Week 14

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Week 13 was a week of high scores and blowouts. Nine of the sixteen games played last week were decided by thirteen points or more. This lead to some big fantasy days as well. Season surprises like Thomas Jones, Steve Slaton, and Deangelo Williams finished with huge days on the ground, as did proven fantasy stars like Adrian Peterson and Brian Westbrook. Wide receiver Mark Clayton had another big day with 164 yards an a touchdown, his third game with more than 70 yards and a score in his last five outings. Bernard Berrian had a big day as well (122 yards, 1 TD) after doing very little in his past three games. At quarterback, Joe Flacco is starting to prove that he can do more than just manage the Ravens’ offense as a rookie. The big kid from Delaware has now thrown 11 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions since Week 7. Who will be the high scorers this week as the fantasy playoffs begin in some leagues, and are just over the horizon in most others? Read on to find out…

Our rating system is based on two sets of rankings. The first set is a value between 1-20, given based on a player’s Fantasy Value If Playing (FVIP). The second set is that player’s Playing Probability (PP). These two sets are thrown into a giant machine, twisted around a little, mixed up, sorted, resorted, then eventually darts are thrown at the results. If you require any further help, our start/sit forum is top notch. You will find quick replies to your questions there and many eager helpers!

Quarterbacks	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Kurt Warner	ARI	STL	20.00	100%	20.00
Peyton Manning	IND	CIN	19.00	100%	19.00
Drew Brees	NO	ATL	19.00	100%	19.00
Jay Cutler	DEN	KC	18.00	100%	18.00
Matt Ryan	ATL	at NO	17.00	100%	17.00
Brett Favre	NYJ	at SF	16.00	100%	16.00
Tyler Thigpen	KC	at DEN	16.00	100%	16.00
Aaron Rodgers	GB	HOU	16.00	100%	16.00
Eli Manning	NYG	PHI	15.00	100%	15.00
Donovan McNabb	PHI	at NYG	15.00	100%	15.00
Matt Cassel	NE	at SEA	15.00	100%	15.00
Gus Frerotte	MIN	at DET	14.00	100%	14.00
Tony Romo	DAL	at PIT	14.00	100%	14.00
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	DAL	14.00	100%	14.00
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	NE	14.00	100%	14.00
Chad Pennington	MIA	at BUF	14.00	100%	14.00
Philip Rivers	SD	OAK	14.00	100%	14.00
Joe Flacco	BAL	WAS	13.00	100%	13.00
Kyle Orton	CHI	JAX	13.00	100%	13.00
Jake Delhomme	CAR	TB	12.00	100%	12.00
Jeff Garcia	TB	at CAR	12.00	100%	12.00
Kerry Collins	TEN	CLE	12.00	100%	12.00
Shaun Hill	SF	NYJ	12.00	100%	12.00
David Garrard	JAX	at CHI	11.00	100%	11.00
Jason Campbell	WAS	at BAL	10.00	100%	10.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick	CIN	at IND	9.00	100%	9.00
Daunte Culpepper	DET	MIN	9.00	100%	9.00
JaMarcus Russell	OAK	at SD	9.00	100%	9.00
Marc Bulger	STL	at ARI	11.00	60%	6.60
Sage Rosenfels	HOU	at GB	13.00	50%	6.50
Matt Schaub	HOU	at GB	13.00	50%	6.50
Trent Edwards	BUF	MIA	11.00	57%	6.23
Ken Dorsey	CLE	at TEN	6.00	100%	6.00

Start: Tyler Thigpen, Kansas City Chiefs (Rank: 16.00) – Thigpen did not have a great game against the Raiders last week, despite his team picking only their second win of the season. Still, he had thrown 11 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions in the previous five weeks. I’m inclined to say that Thigpen is still a decent start this week against a Bronco defense that is rated 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed. Denver cornerback Champ Bailey may be back in action this week, but he will likely be less than 100% and won’t immediately fix that pass defense either way. Thigpen is a borderline start, but if you don’t have any better options, do not feel bad about having him in your lineup.

