StrategyNovember 19, 2009


Weak Defenses and Favorable Week 11 Matchups

By Jeff LaGrassa

Looking to exploit favorable fantasy matchups in Week 11? In this article, I list the worst rushing and passing defenses in the league through the first ten weeks of the season, their opponents, and who may benefit and produce great fantasy performances.

Worst Run Defenses

RankTeamGamesYds. AllowedYds/gameRush TDs
26Atlanta Falcons91173130.38
27Kansas City Chiefs91272141.39
28St. Louis Rams91281142.313
29Oakland Raiders91400155.614
30Cleveland Browns91498166.413
31Tampa Bay Buccaneers91506167.310
32Buffalo Bills91557173.014

 
Matchups in Week 11

26 Atlanta Falcons @ N.Y. Giants (Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw*)
27 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Rashard Mendenhall)
28 St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals (Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower)
29 Oakland Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Cedric Benson*, Bernard Scott)
30 Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions (Kevin Smith, Maurice Morris)
31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Mike Bell)
32 Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Maurice Jones-Drew)

* watch injury reports

Worst Pass Defenses

RankTeamGamesYds. AllowedYds/gameRush TDs
27Miami Dolphins92155239.411
28Atlanta Falcons92166240.713
29San Francisco 49ers92235248.39
30Arizona Cardinals92281253.415
31Tennessee Titans92434270.423
32Detroit Lions92445271.720

 
Matchups in Week 11

27 Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers (Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammed)
28 Atlanta Falcons @ N.Y. Giants (Eli Manning, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Kevin Boss)
29 San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings)
30 Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (Marc Bulger, Donnie Avery, Brandon Gibson)
31 Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter)
32 Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns (Brady Quinn, Mohammed Mossaquoi)

Additional notes

Now that the byes are behind us, we don’t have to dig so deep for favorable matchups and can concentrate on the truly worst of NFL defenses.

The running back matchups are again where it’s at this week, with a number of RBs who should be licking their chops at their prospects this week, along with their fantasy owners. Chris Johnson put up some eye-popping statistics last week against the worst rushing defense in the NFL, and this week it could be Maurice Jones-Drew who gets to feast on the Bills. The game plan for New Orleans featured Reggie Bush last week, but I’m willing to bet that Pierre Thomas is the focus against an awful Tampa Bay rushing D. In possibly the least exciting NFL matchup of the year, the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions (aka the doormats of the NFL) at least offer a tasty running back matchup for Kevin Smith. If Cedric Benson is out, I expect Bernard Scott to excel in his first start against the Raiders. Rashard Mendenhall should bounce back after not being utilized against the Bengals, and both Giants running backs are rested and should exploit the Falcons at home.

Once again, while some of the the passing defense matchups might be favorable, it’s better not to try to take advantage of them. The Cleveland, St. Louis, and Carolina passing offenses have been more or less brutal and I wouldn’t have a lot of faith starting any of these QBs unless I absolutely have to; practically any warm body at QB is better than Brady Quinn, Marc Bulger and Jake Delhomme. Despite Tennessee’s defensive resurgence, I expect Houston to put up excellent fantasy numbers now that they are rested after their bye week. Despite getting beat up behind a dreadful offensive line, I think Aaron Rodgers and his WRs continue with the success they’ve been enjoying all season, and along with Houston are really the only passing attacks I trust this week.

 
<i>Jeff LaGrassa is a Steelers fan and a Cafe regular, and a proud new dad. In his free time (yeah right!) he enjoys disc golf, skiing, and playing the electric bass. You can catch him posting in the Cafe forums as</i> The Lung.
 
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One Response to “Weak Defenses and Favorable Week 11 Matchups”

  1. diehardff says:

    you know what would be great? if you could tell us how these predictions did the previous week, that way we would see how reliable they were. Thanks.

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