Start & SitDecember 3, 2008

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Week 14

By Nick Hopkins

Week 13 was a week of high scores and blowouts. Nine of the sixteen games played last week were decided by thirteen points or more. This lead to some big fantasy days as well. Season surprises like Thomas Jones, Steve Slaton, and Deangelo Williams finished with huge days on the ground, as did proven fantasy stars like Adrian Peterson and Brian Westbrook. Wide receiver Mark Clayton had another big day with 164 yards an a touchdown, his third game with more than 70 yards and a score in his last five outings. Bernard Berrian had a big day as well (122 yards, 1 TD) after doing very little in his past three games. At quarterback, Joe Flacco is starting to prove that he can do more than just manage the Ravens’ offense as a rookie. The big kid from Delaware has now thrown 11 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions since Week 7. Who will be the high scorers this week as the fantasy playoffs begin in some leagues, and are just over the horizon in most others? Read on to find out…

Our rating system is based on two sets of rankings. The first set is a value between 1-20, given based on a player’s Fantasy Value If Playing (FVIP). The second set is that player’s Playing Probability (PP). These two sets are thrown into a giant machine, twisted around a little, mixed up, sorted, resorted, then eventually darts are thrown at the results. If you require any further help, our start/sit forum is top notch. You will find quick replies to your questions there and many eager helpers!

Kurt WarnerARISTL20.00100%20.00
Peyton ManningINDCIN19.00100%19.00
Drew BreesNOATL19.00100%19.00
Jay CutlerDENKC18.00100%18.00
Matt RyanATLat NO17.00100%17.00
Brett FavreNYJat SF16.00100%16.00
Tyler ThigpenKCat DEN16.00100%16.00
Aaron RodgersGBHOU16.00100%16.00
Eli ManningNYGPHI15.00100%15.00
Donovan McNabbPHIat NYG15.00100%15.00
Matt CasselNEat SEA15.00100%15.00
Gus FrerotteMINat DET14.00100%14.00
Tony RomoDALat PIT14.00100%14.00
Ben RoethlisbergerPITDAL14.00100%14.00
Matt HasselbeckSEANE14.00100%14.00
Chad PenningtonMIAat BUF14.00100%14.00
Philip RiversSDOAK14.00100%14.00
Joe FlaccoBALWAS13.00100%13.00
Kyle OrtonCHIJAX13.00100%13.00
Jake DelhommeCARTB12.00100%12.00
Jeff GarciaTBat CAR12.00100%12.00
Kerry CollinsTENCLE12.00100%12.00
Shaun HillSFNYJ12.00100%12.00
David GarrardJAXat CHI11.00100%11.00
Jason CampbellWASat BAL10.00100%10.00
Ryan FitzpatrickCINat IND9.00100%9.00
Daunte CulpepperDETMIN9.00100%9.00
JaMarcus RussellOAKat SD9.00100%9.00
Marc BulgerSTLat ARI11.00
Alert! 60%
Sage RosenfelsHOUat GB13.00
Alert! 50%
Matt SchaubHOUat GB13.00
Alert! 50%
Trent EdwardsBUFMIA11.00
Alert! 57%
Ken DorseyCLEat TEN6.00100%6.00

Start: Tyler Thigpen, Kansas City Chiefs (Rank: 16.00) – Thigpen did not have a great game against the Raiders last week, despite his team picking only their second win of the season. Still, he had thrown 11 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions in the previous five weeks. I’m inclined to say that Thigpen is still a decent start this week against a Bronco defense that is rated 27th in the NFL in passing yards allowed. Denver cornerback Champ Bailey may be back in action this week, but he will likely be less than 100% and won’t immediately fix that pass defense either way. Thigpen is a borderline start, but if you don’t have any better options, do not feel bad about having him in your lineup.

Sit: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (Rank: 14.00) – This is a matchup problem for Big Ben more than anything else. The Cowboys have been relentless in rushing the passer, and the Steelers have had trouble all year in pass protection. The Cowboys have also look much improved in the secondary. With Roethlisberger’s penchant for errant passes, and the great likelihood of pressure being applied on him, I think this could be a rough game for him. I imagine this game will be physical and relatively low scoring on both sides of the ball. Just not the best matchup overall for the Pittsburgh passer.


