Mock DraftsJuly 19, 2010


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2010 Early Mock Draft — Part II - 1 comments

By Brendan Morris

It’s never too early for a mock draft, especially for 12 guys that follow fantasy football year-round.  Who are the hot names this year?  Who is a sleeper?  Who is overvalued?  We look to analyze some of the picks and trends that emerged in this early draft.  My hope is that you, dear reader, can learn from our successes and missteps as you prepare for your upcoming drafts.

This draft began at the end of May as a slow draft with up to 24 hours for an owner to make a selection.  Most picks were made much quicker and we reached the end on July 7.

Part I of this article details the first 10 rounds and can be found here.

League parameters:

1) Snake draft.
2) 9 starters, 7 bench.
3) Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 “flex” RB/WR/TE, TE, DST, K.
4) Passing TDs = 4; Rushing/Receiving TDs = 6
5) No Points Per Reception (PPR); no return yardage points; return TDs go to DST.

Under each team’s roster are the drafter’s own comments about both their team and others.  I will also add “my take” about their team.

ROSTERS (Each team is listed in draft order)

thriftyrocker:

QB – Tony Romo (4.12)
RB – Chris Johnson (1.1)
RB – Jamaal Charles (2.12)
RB/WR – Beanie Wells (3.1)
WR – Hines Ward (6.12)
WR – Jeremy Maclin (9.1)
TE – Dallas Clark (5.1)
K – David Buehler (16.12)
D/ST – Philadelphia Eagles (15.1)

Bench
RB – C.J. Spiller (7.1), Arian Foster (11.1)
WR – Santonio Holmes (8.12), Malcolm Floyd (10.12), Dexter McCluster (12.12), Chazeray Schilens (13.1), Jacoby Jones (14.12)

My best pick was: “Chris Johnson. He’s going to carry me to a few victories I wouldn’t deserve otherwise.”

My shakiest pick was: “Hines Ward. This is not a guy I usually draft because he has no upside this year due to age and QB situation. However, he was the absolute last guy in that tier, and even stable low WR2 numbers helps the team I had at that point in the draft.”

My late round sleeper pick that I love is: “Malcom Floyd. It’s an interesting year because you’ve got 3 top flight WRs who will miss a chunk of time in Holmes (whom I also landed at 8.12), Welker (whom I just missed out on), and V-Jax (whom I thought was drafted way too high given his situation). After I missed out on all of the guys I thought were top 15 WRs, my strategy became to pair one of those guys who will miss time with one of the guys I thought would deliver filling in. I ended up with what I think is the best “fill in” WR1 in Floyd. I think he’ll give me numbers at or near what V-Jax delivers, and V-Jax is guaranteed to miss at least some time and maybe a lot.”

My team would win the league championship if: “Wells and Charles deliver. I think my team has a good shot. I’m pretty confident I can find two WR2-level WRs from the guys I draft or from early waiver or trade moves, so my success comes down to whether or not Wells and Charles deliver on their draft position. Getting Spiller and Foster later, two guys who both have great upside as well, gives me a little insurance in case one of those picks busts; if they hit, it lets me use Charles or Wells as trade bait for a WR upgrade.”

The best team drafted (besides my own) was: “A lot of teams look good, and I don’t think any team is flawless. One good one that stands out is Bmorr8811. The fact I passed on Marshall gave him probably the best first 3 rounds in Rice, White, and Marshall. I also like the Best pick and the fact that he got both Chicago RBs. The fact that he took Favre meant he had to spend too high of a pick on a backup QB. His team would look a little better with an equivalent QB1 and a 10th round WR on the bench.”

The shakiest team drafted was: “A lot of people are hyping Mattb47’s team, so I will be a contrarian and say it is one of the shakiest. I have no faith in Jacobs. Forsett and Caddy have a lot in common – low upside RBs who will be in RBBC with bad offenses. If Vincent Jackson misses a lot of time, his WRs look no better than mine. Without PPR, the other Steve Smith is not much better than Ward, really. AAAWall is getting some flack for his RB gambles, but all his other positions are very good, and Stewart and Ricky are at worst RB2s (with a lot of variability week to week) with RB1 upside.”

