2008 Studs, Duds, and Sleepers

It’s that time of year again. For the next five months or so I will spend every Sunday glued to my couch, remote in one hand, beer in the other, laptop to my side and wings right in front of me - all of the necessities required as I watch the New York Football Giants dominate and, even more importantly, follow my fantasy team as they try to pull off another win.

Yup, it’s that time of year again… when you worry more about who’s the next big sleeper to pickup than you do about your social life, job, and/or relationship (you know, the important things in life). Don’t you love the “You love fantasy football more than me!” comments? Little does she know it’s true (just kidding of course).

But I digress.

Before I dispense my advice, I want to make a quick comment about sleeper picks. Nine out of ten times you end up making the wrong decision on a player, but God does it feel good that one time you are right! You feel like an absolute genius; who cares that you passed on Tom Brady last year! You picked up Derek Anderson, Earnest Graham, or Ryan Grant when no one expected that type of year out of them! OK, so that was a bit of an exaggeration. While Anderson and Grant were great pickups, Brady was on another world last year. Sorry L.T., but Brady was just ridiculous and made every person in fantasy who didn’t have him very jealous.

So who do I like this year? Who will make you look like a genius? Who should you pass on and then mock your friends for being dumb enough to take? Here’s my take - my PPR (that’s Point Per Reception, the only league that Reggie Bush is still at all relevant in) Player Previews:

Quarterback:
I never tend to draft QBs in the early rounds. While there are obviously some dominant ones, I think when you start getting to the middle of the pack, it’s all about matchups and who’s hot. There really isn’t much of a difference in the total points scored by Tier-2 QBs. I’d personally rather take a #1 WR or RB early and a QB late.

Studs:
Tom Brady: Do I really need to say anything about him? Brady to Moss is a B-E-A-UTIFUL thing (and I hate the Pats).
Peyton Manning: His knees worry me in week 1, but that’s about it. He’s got everyone back including what looks to be a healthy Harrison. While I don’t think he’ll put up Brady numbers, he’ll be very close.
Drew Brees: Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey, and an emerging Robert Meachem all will increase Brees’ value. This offense is going to put up big numbers this year. I will go out on a limb and put Brees right on a level with Brady and Manning this year. After these three I think the talent level falls off.
Derek Anderson: Another QB just surrounded by talent. Kellen Winslow, Braylon Edwards, Dante Stallworth, Jamal Lewis and the running game are all looking good. They have a tough schedule but that offense should still put up some great numbers.
Tony Romo: Come on, I am a Giants fan… no praise for him here. But for fantasy’s sake, he’s not a bad option.

Duds:
Carson Palmer: Every year I expect greatness out of you. The team has so much talent at WR, yet there is always something (lately it’s been interceptions) holding him back. I just don’t know how high I am on Palmer anymore. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, and Chris Henry will all be back this year….it’s time for Palmer to put up or get out. I just don’t agree with taking him as high as he is being drafted.
Marc Bulger: Oh how I wish you were the Bulger of old. You would have won me a championship last year and you’d have given me a chance this year! But I just don’t think he has it back yet. Whether it’s the injury-plagued offensive line, missing Steven Jackson and Torry Holt, or something else, I don’t know - but it’s just not there this year.
Vince Young: Does Young remind anyone else of Michael Vick without the athleticism? I jst don’t see Young ever being a great Fantasy QB. He may win NFL games but he won’t win fantasy games.
Matt Hasselbeck: Coming into this season, this team is relying on the passing game and we are all expecting huge things from Hasselbeck. However, I just don’t think he can overcome the numerous injuries to his WRs in order to have a huge year. Look to trade for him in the mid-season once his receivers’ health improves. But in the meantime I’ll leave you with this question: Can you name a HEALTHY Seattle Seahawk WR not named Nate Burleson? No? Didn’t think so.

