Week 12

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Last week’s leaderboards were dominated by Arizona wide receivers and Carolina runningbacks as the Fitzgerald-Boldin and Stewart-Williams combinations continued to lead their teams to victory. The passing charts were topped by Matt “He’s not Tom Brady” Cassel, who put 400 yards in a losing effort. Steve Slaton continued his impressive rookie campaign with 156 yards on the ground, and Titan wide receiver Justin Gage got fantasy players’ attention with a 147-yard, two-touchdown day (his second straight game with a touchdown). We have some more good matchups on tap for Week 12, including Cardinals-Giants, Panthers-Falcons, Ravens-Eagles, and of course, the undefeated Titans against the AFC East leading Jets. Once again, this week starts off with a Thursday night game (Cincy-Pitt) so get your lineups in on time! Now, on to the rankings…

Our rating system is based on two sets of rankings. The first set is a value between 1-20, given based on a player’s Fantasy Value If Playing (FVIP). The second set is that player’s Playing Probability (PP). These two sets are thrown into a giant machine, twisted around a little, mixed up, sorted, resorted, then eventually darts are thrown at the results. If you require any further help, our start/sit forum is top notch. You will find quick replies to your questions there and many eager helpers!

Quarterbacks	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Peyton Manning	IND	at SD	19.50	100%	19.50
Kurt Warner	ARI	NYG	18.00	100%	18.00
Tony Romo	DAL	SF	18.00	100%	18.00
Jay Cutler	DEN	OAK	17.50	100%	17.50
Drew Brees	NO	GB	17.00	100%	17.00
Aaron Rodgers	GB	at NO	17.00	100%	17.00
Jeff Garcia	TB	at DET	17.00	100%	17.00
Philip Rivers	SD	IND	16.50	100%	16.50
Eli Manning	NYG	at ARI	16.50	100%	16.50
Matt Cassel	NE	at MIA	16.00	100%	16.00
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	CIN	16.00	100%	16.00
Jake Delhomme	CAR	at ATL	15.50	100%	15.50
Chad Pennington	MIA	NE	15.50	100%	15.50
Trent Edwards	BUF	at KC	15.50	100%	15.50
Sage Rosenfels	HOU	at CLE	15.50	100%	15.50
Jason Campbell	WAS	at SEA	15.00	100%	15.00
David Garrard	JAX	MIN	15.00	100%	15.00
Shaun Hill	SF	at DAL	15.00	100%	15.00
Kyle Orton	CHI	at STL	15.50	95%	14.73
Donovan McNabb	PHI	at BAL	14.50	100%	14.50
Brady Quinn	CLE	HOU	14.50	100%	14.50
Kerry Collins	TEN	NYJ	14.50	100%	14.50
Tyler Thigpen	KC	BUF	14.50	100%	14.50
Matt Ryan	ATL	CAR	14.00	100%	14.00
Brett Favre	NYJ	at TEN	14.00	100%	14.00
Joe Flacco	BAL	PHI	13.50	100%	13.50
Marc Bulger	STL	CHI	13.50	100%	13.50
Gus Frerotte	MIN	at JAX	13.50	100%	13.50
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	WAS	12.00	100%	12.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick	CIN	at PIT	11.00	100%	11.00
JaMarcus Russell	OAK	at DEN	11.00	90%	9.90
Daunte Culpepper	DET	TB	9.00	100%	9.00
Andrew Walter	OAK	at DEN	6.50	55%	3.58
Rex Grossman	CHI	at STL	9.50	30%	2.85
Carson Palmer	CIN	at PIT	10.50	0%	0.00
Matt Schaub	HOU	at CLE	14.50	0%	0.00

Start: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (Rank: 17.00) – Rodgers had slowed down a little from his torrid early season pace, but he had a very strong outing last week against the Bears (227 yards, 2 TDs) as Green Bay routed their division rival. This week Rodgers goes up against another weak pass defense in New Orleans (26th overall). Rodgers and the Packers should have no trouble moving the ball through the air against the Saints.

