Weak Defenses and Favorable Week 6 Matchups - 5 comments

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Looking to exploit favorable fantasy matchups in Week 6? In this article, I list the worst rushing and passing defenses in the league through the first five weeks of the season, their opponents, and who may benefit and produce great fantasy performances.

Worst Run Defenses

Rank	Team	Games	Yds. Allowed	Yds/game	Rush TDs
26	Houston Texans	5	704	140.8	9
27	San Diego Chargers	4	604	151.0	6
28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	763	152.6	3
29	Buffalo Bills	5	773	154.6	7
30	Carolina Panthers	4	622	155.5	4
31	Oakland Raiders	5	805	161.0	7
32	Cleveland Browns	5	852	170.4	8

 
Matchups in Week 6

26 Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (Cedric Benson)
27 San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos (Knowshon Moreno)
28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart)
29 Buffalo Bills @ N.Y. Jets (Thomas Jones, Leon Washington)
30 Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward)
31 Oakland Raiders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy)
32 Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Rashard Mendenhall, Willie Parker)

Worst Pass Defenses

Rank	Team	Games	Yds. Allowed	Yds/game	Pass TDs
27	Detroit Lions	5	1,223	244.6	15
28	Dallas Cowboys	5	1,257	251.4	8
29	Kansas City Chiefs	5	1,350	270.0	10
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	1,365	273.0	11
31	Tennessee Titans	5	1,438	287.6	13
32	Arizona Cardinals	4	1,212	303.0	9

 
Matchups in Week 6

27 Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley)
28 Dallas Cowboys on a bye
29 Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins (Jason Campbell, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley)
30 Jacksonville Jaguars @ St. Louis Rams (Marc Bulger, Donnie Avery)
31 Tennessee Titans @ New England (Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker)
32 Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle (Matt Hasselbeck, Nate Burleson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, John Carlson)

Some caveats:

While we now have four or five weeks worth of data with which to notice some trends and draw a few conclusions, statistically, this is still a small sample size and can be greatly influenced by whether a team has faced strong rushing or passing offenses so far this year.

You should never bench your studs

Just because teams have favorable matchups against weak defenses does not necessarily guarantee fantasy success. A lot of other factors come into play depending on what is going on with the gameplan, the game itself, and other things

Teams may decide that even though their opponent may have a weak passing defense, they’d rather gameplan to run the ball.

If a team gets down quickly, they may not have the choice of running the ball even though their opponent may have a weak running defense — they may be forced to pass and play catchup.

A tight end who should have a favorable matchup against a weak passing defense may be needed to stay and help block because of a decimated offensive line.

Darren McFadden and Michael Bush flamed out in spectacular fashion against Houston, the weakest rushing defense in the league at that time, simply because the Raiders are inept.

These favorable matchups pan out more often than they fail, but I keep trying to stress that this analysis is best suited for borderline roster decisions in larger (12 and 14-team) leagues which also start a 3rd WR, a 4th WR, or a flex spot. In a smaller (10-team) league which only starts 2 RB and 2 WR positions, I’m not likely to ever bench my studs solely to opt for a player with a favorable matchup.

Additional notes

The running back matchups this week are about as tasty as they’ve been all season. With the possible exception of the Bucs RBs, I think every other RB listed this week is going to have stud performances. Watch the injury news however for Willie Parker’s status.

The passing defense statistics offer some very favorable matchups, but there are a few which I just don’t have a lot of confidence in. I expect Green Bay to have a banner day, with Greg Jennings finally getting back on track. Similarly, Tom Brady and Co. should tee off on the woeful Titans secondary, and Matt Hasselbeck and company might just well repeat their monster results from last week against the Cards. It would be nice though if TE John Carlson could get back in the gameplan; he hasn’t caught a TD or had more than 4 catches since Week 1.

On the flip side however, the Redskins and Rams offenses haven’t been exactly juggernauts this season, and I would be hesitant to start their respective skill players. The Redskins offensive line is in shambles and I just don’t think that Campbell will get the protection to have even an adequate performance. Chris Cooley didn’t have a single reception last week because he was needed to block.

Don’t get cute! I would personally still go with established studs like Drew Brees or Philip Rivers (and their WRs) despite the fact that they are facing the #1 ranked N.Y. Giants and #5 ranked Denver Broncos passing defenses, respectively, over a struggling team with a favorable passing defense matchup.

 
Jeff LaGrassa is a Steelers fan and a Cafe regular, and a proud new dad. In his free time (yeah right!) he enjoys disc golf, skiing, and playing the electric bass. You can catch him posting in the Cafe forums as The Lung.
 

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