Running BacksTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Adrian PetersonMINat DET20.00100%20.00
Thomas JonesNYJat SF19.00100%19.00
Chris JohnsonTENCLE18.00100%18.00
Michael TurnerATLat NO18.00100%18.00
Matt ForteCHIJAX18.00100%18.00
Marshawn LynchBUFMIA17.00100%17.00
Joseph AddaiINDCIN17.00100%17.00
Brandon JacobsNYGPHI17.00100%17.00
Steve SlatonHOUat GB16.00100%16.00
LaDainian TomlinsonSDOAK16.00100%16.00
Brian WestbrookPHIat NYG16.00100%16.00
Ronnie BrownMIAat BUF15.00100%15.00
Frank GoreSFNYJ14.00100%14.00
DeAngelo WilliamsCARTB14.00100%14.00
Larry JohnsonKCat DEN14.00100%14.00
Steven JacksonSTLat ARI15.0090%13.50
Marion BarberDALat PIT13.00100%13.00
Warrick DunnTBat CAR13.00100%13.00
LenDale WhiteTENCLE13.00100%13.00
Chester TaylorMINat DET13.00100%13.00
Kevin SmithDETMIN13.00100%13.00
Tim HightowerARISTL13.00100%13.00
Kevin FaulkNEat SEA12.00100%12.00
Maurice Jones-DrewJAXat CHI12.00100%12.00
Ryan GrantGBHOU14.00
Alert! 80%
Peyton HillisDENKC14.00
Alert! 80%
Justin FargasOAKat SD11.00100%11.00
Sammy MorrisNEat SEA11.00100%11.00
Reggie BushNOATL15.00
Alert! 70%
Dominic RhodesINDCIN10.00100%10.00
Ricky WilliamsMIAat BUF10.00100%10.00
Pierre ThomasNOATL10.00100%10.00
Derrick WardNYGPHI10.00100%10.00
Jamal LewisCLEat TEN10.00100%10.00
Mewelde MoorePITDAL10.00100%10.00
Darren McFaddenOAKat SD10.00100%10.00
Leon WashingtonNYJat SF10.00100%10.00
LeRon McClainBALWAS10.00100%10.00
Willie ParkerPITDAL13.00
Alert! 70%
Jonathan StewartCARTB9.00100%9.00
Brandon JacksonGBHOU9.00100%9.00
Jerious NorwoodATLat NO9.00100%9.00
Willis McGaheeBALWAS12.00
Alert! 70%
Cedric BensonCINat IND8.00100%8.00
Benjarvis Green-EllisNEat SEA8.00100%8.00
JJ ArringtonARISTL8.00100%8.00
Julius JonesSEANE8.00100%8.00
Ray RiceBALWAS8.00100%8.00
Correll BuckhalterPHIat NYG8.00100%8.00
Fred TaylorJAXat CHI8.00100%8.00
Clinton PortisWASat BAL12.00
Alert! 60%
Ladell BettsWASat BAL7.00100%7.00
Antonio PittmanSTLat ARI7.00100%7.00
Jamaal CharlesKCat DEN7.00100%7.00
Ahman GreenHOUat GB6.00100%6.00
Fred JacksonBUFMIA5.00100%5.00
Michael BushOAKat SD5.00100%5.00
Edgerrin JamesARISTL5.00100%5.00
Darren SprolesSDOAK4.00100%4.00
Deuce McAllisterNOATL4.00100%4.00
Ken DarbySTLat ARI2.00100%2.00

Start: Warrick Dunn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Rank: 13.00) – Warrick Dunn is flying a little under the radar these days, but the old man has compiled over 300 total yards in the three games since Earnest Graham’s injury. He should be in line for another good game against the Carolina Panthers’ 18th ranked rushing defense.

Sit: Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins (Rank: 12.00) – Portis has been battered and bruised over the past several weeks. He’s been listed as questionable every week for what seems like forever, but always manages to gut it out and play. But all the injuries have to be taking a toll on the Redskins’ workhorse. Even if Portis is able to play this week, what is his reward? A matchup against one of the league’s best run defense: The Baltimore Ravens.