My experience with the draft was: “The flex option gave me a great chance to go RB/RB/RB again and see how it turned out. I was a bit surprised to see other owners keep gobbling up WRs. Several guys I wanted went right before my pick. Indibuck was my nemesis grabbing MSW and Nicks (author’s note:  heehee!), but I’m still happy with my roster. Maclin was a steal. Holmes is a possible steal. I have good confidence in Floyd. Ward gives me some safety. I’m confident all the WRs I drafted can be WR2s, but I don’t think I have a Sidney Rice or Miles Austin that could become WR1s and make the team dominant.”

My take: It’s an “old school” draft, highlighted by going RB-RB-RB.  Despite not picking a WR until the end of Round 6, it also happens to be my favorite squad in the league.  When you add QB Romo and TE Clark to the CJ/Charles/Beanie RB combo, it should be enough to make up for deficiencies at WR.  Maclin was great value in the 9th, and that Malcolm Floyd pick in the 10th is looking better and better as a suspension and possible holdout loom for Vincent Jackson.  I thought the C.J. Spiller pick hurt him overall, as he had a chance to grab his second WR (right after picking Ward the round before), but he decided to wait another 22 picks to address WR2, and seven WRs went off the board.

seahawks506:

QB – Phillip Rivers (5.02)
RB – Adrian Peterson (1.02)
RB – Ryan Grant (3.02)
WR – Desean Jackson (2.11)
WR – Wes Welker (6.11)
RB/WR – Robert Meachem (7.02)
TE – Antonio Gates (4.11)
K – Garrett Hartley (14.11)
D /ST – Green Bay Packers (13.02)

Bench
QB – Ben Roethlisberger (10.11)
RB – Thomas Jones (8.11), James Starks (16.11)
WR -  Antonio Bryant (9.02), Demaryius Thomas (11.02), Jerrico Cotchery (15.02)
TE – Heath Miller (12.11)

My best picks were: “Although QB’s were taken later than usual, I’m pleased with being able to get Rivers in the late 5th round. Being able to take Ryan Grant in the 3rd round was great. He’s a low RB1 in my opinion, probably the eighth best RB as he was last year. With Adrian Peterson and Ryan Grant as my RBs I should be set.”

My shakiest picks were: “I made a mistake picking Gates under the assumption that Clark was mostly a possession guy who was only very valuable in PPR leagues. However, he will have to compete with a plethora of WRs as well as Addai/Brown so even though Gates has some injury concerns they are probably going to produce about the same, and probably at a very high level as well.”

My late round sleeper pick that I love is: “Ben Roethlisberger could present great value as a late 10th rounder. With Rivers set as my starting QB he is a great bye week option and if a team is desperate for a QB, he’s a QB1 I can trade away.”

My team would win the league championship if: “Kolb can keep up McNabb’s connection with DeSean Jackson and if Wes Welker can come back from injury quickly. I think the first point will happen, and D-Jax will be a great deep threat and fantasy stud again. Welker will be great as a WR2, and if Thomas Jones or Antonio Bryant can be pretty productive in his absence, then that would be optimal.”

The best team drafted (besides my own) was: “Bmor’s. Everyone else has pretty much said it all, no team has no problems at all but the one with a good balance of upside and proven players is his team.”

The shakiest team drafted was: “All of them are drafted well and I see the reasoning behind every team but I’d say Kareighuis has more question marks than I’d be comfortable having. Crabtree, Greene, Garcon, Ryan, etc. all have some good upside but with so many players on the team with this label I’d feel more comfortable having some dependable, proven fantasy guys. And on the bench I don’t see that either with Sanchez, Bryant, etc. But like I said the upside on this team is good and if guys like Greene, Crabtree can have great years with Ryan and Miller bouncing back this team could be formidable.”

My experience with the draft was: “It was alright. Quarterbacks were taken later than usual. I felt privileged to be able to draft with some of the most experienced people on this site. My mid-to-late rounds were a little shaky and I missed a few sleepers that I’m personally high on like Caddy Williams, John Carlson and especially Malcolm Floyd, who is one of my top sleepers coming into 2010.”

