Start & SitNovember 26, 2009


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Week 12: Turkey Day Special - 11 comments

By Nick Hopkins

Alright folks, thanks for bearing with us. Due to turkey-related responsibilities there was a slight delay in the commentary this week. I hope everyone is having a good Thanksgiving so far, and that you all got your last minute lineup changes in this morning. Now we can start looking ahead to what the weekend might have in store…

RankQuarterbacksTeamOpponentAverage
1Aaron RodgersGBat DET96.67
2Peyton ManningINDat HOU89.67
3Philip RiversSDKC87.00
4Drew BreesNONE85.67
5Tom BradyNEat NO84.00
6Carson PalmerCINCLE83.33
7Kurt WarnerARIat TEN82.67
8Matt SchaubHOUIND82.00
T-8Brett FavreMINCHI82.00
10Matt RyanATLTB78.67
11Ben RoethlisbergerPITat BAL76.37
12Donovan McNabbPHIWAS76.33
13Matt HasselbeckSEAat STL75.33
14Jay CutlerCHIat MIN74.67
15Tony RomoDALOAK74.33
16David GarrardJACat SF68.67
17Eli ManningNYGat DEN67.67
18Vince YoungTENARI64.67
19Alex SmithSFJAC64.33
20Joe FlaccoBALPIT63.33
T-20Matt CasselKCat SD63.33
22Josh FreemanTBat ATL59.00
23Kyle OrtonDENNYG58.67
24Jason CampbellWASat PHI58.33
25Mark SanchezNYJCAR54.33
26Kyle BollerSTLSEA54.00
27Bruce GradkowskiOAKat DAL51.33
28Brady QuinnCLEat CIN51.00
29Chad HenneMIAat BUF50.33
30Jake DelhommeCARat NYJ49.67
31Daunte CulpepperDETGB47.92
32Ryan FitzpatrickBUFMIA35.33
33Matt LeinartARIat TEN8.53
34Matthew StaffordDETGB7.38
35Chris SimmsDENNYG5.00

 
Start: Carson Palmer, Bengals. Palmer has not thrown a touchdown in his last two games, much to the chagrin of his fantasy owners (although he did run for two scores last week). However, I expect this week’s game against the Browns to be a return to form for the Bengals’ passing game. Cleveland is 26th in the league in passing defense and has allowed 15 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions.
 
Start: Matt Ryan, Falcons. Ryan did not throw an interception last week, for the first time since Week 3. The rookie QB also threw for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns, making it his best game statistically since the Falcons stomped San Fransisco in Week 5. Ryan has a good matchup this week against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has allowed the third most passing touchdowns in the NFL this year (22).
 
Sit: Brady Quinn, Browns. I don’t think anyone expected a 300-yard, 4 touchdown game from Quinn last week. Not even against the Lions. I wouldn’t get too excited though, the Browns’ offense hasn’t been fixed overnight, and the Bengals secondary should prove a much tougher test this week.
 
Sit: Matt Cassel, Chiefs. Cassel had a nice game last week, leading the Chargers past the Steelers in over-time, and this is without his best receiver, Dwayne Bowe. I wouldn’t push your luck too far with this one though. The Chargers pass defense isn’t elite, but it is pretty good, and they have some play makers in the secondary. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie, for example, has three interceptions in his last four games.