Sit: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (Rank: 14.00) – This is a matchup problem for Big Ben more than anything else. The Cowboys have been relentless in rushing the passer, and the Steelers have had trouble all year in pass protection. The Cowboys have also look much improved in the secondary. With Roethlisberger’s penchant for errant passes, and the great likelihood of pressure being applied on him, I think this could be a rough game for him. I imagine this game will be physical and relatively low scoring on both sides of the ball. Just not the best matchup overall for the Pittsburgh passer.

 

Running Backs	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Adrian Peterson	MIN	at DET	20.00	100%	20.00
Thomas Jones	NYJ	at SF	19.00	100%	19.00
Chris Johnson	TEN	CLE	18.00	100%	18.00
Michael Turner	ATL	at NO	18.00	100%	18.00
Matt Forte	CHI	JAX	18.00	100%	18.00
Marshawn Lynch	BUF	MIA	17.00	100%	17.00
Joseph Addai	IND	CIN	17.00	100%	17.00
Brandon Jacobs	NYG	PHI	17.00	100%	17.00
Steve Slaton	HOU	at GB	16.00	100%	16.00
LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	OAK	16.00	100%	16.00
Brian Westbrook	PHI	at NYG	16.00	100%	16.00
Ronnie Brown	MIA	at BUF	15.00	100%	15.00
Frank Gore	SF	NYJ	14.00	100%	14.00
DeAngelo Williams	CAR	TB	14.00	100%	14.00
Larry Johnson	KC	at DEN	14.00	100%	14.00
Steven Jackson	STL	at ARI	15.00	90%	13.50
Marion Barber	DAL	at PIT	13.00	100%	13.00
Warrick Dunn	TB	at CAR	13.00	100%	13.00
LenDale White	TEN	CLE	13.00	100%	13.00
Chester Taylor	MIN	at DET	13.00	100%	13.00
Kevin Smith	DET	MIN	13.00	100%	13.00
Tim Hightower	ARI	STL	13.00	100%	13.00
Kevin Faulk	NE	at SEA	12.00	100%	12.00
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	at CHI	12.00	100%	12.00
Ryan Grant	GB	HOU	14.00	80%	11.20
Peyton Hillis	DEN	KC	14.00	80%	11.20
Justin Fargas	OAK	at SD	11.00	100%	11.00
Sammy Morris	NE	at SEA	11.00	100%	11.00
Reggie Bush	NO	ATL	15.00	70%	10.50
Dominic Rhodes	IND	CIN	10.00	100%	10.00
Ricky Williams	MIA	at BUF	10.00	100%	10.00
Pierre Thomas	NO	ATL	10.00	100%	10.00
Derrick Ward	NYG	PHI	10.00	100%	10.00
Jamal Lewis	CLE	at TEN	10.00	100%	10.00
Mewelde Moore	PIT	DAL	10.00	100%	10.00
Darren McFadden	OAK	at SD	10.00	100%	10.00
Leon Washington	NYJ	at SF	10.00	100%	10.00
LeRon McClain	BAL	WAS	10.00	100%	10.00
Willie Parker	PIT	DAL	13.00	70%	9.10
Jonathan Stewart	CAR	TB	9.00	100%	9.00
Brandon Jackson	GB	HOU	9.00	100%	9.00
Jerious Norwood	ATL	at NO	9.00	100%	9.00
Willis McGahee	BAL	WAS	12.00	70%	8.40
Cedric Benson	CIN	at IND	8.00	100%	8.00
Benjarvis Green-Ellis	NE	at SEA	8.00	100%	8.00
JJ Arrington	ARI	STL	8.00	100%	8.00
Julius Jones	SEA	NE	8.00	100%	8.00
Ray Rice	BAL	WAS	8.00	100%	8.00
Correll Buckhalter	PHI	at NYG	8.00	100%	8.00
Fred Taylor	JAX	at CHI	8.00	100%	8.00
Clinton Portis	WAS	at BAL	12.00	60%	7.20
Ladell Betts	WAS	at BAL	7.00	100%	7.00
Antonio Pittman	STL	at ARI	7.00	100%	7.00
Jamaal Charles	KC	at DEN	7.00	100%	7.00
Ahman Green	HOU	at GB	6.00	100%	6.00
Fred Jackson	BUF	MIA	5.00	100%	5.00
Michael Bush	OAK	at SD	5.00	100%	5.00
Edgerrin James	ARI	STL	5.00	100%	5.00
Darren Sproles	SD	OAK	4.00	100%	4.00
Deuce McAllister	NO	ATL	4.00	100%	4.00
Ken Darby	STL	at ARI	2.00	100%	2.00

