Start & SitNovember 19, 2009

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Week 11: Jones-Drew Ranks First, Despite “The Kneeldown” - 5 comments

By Nick Hopkins

Welcome back to the Cafe’s Start & Sit for Week 11! Before we get into the rankings, just a quick run-down of the happenings last week. By now, everyone’s heard about Manning and Brady’s duel in Indianapolis, a game that ended with a questionable 4th down call and a last second Colts touchdown. Fantasy-wise, Manning, Brady, Moss and Wayne won a lot of games for their owners on Sunday night.

Other big scorers included running backs Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson, who both went over 120 yards and two TDs. (Maurice Jones-Drew would have ended up in that group as well, but he drove a stake through fantasy owners’ hearts when he knelt down on the 1-yard line… I’m not bitter though!) Representing the passing game, Donovan McNabb put up 450 yards through the air, and Sidney Rice racked up over 200 yards receiving.

Now, let’s see who our rankers think will have the biggest games this week!

1Drew BreesNOat TB96.00
2Matt SchaubHOUTEN91.60
3Kurt WarnerARIat STL91.40
4Peyton ManningINDat BAL90.60
5Ben RoethlisbergerPITat KC88.00
6Tom BradyNENYJ87.60
7Aaron RodgersGBSF86.40
8Donovan McNabbPHIat CHI83.00
9Brett FavreMINSEA80.20
10Carson PalmerCINat OAK79.00
T-10Philip RiversSDat DEN79.00
12Tony RomoDALWAS76.60
13Eli ManningNYGATL76.00
14Matt RyanATLat NYG71.20
15Joe FlaccoBALIND70.40
T-15Jay CutlerCHIPHI70.40
17Matt HasselbeckSEAat MIN68.60
18David GarrardJACBUF64.20
19Jake DelhommeCARMIA63.80
20Matthew StaffordDETCLE62.94
21Brady QuinnCLEat DET62.80
22Marc BulgerSTLARI61.20
T-22Jason CampbellWASat DAL61.20
24Vince YoungTENat HOU60.20
25Kyle OrtonDENSD60.00
T-25Alex SmithSFat GB60.00
27Matt CasselKCPIT57.80
28Chad HenneMIAat CAR56.80
29Mark SanchezNYJat NE46.20
30Bruce GradkowskiOAKCIN44.80
31Ryan FitzpatrickBUFat JAC44.20
32Josh FreemanTBNO40.40

Start: Kurt Warner, Cardinals. Warner has not seen the drop off in production that many people called for this year – he’s thrown at least one touchdown in every game this year, and at least two in all but three games. Expect a big game from Warner against the Rams this week. St. Louis ranks 25th in the NFL in pass defense, and Warner has historically done very well visiting the stadium that he called home in the prime of his career.
Start: Aaron Rodgers, Packers. I know, I’m really going out on a limb this week… Rodgers is not only on pace for over 4,000 yards and 30 passing TDs, but he has also run for over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns so far this season. His matchup this week, San Francisco, looked like they could be an imposing defense earlier in the year, but has since faded. The Niners did pick off Jay Cutler five times last week, but its not the first time Cutler has been plagued by interceptions. San Fran ranks 29th in the NFL against the pass, so start Rodgers with confidence.
Sit: David Garrard, Jaguars. Garrard is middle of the road as fantasy quarterbacks go, worth a start here and there. The Bills are actually a tough matchup for QBs. Buffalo ranks 9th in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 200 yards per game. The Bills have also given up only 7 passing touchdowns to 16 interceptions. The Jaguars will rely on MoJo Drew again this week. Leave Garrard on your bench.
Sit: Marc Bulger, Rams. Bulger had his best game of the season last week, throwing for almost 300 yards and 2 touchdowns. Can he do it again? Maybe… but he is relying on young receivers and a shaky offensive line. Consistency is hardly something that can be assumed here. The Cardinals aren’t great against the pass, but they do have some guys who can rush the passer, which could give that offensive line problems.