Wide ReceiversTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Anquan BoldinARISTL19.00100%19.00
Larry FitzgeraldARISTL19.00100%19.00
Andre JohnsonHOUat GB18.00100%18.00
Roddy WhiteATLat NO18.00100%18.00
Reggie WayneINDCIN17.00100%17.00
Greg JenningsGBHOU17.00100%17.00
Brandon MarshallDENKC17.00100%17.00
Terrell OwensDALat PIT16.00100%16.00
Bernard BerrianMINat DET16.00100%16.00
Randy MossNEat SEA16.00100%16.00
Marques ColstonNOat SEA16.00100%16.00
Steve SmithCARTB15.00100%15.00
Eddie RoyalDENKC15.00100%15.00
Hines WardPITDAL15.00100%15.00
Lee EvansBUFMIA15.00100%15.00
Lance MooreNOATL14.00100%14.00
Derrick MasonBALWAS14.00100%14.00
Amani ToomerNYGPHI14.00100%14.00
Laveranues ColesNYJat SF14.00100%14.00
Dwayne BoweKCat DEN14.00100%14.00
Dominick HixonNYGPHI13.00100%13.00
Michael ClaytonBALWAS13.00100%13.00
Calvin JohnsonDETMIN13.00100%13.00
Jerricho CotcheryNYJat SF13.00100%13.00
Donald DriverGBHOU13.00100%13.00
Anthony GonzalezINDCIN13.00100%13.00
Steve BreastonARISTL13.00100%13.00
Vincent JacksonSDOAK12.00100%12.00
DeSean JacksonPHIat NYG12.00100%12.00
Bobby EngramSEANE12.00100%12.00
Donnie AverySTLat ARI12.00100%12.00
T.J. HoushmandzadehCINat IND14.00
Alert! 80%
Wes WelkerNEat SEA14.00
Alert! 80%
Braylon EdwardsCLEat TEN11.00100%11.00
Santana MossWASat BAL11.00100%11.00
Marvin HarrisonINDCIN11.00100%11.00
Sidney RiceMINat DET11.00100%11.00
Antonio BryantTBat CAR11.00100%11.00
Kevin WalterHOUat GB11.00100%11.00
Ted Ginn Jr.MIAat BUF11.00100%11.00
Isaac BruceSFNYJ11.00100%11.00
Santonio HolmesPITDAL11.00100%11.00
Steve SmithNYGPHI11.00100%11.00
Harry DouglasATLat NO11.00100%11.00
Mark BradleyKCat DEN13.00
Alert! 80%
Chad Ocho CincoCINat IND10.00100%10.00
Michael JenkinsATLat NO10.00100%10.00
Muhsin MuhammadCARTB10.00100%10.00
Kevin CurtisPHIat NYG10.00100%10.00
Chris ChambersSDOAK10.00100%10.00
Josh MorganSFNYJ10.00100%10.00
Rashied DavisCHIJAX10.00100%10.00
Justin GageTENCLE9.00100%9.00
Brandon JonesTENCLE9.00100%9.00
Joey GallowayTBat CAR9.00100%9.00
Torry HoltSTLat ARI9.00100%9.00
Devin HesterCHIJAX9.00100%9.00
Marty BookerCHIJAX9.00100%9.00
Koren RobinsonSEANE9.00100%9.00
Matt JonesJAXat CHI11.00
Alert! 80%
Roy WilliamsDALat PIT8.00100%8.00
Bobby WadeMINat DET8.00100%8.00
Bryant JohnsonSFNYJ8.00100%8.00
Hank BaskettPHIat NYG8.00100%8.00
Reggie WilliamsJAXat CHI8.00100%8.00
Devery HendersonNOATL8.00100%8.00
Reggie BrownPHIat NYG8.00100%8.00
Antwaan Randle ElWASat BAL7.00100%7.00
Nate WashingtonPITDAL7.00100%7.00
James HardyBUFMIA7.00100%7.00
Patrick CraytonDALat PIT7.00100%7.00
Arnaz BattleSFNYJ7.00100%7.00
Brandon StokleyDENKC7.00100%7.00
Jerry PorterJAXat CHI5.00100%5.00
Plaxico BurressNYGPHI0.00
Alert! 0%

Start: Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints (Rank: 14.00) – I may be a little late jumping onto this bandwagon, but Moore has now caught a touchdown pass in five straight games. It’s hard to overlook that kind of production. There’s no reason to believe he can’t continue that streak in Week 14, as the Saints play the league’s 22nd rated pass defense – the Atlanta Falcons.