Start: Warrick Dunn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Rank: 13.00) – Warrick Dunn is flying a little under the radar these days, but the old man has compiled over 300 total yards in the three games since Earnest Graham’s injury. He should be in line for another good game against the Carolina Panthers’ 18th ranked rushing defense.

Sit: Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins (Rank: 12.00) – Portis has been battered and bruised over the past several weeks. He’s been listed as questionable every week for what seems like forever, but always manages to gut it out and play. But all the injuries have to be taking a toll on the Redskins’ workhorse. Even if Portis is able to play this week, what is his reward? A matchup against one of the league’s best run defense: The Baltimore Ravens.
 

Wide Receivers	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Anquan Boldin	ARI	STL	19.00	100%	19.00
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	STL	19.00	100%	19.00
Andre Johnson	HOU	at GB	18.00	100%	18.00
Roddy White	ATL	at NO	18.00	100%	18.00
Reggie Wayne	IND	CIN	17.00	100%	17.00
Greg Jennings	GB	HOU	17.00	100%	17.00
Brandon Marshall	DEN	KC	17.00	100%	17.00
Terrell Owens	DAL	at PIT	16.00	100%	16.00
Bernard Berrian	MIN	at DET	16.00	100%	16.00
Randy Moss	NE	at SEA	16.00	100%	16.00
Marques Colston	NO	at SEA	16.00	100%	16.00
Steve Smith	CAR	TB	15.00	100%	15.00
Eddie Royal	DEN	KC	15.00	100%	15.00
Hines Ward	PIT	DAL	15.00	100%	15.00
Lee Evans	BUF	MIA	15.00	100%	15.00
Lance Moore	NO	ATL	14.00	100%	14.00
Derrick Mason	BAL	WAS	14.00	100%	14.00
Amani Toomer	NYG	PHI	14.00	100%	14.00
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	at SF	14.00	100%	14.00
Dwayne Bowe	KC	at DEN	14.00	100%	14.00
Dominick Hixon	NYG	PHI	13.00	100%	13.00
Michael Clayton	BAL	WAS	13.00	100%	13.00
Calvin Johnson	DET	MIN	13.00	100%	13.00
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	at SF	13.00	100%	13.00
Donald Driver	GB	HOU	13.00	100%	13.00
Anthony Gonzalez	IND	CIN	13.00	100%	13.00
Steve Breaston	ARI	STL	13.00	100%	13.00
Vincent Jackson	SD	OAK	12.00	100%	12.00
DeSean Jackson	PHI	at NYG	12.00	100%	12.00
Bobby Engram	SEA	NE	12.00	100%	12.00
Donnie Avery	STL	at ARI	12.00	100%	12.00
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	at IND	14.00	80%	11.20
Wes Welker	NE	at SEA	14.00	80%	11.20
Braylon Edwards	CLE	at TEN	11.00	100%	11.00
Santana Moss	WAS	at BAL	11.00	100%	11.00
