Week 4

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Welcome, fantasy fanatics, to the Week 4 Edition of the Cafe’s Start and Sit. There were some big stories in the NFL last week, including the Dolphins’ unexpected domination of the New England Patriots (and Ronnie Brown’s game for the ages), the Colts faltering at home against Jacksonville, and the Chargers and Jets putting up another huge point total on Monday Night Football. It is also starting to become clear which teams you want to avoid for fantasy purposes (namely Kansas City, St. Louis, Cleveland, and maybe even Cincinnati for now). As for this coming week, don’t forget, a handful of teams will have off this week (Giants, Dolphins, Seahawks, Patriots, Lions, and Colts). But that’s enough rambling from me… Let’s move on to the rankings!

Our rating system is based on two sets of rankings. The first set is a value between 1-20, given based on a player’s Fantasy Value If Playing (FVIP). The second set is that player’s Playing Probability (PP). These two sets are thrown into a giant machine, twisted around a little, mixed up, sorted, resorted, then eventually darts are thrown at the results. If you require any further help, our start/sit forum is top notch. You will find quick replies to your questions there and many eager helpers!

Rank	Quarterbacks	Team	Opp.	FVIP	PP	Value
1	Jay Cutler	DEN	at KC	20.00	100%	20.00
2	Drew Brees	NO	SF	18.75	100%	18.75
3	Tony Romo	DAL	WAS	18.50	100%	18.50
4	Kurt Warner	ARI	at NYJ	16.50	100%	16.50
5	Philip Rivers	SD	at OAK	16.50	100%	16.50
6	Carson Palmer	CIN	CLE	16.25	100%	16.25
7	Donovan McNabb	PHI	at CHI	15.75	100%	15.75
8	Aaron Rodgers	GB	at TB	15.75	100%	15.75
9	J.T. O’Sullivan	SF	at NO	14.25	100%	14.25
10	Jake Delhomme	CAR	ATL	14.00	100%	14.00
11	Brett Favre	NYJ	ARI	14.00	100%	14.00
12	Trent Edwards	BUF	at STL	13.75	100%	13.75
13	Jason Campbell	WAS	at DAL	12.75	100%	12.75
14	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	BAL	12.75	92%	11.69
15	David Garrard	JAX	HOU	11.25	100%	11.25
16	Matt Schaub	HOU	at JAX	9.75	100%	9.75
17	Matt Ryan	ATL	at CAR	9.50	100%	9.50
18	Derek Anderson	CLE	at CIN	10.75	88%	9.50
19	Joe Flacco	BAL	at PIT	7.75	100%	7.75
20	Kyle Orton	CHI	PHI	7.75	100%	7.75
21	JaMarcus Russell	OAK	SD	7.25	100%	7.25
22	Gus Frerotte	MIN	at TEN	7.00	100%	7.00
23	Marc Bulger	STL	BUF	4.50	8%	0.38

Start: Philip Rivers (Rank: 16.50) – The Chargers have lost some close games this year, but it’s hard to blame any of that on Philip Rivers or the San Diego offense. Rivers has been lights-out so far this season, throwing for three touchdowns in each of his first three games. His QB rating has been over 120.0 each game as well, quite an impressive feat. Don’t expect the Charger signal caller to slow down this weekend against an Oakland defense that is giving up 232 yards a game (26th in the NFL).

Sit: Derek Anderson (Rank: 9.50) – As Joe Namath would say, the Browns are strugg-a-ling so far this year. The offense has been particularly lackluster. Anderson has yet to break 200 yards passing in a game this season, and has thrown only two touchdowns to five interceptions. A matchup against the Bengals may look tempting, but the Browns offense is a mess right now, and the Bengal defense is actually ranked in the top half of the league in passing defense at this point in the season. (12th, 178 yards per game)

 