RankRunning BacksTeamOpponentAverage
1Maurice Jones-DrewJACat SF90.67
2Chris JohnsonTENARI90.00
3Adrian PetersonMINCHI89.33
4Ricky WilliamsMIAat BUF86.33
5Steven JacksonSTLSEA83.67
6DeAngelo WilliamsCARat NYJ81.33
T-6Frank GoreSFJAC81.33
8Ryan GrantGBat DET81.00
9Thomas JonesNYJCAR80.67
10Joseph AddaiINDat HOU78.67
11Marion BarberDALOAK78.33
12Ray RiceBALPIT76.67
13LaDanian TomlinsonSDKC75.00
14Pierre ThomasNONE73.00
15Brandon JacobsNYGat DEN72.00
16Bernard ScottCINCLE69.00
17Laurence MaroneyNEat NO68.67
18Justin ForsettSEAat STL68.33
19Rashard MendenhallPITat BAL67.00
20Beanie WellsARIat TEN66.00
21Tim HightowerARIat TEN64.67
22Felix JonesDALOAK64.33
23Kevin SmithDETGB63.67
T-23Steve SlatonHOUIND63.67
T-23Cadillac WilliamsTBat ATL63.67
26Jonathan StewartCARat NYJ63.33
T-26Jamaal CharlesKCat SD63.33
28Knowshon MorenoDENNYG62.33
29Fred JacksonBUFMIA61.00
T-29LeSean McCoyPHIWAS61.00
31Donald BrownINDat HOU60.67
32Matt ForteCHIat MIN59.67
33Cedric BensonCINCLE58.55
34Tashard ChoiceDALOAK58.33
T-34Darren SprolesSDKC58.33
36Jason SnellingATLTB57.87
37Shonn GreeneNYJCAR57.33
38Mike BellNONE57.00
T-38Rock CartwrightWASat PHI57.00
40Marshawn LynchBUFMIA56.25
41Reggie BushNONE55.70
42Correll BuckhalterDENNYG52.33
43Derrick WardTBat ATL50.33
44Kevin FaulkNEat NO47.33
45Jamal LewisCLEat CIN47.00
46Michael BushOAKat DAL46.67
47Darren McFaddenOAKat DAL45.33
48Chester TaylorMINCHI44.00
49Kolby SmithKCat SD43.33
T-49Justin FargasOAKat DAL43.33
51Julius JonesSEAat STL41.70
52LenDale WhiteTENARI40.67
53Ryan MoatsHOUIND39.00
54Brian LeonardCINCLE37.67
55Maurice MorrisDETGB36.33
56Sammy MorrisNEat NO36.30
57Chris BrownHOUIND35.67
T-57Lex HilliardMIAat BUF35.67
T-57Mewelde MoorePITat BAL35.67
60Earnest GrahamTBat ATL31.00
61Danny WareNYGat DEN30.00
62Louis RankinSEAat STL28.67
63Michael TurnerATLTB27.97
64Chris JenningsCLEat CIN27.00
65Rashard JenningsJACat SF26.33
66Glen CoffeeSFJAC23.67
67Willis McGaheeBALPIT23.33

 
Start: Ricky Williams, Dolphins. Last week, Williams really took advantage of his new role as feature back due to Ronnie Brown’s injury. Ricky ran for 119 yards and two touchdowns, and also scored on a pass out of the backfield. He should be a great start again this week against a Bills’ defense that ranks 31st in the NFL against the run.
 
Start: Thomas Jones, Jets. Jones has been a dependable fantasy starter this year, as he has gone over 100 yards and/or scored in each of the Jets’ last seven games. I expect that streak to continue this week against Carolina. The Panthers are 26th in the league in run defense after being gashed by the aforementioned Ricky Williams last week in Charlotte.
 
Sit: Marshawn Lynch, Bills. It looks like Lynch will be able to play this weekend against Miami, but I would not expect much from him. The Bills’ runner has recorded fewer than 10 carries and 50 yards in each of his last three games. Fred Jackson is a viable option for Buffalo, and if Lynch’s shoulder injury bothers him, the Bills will likely keep him on the sideline for a good chunk of the game. Not to mention that the Dolphins run defense is ranked in the top half of the league.
 
Sit: Ryan Moats, Texans. Moats looked like a viable fantasy option for a minute there, but he has quickly slipped off the map. Moats did not even touch the ball last week, as the Texans turned back to Steve Slaton as their starter, and Chris Brown as the change of pace back. Moats is certainly not a fantasy option at this point.