RankRunning BacksTeamOpponentAverage
1Maurice Jones-DrewJACBUF95.40
2Adrian PetersonMINSEA94.60
3Chris JohnsonTENat HOU94.40
4Ray RiceBALIND87.00
5DeAngelo WilliamsCARMIA83.40
6Steven JacksonSTLARI82.60
7Pierre ThomasNOat TB81.40
8Ricky WilliamsMIAat CAR79.60
9Frank GoreSFat GB79.20
10Rashard MendenhallPITat KC78.00
11Kevin SmithDETCLE76.80
T-11Brandon JacobsNYGATL76.80
13Thomas JonesNYJat NE76.00
14Reggie BushNOat TB73.40
15Beanie WellsARIat STL72.80
16Ryan GrantGBSF72.60
T-16Joseph AddaiINDat BAL72.60
18Tim HightowerARIat STL72.00
19Ahmad BradshawNYGATL71.11
20Marion BarberDALWAS71.10
21Bernard ScottCINat OAK69.60
T-21Steve SlatonHOUTEN69.60
23Matt ForteCHIPHI69.20
24Knowshon MorenoDENSD69.00
25Jonathan StewartCARMIA68.60
26Marshawn LynchBUFat JAC67.80
27Jamal LewisCLEat DET66.20
T-27LaDanian TomlinsonSDat DEN66.20
29LeSean McCoyPHIat CHI66.00
30Laurence MaroneyNENYJ65.20
31Mike BellNOat TB64.00
32Cadillac WilliamsTBNO63.00
33Felix JonesDALWAS60.60
T-33Ryan MoatsHOUTEN60.60
35Correll BuckhalterDENSD58.86
36Fred JacksonBUFat JAC58.80
37Chester TaylorMINSEA58.00
38Ladell BettsWASat DAL57.40
39Justin ForsettSEAat MIN57.00
40Donald BrownINDat BAL56.92
41Jason SnellingATLat NYG56.60
T-41Darren SprolesSDat DEN56.60
43Maurice MorrisDETCLE55.60
44Jamaal CharlesKCPIT55.20
45Shonn GreeneNYJat NE54.80
46Tashard ChoiceDALWAS54.60
47Michael BushOAKCIN54.40
48Darren McFaddenOAKCIN52.08
49Justin FargasOAKCIN51.80
T-49Derrick WardTBNO51.80
51Kevin FaulkNENYJ49.60
52LenDale WhiteTENat HOU47.00
53Cedric BensonCINat OAK46.12
54Chris BrownHOUTEN43.60
55Sammy MorrisNENYJ43.50
56Willie ParkerPITat KC41.80
57Mewelde MoorePITat KC41.20
58Kolby SmithKCPIT40.00
59Jerome HarrisonCLEat DET39.40
60Glen CoffeeSFat GB37.00
61Willis McGaheeBALIND32.40
62Jerious NorwoodATLat NYG30.50
63LeRon McClainBALIND30.20
64Ahman GreenGBSF30.00
65Rashard JenningsJACBUF24.00
66Brian LeonardCINat OAK23.00
67Adrian PetersonCHIPHI19.40
T-67Louis RankinSEAat MIN19.40
69BenJarvus Green-EllisNENYJ17.60
T-69Samkon GadoSTLARI17.60

Start: Kevin Smith, Lions. The sophomore running back for Detroit has a lot of talent, but hasn’t had a lot of room to showcase it this season. He’s also had some nagging injury problems that may have hurt his production. But this week is a great chance for Smith to put together a good game, and hopefully find the end zone for the first time since Week 4. The Browns have one of the worst run defenses in the league (checking in at 30th overall) so at the very least Smith should manage a decent yardage total to go along with a few catches.
Start: Reggie Bush, Saints. Bush has been one of the hardest players to predict this season. Despite his scat-back nature, he’s had a nose for the end zone (5 rushing touchdowns, 1 receiving). Last week was a breakout game of sorts for Reggie, as he scored twice and had his highest yardage total of the season against the Rams. There’s no reason not to expect another good game this week, against a team that is even worse against the run (Tampa Bay, 31st overall).
Sit: Justin Forsett, Seahawks. Forsett broke onto the fantasy scene last week with 123 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals. With Julius Jones out, Forsett will get the start again this week. However, he will be matched up against one of the league’s best rush defenses in Minnesota (94.6 yards per game, 2 TDs allowed all season). While certainly worth a waiver claim for future weeks, he is not a great start in Week 11.
Sit: Jamaal Charles, Chiefs. The parallels between Forsett and Charles are many. Both started the season as backups, both had 100-yard games last week, and both will be rewarded by very tough run defenses the next week. Charles’ opponent, the Steelers, still have far and away the best run defense in the league yardage-wise, and like Minnesota, they have allowed only two rushing touchdowns all year.

