Start & SitSeptember 25, 2008

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Week 4

By Nick Hopkins

Welcome, fantasy fanatics, to the Week 4 Edition of the Cafe’s Start and Sit. There were some big stories in the NFL last week, including the Dolphins’ unexpected domination of the New England Patriots (and Ronnie Brown’s game for the ages), the Colts faltering at home against Jacksonville, and the Chargers and Jets putting up another huge point total on Monday Night Football. It is also starting to become clear which teams you want to avoid for fantasy purposes (namely Kansas City, St. Louis, Cleveland, and maybe even Cincinnati for now). As for this coming week, don’t forget, a handful of teams will have off this week (Giants, Dolphins, Seahawks, Patriots, Lions, and Colts). But that’s enough rambling from me… Let’s move on to the rankings!

Our rating system is based on two sets of rankings. The first set is a value between 1-20, given based on a player’s Fantasy Value If Playing (FVIP). The second set is that player’s Playing Probability (PP). These two sets are thrown into a giant machine, twisted around a little, mixed up, sorted, resorted, then eventually darts are thrown at the results. If you require any further help, our start/sit forum is top notch. You will find quick replies to your questions there and many eager helpers!

1Jay CutlerDENat KC20.00100%20.00
2Drew BreesNOSF18.75100%18.75
3Tony RomoDALWAS18.50100%18.50
4Kurt WarnerARIat NYJ16.50100%16.50
5Philip RiversSDat OAK16.50100%16.50
6Carson PalmerCINCLE16.25100%16.25
7Donovan McNabbPHIat CHI15.75100%15.75
8Aaron RodgersGBat TB15.75100%15.75
9J.T. O’SullivanSFat NO14.25100%14.25
10Jake DelhommeCARATL14.00100%14.00
11Brett FavreNYJARI14.00100%14.00
12Trent EdwardsBUFat STL13.75100%13.75
13Jason CampbellWASat DAL12.75100%12.75
14Ben RoethlisbergerPITBAL12.7592%11.69
15David GarrardJAXHOU11.25100%11.25
16Matt SchaubHOUat JAX9.75100%9.75
17Matt RyanATLat CAR9.50100%9.50
18Derek AndersonCLEat CIN10.75
Alert! 88%
19Joe FlaccoBALat PIT7.75100%7.75
20Kyle OrtonCHIPHI7.75100%7.75
21JaMarcus RussellOAKSD7.25100%7.25
22Gus FrerotteMINat TEN7.00100%7.00
23Marc BulgerSTLBUF4.50
Alert! 8%

Start: Philip Rivers (Rank: 16.50) – The Chargers have lost some close games this year, but it’s hard to blame any of that on Philip Rivers or the San Diego offense. Rivers has been lights-out so far this season, throwing for three touchdowns in each of his first three games. His QB rating has been over 120.0 each game as well, quite an impressive feat. Don’t expect the Charger signal caller to slow down this weekend against an Oakland defense that is giving up 232 yards a game (26th in the NFL).

Sit: Derek Anderson (Rank: 9.50) – As Joe Namath would say, the Browns are strugg-a-ling so far this year. The offense has been particularly lackluster. Anderson has yet to break 200 yards passing in a game this season, and has thrown only two touchdowns to five interceptions. A matchup against the Bengals may look tempting, but the Browns offense is a mess right now, and the Bengal defense is actually ranked in the top half of the league in passing defense at this point in the season. (12th, 178 yards per game)