Marvin Harrison	IND	CIN	11.00	100%	11.00
Sidney Rice	MIN	at DET	11.00	100%	11.00
Antonio Bryant	TB	at CAR	11.00	100%	11.00
Kevin Walter	HOU	at GB	11.00	100%	11.00
Ted Ginn Jr.	MIA	at BUF	11.00	100%	11.00
Isaac Bruce	SF	NYJ	11.00	100%	11.00
Santonio Holmes	PIT	DAL	11.00	100%	11.00
Steve Smith	NYG	PHI	11.00	100%	11.00
Harry Douglas	ATL	at NO	11.00	100%	11.00
Mark Bradley	KC	at DEN	13.00	80%	10.40
Chad Ocho Cinco	CIN	at IND	10.00	100%	10.00
Michael Jenkins	ATL	at NO	10.00	100%	10.00
Muhsin Muhammad	CAR	TB	10.00	100%	10.00
Kevin Curtis	PHI	at NYG	10.00	100%	10.00
Chris Chambers	SD	OAK	10.00	100%	10.00
Josh Morgan	SF	NYJ	10.00	100%	10.00
Rashied Davis	CHI	JAX	10.00	100%	10.00
Justin Gage	TEN	CLE	9.00	100%	9.00
Brandon Jones	TEN	CLE	9.00	100%	9.00
Joey Galloway	TB	at CAR	9.00	100%	9.00
Torry Holt	STL	at ARI	9.00	100%	9.00
Devin Hester	CHI	JAX	9.00	100%	9.00
Marty Booker	CHI	JAX	9.00	100%	9.00
Koren Robinson	SEA	NE	9.00	100%	9.00
Matt Jones	JAX	at CHI	11.00	80%	8.80
Roy Williams	DAL	at PIT	8.00	100%	8.00
Bobby Wade	MIN	at DET	8.00	100%	8.00
Bryant Johnson	SF	NYJ	8.00	100%	8.00
Hank Baskett	PHI	at NYG	8.00	100%	8.00
Reggie Williams	JAX	at CHI	8.00	100%	8.00
Devery Henderson	NO	ATL	8.00	100%	8.00
Reggie Brown	PHI	at NYG	8.00	100%	8.00
Antwaan Randle El	WAS	at BAL	7.00	100%	7.00
Nate Washington	PIT	DAL	7.00	100%	7.00
James Hardy	BUF	MIA	7.00	100%	7.00
Patrick Crayton	DAL	at PIT	7.00	100%	7.00
Arnaz Battle	SF	NYJ	7.00	100%	7.00
Brandon Stokley	DEN	KC	7.00	100%	7.00
Jerry Porter	JAX	at CHI	5.00	100%	5.00
Plaxico Burress	NYG	PHI	0.00	0%	0.00

Start: Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints (Rank: 14.00) – I may be a little late jumping onto this bandwagon, but Moore has now caught a touchdown pass in five straight games. It’s hard to overlook that kind of production. There’s no reason to believe he can’t continue that streak in Week 14, as the Saints play the league’s 22nd rated pass defense – the Atlanta Falcons.

Sit: Chad Ocho Cinco, Cincinnati Bengals (Rank: 10.00) – The wide receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson has not recorded more than 57 yards in a single game this year. Hard to believe, but true. There is no reason to think that his first big game will come against the Colts 5th ranked passing defense either. Not only do the Colts allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game, but they have only given up four passing touchdowns all season.