RankWide ReceiversTeamOpponentAverage
1Larry FitzgeraldARIat TEN97.33
2Randy MossNEat NO89.67
3Reggie WayneINDat HOU89.00
4Andre JohnsonHOUIND88.33
5Vincent JacksonSDKC87.67
6Roddy WhiteATLTB86.67
7Wes WelkerNEat NO83.67
8Greg JenningsGBat DET83.00
9Chad OchocincoCINCLE82.00
T-9Mike Sims-WalkerJACat SF82.00
11Anquan BoldinARIat TEN81.33
12Sidney RiceMINCHI81.00
13Donald DriverGBat DET80.33
14Marques ColstonNONE79.33
T-14T.J. HoushmandzadehSEAat STL79.33
16Brandon MarshallDENNYG75.00
T-16Percy HarvinMINCHI75.00
T-16DeSean JacksonPHIWAS75.00
19Nate BurlesonSEAat STL74.67
20Steve SmithNYGat DEN72.33
21Hines WardPITat BAL71.67
T-21Michael CrabtreeSFJAC71.67
23Miles AustinDALOAK71.33
24Terrell OwensBUFMIA71.00
25Lee EvansBUFMIA69.67
T-25Devin HesterCHIat MIN69.67
27Derrick MasonBALPIT68.33
28Steve BreastonARIat TEN66.67
29Steve SmithCARat NYJ66.00
30Santonio HolmesPITat BAL65.67
T-30Malcom FloydSDKC65.67
32Bernard BerrianMINCHI65.00
T-32Donnie AverySTLSEA65.00
34Torry HoltJACat SF62.67
35Pierre GarconINDat HOU62.33
36Austin CollieINDat HOU61.67
37Kevin WalterHOUIND61.00
38Chris ChambersKCat SD60.67
39Josh MorganSFJAC60.33
40Jerricho CotcheryNYJCAR60.00
41Devery HendersonNONE59.33
T-41Nate WashingtonTENARI59.33
43Johnny KnoxCHIat MIN59.00
44Michael JenkinsATLTB58.67
T-44Robert MeachemNONE58.67
46Mario ManninghamNYGat DEN58.33
47Roy WilliamsDALOAK58.00
T-47Santana MossWASat PHI58.00
49Earl BennettCHIat MIN57.67
T-49Jeremy MaclinPHIWAS57.67
51Braylon EdwardsNYJCAR57.33
52James JonesGBat DET57.00
T-52Antonio BryantTBat ATL57.00
54Laveranues ColesCINCLE56.67
55Mark ClaytonBALPIT56.33
56Mike WallacePITat BAL55.00
57Brandon GibsonSTLSEA54.33
58Michael ClaytonTBat ATL54.00
T-58Kenny BrittTENARI54.00
60Patrick CraytonDALOAK52.67
61Mohamed MassaquoiCLEat CIN52.33
T-61Eddie RoyalDENNYG52.33
63Hakeem NicksNYGat DEN51.00
T-63Legedu NaaneeSDKC51.00
65Deion BranchSEAat STL50.00
66Bryant JohnsonDETGB48.67
67Davone BessMIAat BUF48.33
68Muhsin MuhammadCARat NYJ46.33
69Louis MurphyOAKat DAL45.00
T-69Jason HillSFJAC45.00
71Calvin JohnsonDETGB43.73
72Ted GinnMIAat BUF43.00
T-72Greg CamarilloMIAat BUF43.00
74Chansi StuckeyCLEat CIN40.33
75Kelley WashingtonBALPIT39.67
76Brandon StokleyDENNYG39.00
77Mike ThomasJACat SF38.67
78Antwaan Randle ElWASat PHI38.00
79Andre CaldwellCINCLE37.67
80Darrius Heyward-BeyOAKat DAL37.00
81Josh CribbsCLEat CIN36.87
82Mark BradleyKCat SD36.00
83Brian HartlineMIAat BUF35.67
T-83Isaac BruceSFJAC35.67
85Danny AmendolaSTLSEA34.33
86Josh ReedBUFMIA33.67
87Jordy NelsonGBat DET33.00
88Lance LongKCat SD32.00
89Dennis NorthcuttDETGB31.67
90Lance MooreNONE29.83
91Julian EdelmanNEat NO29.00
T-91Jason AvantPHIWAS29.00
93Sam AikenNEat NO26.33
T-93Chaz SchilensOAKat DAL26.33
95David ClowneyNYJCAR25.67
96Domenik HixonNYGat DEN25.00
97Devin ThomasWASat PHI24.67
98Jacoby JonesHOUIND24.33
T-98Johnnie Lee HigginsOAKat DAL24.33
100Jabar GaffneyDENNYG23.33