RankRunning BacksTeamOpp.FVIPPPValue
1Frank GoreSFat NO19.00100%19.00
2Marshawn LynchBUFat STL18.25100%18.25
3Marion BarberDALWAS18.00100%18.00
4LaDainian TomlinsonSDat OAK18.00100%18.00
5Reggie BushNOSF17.25100%17.25
6Adrian PetersonMINat TEN17.00100%17.00
7Clinton PortisWASat DAL15.75100%15.75
8Maurice Jones-DrewJAXHOU15.00100%15.00
9Matt ForteCHIPHI14.50100%14.50
10Michael TurnerATLat CAR14.25100%14.25
11Larry JohnsonKCDEN13.25100%13.25
12Steven JacksonSTLBUF13.25100%13.25
13Thomas JonesNYJARI13.00100%13.00
14Darren McFaddenOAKSD13.00100%13.00
15Jamal LewisCLEat CIN12.75100%12.75
16Earnest GrahamTBGB12.50100%12.50
17Chris JohnsonTENMIN12.50100%12.50
18Chris PerryCINCLE12.25100%12.25
19Ryan GrantGBat TB12.00100%12.00
20Fred TaylorJAXHOU12.00100%12.00
21Jonathan StewartCARATL11.75100%11.75
22Willis McGaheeBALat PIT11.2598%10.97
23Steve SlatonHOUat JAX10.75100%10.75
24Edgerrin JamesARIat NYJ10.25100%10.25
25LenDale WhiteTENMIN10.00100%10.00
26Selvin YoungDENat KC9.75100%9.75
27Tim HightowerARIat NYJ9.50100%9.50
28Felix JonesDALWAS9.25100%9.25
29Brian WestbrookPHIat CHI16.75
Alert! 53%
30Correll BuckhalterPHIat CHI12.00
Alert! 73%
31Brandon JacksonGBat TB7.75100%7.75
32DeAngelo WilliamsCARATL7.50100%7.50
33LeRoi McClainBALat PIT7.25100%7.25
34Darren SprolesSDat OAK7.25100%7.25
35Jerious NorwoodATLat CAR6.75100%6.75
36Michael BushOAKSD6.75100%6.75
37Chester TaylorMINat TEN5.75100%5.75
38Ray RiceBALat PIT5.50100%5.50
39Andre HallDENat KC5.25100%5.25
40Leon WashingtonNYJARI4.25100%4.25
41Chris TaylorHOUat JAX2.50100%2.50
42Willie ParkerPITBAL8.75
Alert! 0%

Start: Reggie Bush (Rank: 17.25) – So Reggie Bush isn’t going to be a workhorse on the ground week in and week out, that much has been shown. But he is proving this year that he is still a major fantasy factor. Bush has a league high 26 catches this year in three games, and is also piling up big yardage numbers to go along with three scores. Bush is as consistent a player as there is now in point per reception leagues, because there is really no way to stop a dump off out of the backfield. Bush should be a strong start this week against the 49ers in pretty much all scoring systems. With tight end Jeremy Shockey out, Brees should be looking for Bush on passing downs even more than usual.

Sit: Brian Westbrook (Rank: 8.79) – Obviously, Westbrook is a stud runningback and a must start under normal circumstances. But keep in mind that he is banged up this week, and will probably be a game-time decision for the Eagles’ game this week against Chicago. If he is given the green light before kickoff, you probably want him in your lineup, but if not it would might better not to risk it. Chicago has been tough against the run this year anyway, allowing an average of 71 yards rushing per game, good for 5th in the league. If Westbrook’s back-up, Correll Buckhalter, is still on waivers, be sure to put your request in.


RankWide ReceiversTeamOpp.FVIPPPValue
1Brandon MarshallDENat KC20.00100%20.00
2Terrell OwensDALWAS19.25100%19.25
3Larry FitzgeraldARIat NYJ18.25100%18.25
4Steve SmithCARATL17.00100%17.00
5Anquan BoldinARIat NYJ16.75100%16.75
6T.J. HoushmandzadehCINCLE16.50100%16.50
7Greg JenningsGBat TB16.25100%16.25
8Andre JohnsonHOUat JAX15.50100%15.50
9Braylon EdwardsCLEat CIN15.00100%15.00
10Chris ChambersSDat OAK14.25100%14.25
11Lee EvansBUFat STL14.00100%14.00
12Jerricho CotcheryNYJARI13.75100%13.75
13Santana MossWASat DAL13.75100%13.75
14Hines WardPITBAL13.25100%13.25
15DeSean JacksonPHIat CHI12.50100%12.50
16Roddy WhiteATLat CAR12.50100%12.50
17Santonio HolmesPITBAL12.25100%12.25
18Dwayne BoweKCDEN12.25100%12.25
19Isaac BruceSFat NO12.00100%12.00
20Laveranues ColesNYJARI11.75100%11.75
21Chad Ocho CincoCINCLE11.75100%11.75
22Donald DriverGBat TB11.50100%11.50
23Antonio BryantTBGB11.50100%11.50
24Eddie RoyalDENat KC11.25100%11.25
25Torry HoltSTLBUF11.25100%11.25
26Bryant JohnsonSFat NO11.00100%11.00
27David PattenNOSF10.25100%10.25
28Vincent JacksonSDat OAK9.50100%9.50
29Matt JonesJAXHOU8.25100%8.25
30Devery HendersonNOSF8.25100%8.25
31Justin GageTENMIN9.00
Alert! 88%
32Patrick CraytonDALWAS7.75100%7.75
33Muhsin MuhammadCARATL7.00100%7.00
34Derrick MasonBALat PIT7.00100%7.00
35Bernard BerrianMINat TEN7.00100%7.00
36Javon WalkerOAKSD7.2595%6.89
37Reggie WilliamsJAXHOU6.75100%6.75
38Ronald CurryOAKSD6.00100%6.00
39Kevin WalterHOUat JAX6.00100%6.00
40Brandon StokleyDENat KC5.75100%5.75
41Hank BaskettPHIat CHI5.50100%5.50
42Michael JenkinsATLat CAR5.00100%5.00
43D.J. HackettCARATL5.00100%5.00
44Mark ClaytonBALat PIT4.50100%4.50
45Sidney RiceMINat TEN7.00
Alert! 63%
46Joey GallowayTBGB9.00
Alert! 48%
47Devin HesterCHIPHI2.00
Alert! 23%