My take: I really liked the Grant pick in the third round — I swore at my computer screen when he went one pick before I would have grabbed him.  I also liked the Gates/Rivers combo picked up in Rounds 4 and 5.  I think that Seahawks’ biggest weakness is at WR.  I’m personally not as high as others on D-Jax this year with McNabb gone… his WR2 spot will be a battle between guys with question marks like injury (Welker) or role (Meachem, Bryant).

Indibuck:

QB – Aaron Rodgers (2.10)
RB – Maurice Jones-Drew (1.03)
RB – Pierre Thomas (3.03)
WR – Hakeem Nicks (4.10)
WR – Mike Sims-Walker (6.10)
RB/WR – Darren McFadden (7.03)
TE – Vernon Davis (5.03)
K – Adam Vinatieri (16.10)
D/ST – Minnesota Vikings (14.10)

Bench
QB – Matthew Stafford (12.10)
RB – Montario Hardesty (9.03), Laurence Maroney (11.03), James Davis (15.03)
WR – Devin Hester (8.10), Derrick Mason (10.10), Jabar Gaffney (13.03)

My take: as this was my team, they are listed below.

My best pick was: Aaron Rodgers. I am NOT a fan of drafting QBs early — but getting a consensus top-2 QB, with an ADP of 9, at the 22nd pick made for great value. Pairing Rodgers with MJD gives me a legit shot to have the #1 RB and #1 QB.

My shakiest pick was: Hakeem Nicks as a #1 WR. Ideally, he is a solid WR2 with upside, but with so many WRs being taken in the first 42 picks, I didn’t have a lot of options left, and I felt like I needed a solid WR at that pick, especially with WR-needy Teams 1 and 2 getting four picks before my next one.

My late round sleeper pick that I love is: Jabar Gaffney at 13.03. Yes, he is a retread WR, but does anyone remember Week 17 last year when Marshall was suspended? Gaffney went 14/213 in that game. Yes, it was against the lowly Chiefs D, but he’s a Josh McDaniels favorite, and fits the Denver offensive scheme very well. He’s competing to be the #1 WR option versus a very raw rookie and a guy in Royal that looked terrible last year. I like Gaffney’s chances. He’s my WR5 but has the upside to be a WR3 or better.

My team would win the league championship if: I can get solid numbers from the WR spots. I feel pretty strong at QB, RB, and TE. I also need a few sleepers to break through — guys like Gaffney, Hester, Hardesty, Maroney.

My experience with the draft was: Loved it. I enjoy the challenge of putting together a squad when I am drafting against 11 other guys that really know their stuff — and it shows as every single team has a hole or two in their roster.

mattb47:

QB – Drew Brees (2.09)
RB – Michael Turner (1.04)
RB – Brandon Jacobs (5.04)
RB/WR – Justin Forsett (6.09)
WR – Vincent Jackson (3.04)
WR – Steve Smith NYG (4.09)
TE – Visanthe Shiancoe (8.09)
K – Dan Carpenter (16.09)
D /ST – Pittsburgh Steelers (15.04)

Bench
QB – Matt Moore (12.09)
RB – Carnell Williams (9.04), Larry Johnson (11.04), Toby Gerhart (13.04)
WR – Santana Moss (7.04), Johnny Knox (10.09), Harry Douglass (14.09)

My best pick was: “Michael Turner. Although it seems that most would pass on Turner with the fourth pick, I was pleasantly surprised by his performances last season despite being hurt for a bit. He showed me that his high TD totals are not a fluke and any guy who can consistently score plenty of TDs (see LT for many years) has the potential to be one of the true elite fantasy RBs for that season. He essentially scored 10 TDs in nine games last season (he was hurt in the 10th game and only had one carry in one more game), and so prior to getting hurt he was on pace for (despite me not liking this method of calculating it) 1,477 yards and 17.8 TDs. His yardage was a bit down but also keep in mind that Ryan wasn’t as big of a threat as the previous year ,which allowed defenses to focus in on him more. I’m expecting big things from Turner this year.”

My shakiest pick was: “Vincent Jackson, mainly because of the huge uncertainty surrounding his contract and a possible suspension looming. He has significant upside though, and after waiting on my WR1 until the third, I think he has potential to be a decent WR1 but he was pretty risky to bet on as my best WR for this year.”