RankWide ReceiversTeamOpponentAverage
1Andre JohnsonHOUTEN95.20
2Larry FitzgeraldARIat STL94.40
3Marques ColstonNOat TB89.00
4Reggie WayneINDat BAL88.00
5Randy MossNENYJ87.40
6Calvin JohnsonDETCLE86.70
7Hines WardPITat KC84.20
8Anquan BoldinARIat STL84.00
9Sidney RiceMINSEA83.40
10Vincent JacksonSDat DEN82.60
11Wes WelkerNENYJ82.00
12DeSean JacksonPHIat CHI81.80
13Steve SmithNYGATL80.20
14Chad OchocincoCINat OAK79.40
15Steve SmithCARMIA79.00
16Roddy WhiteATLat NYG78.80
17Donald DriverGBSF78.60
18Santonio HolmesPITat KC77.40
19Percy HarvinMINSEA76.40
20Brandon MarshallDENSD76.20
21Mike Sims-WalkerJACBUF75.60
22Greg JenningsGBSF74.40
23Derrick MasonBALIND74.20
24Miles AustinDALWAS73.60
25Lee EvansBUFat JAC72.40
26T.J. HoushmandzadehSEAat MIN71.20
27Nate BurlesonSEAat MIN70.40
28Terrell OwensBUFat JAC69.00
29Kevin WalterHOUTEN68.60
30Mario ManninghamNYGATL68.40
T-30Santana MossWASat DAL68.40
32Steve BreastonARIat STL68.00
T-32Jerricho CotcheryNYJat NE68.00
34Bernard BerrianMINSEA67.60
35Mike WallacePITat KC67.20
36Devin HesterCHIPHI66.20
37Devery HendersonNOat TB65.80
38Robert MeachemNOat TB65.40
39Hakeem NicksNYGATL65.20
40Mohamed MassaquoiCLEat DET65.00
T-40Donnie AverySTLARI65.00
42Jeremy MaclinPHIat CHI64.80
43Braylon EdwardsNYJat NE63.80
44Bryant JohnsonDETCLE63.00
45Michael CrabtreeSFat GB62.40
46Austin CollieINDat BAL61.60
47Roy WilliamsDALWAS61.20
48Mark ClaytonBALIND60.60
49Nate WashingtonTENat HOU60.40
50Pierre GarconINDat BAL59.60
51Antonio BryantTBNO59.32
52Torry HoltJACBUF59.20
53Eddie RoyalDENSD59.00
54Johnny KnoxCHIPHI58.40
55Josh MorganSFat GB56.40
56Laveranues ColesCINat OAK56.20
T-56Patrick CraytonDALWAS56.20
58Earl BennettCHIPHI56.00
59Muhsin MuhammadCARMIA55.60
60James JonesGBSF55.40
61Chris ChambersKCPIT55.20
62Malcom FloydSDat DEN54.20
63Davone BessMIAat CAR53.00
64Michael ClaytonTBNO52.60
65Brandon GibsonSTLARI52.00
66Michael JenkinsATLat NYG51.40
67Kenny BrittTENat HOU51.00
68Josh CribbsCLEat DET50.40
T-68Chansi StuckeyCLEat DET50.40
T-68Deion BranchSEAat MIN50.40
71Jacoby JonesHOUTEN50.20
72Ted GinnMIAat CAR50.00
73David ClowneyNYJat NE49.20
74Danny AmendolaSTLARI49.00
75Mark BradleyKCPIT48.80
76Antwaan Randle ElWASat DAL48.40
77Louis MurphyOAKCIN45.00
78Dennis NorthcuttDETCLE44.80
T-78Sam AikenNENYJ44.80
80Andre CaldwellCINat OAK44.40
T-80Mike ThomasJACBUF44.40
82Jason AvantPHIat CHI43.40
83Darrius Heyward-BeyOAKCIN42.20
84Isaac BruceSFat GB41.40
85Domenik HixonNYGATL41.20
86Lance MooreNOat TB39.40
87Mike FurreyCLEat DET37.80
88Malcom KellyWASat DAL37.60
89Greg CamarilloMIAat CAR34.80
90Chaz SchilensOAKCIN34.38
91Early DoucetARIat STL34.20
92Johnnie Lee HigginsOAKCIN34.00
93Kelley WashingtonBALIND33.40
94Devin ThomasWASat DAL32.80
95Brandon StokleyDENSD32.20
T-95Jason HillSFat GB32.20
97Brian HartlineMIAat CAR31.20
98Josh ReedBUFat JAC30.60
99Limas SweedPITat KC29.80
100Lance LongKCPIT29.00