Start: Lee Evans (Rank: 14.00) – Lee Evans has flown a bit under the radar this season, but he has actually had three pretty solid games as the Bills have amassed a surprising 3-0 record. Evans has had four catches in each game, and has gone over 60 yards in each game as well. He has yet to find the endzone, but this week against the Rams may be the week he does it. It is no secret that the Rams have had trouble on defense (and offense) this year, so the Bills should be able to move the ball. Get Evans in your lineup.

Sit: Derrick Mason (Rank: 7.00) – The Ravens are off to a good start this year, but I would not say that their passing game has been the main reason. I like Derrick Mason, but I would not start him this week against the Steelers. These are two smash-mouth division rivals who are not all that offensive minded right now. I expect a low scoring game that does not particularly favor the wide receivers for either team as far as fantasy football goes.

RankTight EndsTeamOpp.FVIPPPValue
1Jason WittenDALWAS19.25100%19.25
2Kellen WinslowCLEat CIN18.00100%18.00
3Antonio GatesSDat OAK18.00100%18.00
4Tony SchefflerDENat KC17.50100%17.50
5Tony GonzalezKCDEN16.25100%16.25
6Chris CooleyWASat DAL14.50100%14.50
7Owen DanielsHOUat JAX12.25100%12.25
8Heath MillerPITBAL10.75100%10.75
9L.J. SmithPHIat CHI12.25
Alert! 83%
10Todd HeapBALat PIT9.75100%9.75
11Donald LeeGBat TB9.25100%9.25
12Vernon DavisSFat NO8.75100%8.75
13Greg OlsenCHIPHI7.75100%7.75
14Zach MillerOAKSD7.75100%7.75
15Dante RosarioCARATL7.50100%7.50
16Bo ScaifeTENMIN7.50100%7.50
17Alge CrumplerTENMIN7.25100%7.25
18Robert RoyalBUFat STL7.00100%7.00
19Dustin KellerNYJARI7.00100%7.00
20Randy McMichaelSTLBUF6.75100%6.75
21Marcedes LewisJAXHOU5.75100%5.75
22Desmond ClarkCHIPHI4.50100%4.50
23Alex SmithTBGB4.00100%4.00
24Visanthe ShiancoeMINat TEN3.00100%3.00
25Jeremy ShockeyNOSF11.25
Alert! 0%

Start: Owen Daniels (Rank: 12.25) – Many thought that the tight end position would be particularly deep this seaosn, myself included. But so far it has not quite turned out that way, and this first crop of bye weeks has not helped the overall depth at the position. Owen Daniels has over 100 yards in two games, including 71 last week. The Texans are not quite an offensive juggernaut currently, but unless you have a top five tight end, Owen is a solid start at tight end.

Sit: Alge Crumpler (Rank: 7.25) – Those hoping for an Alge Crumpler resurgence in Tennessee have, as of yet, been disappointed. He is being targeted less than the Titans’ other tight end, Bo Scaife, and faces a good Minnesota defense this week. Leave him on the bench/ waiver wire.

