Changing Face of Fantasy Drafts

The way we draft our fantasy teams has drastically changed over the past couple of years. Grabbing a running back with your first (and usually second) pick was a must once upon a time. That is changing with the rules that have opened up passing offenses in the past few years.

If you told me you were drafting a QB with a top-three pick in your fantasy draft a few years ago, I would either: A) slap you in the face and hope to knock the sense back into you, or B) if I was in the league with you, tell you it was a great idea and scheme about how to blow my winnings! However, if you told me that today I would not question your logic.

If you belong to a league where passing touchdowns count the same value as all other touchdowns, then you have to consider taking a quarterback with your top pick. Last season in a league with pretty standard scoring (6 points for all touchdowns, 1 point per 10 yards rushing or receiving, 1 point for every 25 yards passing and .5 points per catch) your top five fantasy scorers (drum roll please?) were:

Player	Points
Tom Brady	480
Tony Romo	346
Peyton Manning	336
Randy Moss	331
LaDainian Tomlinson	320

Only one of the top five is a running back. Not only that, but the gap between Brady and Tomlinson is 160 points!!!

I know what you are thinking, and Tom Brady isn’t probably going to have 50 touchdowns again, but is it unrealistic to think he will have 30-40? I don’t think it is. Another advantage of picking a QB with your first pick is durability; they tend to take less abuse and hold up better than running backs. Brady and Manning are pretty much money in the bank to start every game this season.

Now this being said, there is still a great risk in taking a quarterback with your first pick. One of the major factors in picking a running back first is that you generally start at least two of them in most leagues and only start one quarterback. So in a 12-team league, are there 12 serviceable starters available at QB? Absolutely. Now, are there 24 serviceable running backs in the day and age of backfield committees? That is a little more debatable.

If you take a quarterback first, then you are going to need to get lucky on a later round back. This can work out (just ask people that drafted Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch last year), but for every one of them there are five picks that didn’t pan out. It’s a risk that you have to take if you select a quarterback with your first pick. Heck, even a lot of first rounders don’t pan out – Rudi Johnson at number six overall last year was one of those picks.

On the other hand, you can get your stud running back and pluck a very good quarterback in rounds 2-5. This tried-and-true strategy has worked for a long time, but times are changing. Both strategies can work out for you, but just a few years ago we wouldn’t even have this debate. In the long run it’s good for fantasy football, it’s more fun being able to make your own blueprint to success, and it makes fantasy football that much more interesting.

 
Like most people Todd lives and and breathes football, and during the off season, he can't help but feel something is missing (just don't tell his wife that). You can catch up with Todd in the Cafe Forums where he posts as toddrules.
 

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