Start: Calvin Johnson, Lions. Megatron’s owners were probably happy to see what would usually be considered a relatively modest game from the big wideout (8 catches, 84 yards). It seems that Johnson is healthy, and Matthew Stafford is finally healthy as well. This should bode well for Calvin as the season progresses. His owners can finally afford to start him again. Not to mention he has a pretty good matchup this week against the Browns.
Start: Steve Smith, Giants. As the Giants have faltered in their last four games, Smith’s numbers have dipped as well. However, despite the drop-off in yards and touchdowns, Smith has still managed six catches a game in these four losses, and still appears to be Eli Manning’s No. 1 target. The Giants have a good matchup this week against Atlanta’s struggling pass defense. This is a game that the Giants cannot afford to lose. I’m willing to bet Manning looks for Steve Smith early and often.
Sit: Devin Hester, Bears. Hester has a tough matchup this week against the Eagles. Asante Samuel has done a good job shutting down #1 receivers this season. And while Jay Cutler’s interceptions don’t directly affect Hester, they do show that perhaps the Bears’ franchise quarterback is not quite comfortable. The Eagles’ strong pass rush (29 sacks, tied 2nd in NFL) will try to make sure he stays that way.
Sit: Braylon Edwards, Jets. While Edwards has had some decent games yardage-wise since coming over from Cleveland, he has only caught more than three passes once in the past four weeks. With Jerricho Cotchery returning from injury and looking good there will be even fewer catches to go around in New York. The Jets also play a tough pass defense this week in New England.

RankTight EndsTeamOpponentAverage
1Dallas ClarkINDat BAL89.20
2Tony GonzalezATLat NYG88.20
3Vernon DavisSFat GB85.80
4Brent CelekPHIat CHI83.00
5Antonio GatesSDat DEN81.00
6Greg OlsenCHIPHI79.40
7Jeremy ShockeyNOat TB77.20
8Jason WittenDALWAS76.60
T-8Visanthe ShiancoeMINSEA76.60
10Heath MillerPITat KC76.40
11John CarlsonSEAat MIN75.40
T-11Kellen WinslowTBNO75.40
13Zach MillerOAKCIN72.20
14Kevin BossNYGATL69.20
15Dustin KellerNYJat NE68.60
16Tony SchefflerDENSD67.60
17Brandon PettigrewDETCLE67.00
18Robert RoyalCLEat DET66.00
19Todd HeapBALIND65.20
20Fred DavisWASat DAL63.60
21Stephen SpachARIat STL63.00
22Donald LeeGBSF62.00
23Joel DreessenHOUTEN61.80
24Dante RosarioCARMIA61.60
25Ben WatsonNENYJ61.40
26Marcedes LewisJACBUF59.20
27Bo ScaifeTENat HOU58.80
28Sean RyanKCPIT52.80
29Jermichael FinleyGBSF52.52
30Derek FineBUFat JAC52.00
31Daniel CoatsCINat OAK51.60
32Randy McMichaelSTLARI43.20
33Martellus BennettDALWAS34.40
34Anthony FasanoMIAat CAR33.20
35Joey HaynosMIAat CAR23.80
36Daniel FellsSTLARI21.80
37Shawn NelsonBUFat JAC20.80
38Alge CrumplerTENat HOU18.20
39Daniel GrahamDENSD11.80
40James CaseyHOUTEN10.20

Start: Jason Witten, Cowboys. As a Redskins fan, I can tell you that Witten always seems to kill us, especially in Dallas. The Redskins like to take away the deep pass, and will probably be especially worried about that after last week’s first half debacle. This often leaves Witten open across the middle. Witten has no problem beating linebackers, or even safeties in coverage.
Sit: Donald Lee, Packers. Lee wasn’t exactly a huge part of Green Bay’s offense to start with, but it looks like fellow tight end Jermichael Finley is practicing and could be rejoining the Packers on the field this week. This means even fewer looks for Lee, especially in the red zone.

1Ryan LongwellMINSEA91.40
2David AkersPHIat CHI86.00
3John CarneyNOat TB84.20
4Stephen GostkowskiNENYJ83.60
T-4Lawrence TynesNYGATL83.60
6Neil RackersARIat STL82.40
7Mason CrosbyGBSF82.00
T-7Rob BironasTENat HOU82.00
9Kris BrownHOUTEN81.80
10Nick FolkDALWAS81.60
T-10Jeff ReedPITat KC81.60
T-10Nate KaedingSDat DEN81.60
13Matt StoverINDat BAL79.60
14Matt PraterDENSD77.00
15Rian LindellBUFat JAC75.40
16Jason HansonDETCLE73.40
17Robbie GouldCHIPHI72.80
18Shayne GrahamCINat OAK72.20
19Jason ElamATLat NYG71.40
20John KasayCARMIA71.20
21Billy CundiffBALIND70.80
22Dan CarpenterMIAat CAR70.60
23Jay FeelyNYJat NE69.40
24Shaun SuishamWASat DAL68.40
25Phil DawsonCLEat DET68.20
26Josh ScobeeJACBUF68.00
27Olindo MareSEAat MIN67.40
28Joe NedneySFat GB66.80
29Josh BrownSTLARI66.40
30Sebastian JanikowskiOAKCIN62.60
31Connor BarthTBNO59.40
32Ryan SuccopKCPIT59.00