Rank	Running Backs	Team	Opp.	FVIP	PP	Value
1	Frank Gore	SF	at NO	19.00	100%	19.00
2	Marshawn Lynch	BUF	at STL	18.25	100%	18.25
3	Marion Barber	DAL	WAS	18.00	100%	18.00
4	LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	at OAK	18.00	100%	18.00
5	Reggie Bush	NO	SF	17.25	100%	17.25
6	Adrian Peterson	MIN	at TEN	17.00	100%	17.00
7	Clinton Portis	WAS	at DAL	15.75	100%	15.75
8	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	HOU	15.00	100%	15.00
9	Matt Forte	CHI	PHI	14.50	100%	14.50
10	Michael Turner	ATL	at CAR	14.25	100%	14.25
11	Larry Johnson	KC	DEN	13.25	100%	13.25
12	Steven Jackson	STL	BUF	13.25	100%	13.25
13	Thomas Jones	NYJ	ARI	13.00	100%	13.00
14	Darren McFadden	OAK	SD	13.00	100%	13.00
15	Jamal Lewis	CLE	at CIN	12.75	100%	12.75
16	Earnest Graham	TB	GB	12.50	100%	12.50
17	Chris Johnson	TEN	MIN	12.50	100%	12.50
18	Chris Perry	CIN	CLE	12.25	100%	12.25
19	Ryan Grant	GB	at TB	12.00	100%	12.00
20	Fred Taylor	JAX	HOU	12.00	100%	12.00
21	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	ATL	11.75	100%	11.75
22	Willis McGahee	BAL	at PIT	11.25	98%	10.97
23	Steve Slaton	HOU	at JAX	10.75	100%	10.75
24	Edgerrin James	ARI	at NYJ	10.25	100%	10.25
25	LenDale White	TEN	MIN	10.00	100%	10.00
26	Selvin Young	DEN	at KC	9.75	100%	9.75
27	Tim Hightower	ARI	at NYJ	9.50	100%	9.50
28	Felix Jones	DAL	WAS	9.25	100%	9.25
29	Brian Westbrook	PHI	at CHI	16.75	53%	8.79
30	Correll Buckhalter	PHI	at CHI	12.00	73%	8.70
31	Brandon Jackson	GB	at TB	7.75	100%	7.75
32	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	ATL	7.50	100%	7.50
33	LeRoi McClain	BAL	at PIT	7.25	100%	7.25
34	Darren Sproles	SD	at OAK	7.25	100%	7.25
35	Jerious Norwood	ATL	at CAR	6.75	100%	6.75
36	Michael Bush	OAK	SD	6.75	100%	6.75
37	Chester Taylor	MIN	at TEN	5.75	100%	5.75
38	Ray Rice	BAL	at PIT	5.50	100%	5.50
39	Andre Hall	DEN	at KC	5.25	100%	5.25
40	Leon Washington	NYJ	ARI	4.25	100%	4.25
41	Chris Taylor	HOU	at JAX	2.50	100%	2.50
42	Willie Parker	PIT	BAL	8.75	0%	0.00

Start: Reggie Bush (Rank: 17.25) – So Reggie Bush isn’t going to be a workhorse on the ground week in and week out, that much has been shown. But he is proving this year that he is still a major fantasy factor. Bush has a league high 26 catches this year in three games, and is also piling up big yardage numbers to go along with three scores. Bush is as consistent a player as there is now in point per reception leagues, because there is really no way to stop a dump off out of the backfield. Bush should be a strong start this week against the 49ers in pretty much all scoring systems. With tight end Jeremy Shockey out, Brees should be looking for Bush on passing downs even more than usual.

Sit: Brian Westbrook (Rank: 8.79) – Obviously, Westbrook is a stud runningback and a must start under normal circumstances. But keep in mind that he is banged up this week, and will probably be a game-time decision for the Eagles’ game this week against Chicago. If he is given the green light before kickoff, you probably want him in your lineup, but if not it would might better not to risk it. Chicago has been tough against the run this year anyway, allowing an average of 71 yards rushing per game, good for 5th in the league. If Westbrook’s back-up, Correll Buckhalter, is still on waivers, be sure to put your request in.

