50) – The Washington offense has had two bad weeks in a row, but Suisham has been solid when he’s gotten his chances. The Skins play a much weaker defense this week in Seattle. The Seahawks have also given up 25 field goals this year, tied for second in the league. Suisham is likely available in your league if you are rotating kickers and need a better option.

Sit: John Kasay, Carolina Panthers (Rank: 14.50) – Kasay has not reached double digits in points for three weeks now. I don’t expect that to change this week against a solid defense in Atlanta that has only allowed 10 field goals all year (second best only to the Titans).

Tampa Bay BuccaneersTBat DET20.00100%20.00
Pittsburgh SteelersPITCIN18.50100%18.50
Chicago BearsCHIat STL17.50100%17.50
Tennessee TitansTENNYJ17.00100%17.00
Philadelphia EaglesPHIat BAL16.00100%16.00
Baltimore RavensBALPHI16.00100%16.00
Washington RedskinsWASat SEA15.50100%15.50
Dallas CowboysDALSF15.50100%15.50
Minnesota VikingsMINat JAX15.00100%15.00
New York GiantsNYGat ARI14.50100%14.50
New England PatriotsNEat MIA14.00100%14.00
Denver BroncosDENOAK14.00100%14.00
Carolina PanthersCARat ATL13.50100%13.50
Miami DolphinsMIANE13.50100%13.50
Green Bay PackersGBat NO13.50100%13.50
Buffalo BillsBUFat KC13.50100%13.50
New York JetsNYJat TEN13.50100%13.50
Indianapolis ColtsINDat SD13.50100%13.50
Houston TexansHOUat CLE13.00100%13.00
Arizona CardinalsARINYG13.00100%13.00
Jacksonville JaguarsJAXMIN13.00100%13.00
Cleveland BrownsCLEHOU13.00100%13.00
Atlanta FalconsATLCAR12.50100%12.50
Seattle SeahawksSEAWAS11.50100%11.50
San Francisco 49ersSFat DAL11.00100%11.00
Cincinnati BengalsCINat PIT11.00100%11.00
San Diego ChargersSDIND10.50100%10.50
New Orleans SaintsNOGB10.50100%10.50
St. Louis RamsSTLCHI9.50100%9.50
Kansas City ChiefsKCBUF9.50100%9.50
Oakland RaidersOAKat DEN8.50100%8.50
Detroit LionsDETTB6.50100%6.50

Start: Dallas Cowboys (Rank: 15.50) – Terrence Newman’s return seems to have helped shore up the Cowboys’ pass defense. Their pass rush looked dominating last week against Washington. The Cowboys should be able to handle the 49ers this week, while recording several sacks and some turnovers as well.

Sit: New England Patriots (Rank: 14.00) – The Patriots have been a top 10 defense this year in terms of scoring, but this week is not one of their more favorable matchups. A game in Dolphin Stadium would not have looked very scary last year, but the Dolphins and their wildcat offense have defensive coordinators losing sleep these days. The Pats gave up 38 points the last time they faced Miami, and while I don’t see that happening again, I don’t think this will be a walk in the park either. Sit the Patriots’ defense if you can find a better option.

Many thanks to the people who helped put this together: treat24, madaslives911, utility-hook, WaCougMBS, and Amuk who helped with the rankings! If you would like to help with the rankings you can do so here each week.

Nick Hopkins is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Nick in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of terpfan.
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