Start: Shayne Graham, Bengals. He’s only ranked 18th on our list, but after mentioning him as a “Sit” last week I feel I owe Shayne an apology. Graham made four field goals last week (the first time this season he’s made more than one in a game).  This week he plays the Raiders, a team that has allowed the second most field goals in the NFL this season. Sure, you could maybe do better than Graham this week, but you could do a lot worse as well.
Sit: Joe Nedney, 49ers. Nedney has only managed three field goals in his last four games. The Packers have allowed only seven field goals this season, second lowest in the NFL. Nedney is not a good start this week.

1SteelersPITat KC91.80
2SaintsNOat TB89.00
3EaglesPHIat CHI86.80
5BengalsCINat OAK81.40
11CardinalsARIat STL75.00
12DolphinsMIAat CAR74.40
1449ersSFat GB70.80
15ChargersSDat DEN69.80
T-17ColtsINDat BAL68.80
19RedskinsWASat DAL68.40
20BrownsCLEat DET65.60
21JetsNYJat NE65.20
22FalconsATLat NYG64.80
T-23TitansTENat HOU64.60
26SeahawksSEAat MIN64.20
27BillsBUFat JAC64.00

Start: Cincinnati Bengals. I’ve picked up the Bengals myself in a few leagues this week. Cincy’s defense looked strong last week, holding the Steelers to just 12 points. The Bengals are second in the NFL in points allowed per game (16.3) and this week they play the bumbling Raiders. Oakland is second to last in the NFL in points per game at 9.8.
Sit: Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens made their fantasy owners very happy with their shutout of the Browns last week (and a defensive touchdown to boot!). But the Browns and the Colts are very different teams. Not only are the Colts top 5 in both yards and points scored, but Baltimore always seems to have trouble with Peyton Manning’s offense. Baltimore’s defense has to be considered a very risky start this week.

Nick Hopkins is a Cafe member who has been contributing to the Start & Sit since 2006. He posts on the Cafe under the name terpfan. R.J. White is a fantasy blogger at the sports site FanHouse. Check out his work both here and there, and feel free to talk to him in the forums, where he posts under the name daullaz.
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5 Responses to “Week 11: Jones-Drew Ranks First, Despite “The Kneeldown””

  1. User avatar moochman says:

    I disagree with calling for Kevin Smith to start. The Browns D is better than earlier in the year and gigantic head case Shawn Rogers will be looking to get some measure of revenge on the Lions, his former team. Smith has seen his role change with the Lions over the last few games as Brown and Morris have taken some plays away. He should have a good game, but I would curb your enthusiasm.

  2. User avatar Navyseal says:

    Kinda strange seeing Scheffler ranked so low (16t) since his biggest game of the year was a 101/1TD performance vs these very same Chargers a little over a month ago… nothing is certain obviously, but I would suggest that Scheffler should at least be in the top-10 @ TE this week in the hopes that Denver can exploit those same seams they found against S.D. in their first meeting. It’s also a division game, and if Orton can’t go, then it would make sense that Simms utilizes Scheffler as his safety valve at the very least… just sayin’…

  3. User avatar markulous says:

    I agree with Moochman. I’m starting LT over Kevin Smith.

  4. User avatar thereason13 says:

    moochman i agree about the browns…i picked them up against the lions this week. there defense is good and scores fantasy points. i suspect they will cause a fumble or a pick and return it for a TD.

  5. jameeman says:

    Your article is comprehensive and enjoyable. Overall, it’s an excellent measuring tool for prospective value.

    I take issue with the ranking of both the Giant D and the Viking D.
    Certainly Michael Turner’s absence is a boon to Big Blue and Matt Ryan isn’t recording the kinds of games he did last season. However, MLB Antonio Pierce is now a memory and the Secondary is ghastly… Tony Gonzalez could easily put on a pass catching clinic, especially with Roddy White drawing most of the DBs attention.

    Likewise, my beloved Minny’ Vikes are generally stout against the run but their pass defense is absolutely horrendous. Sadly, the ‘Hawk strength is the passing game. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Hasselbeck hang 225/2 against the porous Viking Secondary.

    really nice work nick-


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