Sit: Brett Favre, New York Jets (Rank: 14.00) – It may seem like fantasy suicide to sit Brett Favre this year, but if you have a solid backup this might be a good week to do it. Favre and the Jets play the NFL’s best defense this week on the road in Tennessee. The Titans are 6th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, and have only given up five passing touchdowns on the season.

 

Running Backs	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Matt Forte	CHI	at STL	20.00	100%	20.00
Steve Slaton	HOU	at CLE	19.00	100%	19.00
Adrian Peterson	MIN	at JAX	19.00	100%	19.00
Marion Barber	DAL	SF	18.50	100%	18.50
LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	IND	18.50	100%	18.50
Marshawn Lynch	BUF	at KC	18.00	100%	18.00
Willie Parker	PIT	CIN	17.50	100%	17.50
Clinton Portis	WAS	at SEA	17.50	100%	17.50
Joseph Addai	IND	at SD	17.50	100%	17.50
Brandon Jacobs	NYG	at ARI	17.50	100%	17.50
Frank Gore	SF	at DAL	17.00	100%	17.00
Warrick Dunn	TB	at DET	17.00	100%	17.00
Ryan Grant	GB	at NO	16.50	100%	16.50
Peyton Hillis	DEN	OAK	16.00	100%	16.00
Michael Turner	ATL	CAR	15.50	100%	15.50
DeAngelo Williams	CAR	at ATL	15.50	100%	15.50
Deuce McAllister	NO	GB	15.50	100%	15.50
Chris Johnson	TEN	NYJ	15.50	100%	15.50
Jamal Lewis	CLE	HOU	15.50	100%	15.50
Justin Fargas	OAK	at DEN	15.50	100%	15.50
Larry Johnson	KC	BUF	15.00	100%	15.00
Jonathan Stewart	CAR	at ATL	14.50	100%	14.50
Benjarvis Green-Ellis	NE	at MIA	14.00	100%	14.00
Ronnie Brown	MIA	NE	14.00	100%	14.00
Willis McGahee	BAL	PHI	14.00	100%	14.00
Kevin Smith	DET	TB	13.50	100%	13.50
Tim Hightower	ARI	NYG	13.50	100%	13.50
Brian Westbrook	PHI	at BAL	13.00	100%	13.00
Pierre Thomas	NO	GB	13.00	100%	13.00
Jerious Norwood	ATL	CAR	12.50	100%	12.50
Ricky Williams	MIA	NE	12.50	100%	12.50
Thomas Jones	NYJ	at TEN	12.50	100%	12.50
Kevin Faulk	NE	at MIA	12.00	100%	12.00
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	MIN	12.00	100%	12.00
Ahman Green	HOU	at CLE	11.50	100%	11.50
Antonio Pittman	STL	CHI	12.50	90%	11.25
Mewelde Moore	PIT	CIN	11.00	100%	11.00
LenDale White	TEN	NYJ	11.00	100%	11.00
Leon Washington	NYJ	at TEN	11.00	100%	11.00
Derrick Ward	NYG	at ARI	11.00	100%	11.00
Sammy Morris	NE	at MIA	12.00	90%	10.80
Julius Jones	SEA	WAS	10.00	100%	10.00
Ray Rice	BAL	PHI	9.50	100%	9.50
JJ Arrington	ARI	NYG	9.50	100%	9.50
Chester Taylor	MIN	at JAX	9.50	100%	9.50
Dominic Rhodes	IND	at SD	9.00	100%	9.00
Fred Taylor	JAX	MIN	9.00	100%	9.00
LeRon McClain	BAL	PHI	9.00	100%	9.00
Fred Jackson	BUF	at KC	8.50	100%	8.50
Jamaal Charles	KC	BUF	8.50	100%	8.50
Cedric Benson	CIN	at PIT	8.50	100%	8.50
Darren Sproles	SD	IND	8.50	100%	8.50
Brandon Jackson	GB	at NO	8.00	100%	8.00
Ladell Betts	WAS	at SEA	8.00	100%	8.00
Rudi Johnson	DET	TB	8.00	100%	8.00
Correll Buckhalter	PHI	at BAL	7.50	100%	7.50
Darren McFadden	OAK	at DEN	11.00	60%	6.60
Dantrell Savage	KC	BUF	5.50	100%	5.50
Ken Darby	STL	CHI	5.00	100%	5.00
Michael Bush	OAK	at DEN	5.00	100%	5.00
Edgerrin James	ARI	NYG	4.50	100%	4.50
Selvin Young	DEN	OAK	14.00	30%	4.20
Reggie Bush	NO	GB	16.00	25%	4.00
Felix Jones	DAL	SF	12.00	10%	1.20
Steven Jackson	STL	CHI	12.00	0%	0.00