Sleepers:
Donovan McNabb: I think he’s back. He’s looking good in preseason and a lot like his old self. I think you can steal him in one of the later rounds of the draft. He still does not have a dominating WR, but has he really ever (minus the T.O. year)?
Matt Schaub: If he and Andre Johnson can stay healthy, the HOU offense is going to stay powerful. Look what that offense did last year when they were injured and without a running game. They were very successful. I think Steve Slaton will provide a little balance as he’s been looking good so far this preseason. Draft Schaub for value as he will put up significant numbers this year.
John Kitna: Draft Kitna for the simple fact that Calvin Johnson is a freak and is starting to play like we all thought he could. Johnson will be the the next Randy Moss and he will play like it beginning in 2008. With Johnson going deep and with Roy Williams complimenting him on the other side of the field, Kitna has to put up numbers.
Jason Campbell: He’s another one I actually like and one I think you can get on the wire after the draft. He’s looking very efficient in the preseason and he has a lot of talent at every skill position around him.
Troy Smith: Yes that Troy Smith. I always thought he should be given a chance. He’s an athlete, but he can also throw a very nice ball (unlike Mr. Young mentioned above). Smith definitely rates as a waiver-wire pickup and could be a solid bye-week play against the right matchup. Moreover, he’ll have a healthy Willis McGahee when the season starts.

Running Backs:
I tend to always select RBs in the first round. To me the fall off is just so great from the first round RBs to those that follow. Furthermore, someone always gets hurt and at least two sleepers arise to have a huge impact on the fantasy world.

Studs:
LaDainian Tomlinson: He’s getting older and was hurt last year but come on, it’s L.T. You’d be mocked if you did not take this guy #1 and he’s completely worth it.
Brian Westbrook: PPR god. I actually like him more than Adrian Peterson (A.D.) as I think he will score more points in PPR this year. He also has a fully healthy McNabb which teams will have to respect again. Plus, A.D.’s running style just scares me. (Continued Below)
A.D.: Don’t get me wrong, I love seeing him lower the shoulder on unassuming defenders. As a fantasy owner however, I wince every time and then scream at the TV, “Get out of bounds!” He’s an absolute talent and can just dominate fantasy much like L.T. has, but can he stay healthy?
Steven Jackson (SJAX): He’s due. SJAX had an injury-plagued year in 2007 after he bragged about all the yards he was going to amass. In 2008, he’s going to catch a bunch of balls and run for a ton of yards. I would not at all be upset if he fell to my pick.
Frank Gore: Gore’s outlook is the same as Jackson’s and those who saw San Francisco’s game against Chicago had to be both impressed and happy with Gore. Gore’s going to catch a ton of passes this year which is great in PPR. He was the focal point of the offense when he played. I am VERY high on him this year.
Marion Barber: Barber is another RB that I am very high on. He’s always scored a ton of TDs, but hadn’t done much else with Julius Jones being the featured back in Dallas. Now Barber’s got the RB1 job all to himself and he will be a more compete fantasy player this year. Felix Jones doesn’t scare me that much at all, but by the end of the season I can see Jones taking away from some of Barber’s receptions. Either way, this will be Barber’s biggest fantasy year ever. Can he be the L.J. from two years ago? I don’t know, but with all the talent around him, his output will be very similar.

Duds:
Larry Johnson: Speaking of the devil… boy, did he ever hit a wall (and we all have Herm Edwards to thank for that)? I just don’t see L.J. being an elite back anymore. The wheels seem to be falling off, the team is young, the line is no longer dominant, and he’s got the speedy Jamaal Charles looking to steal carries from him.
Ryan Grant: Sorry Green Bay, but Aaron Rodgers is not Brett Favre. Teams will focus more on the run now and force GB and Rodgers to beat them with the pass. I just don’t see Grant dominating like he did last year without the presence of the great passing game.
Ronnie Brown: Guess who’s back? Back again? Ricky’s back, Ricky’s back, Ricky’s back! Yes, Ricky Williams is here to resurrect his career and kill Brown’s fantasy value. Before Brown got hurt last year, he was the best RB in fantasy football. Now he’ll have to settle for splitting carries with Williams. There are even rumors that the Dolphins are trying to trade Brown. YIKES!
Willie Parker: Another one who’s going to lose carries and, more importantly, goal line carries. I can see him scoring early, but as the season wears on Rashard Mendenhall should likely take all the goal line carries. You’ll have to hope that FWP can break some long ones!
Edgerrin James: I think this is it. You’ve had a great career my friend. Unfortunately for you, I think your time of being a dominant or even effective NFL back are over.