My late round sleeper pick that I love is: “Johnny Knox. Word out of Chicago is that Knox is looking very good as is pretty firmly entrenched as a starter for them this year, and that’s good news in the Mike Martz pass-happy offense. Cutler already seemed to find this guy often last year, and he’s going to get plenty of opportunities to make plays this season.”

My team would win the league championship if: “My borderline RBs can secure some good playing time and consistent carries as starters. I’ve got Justin Forsett, Larry Johnson, and Cadillac Williams who are all guys who “could” be starters for their teams but nothing is guaranteed in any sense so if things go my way there I think I would be in contention. Also, if ADP goes down and Gerhart plays well that would be a huge boost.”

The best team drafted (besides my own) was: “I like Biju’s team. I think that he has a strong starting group at every position and even some higher upside guys like Lynch, Houshmandzadeh, and Royal sitting on his bench who could be weekly starters if they play well this season.”

The shakiest team drafted was: “I think probably Kareighuis’ team for me. I don’t ever like drafting a whole lot of players from one team and he’s putting huge faith in Dallas and further, he’s got guys who really end up canceling each other out in Felix, Barber, and Choice and then Austin and Bryant at WR as well. I also think that Matt Ryan has some upside but he could be a risky QB1 after last season, unless you’re overly strong at other positions which I don’t know that he is. I’d be concerned at RB depth for him.”

My experience with the draft was: “Pretty good. Always fun drafting with a group of knowledgeable people and getting some good debate going about different things.”

My take: Like QB Rodgers was for my team, Brees at the 2.09 presented great value compared to ADP, but it also shows the importance of drafting very well over the next several rounds as you have to “chase” players at RB and WR. What I mean is that the guy you are drafting as your RB2 is someone else’s RB3, or that second WR you are selecting is another teams’ third wideout.  As of the time of this writing, contract talks with Vincent Jackson are at an impasse, meaning that his selection in the third round could be disastrous for this squad in the likelihood of a protracted holdout.  When considering particularly the selection of Brees in the second round, this means that the RB2 and the flex spot could be issues.  Candidates include Jacobs, Forsett, and Cadillac at RB, and S. Moss and Knox at WR.  I liked the selection of Knox in the 10th.

bmorr8811:

QB – Brett Favre (7.05)
RB – Ray Rice (1.05)
RB – Matt Forte (5.05)
WR – Roddy White (2.08)
WR – Brandon Marshall (3.05)
RB/WR – Jahvid Best (4.08)
TE – Brent Celek (6.08)
K – Rob Bironas (15.05)
D/ST – DAL Cowboys (12.08)

Bench
QB – Joe Flacco (10.08)
RB – Chester Taylor (9.05), Bernard Scott (11.05)
WR – Devin Aromashodu (8.08), Laurent Robinson (13.05), Dwayne Jarrett (14.08)
TE – Aaron Hernandez (16.08)

My best pick was: “I’d say Ray Rice. I know, it’s a no-brainer at that point, but I feel that his presence allowed me to go out and get two elite level WRs and allow him to “carry the weight” of my RB crew. I have it to where since I’d have a lesser RB2, that hopefully one of Best, Forte, or Aromashodu hits their stride and provides the completeness, but I’ll take one out of three odds, rather than having to rely on one guy to be something they’re not. Rutgers!

My shakiest pick was: “I wouldn’t say shaky, but definitely most diputed was my Forte/Best picks in the fourth and fifth. The thing is I have one of two worlds and hope one pans out to their ceiling. Best’s ceiling is crazy high with big-play ability, and if Forte can be Martz’s Gore or Faulk, then he could enjoy a resurgence (if not, then maybe Taylor gets some touches). I like the situation, but others have voiced negative thoughts.”

My late round sleeper pick that I love is: “I love Aromashodu and Scott. Everyone’s worried about Benson’s health and durability — enter Harlon Hill winner and mini-CJ2K, Bernard Scott. It maybe a homer pick, but I love that guy. Then, give a Martz QB with Cutler’s type of cannon a big play-making WR and I like it. Expect big things this year — someone has to catch balls in Chi-town, so why not the big man!?”

