StrategyNovember 13, 2009

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Weak Defenses and Favorable Week 10 Matchups - 2 comments

By Jeff LaGrassa

Looking to exploit favorable fantasy matchups in Week 10? In this article, I list the worst rushing and passing defenses in the league through the first nine weeks of the season, their opponents, and who may benefit and produce great fantasy performances.

Worst Run Defenses

RankTeamGamesYds. AllowedYds/gameRush TDs
27St. Louis Rams81078134.812
28Kansas City Chiefs81090136.38
29Oakland Raiders81288161.013
30Tampa Bay Buccaneers81307163.49
31Cleveland Browns81364170.512
32Buffalo Bills81389173.612

Matchups in Week 10

27 St. Louis Rams vs. New Orleans Saints (Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, Reggie Bush)
28 Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, Michael Bush)
29 Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith)
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins (Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams)
31 Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (Ray Rice)
32 Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans (Chris Johnson, LenWhale White)

Worst Pass Defenses

RankTeamGamesYds. AllowedYds/gamePass TDs
26Jacksonville Jaguars81938242.315
27Atlanta Falcons81971246.411
28Miami Dolphins81975246.910
29Arizona Cardinals81978247.314
30Kansas City Chiefs82018252.314
31Detroit Lions82105263.119
32Tennessee Titans82227278.421

Matchups in Week 10

26 Jacksonville Jaguars @ N.Y. Jets (Mark Sanchez, Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards, Dustin Keller)
27 Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith)
28 Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Josh Freeman, Kellen Winslow)
29 Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (Matt Hasselbeck, Nate Burleson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Deion Branch, John Carlson)
30 Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (JaMarcus Russell, Zach Miller, Louis Murphy)
31 Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (Brett Favre, Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe)
32 Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills (Trent Edwards / Ryan Fitzpatrick, Lee Evans, Terrell Owens)

Additional notes

With only two NFL teams on bye this week, we don’t have to dig so deep for favorable matchups and can concentrate on the truly worst of NFL defenses.

49ers vs. Titans

The running back matchups are where it’s at this week, with a number of RBs (along with their fantasy owners) who should be licking their chops at their prospects this week. While Chris Johnson has put up some eye-popping statistics in several games this year, and shouldn’t be expected to equal them, his forecast this week against the worst rushing defense in the NFL is downright tasty. Ray Rice and the Dolphins RBs should also continue with the success they’ve been enjoying all year, and all of the Saints RBs make excellent flex plays against a punchless Rams defense.

The Chiefs offensive line has been brutal this year and surely contributed to Larry Johnson’s woeful numbers, and his replacement running backs can’t be expected to fare much better. The Running Back By Committee in Kansas City also serves to siphon value away from each of them. On the other side of the field, the return of Darren McFadden also clouds a favorable matchup. You simply cannot in good faith bench a quality RB with a tough matchup to opt for a Raiders or Chiefs RB simply because their matchups are favorable.

Once again, while some of the the passing defense matchups might be favorable, unless you have bye week issues, it’s better not to try to take advantage of them. The Buffalo, Oakland, and Carolina passing offenses have been so brutal that I wouldn’t have a lot of faith starting any of these players unless I absolutely have to; practically any warm body at QB is better than Choke Delhomme, Off-the-Marcus Russell, and whoever is manning the ship in Buffalo. With their ramshod offensive line, you can’t expect the Seahawks to fare any better than they did earlier in the season against their Cardinal divisional foes, but at least you can start all your Vikings and Jets with confidence this week.

Jeff LaGrassa is a Steelers fan and a Cafe regular, and a proud new dad. In his free time (yeah right!) he enjoys disc golf, skiing, and playing the electric bass. You can catch him posting in the Cafe forums as The Lung.
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2 Responses to “Weak Defenses and Favorable Week 10 Matchups”

  1. User avatar saundman2000 says:

    This is excellent. I always look at these stats and matchups, but it’s nice to have someone else do the legwork. This is a great article.

  2. User avatar The Lung says:

    Thanks a bunch, saundman2000!!!


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