 

Rank	Wide Receivers	Team	Opp.	FVIP	PP	Value
1	Brandon Marshall	DEN	at KC	20.00	100%	20.00
2	Terrell Owens	DAL	WAS	19.25	100%	19.25
3	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	at NYJ	18.25	100%	18.25
4	Steve Smith	CAR	ATL	17.00	100%	17.00
5	Anquan Boldin	ARI	at NYJ	16.75	100%	16.75
6	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	CLE	16.50	100%	16.50
7	Greg Jennings	GB	at TB	16.25	100%	16.25
8	Andre Johnson	HOU	at JAX	15.50	100%	15.50
9	Braylon Edwards	CLE	at CIN	15.00	100%	15.00
10	Chris Chambers	SD	at OAK	14.25	100%	14.25
11	Lee Evans	BUF	at STL	14.00	100%	14.00
12	Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	ARI	13.75	100%	13.75
13	Santana Moss	WAS	at DAL	13.75	100%	13.75
14	Hines Ward	PIT	BAL	13.25	100%	13.25
15	DeSean Jackson	PHI	at CHI	12.50	100%	12.50
16	Roddy White	ATL	at CAR	12.50	100%	12.50
17	Santonio Holmes	PIT	BAL	12.25	100%	12.25
18	Dwayne Bowe	KC	DEN	12.25	100%	12.25
19	Isaac Bruce	SF	at NO	12.00	100%	12.00
20	Laveranues Coles	NYJ	ARI	11.75	100%	11.75
21	Chad Ocho Cinco	CIN	CLE	11.75	100%	11.75
22	Donald Driver	GB	at TB	11.50	100%	11.50
23	Antonio Bryant	TB	GB	11.50	100%	11.50
24	Eddie Royal	DEN	at KC	11.25	100%	11.25
25	Torry Holt	STL	BUF	11.25	100%	11.25
26	Bryant Johnson	SF	at NO	11.00	100%	11.00
27	David Patten	NO	SF	10.25	100%	10.25
28	Vincent Jackson	SD	at OAK	9.50	100%	9.50
29	Matt Jones	JAX	HOU	8.25	100%	8.25
30	Devery Henderson	NO	SF	8.25	100%	8.25
31	Justin Gage	TEN	MIN	9.00	88%	7.88
32	Patrick Crayton	DAL	WAS	7.75	100%	7.75
33	Muhsin Muhammad	CAR	ATL	7.00	100%	7.00
34	Derrick Mason	BAL	at PIT	7.00	100%	7.00
35	Bernard Berrian	MIN	at TEN	7.00	100%	7.00
36	Javon Walker	OAK	SD	7.25	95%	6.89
37	Reggie Williams	JAX	HOU	6.75	100%	6.75
38	Ronald Curry	OAK	SD	6.00	100%	6.00
39	Kevin Walter	HOU	at JAX	6.00	100%	6.00
40	Brandon Stokley	DEN	at KC	5.75	100%	5.75
41	Hank Baskett	PHI	at CHI	5.50	100%	5.50
42	Michael Jenkins	ATL	at CAR	5.00	100%	5.00
43	D.J. Hackett	CAR	ATL	5.00	100%	5.00
44	Mark Clayton	BAL	at PIT	4.50	100%	4.50
45	Sidney Rice	MIN	at TEN	7.00	63%	4.38
46	Joey Galloway	TB	GB	9.00	48%	4.28
47	Devin Hester	CHI	PHI	2.00	23%	0.45

Start: Lee Evans (Rank: 14.00) – Lee Evans has flown a bit under the radar this season, but he has actually had three pretty solid games as the Bills have amassed a surprising 3-0 record. Evans has had four catches in each game, and has gone over 60 yards in each game as well. He has yet to find the endzone, but this week against the Rams may be the week he does it. It is no secret that the Rams have had trouble on defense (and offense) this year, so the Bills should be able to move the ball. Get Evans in your lineup.

Sit: Derrick Mason (Rank: 7.00) – The Ravens are off to a good start this year, but I would not say that their passing game has been the main reason. I like Derrick Mason, but I would not start him this week against the Steelers. These are two smash-mouth division rivals who are not all that offensive minded right now. I expect a low scoring game that does not particularly favor the wide receivers for either team as far as fantasy football goes.
 