My team would win the league championship if: “Brett Favre plays anything close to what he did last year. I like the Favre/Flacco duo at QB, but others don’t. If Favre is top five again, then I love my team; if not, then I like it with some looks at Flacco.”

The best team drafted (besides my own) was: “I like the way Biju’s and Seahawks’ teams came together, in particular.”

The shakiest team drafted was: “Honestly, I would feel a little wary owning Kareighus’ or Mattb’s team, with some of the more present day news coming in of players not playing til November, and injury and instability concerns.”

My experience with the draft was: “Awesome. I love a challenge, and while I didn’t get the guys I wanted to all the time, I think I have very good VALUE picks and that’s the key.”

My take:  I like this squad.  I think bmorr had perhaps the best three first rounds with Rice, Roddy White, and Marshall.  They key will be getting consistent production from the RB2 and flex spots.  One of those spots will likely be taken by a Chicago RB, as bmorr drafted both Forte and Taylor.  Bmorr also drafted guys with upside late; in particular, I liked the Flacco and Laurent Robinson picks.  His last selection is all upside with the rookie TE Hernandez.

aaawall91:

QB – Matt Schaub (4.07)
RB – Jonathan Stewart (2.07)
RB – Ricky Williams (5.06)
WR – Andre Johnson (1.06)
WR – Greg Jennings (3.06)
RB/WR – LaDanian Tomlinson (7.06)
TE – Jermichael Finley (6.07)
K – Stephen Gostkowski (14.07)
D/ST – NY Giants (15.06)

Bench
QB – Eli Manning (9.06)
RB – Donald Brown (8.07), Andre Brown (12.07)
WR – Mohamed Massaquoi (10.07), Devin Thomas (11.06), Austin Collie (13.06)
TE – Ben Watson (16.07)

My best pick was: “Ricky Williams in the fifth round. He finished in the top 10 four of his five (out of nine total) seasons he has played all 16 games, including last season.”

My shakiest pick was: “Mohamed Massaquoi in the 10th. As my third WR, in a league where we can start three, its risky. He could be a monster for Cleveland after a decent rookie WR season if his development continues, but he also has a lot of question marks.”

My late round sleeper pick that I love is: “Andre Brown. Jacobs is a shell of his former self and has had nagging injuries. Brown would be a great compliment to Bradshaw who has an injury history and is the type of back best used in limited time to maximize explosiveness, in my opinion.”

My team would win the league championship if: “J-Stew breaks out and/or LT returns to close to the form I think he is capable of.”

The best team drafted (besides my own) was: “I’m not in love with any through and through including my own. I like a lot of starting lineups, but I’m not a fan of benches such as those of seahawk506, indibuck, and Mattb47. And I would say they have the best rosters.”

The shakiest team drafted was: “There’s no clear shaky team for me. One or two rosters have a guy I completely would not draft, but some have a couple guys I wished I would have picked.”

My experience with the draft was: “It was a tougher draft than I expected, as many players I want didn’t fall to where I expected, and I struggled to find the value I typically do from basically Round 10 on.”

My take: I like his WRs (AJ, Jennings), QBs (Schaub, Eli) and tight end picks; I think his squad’s major weakness is RB.  Committee RB Stewart is his RB1, while the RB2/flex spots look to be manned by some combo of the ancient Ricky Williams, a washed up LT, and a guy who can’t pass block in Donald Brown, and if you can’t protect Peyton, you’re not going to see much action.  A lot of things would have to go right for this squad to be a contender.  Andre Brown in the 12th could easily outperform his draft slot and makes for a very nice sleeper.

biju:

QB – Tom Brady (5.07)
RB – Frank Gore (1.07)
RB – Cedric Benson (2.06)
WR – Marques Colston (3.07)
WR – Chad Ochocino (4.06)
RB/WR – Clinton Portis (6.06)
TE – Owen Daniels (8.06)
K – Lawrence Tynes (16.06)
D/ST – NY Jets (10.06)

Bench:
QB – Matt Leinart (15.07)
RB – Marshawn Lynch (11.07), Leon Washington (14.06)
WR – T.J. Houshmandzadeh (7.07), Eddie Royal (9.07), Terrell Owens (13.07)
TE – John Carlson (12.06)

My best pick was: “Tom Brady in the fifth. As the seventh overall QB taken I really thought he was undervalued in the draft and while I don’t normally pick QBs until around Rounds 7 or 8 it was the right time for me to grab him.”