Tight Ends	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Tony Gonzalez	KC	at DEN	19.00	100%	19.00
Jason Witten	DAL	at PIT	18.00	100%	18.00
Dallas Clark	IND	CIN	17.00	100%	17.00
Dustin Keller	NYJ	at SF	17.00	100%	17.00
Antonio Gates	SD	OAK	17.00	100%	17.00
Zach Miller	OAK	at SD	15.00	100%	15.00
John Carlson	SEA	NE	13.00	100%	13.00
Kevin Boss	NYG	PHI	13.00	100%	13.00
Visanthe Shiancoe	MIN	at DET	13.00	100%	13.00
Heath Miller	PIT	DAL	13.00	100%	13.00
Tony Scheffler	DEN	KC	13.00	100%	13.00
Chris Cooley	WAS	at BAL	12.00	100%	12.00
Greg Olsen	CHI	JAX	12.00	100%	12.00
Jeremy Shockey	NO	ATL	12.00	100%	12.00
Owen Daniels	HOU	at GB	12.00	100%	12.00
Bo Scaife	TEN	CLE	12.00	100%	12.00
Donald Lee	GB	HOU	11.00	100%	11.00
Anthony Fasano	MIA	at BUF	10.00	100%	10.00
Todd Heap	BAL	WAS	9.00	100%	9.00
Vernon Davis	SF	NYJ	9.00	100%	9.00
Ben Watson	NE	at SEA	9.00	100%	9.00
Billy Miller	NO	ATL	8.00	100%	8.00
Robert Royal	BUF	MIA	8.00	100%	8.00
Desmond Clark	CHI	JAX	8.00	100%	8.00
L.J. Smith	PHI	at NYG	8.00	100%	8.00
Marcedes Lewis	JAX	at CHI	7.00	100%	7.00
Alge Crumpler	TEN	CLE	6.00	100%	6.00
Dante Rosario	CAR	TB	6.00	100%	6.00
Brent Celek	PHI	at NYG	5.00	100%	5.00
Alex Smith	TB	at CAR	5.00	100%	5.00
Kellen Winslow	CLE	at TEN	8.00	0%	0.00

Start: John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks (Rank: 13.00) – Most people know about the fantastic season Jets’ rookie tight end Dustin Keller is having by now, but often overlooked is another good rookie tight end, the Seahawk’s John Carlson. Carlson has been contributing for Seattle all year, but really broke out against the Cowboys last week with over 100 yards. Look for Carlson to be a reliable fantasy starter down the stretch.

Sit: Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titans (Rank: 12.00) – Unless he a particularly good matchup, Scaife is a guy that’s going to give you a few catches and 20-40 yards. He at least does this fairly reliably, but there many better options this week.

Kickers	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Neil Rackers	ARI	STL	18.00	100%	18.00
Jason Elam	ATL	at NO	18.00	100%	18.00
Ryan Longwell	MIN	at DET	17.00	100%	17.00
Mason Crosby	GB	HOU	17.00	100%	17.00
Rob Bironas	TEN	CLE	16.00	100%	16.00
Matt Bryant	TB	at CAR	16.00	100%	16.00
Nick Folk	DAL	at PIT	16.00	100%	16.00
Robbie Gould	CHI	JAX	16.00	100%	16.00
Garrett Hartley	NO	ATL	16.00	100%	16.00
Matt Stover	BAL	WAS	16.00	100%	16.00
Rian Lindell	BUF	MIA	16.00	100%	16.00
Adam Vinatieri	IND	CIN	15.00	100%	15.00
Stephen Gostkowski	NE	at SEA	15.00	100%	15.00
Jeff Reed	PIT	DAL	15.00	100%	15.00
David Akers	PHI	at NYG	15.00	100%	15.00
Kris Brown	HOU	at GB	15.00	100%	15.00
Matt Prater	DEN	KC	14.00	100%	14.00
Nate Kaeding	SD	OAK	14.00	100%	14.00
Dan Carpenter	MIA	at BUF	14.00	100%	14.00
John Kasay	CAR	TB	14.00	100%	14.00
John Carney	NYG	PHI	17.00	80%	13.60
Josh Scobee	JAX	at CHI	13.00	100%	13.00
Shaun Suisham	WAS	at BAL	13.00	100%	13.00
Phil Dawson	CLE	at TEN	12.00	100%	12.00
Connor Barth	KC	at DEN	12.00	100%	12.00
Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	at SD	11.00	100%	11.00
Joe Nedney	SF	NYJ	11.00	100%	11.00
Olindo Mare	SEA	NE	10.00	100%	10.00
Josh Brown	STL	at ARI	9.00	100%	9.00
Jason Hanson	DET	MIN	8.00	100%	8.00
Shayne Graham	CIN	at IND	8.00	100%	8.00

Start: Matt Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Rank: 16.00) – Matt Bryant may not be a “big name” kicker, but he has been one of the best in the NFL this year. The Bucs have attempted a league high 32 field goals this season, and Bryant has connected on 28 of them, good for an 87.5% accuracy rating. That’s about as good as it gets in the world of fantasy kickers. This guy is an every week starter.