Sleepers:
Steve Slaton: Someone has to emerge from the Houston backfield and claim the starting job and Slaton is the obvious candidate to do so. As a true breakaway threat who I felt was underrated out of college, Slaton has impressed in the preseason as he has received more carries. Look for him to take over once he’s been given his shot.
Thomas Jones: Given a competent offensive line, this guy can play (think back to the Bears’ Super Bowl season in 2006). I was high on him last year as he was going to be the featured back for the Jets. Unfortunately last year, we’ll just say, was not his year. This year Jones gets a much improved offensive line and a quarterback by the name of Brett Favre. Favre’s ability to stretch the field for the Jets should open up the running game for Jones and allow him to be extremely productive.
DeAngelo Williams: Everyone was down on him this year and admittedly so was I, but thus far, he looks excellent in the preseason. Jonathan Stewart’s injury gave Williams one last chance and he both literally and figuratively ran with it. Williams will be a great late round pick and could be used as trade bait before he starts splitting carries.
Ricky Williams: Guess who’s back? Back again? Ricky’s back, Ricky’s back, Ricky’s back! Williams will get most of the carries at the beginning of the year but unfortunately will lose some to Brown as the year goes on. Play him the first few weeks and if Brown starts looking good and taking carries, trade him while he still has value.
Ryan Torain: They say he’s healing very well and should be back by week 6. No matter how good Selvin Young looks, Torain will make a name for himself by week 7 or week 8.

Wide Receivers:
I love drafting the WRs. They are the playmakers of the NFL and, in PPR, the key to any league championship.

Studs:
Randy Moss: “Mossed” - (1) to make a terrific catch in football; usually jumping/leaping is involved; as if randy moss was the receiver; (2) to get owned or dominated in such a manner that Chuck Norris would be proud. Moss is so good, journalists created a word for the way he torches defensive backs. The best part of it all is that although he is in his 11th year, physically it’s more like his 8th after the few years he took off in Oakland!
Terrell Owens: A model of consistency for fantasy WRs. The guy flat out produces week in and week out. In the rare instance that he doesn’t, he’ll cry about it and it won’t happen again.
Andre Johnson: Johnson was simply dominant when he played last year. This year he and Schaub are both healthy. Plus, Johnson has a proven group of WRs around him so other teams cannot key on him. If he stays healthy this year, which I believe he will, watch out. He could be right there with Moss and Owens for most points by a WR. Look to get excellent value for him in round 3.
Braylon Edwards: Edwards is a playmaker and I still regret trading him away last year in week 1 for pretty much nothing (and also cut Anderson… one of my many sleeper losses). His numbers should be similar to last year’s.
Wes Welker: The guy lives in the slot and you cannot find a better slot receiver in the game right now. He gets open and makes people miss. With Brady as his QB, Moss stretching the defense, and Jabar Gaffney and Chad Jackson emerging as viable #3s, look for Welker to break the century mark again for receptions, which is huge in a PPR league.
Marques Colston: Much like Owens, Colston is a model of fantasy consistency. I think Jeremy Shockey will help both Colston’s numbers and his health as teams will no longer be able to roll coverage his way. His stats will be much like they were last year, though I believe that Shockey’s presence will prevent them from improving. I’m sure though, that you’ll be happy with the same numbers.
Torry Holt: Holt played hurt last year and he still excelled. This year SJAX, Bulger, and the starting offensive line are all healthy. Holt himself says that he is felling better than ever. I expect big things from Holt again this year.