Rank	Tight Ends	Team	Opp.	FVIP	PP	Value
1	Jason Witten	DAL	WAS	19.25	100%	19.25
2	Kellen Winslow	CLE	at CIN	18.00	100%	18.00
3	Antonio Gates	SD	at OAK	18.00	100%	18.00
4	Tony Scheffler	DEN	at KC	17.50	100%	17.50
5	Tony Gonzalez	KC	DEN	16.25	100%	16.25
6	Chris Cooley	WAS	at DAL	14.50	100%	14.50
7	Owen Daniels	HOU	at JAX	12.25	100%	12.25
8	Heath Miller	PIT	BAL	10.75	100%	10.75
9	L.J. Smith	PHI	at CHI	12.25	83%	10.11
10	Todd Heap	BAL	at PIT	9.75	100%	9.75
11	Donald Lee	GB	at TB	9.25	100%	9.25
12	Vernon Davis	SF	at NO	8.75	100%	8.75
13	Greg Olsen	CHI	PHI	7.75	100%	7.75
14	Zach Miller	OAK	SD	7.75	100%	7.75
15	Dante Rosario	CAR	ATL	7.50	100%	7.50
16	Bo Scaife	TEN	MIN	7.50	100%	7.50
17	Alge Crumpler	TEN	MIN	7.25	100%	7.25
18	Robert Royal	BUF	at STL	7.00	100%	7.00
19	Dustin Keller	NYJ	ARI	7.00	100%	7.00
20	Randy McMichael	STL	BUF	6.75	100%	6.75
21	Marcedes Lewis	JAX	HOU	5.75	100%	5.75
22	Desmond Clark	CHI	PHI	4.50	100%	4.50
23	Alex Smith	TB	GB	4.00	100%	4.00
24	Visanthe Shiancoe	MIN	at TEN	3.00	100%	3.00
25	Jeremy Shockey	NO	SF	11.25	0%	0.00

Start: Owen Daniels (Rank: 12.25) – Many thought that the tight end position would be particularly deep this seaosn, myself included. But so far it has not quite turned out that way, and this first crop of bye weeks has not helped the overall depth at the position. Owen Daniels has over 100 yards in two games, including 71 last week. The Texans are not quite an offensive juggernaut currently, but unless you have a top five tight end, Owen is a solid start at tight end.

Sit: Alge Crumpler (Rank: 7.25) – Those hoping for an Alge Crumpler resurgence in Tennessee have, as of yet, been disappointed. He is being targeted less than the Titans’ other tight end, Bo Scaife, and faces a good Minnesota defense this week. Leave him on the bench/ waiver wire.
 

Rank	Kickers	Team	Opp.	FVIP	PP	Value
1	Nick Folk	DAL	WAS	18.25	100%	18.25
2	Mason Crosby	GB	at TB	18.00	100%	18.00
3	Ryan Longwell	MIN	at TEN	17.75	100%	17.75
4	Rob Bironas	TEN	MIN	17.50	100%	17.50
5	Matt Prater	DEN	at KC	17.00	100%	17.00
6	Nate Kaeding	SD	at OAK	16.75	100%	16.75
7	David Akers	PHI	at CHI	16.75	100%	16.75
8	Neil Rackers	ARI	at NYJ	15.75	100%	15.75
9	Rian Lindell	BUF	at STL	14.75	100%	14.75
10	John Kasay	CAR	ATL	14.50	100%	14.50
11	Shayne Graham	CIN	CLE	14.50	100%	14.50
12	Robbie Gould	CHI	PHI	13.75	100%	13.75
13	Jeff Reed	PIT	BAL	13.50	100%	13.50
14	Phil Dawson	CLE	at CIN	13.25	100%	13.25
15	Joe Nedney	SF	at NO	13.25	100%	13.25
16	Josh Scobee	JAX	HOU	13.25	100%	13.25
17	Matt Bryant	TB	GB	12.50	100%	12.50
18	Martin Gramatica	NO	SF	12.25	100%	12.25
19	Shaun Suisham	WAS	at DAL	11.75	100%	11.75
20	Jason Elam	ATL	at CAR	11.50	100%	11.50
21	Kris Brown	HOU	at JAX	11.50	100%	11.50
22	Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	SD	9.75	100%	9.75
23	Josh Brown	STL	BUF	9.25	100%	9.25
24	Matt Stover	BAL	at PIT	9.00	100%	9.00
25	Mike Nugent	NYJ	ARI	9.50	80%	7.60
26	Nick Novak	KC	DEN	5.75	100%	5.75