Sit: Nate Keading, San Diego Chargers (Rank: 14.00) – Kaeding has not gone over 8 points for four straight games now, as the Chargers have dropped 3 of their last 4. A home matchup against the Oakland Raiders might not look bad, but the Raiders are tied for the 6th fewest field goals allowed in the NFL. You can probably do better than Kaeding this week.

Defense	Team	Opp.	FVIH	PP	Value
Tennessee Titans	TEN	CLE	20.00	100%	20.00
Baltimore Ravens	BAL	WAS	17.00	100%	17.00
Indianapolis Colts	IND	CIN	17.00	100%	17.00
Minnesota Vikings	MIN	at DET	17.00	100%	17.00
Chicago Bears	CHI	JAX	15.00	100%	15.00
New York Giants	NYG	PHI	15.00	100%	15.00
New York Jets	NYJ	at SF	15.00	100%	15.00
Arizona Cardinals	ARI	STL	14.00	100%	14.00
Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT	DAL	14.00	100%	14.00
Green Bay Packers	GB	HOU	13.00	100%	13.00
New England Patriots	NE	at SEA	13.00	100%	13.00
San Diego Chargers	SD	OAK	13.00	100%	13.00
Philadelphia Eagles	PHI	at NYG	13.00	100%	13.00
Miami Dolphins	MIA	at BUF	12.00	100%	12.00
Dallas Cowboys	DAL	at PIT	12.00	100%	12.00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB	at CAR	12.00	100%	12.00
Atlanta Falcons	ATL	at NO	11.00	100%	11.00
Buffalo Bills	BUF	MIA	11.00	100%	11.00
Carolina Panthers	CAR	TB	11.00	100%	11.00
Washington Redskins	WAS	at BAL	11.00	100%	11.00
Denver Broncos	DEN	KC	10.00	100%	10.00
Houston Texans	HOU	at GB	10.00	100%	10.00
Seattle Seahawks	SEA	NE	10.00	100%	10.00
Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX	at CHI	9.00	100%	9.00
New Orleans Saints	NO	ATL	9.00	100%	9.00
St. Louis Rams	STL	at ARI	8.00	100%	8.00
Kansas City Chiefs	KC	at DEN	8.00	100%	8.00
Oakland Raiders	OAK	at SD	7.00	100%	7.00
Cleveland Browns	CLE	at TEN	6.00	100%	6.00
San Francisco 49ers	SF	NYJ	6.00	100%	6.00
Cincinnati Bengals	CIN	at IND	6.00	100%	6.00
Detroit Lions	DET	MIN	5.00	100%	5.00

Start: Chicago Bears (Rank: 15.00) – The Bears might not be the shutdown defense they have been in the past, but they are second in the NFL in interceptions, and 14th in sacks. Their opponents this week, the Jacksonville Jaguars, have given up the 7th most sacks in the NFL. The Jags have particularly struggled lately as well, managing only 14, 12, and 17 points in their last three games.

Sit: Washington Redskins (Rank: 11.00) – Not only are the Redskins not known as a team that is going to create a lot of turnovers, but the team they face this week, the Ravens, has only turned the ball over 16 times on the year. I think Washington’s defense should be able to keep them in the game, but I do not expect them to do anything noteworthy enough to make the unit a viable fantasy start.

 

Many thanks to the people who helped put this together: treat24, WaCougMBS, and Dan Lambskin who helped with the rankings! If you would like to help with the rankings you can do so here each week.

 

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