StrategyDecember 3, 2009

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Weak Defenses and Favorable Week 13 Matchups

By Jeff LaGrassa

Looking to exploit favorable fantasy matchups in Week 13? In this article, I list the worst rushing and passing defenses in the league through the first ten weeks of the season, their opponents, and who may benefit and produce great fantasy performances.

Worst Run Defenses

RankTeamYds. AllowedYds/gameRush TDs
27Kansas City Chiefs1480134.511
28St. Louis Rams1634148.516
29Cleveland Browns1759159.913
30Tampa Bay Buccaneers1764160.412
31Oakland Raiders1772161.117
32Buffalo Bills1816165.116

Matchups in Week 13

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter)
St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears (Matt Forte)
Cleveland Browns vs. San Diego Chargers (LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (DeAngelo Williams*, Jonathan Stewart*)
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Rashard Mendenhall)
Buffalo Bills vs. N.Y. Jets (Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene)

* watch injury reports

Worst Pass Defenses

RankTeamYds. AllowedYds/gamePass TDs
26Jacksonville Jaguars2672242.919
27Atlanta Falcons2779252.618
28San Francisco 49ers2822256.511
29Arizona Cardinals2841258.316
30Kansas City Chiefs2842258.419
31Tennessee Titans2934266.725
32Detroit Lions3095281.427

Matchups in Week 13

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Donovan McNabb, DaBomb Jackson*, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, Jason Avant)
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (Matt Hasselbeck, Nate Burleson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, John Carlson)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings (Brett Favre, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, Bernard Berrian)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Tony Scheffler)
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie)
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles, Andre Caldwell)

* watch injury reports

Additional notes

In the final week before most leagues’ playoffs begin, the matchups are as favorable as they’ve been the entire year — a lot of stud players face the weakest defenses in the league. About the only matchups I would feel less than confident about are the Denver passing attack and Matt Forte, who has disappointed most of this year. Even at home against the Rams, Forte does not inspire confidence.

Carson Palmer put up VERY pedestrian stats in the month of November, and if he doesn’t break out at home against the worst pass defense in the league, he never will. Personally, I am dropping Palmer outright if he doesn’t throw for at least 250 yards and two TDs against the Motor City Kitties this week.

Jeff LaGrassa is a Steelers fan and a Cafe regular, and a proud new dad. In his free time (yeah right!) he enjoys disc golf, skiing, and playing the electric bass. You can catch him posting in the Cafe forums as The Lung.
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