Sit: Chad Ocho Cinco, Cincinnati Bengals (Rank: 10.00) – The wide receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson has not recorded more than 57 yards in a single game this year. Hard to believe, but true. There is no reason to think that his first big game will come against the Colts 5th ranked passing defense either. Not only do the Colts allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game, but they have only given up four passing touchdowns all season.

Tight EndsTeamOpp.FVIHPPValue
Tony GonzalezKCat DEN19.00100%19.00
Jason WittenDALat PIT18.00100%18.00
Dallas ClarkINDCIN17.00100%17.00
Dustin KellerNYJat SF17.00100%17.00
Antonio GatesSDOAK17.00100%17.00
Zach MillerOAKat SD15.00100%15.00
John CarlsonSEANE13.00100%13.00
Kevin BossNYGPHI13.00100%13.00
Visanthe ShiancoeMINat DET13.00100%13.00
Heath MillerPITDAL13.00100%13.00
Tony SchefflerDENKC13.00100%13.00
Chris CooleyWASat BAL12.00100%12.00
Greg OlsenCHIJAX12.00100%12.00
Jeremy ShockeyNOATL12.00100%12.00
Owen DanielsHOUat GB12.00100%12.00
Bo ScaifeTENCLE12.00100%12.00
Donald LeeGBHOU11.00100%11.00
Anthony FasanoMIAat BUF10.00100%10.00
Todd HeapBALWAS9.00100%9.00
Vernon DavisSFNYJ9.00100%9.00
Ben WatsonNEat SEA9.00100%9.00
Billy MillerNOATL8.00100%8.00
Robert RoyalBUFMIA8.00100%8.00
Desmond ClarkCHIJAX8.00100%8.00
L.J. SmithPHIat NYG8.00100%8.00
Marcedes LewisJAXat CHI7.00100%7.00
Alge CrumplerTENCLE6.00100%6.00
Dante RosarioCARTB6.00100%6.00
Brent CelekPHIat NYG5.00100%5.00
Alex SmithTBat CAR5.00100%5.00
Kellen WinslowCLEat TEN8.00
Alert! 0%

Start: John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks (Rank: 13.00) – Most people know about the fantastic season Jets’ rookie tight end Dustin Keller is having by now, but often overlooked is another good rookie tight end, the Seahawk’s John Carlson. Carlson has been contributing for Seattle all year, but really broke out against the Cowboys last week with over 100 yards. Look for Carlson to be a reliable fantasy starter down the stretch.

Sit: Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titans (Rank: 12.00) – Unless he a particularly good matchup, Scaife is a guy that’s going to give you a few catches and 20-40 yards. He at least does this fairly reliably, but there many better options this week.

Neil RackersARISTL18.00100%18.00
Jason ElamATLat NO18.00100%18.00
Ryan LongwellMINat DET17.00100%17.00
Mason CrosbyGBHOU17.00100%17.00
Rob BironasTENCLE16.00100%16.00
Matt BryantTBat CAR16.00100%16.00
Nick FolkDALat PIT16.00100%16.00
Robbie GouldCHIJAX16.00100%16.00
Garrett HartleyNOATL16.00100%16.00
Matt StoverBALWAS16.00100%16.00
Rian LindellBUFMIA16.00100%16.00
Adam VinatieriINDCIN15.00100%15.00
Stephen GostkowskiNEat SEA15.00100%15.00
Jeff ReedPITDAL15.00100%15.00
David AkersPHIat NYG15.00100%15.00
Kris BrownHOUat GB15.00100%15.00
Matt PraterDENKC14.00100%14.00
Nate KaedingSDOAK14.00100%14.00
Dan CarpenterMIAat BUF14.00100%14.00
John KasayCARTB14.00100%14.00
John CarneyNYGPHI17.00
Alert! 80%
Josh ScobeeJAXat CHI13.00100%13.00
Shaun SuishamWASat BAL13.00100%13.00
Phil DawsonCLEat TEN12.00100%12.00
Connor BarthKCat DEN12.00100%12.00
Sebastian JanikowskiOAKat SD11.00100%11.00
Joe NedneySFNYJ11.00100%11.00
Olindo MareSEANE10.00100%10.00
Josh BrownSTLat ARI9.00100%9.00
Jason HansonDETMIN8.00100%8.00
Shayne GrahamCINat IND8.00100%8.00

