Week 5 in the NCAA was a week of numerous “big time” upsets. The week started off with the number one team, USC, going down on Thursday night and ended with the preseason number one, Georgia, going down on Sunday night, at home, to Alabama. It was a crazy week in college football and I was surprised to see ESPN not name it “Survivor Saturday”, like they have in the past. Maybe they will use the phrase this week as they recap last week’s games. Normally I use the beginning of our rankings to recap the previous week’s games and offer up some of my analysis of games I have seen, but with all of the upsets from last week I decided to go a different way with this week’s column. Last week had multiple “upsets”, but are they really upsets when there are so many of them, and each year we see the same types of upsets?
Fans have longed cheered for the loss of a dominating team and worshiped the little guy making that a reality. College football has always been the one sport where those upsets seem to have the most meaning and create the most buzz. However, have the rules in college football made upsets too frequent? Is it really an upset when it happens over and over again every year? Americans love to place their sports teams into two categories - David and Goliath. Fans love to the see the high and mighty Goliath go down to the lowly David, but what happens when Goliath just isn’t mighty anymore? In order to have an upset, you need to have dominant teams that fans love to hate, and who seemingly wins every time out.
Over the last 15 years, the NCAA has put in new rules in order to level the playing field between all the teams. Gone are the Miami Hurricanes of the 1980’s and the Seminoles of the 1990’s, who were a lock for the top five and a shot at the National Championship game. The NCAA’s reduction of scholarships has made it so the smaller schools are able to attract players that would have been back ups on other big time programs like USC or Oklahoma. The depth problems have made it so the big teams not only have to try and replace starters every recruiting class, but have also eliminated the depth each team has for each game. Football is a grind and whoever is freshest in the fourth quarter of a close game will usually pull that game out, which is why the bigger programs with more depth used to pull out games that are now upsets. The number of “upsets” we see now did not happen in the past because the bigger programs had the smaller team’s star players, and also had the depth to out last other programs.
On top of the scholarship issue the NCAA decided they wanted to shorten games because they were running too long. There is an old saying that the “cream always rises to the top.” The problem for college football under the new rule changes is that they don’t give the cream enough time to rise. This is the second time the NCAA has changed the clock rules to shorten the games in the last 3 seasons. The last time they made change they were forced to undo them because teams and coaches made the same complaints we are hearing now. When you cut the games short it becomes a lot easier for the weaker team to hang around and pull an upset. Games are averaging 14 plays less a game, which may not sound like a lot, but it is over 10% of the games snaps. When the game goes longer you are forced to dip into your depth, which for smaller schools is going to be less. The change in clock rules have let weaker teams hang around longer, and ultimately able to finish off the upset.
Right now everyone must be thinking that I am all for these big programs and don’t want the little ones to come in and rain on their parade, but that would be wrong. What I am trying to say is that the upsets that I once loved have lost their meaning and luster because the NCAA has made it too easy for the smaller schools to pull the “upset”. Last season a team that was ranked higher lost 61 times, including 29 with top 10 rankings. That is right, 29 times a top 10 team lost to a lesser opponent. Did last weeks upsets really surprise college football fans? USC had lost two of its last 3 trips to Corvallis before Thursday’s game. Ole Miss had a 5-3-1 record against the Gators in the Swamp going into their Saturday match up, including a 20-17 win in 2003. The list can go on with the other teams as well. These games have become common place in college football. I remember watching the wide left and wide right games between Florida State and Miami. I remember watching Boston College kick a 41 yard field goal with only second left to end Notre Dame’s title hopes. I remember Doug Flutie’s Hail Mary pass to beat Miami. I remember them like they were yesterday because they are what made college football so great to watch. I won’t remember any of these upsets after next week because ultimately they don’t matter. Almost every other team was “upset” this weekend, and the ones that weren’t will most likely go down sometime this season. They will call them upsets later on this season, but they really are just losses. With the new rule changes upsets have become common place and we have lost our Goliaths, and are stuck with a bunch of David’s beating on each other. In this new environment of college football the upset has lost its luster a bit, and ultimately I think that is bad for college football.
Rank
Change
TEAM
Avg Rank
D e e
A F F
h s k r p w r
K n a p p
V a d e r
J a y
B a g e l
M u g r i l a
B l u e B a n d i t 2 4
S a n d r o c k
O R S
1 (2)
Oklahoma
1.1
1
1
3
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2 (9)
Alabama
2.3
2
2
1
4
4
1
2
2
2
5
2
3 (6)
Missouri
2.9
3
3
4
2
2
3
3
3
4
2
3
4 (5)
LSU
3.6
4
4
2
3
3
5
4
4
3
3
4
5 (8)
Texas
5.0
5
5
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
4
5
6 (11)
Penn State
6.3
6
6
7
7
6
4
6
6
6
7
7
7 (10)
Texas Tech
7.6
8
13
9
6
7
7
8
9
8
6
6
8 (12)
South Florida
9.1
7
11
6
9
9
12
7
11
10
8
10
9 (13)
Brigham Young
9.0
9
10
10
8
8
9
9
7
13
10
8
10 (1)
USC
10.2
12
9
20
14
10
8
13
8
7
9
9
11 (3)
Georgia
11.0
10
8
13
15
11
10
10
12
9
13
11
12 (14)
Auburn
12.7
11
7
12
11
13
17
14
15
12
12
14
13 (4)
Florida
12.6
13
12
23
16
12
11
12
14
11
11
12
14 ( 17 )
Utah
14.7
18
17
8
12
15
22
15
10
14
16
15
15 (16)
Kansas
15.1
17
16
14
10
18
14
11
20
15
15
16
16 (18)
Ohio State
15.6
14
14
21
17
14
13
17
16
16
19
13
17 (21)
Vanderbilt
17.0
15
19
11
23
17
18
20
13
17
14
20
18 (19)
Boise State
18.3
20
25
15
13
16
27
18
18
18
17
18
19 (7)
Wisconsin
18.4
19
18
31
21
19
15
16
17
21
18
17
20 (NR)
NR
Virginia Tech
21.2
26
15
22
19
22
19
23
19
24
24
19
21 (NR)
NR
Uconn
22.4
24
21
19
20
21
21
26
24
25
22
24
22 (NR)
NR
Oklahoma State
22.4
23
31
16
22
20
24
31
21
19
21
21
23 (NR)
NR
Oregon
22.6
16
31
17
24
23
28
19
26
23
20
23
24 (23)
Fresno State
23.2
22
23
31
18
24
26
22
22
22
26
22
25 (NR)
NR
Michigan State
25.0
21
20
31
31
27
23
21
31
20
23
28
Y
Agree or disagree on the rankings? Agree or Disagree about upsets? Come share your thoughts in the College Forum!!
Adam Lewis is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Adam in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of deerayfan072.
(12 votes, average: 4.17 out of 5)
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(12 votes, average: 4.17 out of 5)
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