Duds:
Plaxico Burress: Right now you’re thinking, “This guy’s supposed to be a Giants fan?!?!?!” Yes, I am and that’s precisely why I’m not as high on Plaxico as everyone else is. Don’t get me wrong, he’ll have a good year, and he plays best in big games, but I don’t believe he should be drafted too high. Last year, there was arguably no one, except for Moss, that was playing better than Burress early on in the season. Blame it on injuries, his contract situation, or whatever, but Burress was not as dominant in the second half (prior to the playoffs). Coming into this year, all those questions remain - the knee, ankle, contract - and the Giants have a nice group of WRs to throw the ball to should Burress be limited due to injury.
Steve Smith: Smith, like Burress, is on my list because I think others are reaching too high to draft him. He’ll have a HUGE game and then be quiet for the next two. Moreover, he is facing a suspension and is often an injury-risk (hamstrings, knees, legs, etc). Smith does have Delhomme back but we don’t know what to expect from him after returning from Tommy John surgery.
Lee Evans: I have never been high on Evans. Whenever I’ve watched him he’d make a big play here and there, but that’s where he’s gets most of his stats. He makes a few big plays, but isn’t consistant enough to rely on as a starting fantasy receiver. I don’t see him being a force that everyone else thinks he is. Also, the rookie, James Hardy, should steal a lot of opportunities inside the red zone from Evans.
Javon Walker: He had to be talked out of retirement by Al Davis. That is all you need to know. STAY AWAY. You have been warned.
Dwayne Bowe: I was happy to have Bowe last year and package him for Winslow, but he just doesn’t do it for me. Bowe has no QB and it is only his second year in the league. He’s not a complete WR yet, so don’t reach for him.
Hines Ward: Like Harrison passed the torch to Wayne in Indianapolis, I think Ward is going to pass the torch to Santonio Holmes. Additionally, the team drafted Limas Sweed as a red zone target - the area where Ward has traditionally dominated throughout his career. Look for Ward’s numbers to begin to dip as he loses looks to each.

Sleepers:
I love sleeper WRS because I usually get them right. Through smart drafting and free agent pick-ups last year, I nabbed Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, and Santonio Holmes. So who do I like this year?
Vincent Jackson: The last time I heard so many rumblings about a player, it was about Brandon Marshall and look what he’s become. Vincent Jackson is dominating in the preseason, and with an injured Antonio Gates, an aging Chris Chambers, and an established connection with Rivers, I think this is the year he finally breaks out. He should be a steal late in the draft.
Calvin Johnson: As Randy Moss “Mosses” the competition, so too will Johnson need a word of his own to describe how he rules the field. This is the year when C.J. breaks out and lives up to the lofty expectations coming out of college.
Jerricho Cotchery: I think people are catching on… but get him while you can. All words out of NY say that he and Favre are connecting. He will definitely be Favre’s #1 option and eclipse Laveranues Coles (currently injured) as the Jets #1 WR this year. He has talent and size and now he finally has the QB to become a top-20 WR.
Ted Ginn Jr.: Never thought I’d say that Chad Pennington’s arm would actually help a team, but that’s exactly what he does for the ‘phins. Ginn is the #1 WR in Miami and he is having a solid camp. Consider him a deep sleeper who will provide some solid games throughout the year as a WR and also as a KR/PR.
DeSean Jackson: Another deep sleeper, but with the injuries to Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown he’s become McNabb’s best receiver during the preseason. Plus, the guy is a playmaker. I think he will have some big games while Curtis is out but I would try to move him when Curtis returns as I think his playing time will decrease.
Jerry Porter: Porter Will be David Garrard’s #1 target in Jacksonville. He has proven to be a solid receiver before and we saw what happened the last time a WR left Oakland. While he’s no Moss I think he’s going to have a solid year.

TE
While many people may not stress this position, I think it is very important. This year, the top eight or so TEs are solid. After that, it is all a crap shoot. I would suggest waiting to select a TE a little longer than usual this year, as the top few are not much better than the others. But as soon as one TE gets selected, jump on your TE pick.

Studs:
Kellen Winslow: The knee injury will always scare me a little but the guy can play. He’s a huge part of that offense and Anderson loves to get him the ball as much as he does Edwards. He’s the most athletic TE I’ve ever seen play and he plays like an oversized WR. Once again, he’ll catch a ton of balls which is huge for PPR leagues.
Dallas Clark: All Clark did last year was catch TDs. OK, so maybe not just TDs, but you get the point. This year they are going to put him in the slot where he is going to get much more looks and balls thrown his way. I like the upside and potential - especially because you can wait to draft him longer than you can wait for a Winslow or Gates.
Jeremy Shockey: Let’s see… everyone says he’s injury prone and that he was run out of New York. Do you think he has a chip on his shoulder? All I have to say is, “thank God the Giants don’t play him this year.” I think he’s due for a monster year, as long as he doesn’t hurt himself trying to kill someone else.
Antonio Gates: I, like many others, think he is due for a down year because of his injuries and the pending emergence of Vincent Jackson. With that said, a down year for him is still a great year when compared to his past performances. Just don’t reach for him as high as you normally would and you will get fair return.