Start: Matt Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Rank: 16.00) – Matt Bryant may not be a “big name” kicker, but he has been one of the best in the NFL this year. The Bucs have attempted a league high 32 field goals this season, and Bryant has connected on 28 of them, good for an 87.5% accuracy rating. That’s about as good as it gets in the world of fantasy kickers. This guy is an every week starter.

Sit: Nate Keading, San Diego Chargers (Rank: 14.00) – Kaeding has not gone over 8 points for four straight games now, as the Chargers have dropped 3 of their last 4. A home matchup against the Oakland Raiders might not look bad, but the Raiders are tied for the 6th fewest field goals allowed in the NFL. You can probably do better than Kaeding this week.

Tennessee TitansTENCLE20.00100%20.00
Baltimore RavensBALWAS17.00100%17.00
Indianapolis ColtsINDCIN17.00100%17.00
Minnesota VikingsMINat DET17.00100%17.00
Chicago BearsCHIJAX15.00100%15.00
New York GiantsNYGPHI15.00100%15.00
New York JetsNYJat SF15.00100%15.00
Arizona CardinalsARISTL14.00100%14.00
Pittsburgh SteelersPITDAL14.00100%14.00
Green Bay PackersGBHOU13.00100%13.00
New England PatriotsNEat SEA13.00100%13.00
San Diego ChargersSDOAK13.00100%13.00
Philadelphia EaglesPHIat NYG13.00100%13.00
Miami DolphinsMIAat BUF12.00100%12.00
Dallas CowboysDALat PIT12.00100%12.00
Tampa Bay BuccaneersTBat CAR12.00100%12.00
Atlanta FalconsATLat NO11.00100%11.00
Buffalo BillsBUFMIA11.00100%11.00
Carolina PanthersCARTB11.00100%11.00
Washington RedskinsWASat BAL11.00100%11.00
Denver BroncosDENKC10.00100%10.00
Houston TexansHOUat GB10.00100%10.00
Seattle SeahawksSEANE10.00100%10.00
Jacksonville JaguarsJAXat CHI9.00100%9.00
New Orleans SaintsNOATL9.00100%9.00
St. Louis RamsSTLat ARI8.00100%8.00
Kansas City ChiefsKCat DEN8.00100%8.00
Oakland RaidersOAKat SD7.00100%7.00
Cleveland BrownsCLEat TEN6.00100%6.00
San Francisco 49ersSFNYJ6.00100%6.00
Cincinnati BengalsCINat IND6.00100%6.00
Detroit LionsDETMIN5.00100%5.00

Start: Chicago Bears (Rank: 15.00) – The Bears might not be the shutdown defense they have been in the past, but they are second in the NFL in interceptions, and 14th in sacks. Their opponents this week, the Jacksonville Jaguars, have given up the 7th most sacks in the NFL. The Jags have particularly struggled lately as well, managing only 14, 12, and 17 points in their last three games.

Sit: Washington Redskins (Rank: 11.00) – Not only are the Redskins not known as a team that is going to create a lot of turnovers, but the team they face this week, the Ravens, has only turned the ball over 16 times on the year. I think Washington’s defense should be able to keep them in the game, but I do not expect them to do anything noteworthy enough to make the unit a viable fantasy start.


Many thanks to the people who helped put this together: treat24, WaCougMBS, and Dan Lambskin who helped with the rankings! If you would like to help with the rankings you can do so here each week.

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