Start: Steve Slaton, Houston Texans (Rank: 19.00) – Slaton has been a solid fantasy contributor all year, but last week may have been his best game, as he racked up 156 yards against the Colts with only 14 carries. He faces another weak run defense this week in the Browns, who had all kinds of trouble stopping Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson last Monday Night. Expect another big day from Steve Slaton.

Sit: Fred Taylor, Jacksonville Jaguars (Rank: 9.00) – I don’t know if anyone is still starting Taylor, as Maurice Jones-Drew seems to have taken the lion’s share of the carries, and certainly the touchdowns (11 to 0) but this is not a matchup you would want him in your lineup for. The Vikings routinely shut down top runningbacks – they rank 2nd in the NFL against the run. This sit recommendation holds for Jones-Drew too, to an extent, but I wouldn’t bet against the little guy finding the endzone somehow, even if the Jags can’t get the running game going.

 

Wide Receivers	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Reggie Wayne	IND	at SD	19.50	100%	19.50
Steve Smith	CAR	at ATL	18.50	100%	18.50
Greg Jennings	GB	at NO	18.50	100%	18.50
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	NYG	17.50	100%	17.50
Andre Johnson	HOU	at CLE	17.50	100%	17.50
Santana Moss	WAS	at SEA	17.50	100%	17.50
Randy Moss	NE	at MIA	17.50	100%	17.50
Anquan Boldin	ARI	NYG	17.00	100%	17.00
Braylon Edwards	CLE	HOU	17.00	100%	17.00
Antonio Bryant	TB	at DET	17.00	100%	17.00
Roddy White	ATL	CAR	16.50	100%	16.50
Terrell Owens	DAL	SF	16.50	100%	16.50
Lee Evans	BUF	at KC	16.00	100%	16.00
Eddie Royal	DEN	OAK	16.00	100%	16.00
Donnie Avery	STL	CHI	16.00	100%	16.00
Plaxico Burress	NYG	at ARI	16.00	100%	16.00
Hines Ward	PIT	CIN	16.00	100%	16.00
Calvin Johnson	DET	TB	15.50	100%	15.50
Brandon Marshall	DEN	OAK	15.50	100%	15.50
Dwayne Bowe	KC	BUF	15.50	100%	15.50
Wes Welker	NE	at MIA	15.50	100%	15.50
Vincent Jackson	SD	IND	15.00	100%	15.00
Marques Colston	NO	GB	15.00	100%	15.00
DeSean Jackson	PHI	at BAL	15.00	100%	15.00
Santonio Holmes	PIT	CIN	15.00	100%	15.00
Kevin Walter	HOU	at CLE	15.00	100%	15.00
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	at PIT	14.50	100%	14.50
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	at TEN	14.50	100%	14.50
Steve Breaston	ARI	NYG	14.50	100%	14.50
Marvin Harrison	IND	at SD	14.50	100%	14.50
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	at TEN	14.00	100%	14.00
Muhsin Muhammad	CAR	at ATL	14.00	100%	14.00
Greg Camarillo	MIA	NE	14.00	100%	14.00