Duds:
Tony Gonzalez: Yes, Tony Gonzalez. I am just not high on him and really wasn’t last year either. The Kansas City offense isn’t very good at all and he’s getting up there in age. One of these years he’s going to lose that step and I think it is getting very close to that time.
Vernon Davis: Davis is an athletic and physical presence but he can never translate those skills into being an effective player. I don’t see that changing much this year, especially with all the talk about TEs not faring well in Mike Martz’s system. Maybe, Martz can work him into the playbook down the road, but it won’t happen this year.
Alge Crumpler: Once a stud fantasy TE, Crumpler just doesn’t seem to have much left in his tank. I think Tennessee will try to get him the ball. I just don’t see Crumpler doing much with it.

Sleepers:
Dustin Keller: Gotta love the athletic TEs. Plus, Favre loves to throw to his TEs and he’s never had one as athletic in his career (sorry Bubba Franks). I think he’ll perform like a Heath Miller this year in fantasy. His numbers won’t be as high, but they should improve as the year progresses.
Greg Olsen: Shockey, Winslow, Olsen. It’s only a matter of time. I think the Bears will focus more on getting him the ball, especially with their lack of talent at WR. Olsen should post decent numbers this year, and if he ever gets a QB he’ll jump to the top of the TE ranks.
Owen Daniels: The guy is just waiting to break out. There is so much talent at WR on that team that he should find it much easier to get open. I think he is a solid late round pick and the best of the sleepers on my list.
Ben Utecht: Utecht should be good for a few TDs this year. Palmer recognizes that he finally has a decent option at tight end and they seem to be developing a chemistry. While Utecht should not get drafted, he should make for a nice waiver wire pick-up and be a good bye-week play.

Kickers:
Kickers are all a crap shoot for me, so I’m skipping these rankings. Sorry to disappoint those of you who were so eagerly awaiting my selections. Play the matchups and look for whichever kicker’s offense can’t seal the deal.

Defense
You know what they say, “Defense wins championships!” How ‘bout the New York Football Giants! Don’t sleep on your defense this year as there are some dominant ones available but after they’re gone you’re stuck playing the matchup game.
Top Ten:
1. Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks returned every starter to an already outstanding defense and, with all the question marks on offense, they will have to rely even more on the defense.
2. San Diego Chargers: The Chargers defense would be #1 except for Shawne Merriman’s knee questions. How about Antonio Cromartie, though? I know it is still too early but he could be the next Deion Sanders. He sure showed some flashes of greatness last year.
3. Minnesota Vikings: We saw what the Giants defensive line did to the Patriots and the rest of the NFL last year on the way to the Super Bowl. While Minnesota’s pass rush isn’t as great as the Giants’ pass rush, the addition of Jared Allen will certainly help. Minnesota should be a very good pick this year.
4. New York Giants: Super Bowl champs. Justin Tuck slides very nicely into the hole Michael Strahan left. Furthermore, the Giants seemed to fill all of their other holes very well. Steve Spagnuolo is back and the rookie Kenny Phillips sounds like he’s the real deal.
5. Steelers: The Steel Curtain just keeps reloading and should once again be a force for opposing offenses.
6. Dallas Cowboys: When Pacman, I mean Adam Jones is your #3 corner and you use your first round pick to select another cornerback, it is going to be very tough for teams to throw on you. DeMarcus Ware leads a tough linebacker corps and the Cowboy pass rush will be very successful this year, as well.
7. Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs always seem to have a great defense and this year will be no different.
8. Packers: The Pack has a very good and very aggressive defense which they will rely on more this year. I think they will rise to the occasion.
9. Colts: The Colts are relying heavily on Dwight Freeney’s return from injury. Hopefully, for their sake, he returns at 100%. Ifr both Freeney and Bob Sanders remain healthy, they will be a premier D.
10. Da Bears: Chicago looked awful against the Niners in week 3 of the preseason, but I think they will get it together. Devin Hester is always dangerous and increases this team’s fantasy value trememdously.

That’s all she wrote for this preview. My last tip would be draft RB, WR, WR in PPR leagues. That formula never seems to fail! Enjoy your drafts and good luck fantasy footballin’ this year.

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