 
Start: Wes Welker, Patriots. OK, so he hasn’t scored in his past three games, but the catch and yardage totals this guy puts up are pretty amazing. He’s a top 5 receivers in PPR leagues for sure, and is a must-start in just about any scoring system. His 15 catch (!!!) game last week puts him on pace for 126 catches on the year, and that’s after missing two games earlier in the season! The Patriots may have even more incentive to throw Welker’s direction this week, as New England – New Orleans has the potential to turn into a shootout.
 
Start: Michael Crabtree, 49ers. Crabtree has adjusted quickly to the speed of the NFL game, and has managed to record pretty good numbers through five games with the 49ers. He found the endzone for the first time last week, and has the potential for another good game this week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville  has the 25th ranked passing defense in the league, and will also be missing their top cornerback, Rashean Mathis, due to a groin injury. This could be a real statement game for Crabtree.
 
Sit: Steve Smith, Panthers. Smith has had a nice little mid-season resurgence these past couple of weeks, but this week is not the greatest of matchups for him. The talent of cornerback Darelle Revis has been well publicized at this point, and the Jets will likely keep him matched up with Smith the entire game. The Jets will try to force Jake Delhomme to use his other, less explosive, receivers.
 
Sit: Kevin Walter, Texans. Walter is usually good for a few catches and middling yardage totals, but has not scored since Week 3, and just does not seem to be a true #2 target in the eyes of Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson will get his catches, but the rest of the passes are spread out among a host of wideouts, including Walter, Jacoby Jones, and David Anderson.

RankTight EndsTeamOpponentAverage
1Tony GonzalezATLTB91.00
T-1Dallas ClarkINDat HOU91.00
3Antonio GatesSDKC88.67
4Kellen WinslowTBat ATL83.00
5Vernon DavisSFJAC82.33
6Greg OlsenCHIat MIN80.67
7John CarlsonSEAat STL79.67
8Brent CelekPHIWAS78.00
9Jeremy ShockeyNONE75.67
10Visanthe ShiancoeMINCHI75.33
11Tony SchefflerDENNYG71.33
12Zach MillerOAKat DAL70.33
13Heath MillerPITat BAL70.00
14Fred DavisWASat PHI67.00
15Dustin KellerNYJCAR65.00
16Jason WittenDALOAK64.50
17Donald LeeGBat DET64.33
18Brandon PettigrewDETGB63.33
19Jermichael FinleyGBat DET61.50
20Todd HeapBALPIT60.67
T-20Ben WatsonNEat NO60.67
22Bo ScaifeTENARI59.00
23Kevin BossNYGat DEN58.00
24Daniel CoatsCINCLE57.00
25Derek FineBUFMIA55.67
T-25Sean RyanKCat SD55.67
27Marcedes LewisJACat SF55.00
28Stephen SpachARIat TEN54.00
29Robert RoyalCLEat CIN52.00
30Dante RosarioCARat NYJ49.67
31Joel DreessenHOUIND49.33
32Martellus BennettDALOAK36.33
33Shawn NelsonBUFMIA36.00
T-33Randy McMichaelSTLSEA36.00
35Daniel GrahamDENNYG22.67

 
Start: Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers. Winslow is managing to have a pretty good season despite the struggles of his team.¬† (He’s on pace for 700+ yards, 8 TDs). The Falcons have trouble against the pass (29th ranked pass defense), so Winslow should have the opportunity for some big plays this week.
 