Donald Driver	GB	at NO	14.00	100%	14.00
Justin Gage	TEN	NYJ	14.00	100%	14.00
Derrick Mason	BAL	PHI	14.00	100%	14.00
Sidney Rice	MIN	at JAX	13.50	100%	13.50
Anthony Gonzalez	IND	at SD	13.50	100%	13.50
Ted Ginn Jr.	MIA	NE	13.50	100%	13.50
Bobby Wade	MIN	at JAX	13.00	100%	13.00
Bernard Berrian	MIN	at JAX	13.00	100%	13.00
Lance Moore	NO	GB	13.00	100%	13.00
Bobby Engram	SEA	WAS	13.00	100%	13.00
Isaac Bruce	SF	at DAL	13.00	100%	13.00
Roy Williams	DAL	SF	13.00	100%	13.00
Rashied Davis	CHI	at STL	13.00	100%	13.00
Devin Hester	CHI	at STL	13.00	100%	13.00
Reggie Williams	JAX	MIN	13.00	100%	13.00
Kevin Curtis	PHI	at BAL	12.50	100%	12.50
Chris Chambers	SD	IND	12.50	100%	12.50
Bryant Johnson	SF	at DAL	12.50	100%	12.50
Michael Clayton	BAL	PHI	12.50	100%	12.50
Hank Baskett	PHI	at BAL	12.50	100%	12.50
Nate Washington	PIT	CIN	12.50	100%	12.50
Torry Holt	STL	CHI	12.50	100%	12.50
Amani Toomer	NYG	at ARI	12.00	100%	12.00
Michael Jenkins	ATL	CAR	12.00	100%	12.00
Chad Ocho Cinco	CIN	at PIT	12.00	100%	12.00
Koren Robinson	SEA	WAS	12.00	100%	12.00
Mark Bradley	KC	BUF	12.00	100%	12.00
Brandon Jones	TEN	NYJ	12.00	100%	12.00
Devery Henderson	NO	GB	11.50	100%	11.50
Reggie Brown	PHI	at BAL	10.50	100%	10.50
Chansi Stuckey	NYJ	at TEN	10.50	100%	10.50
Antwaan Randle El	WAS	at SEA	10.50	100%	10.50
Brandon Stokley	DEN	OAK	10.50	100%	10.50
Steve Smith	NYG	at ARI	10.50	100%	10.50
Arnaz Battle	SF	at DAL	9.50	100%	9.50
James Hardy	BUF	at KC	9.50	100%	9.50
Marty Booker	CHI	at STL	9.50	100%	9.50
Joey Galloway	TB	at DET	9.50	100%	9.50
Josh Morgan	SF	at DAL	12.50	75%	9.38
Chris Henry	CIN	at PIT	9.00	100%	9.00
Patrick Crayton	DAL	SF	9.00	100%	9.00
Jerry Porter	JAX	MIN	8.50	100%	8.50
David Patten	NO	GB	8.50	100%	8.50
Matt Jones	JAX	MIN	15.00	55%	8.25
Javon Walker	OAK	at DEN	9.50	50%	4.75

Start: Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Rank: 17.00) – Bryant is quietly having a good year, with 50 catches for 625 yards through 10 games. He’s gone over 100 yards three times this season, and has a chance to do that again against the hapless Lions. The Lions rank 23rd in the NFL against the pass and have allowed 16 passing touchdowns on the year (tied for 5th most).

Sit: Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles (Rank: 12.50) – Curtis showed some potential in his return from his injury, but he has yet to have his breakthrough game, and I doubt it will be this week against the Ravens. Baltimore is home to one of the best defenses in the NFL. They will likely give a struggling Philly offense all they can handle.