1Nick FolkDALWAS18.25100%18.25
2Mason CrosbyGBat TB18.00100%18.00
3Ryan LongwellMINat TEN17.75100%17.75
4Rob BironasTENMIN17.50100%17.50
5Matt PraterDENat KC17.00100%17.00
6Nate KaedingSDat OAK16.75100%16.75
7David AkersPHIat CHI16.75100%16.75
8Neil RackersARIat NYJ15.75100%15.75
9Rian LindellBUFat STL14.75100%14.75
10John KasayCARATL14.50100%14.50
11Shayne GrahamCINCLE14.50100%14.50
12Robbie GouldCHIPHI13.75100%13.75
13Jeff ReedPITBAL13.50100%13.50
14Phil DawsonCLEat CIN13.25100%13.25
15Joe NedneySFat NO13.25100%13.25
16Josh ScobeeJAXHOU13.25100%13.25
17Matt BryantTBGB12.50100%12.50
18Martin GramaticaNOSF12.25100%12.25
19Shaun SuishamWASat DAL11.75100%11.75
20Jason ElamATLat CAR11.50100%11.50
21Kris BrownHOUat JAX11.50100%11.50
22Sebastian JanikowskiOAKSD9.75100%9.75
23Josh BrownSTLBUF9.25100%9.25
24Matt StoverBALat PIT9.00100%9.00
25Mike NugentNYJARI9.50
Alert! 80%
26Nick NovakKCDEN5.75100%5.75

Start: David Akers (Rank: 16.75) – Akers has yet to miss a field goal this year, and the Philly offense has given him plenty of opportunities to put points on the board. With McNabb and Westbrook banged up this week against the Bears, the Eagles should still move the ball, but may stall in the red zone more than usual. If Akers gets his chances he should be able to convert for you this week.

Sit: Martin Gramatica (Rank: 12.25) – Gramatica seems to always find some team to latch on to. He started out the season fairly well, but missed two field goals last week, including the game winner. The Saints will be missing Colston and Shockey on offense, making Gramatica a less attractive choice. That Saints-Niners game could very well end up being a shoot-out, but I am sure that there are safer options at kicker available in your league.

1Buffalo BillsBUFat STL18.50100%18.50
2San Diego ChargersSDat OAK16.25100%16.25
3Tennessee TitansTENMIN16.00100%16.00
4Jacksonville JaguarsJAXHOU15.25100%15.25
5Denver BroncosDENat KC14.50100%14.50
6Philadelphia EaglesPHIat CHI14.00100%14.00
7Carolina PanthersCARATL13.75100%13.75
8Pittsburgh SteelersPITBAL13.50100%13.50
9Baltimore RavensBALat PIT13.00100%13.00
10Minnesota VikingsMINat TEN12.75100%12.75
11Chicago BearsCHIPHI12.75100%12.75
12Arizona CardinalsARIat NYJ12.75100%12.75
13Dallas CowboysDALWAS11.50100%11.50
14Tampa Bay BuccaneersTBGB11.25100%11.25
15Green Bay PackersGBat TB11.25100%11.25
16New Orleans SaintsNOSF10.25100%10.25
17Cincinnati BengalsCINCLE9.25100%9.25
18New York JetsNYJARI8.00100%8.00
19Houston TexansHOUat JAX7.50100%7.50
20Washington RedskinsWASat DAL7.25100%7.25
21Atlanta FalconsATLat CAR7.25100%7.25
22San Francisco 49ersSFat NO7.00100%7.00
23Cleveland BrownsCLEat CIN6.75100%6.75
24Oakland RaidersOAKSD5.75100%5.75
25Kansas City ChiefsKCDEN3.00100%3.00
26St. Louis RamsSTLBUF2.75100%2.75

Start: Baltimore Ravens (Rank: 13.00) – Big plays on defense have been a big factor contributing to the Ravens 2-0 start. The Ravens have scored twice on defense on six turnovers. With Big Ben limping and Will Parker out for the Steelers, expect a good showing for Baltimore’s defense.

Sit: Green Bay Packers (Rank: 11.25) – The Packers have a solid defense, but their opponents this week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are no slouches either. Tampa Bay is 7th in the NFL in yards per game, and 13th in points. The Bucs’ passing offense, in particular, was outstanding last week, when Brian Griese threw for over 400 yards against the Bears. This is something that should be of concern for Green Bay, as their top cornerback Al Harris will miss the game with a spleen injury (ouch!).


Many thanks to the people who helped put this together: treat24, Dan Lambskin, WaCougMBS, utility-hook, joelamosobadiah, Bobbing_headz, and Amuk who helped with the rankings!

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