Sit: Bo Scaife, Titans. Scaife has yet to really see the results of Vince Young’s improved play, and is probably not worth a start in any but the deepest leagues at this point. However, if Young continues his progression, Scaife could develop into a decent fantasy option yet! Just something worth keeping an eye on…

RankKickersTeamOpponentAverage
1David AkersPHIWAS88.67
2Stephen GostkowskiNEat NO87.67
3Mason CrosbyGBat DET86.33
T-3Nate KaedingSDKC86.33
5Ryan LongwellMINCHI86.00
6Nick FolkDALOAK85.67
7Lawrence TynesNYGat DEN80.00
8Neil RackersARIat TEN79.67
9Matt StoverINDat HOU79.00
10Jason ElamATLTB75.33
T-10Kris BrownHOUIND75.33
12John CarneyNONE73.33
13Shayne GrahamCINCLE72.33
14Rian LindellBUFMIA70.67
T-14Joe NedneySFJAC70.67
16Jeff ReedPITat BAL70.33
17Josh ScobeeJACat SF69.67
T-17Jay FeelyNYJCAR69.67
T-17Rob BironasTENvs. ARI69.67
20Matt PraterDENNYG69.33
T-20Dan CarpenterMIAat BUF69.33
22Robbie GouldCHIat MIN68.67
23Billy CundiffBALPIT66.00
24Olindo MareSEAat STL65.33
T-24Shaun SuishamWASat PHI65.33
26Josh BrownSTLSEA61.67
27Sebastian JanikowskiOAKat DAL61.00
28Ryan SuccopKCat SD60.33
29John KasayCARat NYJ59.67
30Connor BarthTBat ATL57.33
31Jason HansonDETGB55.33
32Phil DawsonCLEat CIN51.67

 
Start: Neil Rackers, Cardinals. This is a matchup of a top 10 scoring offense and a bottom 10 scoring defense, so theoretically Rackers should have several attempts to put the ball through the uprights. The hope is simply that the Cardinals stall a few times in the redzone. This can be hard to predict, but at least you know the potential is there.
 
Sit: Shaun Suisham, Redskins. Suisham was perfect on the season going into last week’s game against the Dallas Cowboys. The Redskins gave him four field goal attempts in that game, but Suisham was only able to convert two of them, allowing Dallas to come back and win the game 7-6. Any potential lack of confidence stemming from that game, coupled with the Redskins’ weak offense, make Suisham a bad fantasy start.

RankDefenseTeamOpponentAverage
1EaglesPHIWAS93.67
2VikingsMINCHI81.33
T-2SaintsNONE81.33
T-2SteelersPITat BAL81.33
5PackersGBat DET81.00
6SeahawksSEAat STL80.67
7BengalsCINCLE79.00
T-7DolphinsMIAat BUF79.00
9CowboysDALOAK77.00
10GiantsNYGat DEN76.67
T-10JetsNYJCAR76.67
12RavensBALPIT75.33
T-12PanthersCARat NYJ75.33
1449ersSFJAC74.00
15BroncosDENNYG73.67
T-15ChargersSDKC73.67
17FalconsATLTB70.67
18PatriotsNEat NO69.00
19CardinalsARIat TEN66.33
20ColtsINDat HOU65.33
21RedskinsWASat PHI64.33
22TitansTENARI63.33
23BuccaneersTBat ATL59.33
24BillsBUFMIA58.67
T-24TexansHOUIND58.67
26BearsCHIat MIN57.33
27JaguarsJACat SF56.67
28RaidersOAKat DAL55.33
29LionsDETGB54.67
30RamsSTLSEA53.33
31BrownsCLEat CIN50.67
32ChiefsKCat SD47.67

 
Start: Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles must be licking their chops thinking about playing a Redskins’ team that is missing not only two starting linemen and a pro bowl tight end, but also both their starting and primary backups at running back. Washington only scores at a 14.6 points per game clip, and quarterback Jason Campbell has been sacked 32 times this season (that’s good for 4th most in the NFL) . Trent Cole, Juqua Parker, and the rest of the Philly pass rushers should be able to wreak havoc at home against the Skins.
 