Start: David Akers (Rank: 16.75) – Akers has yet to miss a field goal this year, and the Philly offense has given him plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. With McNabb and Westbrook banged up this week against the Bears, the Eagles should still move the ball, but may stall in the red zone more than usual. If Akers gets his chances he should be able to convert for you this week.

Sit: Martin Gramatica (Rank: 12.25) – Gramatica seems to always find some team to latch on to. He started out the season fairly well, but missed two field goals last week, including the game winner. The Saints will be missing Colston and Shockey on offense, making Gramatica a less attractive choice. That Saints-Niners game could very well end up being a shoot-out, but I am sure that there are safer options at kicker available in your league.
 

Rank	Defense	Team	Opp.	FVIP	PP	Value
1	Buffalo Bills	BUF	at STL	18.50	100%	18.50
2	San Diego Chargers	SD	at OAK	16.25	100%	16.25
3	Tennessee Titans	TEN	MIN	16.00	100%	16.00
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX	HOU	15.25	100%	15.25
5	Denver Broncos	DEN	at KC	14.50	100%	14.50
6	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI	at CHI	14.00	100%	14.00
7	Carolina Panthers	CAR	ATL	13.75	100%	13.75
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT	BAL	13.50	100%	13.50
9	Baltimore Ravens	BAL	at PIT	13.00	100%	13.00
10	Minnesota Vikings	MIN	at TEN	12.75	100%	12.75
11	Chicago Bears	CHI	PHI	12.75	100%	12.75
12	Arizona Cardinals	ARI	at NYJ	12.75	100%	12.75
13	Dallas Cowboys	DAL	WAS	11.50	100%	11.50
14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB	GB	11.25	100%	11.25
15	Green Bay Packers	GB	at TB	11.25	100%	11.25
16	New Orleans Saints	NO	SF	10.25	100%	10.25
17	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN	CLE	9.25	100%	9.25
18	New York Jets	NYJ	ARI	8.00	100%	8.00
19	Houston Texans	HOU	at JAX	7.50	100%	7.50
20	Washington Redskins	WAS	at DAL	7.25	100%	7.25
21	Atlanta Falcons	ATL	at CAR	7.25	100%	7.25
22	San Francisco 49ers	SF	at NO	7.00	100%	7.00
23	Cleveland Browns	CLE	at CIN	6.75	100%	6.75
24	Oakland Raiders	OAK	SD	5.75	100%	5.75
25	Kansas City Chiefs	KC	DEN	3.00	100%	3.00
26	St. Louis Rams	STL	BUF	2.75	100%	2.75

Start: Baltimore Ravens (Rank: 13.00) – Big plays on defense have been a big factor contributing to the Ravens 2-0 start. The Ravens have scored twice on defense on six turnovers. With Big Ben limping and Will Parker out for the Steelers, expect a good showing for Baltimore’s defense.

Sit: Green Bay Packers (Rank: 11.25) – The Packers have a solid defense, but their opponents this week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are no slouches either. Tampa Bay is 7th in the NFL in yards per game, and 13th in points. The Bucs’ passing offense, in particular, was outstanding last week, when Brian Griese threw for over 400 yards against the Bears. This is something that should be of concern for Green Bay, as their top cornerback Al Harris will miss the game with a spleen injury (ouch!).

 

Many thanks to the people who helped put this together: treat24, Dan Lambskin, WaCougMBS, utility-hook, joelamosobadiah, Bobbing_headz, and Amuk who helped with the rankings!

 

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