Tight Ends	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Dallas Clark	IND	at SD	19.50	100%	19.50
Greg Olsen	CHI	at STL	18.00	100%	18.00
Jason Witten	DAL	SF	18.00	100%	18.00
Kellen Winslow	CLE	HOU	17.50	100%	17.50
Chris Cooley	WAS	at SEA	17.00	100%	17.00
Bo Scaife	TEN	NYJ	17.00	100%	17.00
Antonio Gates	SD	IND	16.50	100%	16.50
Owen Daniels	HOU	at CLE	16.00	100%	16.00
Donald Lee	GB	at NO	16.00	100%	16.00
Kevin Boss	NYG	at ARI	16.00	100%	16.00
Zach Miller	OAK	at DEN	15.50	100%	15.50
Dustin Keller	NYJ	at TEN	15.50	100%	15.50
Tony Scheffler	DEN	OAK	14.50	100%	14.50
Tony Gonzalez	KC	BUF	14.50	100%	14.50
Heath Miller	PIT	CIN	14.50	100%	14.50
Visanthe Shiancoe	MIN	at JAX	14.50	100%	14.50
Marcedes Lewis	JAX	MIN	14.00	100%	14.00
Anthony Fasano	MIA	NE	13.50	100%	13.50
Vernon Davis	SF	at DAL	13.50	100%	13.50
Robert Royal	BUF	at KC	13.00	100%	13.00
Ben Watson	NE	at MIA	13.00	100%	13.00
Desmond Clark	CHI	at STL	12.50	100%	12.50
Jeremy Shockey	NO	GB	12.50	100%	12.50
Billy Miller	NO	GB	12.00	100%	12.00
L.J. Smith	PHI	at BAL	11.50	100%	11.50
John Carlson	SEA	WAS	11.50	100%	11.50
Todd Heap	BAL	PHI	10.50	100%	10.50
Dante Rosario	CAR	at ATL	10.00	100%	10.00
Alex Smith	TB	at DET	13.50	70%	9.45
Chris Baker	NYJ	at TEN	9.00	100%	9.00
Alge Crumpler	TEN	NYJ	8.50	100%	8.50
Brent Celek	PHI	at BAL	8.50	100%	8.50
Matt Spaeth	PIT	CIN	7.00	100%	7.00

Start: Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears (Rank: 18.00) – Olsen has been consistently targeted by Bears’ quarterbacks this season and his matchup this week is a good one. The St. Louis Rams have been laying down for everyone recently. Their pass defense ranks in the bottom 5 of the NFL and they have given up more passing touchdowns (18) than any other team.

Sit: Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints (Rank: 12.50) – Shockey’s production has been mediocre since returning from his injury. He may still have time to turn it around and get more involved in the offense, but right now he is not a great option at tight end. He is also still bothered by a nagging ankle injury.

Kickers	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Nick Folk	DAL	SF	19.00	100%	19.00
Stephen Gostkowski	NE	at MIA	19.00	100%	19.00
Mason Crosby	GB	at NO	18.00	100%	18.00
Phil Dawson	CLE	HOU	17.00	100%	17.00
Ryan Longwell	MIN	at JAX	17.00	100%	17.00
Josh Scobee	JAX	MIN	16.50	100%	16.50
Nate Kaeding	SD	IND	16.50	100%	16.50
Matt Stover	BAL	PHI	16.50	100%	16.50
Robbie Gould	CHI	at STL	16.50	100%	16.50
Rob Bironas	TEN	NYJ	16.50	100%	16.50
Adam Vinatieri	IND	at SD	16.50	100%	16.50
Kris Brown	HOU	at CLE	16.50	100%	16.50
Jeff Reed	PIT	CIN	16.00	100%	16.00
Rian Lindell	BUF	at KC	16.00	100%	16.00
Neil Rackers	ARI	NYG	16.00	100%	16.00
Matt Bryant	TB	at DET	15.50	100%	15.50
Shaun Suisham	WAS	at SEA	15.50	100%	15.50
Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	at DEN	15.50	100%	15.50
Matt Prater	DEN	OAK	15.00	100%	15.00
David Akers	PHI	at BAL	15.00	100%	15.00
Jason Elam	ATL	CAR	15.00	100%	15.00
John Kasay	CAR	at ATL	14.50	100%	14.50
Dan Carpenter	MIA	NE	14.50	100%	14.50
Joe Nedney	SF	at DAL	13.50	100%	13.50
Josh Brown	STL	CHI	13.00	100%	13.00
Garrett Hartley	NO	GB	13.00	100%	13.00
Connor Barth	KC	BUF	12.50	100%	12.50
John Carney	NYG	at ARI	12.50	100%	12.50
Olindo Mare	SEA	WAS	12.50	100%	12.50
Jason Hanson	DET	TB	12.00	100%	12.00
Shayne Graham	CIN	at PIT	11.00	100%	11.00

Start: Shaun Suisham, Washington Redskins (Rank: 15.50) – The Washington offense has had two bad weeks in a row, but Suisham has been solid when he’s gotten his chances. The Skins play a much weaker defense this week in Seattle. The Seahawks have also given up 25 field goals this year, tied for second in the league. Suisham is likely available in your league if you are rotating kickers and need a better option.