Sit: Indianapolis Colts. Peyton Manning and the offense gets most of the credit for Indy’s success, but the Colts’ defense leads the league in points allowed per game at just 15.7. However, while the Colts are usually a fairly safe option in fantasy, I would be wary of their matchup this week. Houston has some weapons on offense (namely Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson) and always seems to play the Colts fairly close, particularly at home.
 

 
Nick Hopkins is a Cafe member who has been contributing to the Start & Sit since 2006. He posts on the Cafe under the name terpfan. R.J. White is a fantasy blogger at the sports site FanHouse. Check out his work both here and there, and feel free to talk to him in the forums, where he posts under the name daullaz.
 
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11 Responses to “Week 12: Turkey Day Special”

  1. Thundercat says:

    Is NO Saints ranked so high because of all there TD’s this year? I think the Monday Night will be a shootout, so I would think people will stay away from NO Saints & NE Patriots defense this week. Wrong or Right?

    ReplyReply
  2. PoOpSaNdWiCh says:

    My dilemna is just THAT!!! I have NO and NE defense! WHICH ONE WOULD YOU PICK???

    ReplyReply
  3. User avatar terpfan says:

    I would imagine that our rankers like the big play potential of the Saints’ defense. And it HAS helped them to becoming the highest scoring fantasy defense (at least in my leagues). So perhaps they are never really a bad start.

    Personally, I dont really like them this week, as I said, I think that game has shootout written all over it. But if I had to choose between the Saints and Patriots, I think I’d go with New Orleans because of their penchant for interceptions (and for returning them for touchdowns).

    ReplyReply
  4. pipyface23 says:

    PLEASE ANSWER BEFORE SUNDAY!!!
    I have the bengals D/ST and steelers D/ST bengals are playing the browns and the steelers are playing the ravens. you guys have the steelers ranked ahead of the bengals i need to know why and which to start

    ReplyReply
  5. User avatar RedBirdChica says:

    I’m in a similar dilemma, pipy. I have the Vikings @Chi and Cinci @Cle. Why is Cinci ranked so low? Is it because the bust pick from last week scared you off?? I feel like Brady Quinn will be attacked more readily than Cutler’s Bears – who were embarrassed last week.

    Is my logic flawed??

    ReplyReply
  6. User avatar daullaz says:

    I personally had Bengals (84 overall with a perfect 20 matchup) over Steelers (71 overall with a 3 for matchup). Don’t know why the other guys had them flip-flopped, but I personally agree with the Bengals over Steelers. I have the Vikings slightly ahead of the Bengals, but that’s largely because I feel they’re a much better overall fantasy defense.

    ReplyReply
  7. i need a little help if anyone can add an opinon… Matt Shaub (Vs Indy) or Matt Ryan (Vs Tamba Bay)?? Thing is i already got Tony Gonzalez, Roddy white and Turner/Snelling starting.. any other time id pick Ryan over weak TB but im not sure having 4 of the same team would be a good way to go. let me know please!!! thank you.

    ReplyReply
  8. and btw.. Bengals Defense this week over the steelers defense!!

    ReplyReply
  9. pipyface23 says:

    thanks for the help guys.
    presidential i would go with schaub

    ReplyReply
  10. automaticg says:

    defense debacle:

    ne pats d versus no saints off

    or

    houston d versus indy off

    ReplyReply
  11. fezzeck says:

    farve or brady 30 minutes left

    ReplyReply

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