Sit: John Kasay, Carolina Panthers (Rank: 14.50) – Kasay has not reached double digits in points for three weeks now. I don’t expect that to change this week against a solid defense in Atlanta that has only allowed 10 field goals all year (second best only to the Titans).

Defense	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB	at DET	20.00	100%	20.00
Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT	CIN	18.50	100%	18.50
Chicago Bears	CHI	at STL	17.50	100%	17.50
Tennessee Titans	TEN	NYJ	17.00	100%	17.00
Philadelphia Eagles	PHI	at BAL	16.00	100%	16.00
Baltimore Ravens	BAL	PHI	16.00	100%	16.00
Washington Redskins	WAS	at SEA	15.50	100%	15.50
Dallas Cowboys	DAL	SF	15.50	100%	15.50
Minnesota Vikings	MIN	at JAX	15.00	100%	15.00
New York Giants	NYG	at ARI	14.50	100%	14.50
New England Patriots	NE	at MIA	14.00	100%	14.00
Denver Broncos	DEN	OAK	14.00	100%	14.00
Carolina Panthers	CAR	at ATL	13.50	100%	13.50
Miami Dolphins	MIA	NE	13.50	100%	13.50
Green Bay Packers	GB	at NO	13.50	100%	13.50
Buffalo Bills	BUF	at KC	13.50	100%	13.50
New York Jets	NYJ	at TEN	13.50	100%	13.50
Indianapolis Colts	IND	at SD	13.50	100%	13.50
Houston Texans	HOU	at CLE	13.00	100%	13.00
Arizona Cardinals	ARI	NYG	13.00	100%	13.00
Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX	MIN	13.00	100%	13.00
Cleveland Browns	CLE	HOU	13.00	100%	13.00
Atlanta Falcons	ATL	CAR	12.50	100%	12.50
Seattle Seahawks	SEA	WAS	11.50	100%	11.50
San Francisco 49ers	SF	at DAL	11.00	100%	11.00
Cincinnati Bengals	CIN	at PIT	11.00	100%	11.00
San Diego Chargers	SD	IND	10.50	100%	10.50
New Orleans Saints	NO	GB	10.50	100%	10.50
St. Louis Rams	STL	CHI	9.50	100%	9.50
Kansas City Chiefs	KC	BUF	9.50	100%	9.50
Oakland Raiders	OAK	at DEN	8.50	100%	8.50
Detroit Lions	DET	TB	6.50	100%	6.50

Start: Dallas Cowboys (Rank: 15.50) – Terrence Newman’s return seems to have helped shore up the Cowboys’ pass defense. Their pass rush looked dominating last week against Washington. The Cowboys should be able to handle the 49ers this week, while recording several sacks and some turnovers as well.

Sit: New England Patriots (Rank: 14.00) – The Patriots have been a top 10 defense this year in terms of scoring, but this week is not one of their more favorable matchups. A game in Dolphin Stadium would not have looked very scary last year, but the Dolphins and their wildcat offense have defensive coordinators losing sleep these days. The Pats gave up 38 points the last time they faced Miami, and while I don’t see that happening again, I don’t think this will be a walk in the park either. Sit the Patriots’ defense if you can find a better option.

 
Many thanks to the people who helped put this together: treat24, madaslives911, utility-hook, WaCougMBS, and Amuk who helped with the rankings! If you would like to help with the rankings you can do so here each week.

 
Nick Hopkins is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Nick in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of terpfan.
 

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