My shakiest pick was: “Oddly enough, I think Ochocinco was my worst pick, not because he was the wrong pick in the fourth or even what I would call my ’shakiest pick,’ but from what happened with my next two picks. As the draft unfolded and Brady fell to me in the fifth, I quickly realized acquiring a flex spot in the sixth was going to be a nightmare. Because of this I shot for a guy who I think will get a consistent number of touches with some upside of maybe getting a larger load than expected. In this however, I picked Clinton Portis, who also may have the chance of getting ‘fewer’ touches than I expect. Because of this I needed to start selecting guys that are more boom/bust: Housh, Eddie Royal, Lynch, and T.O. Basically that single pick going to Chad instead of a third RB put me in a worse position than I would have wanted after five rounds.  So I submit, while Clinton Portis was my shakiest pick, it was the Ochocinco pick that set it all up.

My late round sleeper pick that I love is: “John Carlson. If Housh has really lost something and can’t get back to form, the only guy that will catch anything in Seattle will be John Carlson. His 2009 season was killed by the O-line woes when he was kept in to block, so his stock is low. But Seattle brought in Chris Baker and drafted Anthony McCoy to be blockers, and the early word out of OTAs is that Jeremy Bates is running a lot of two TE sets. This means Carlson will get sent out often. For this team, this means I might be able to deal Owen Daniels after Seattle’s Week 5 bye to acquire more RB or WR depth. He’s also solid insurance if Daniels can’t come back to his pre-injury form.”

My team would win the league championship if: “Portis takes command of the starting job in Washington and gets back to in 2008/2009 form. Otherwise I’ll likely need to be diligent with the waiver wire and work trades, or in other words, get a little lucky. But the team is set up nicely for this time of year, right out of the draft.”

The best team drafted (besides my own) was: “I don’t think anyone has mentioned him yet, but the Lung has had a very solid draft outside that Carson Palmer pick, but followed up with McNabb it looks pretty solid to me. Matt had a pretty great draft as well, although I’m not a fan of the Jacobs pick personally. For the most part, everyone had a reasonable draft actually.”

The shakiest team drafted was: “Again, I can see the logic on every team, But I think the teams that are relying on a solid rookie campaign or one-year breakouts would be the most concerning to me. I wouldn’t want to be the guy drafting Miles Austin as my #1 and then turn around a get Crabtree for a #2 (sorry Kareighuis), or Indibuck’s Nicks and Sims-Walker combo. For me personally, if I’m going to take a chance on one guy, I need the second WR to be a sure-thing.”

My experience with the draft was: “Cafe drafts are tough, period. This one was no exception.”

My take: Solid squad. Great 1-2 punch at RB with Gore and Benson, followed by solid WR picks and a steal getting Brady in the fifth round. I liked the pick of Carlson as an insurance policy to Daniels at TE. Leon Washington could be sneaky value in the 14th round if he can get back to playing shape quickly. He may have to if Portis can’t deliver for that flex spot. While his 10th round selection of the Jets D was widely panned by our panel, I didn’t think it was a bad pick, considering they are the consensus #1 defense, but I would have rather seen a RB at that spot, as Foster, Maroney, Larry Johnson, and Bernard Scott went off the board before his next pick. I have all those guys ranked above his next selection of Marshawn Lynch.

The Lung:

QB – Carson Palmer (8.05)
RB – Steven Jackson (1.08)
RB – Ronnie Brown (4.05)
WR – Calvin Johnson (2.05)
WR – Anquan Boldin (3.08)
RB/WR – Percy Harvin (5.08)
TE – Jason Witten (6.05)
K – Nate Kaeding (14.05)
D/ST – BAL Ravens (11.08)

Bench
QB – Donovan McNabb (10.05)
RB – Jerome Harrison (7.08), Ahmad Bradshaw (9.08), Jason Snelling (15.08)
WR – Nate Burleson (13.08), Earl Bennett (16.05)
TE – Dustin Keller (12.05)

The Lung declined to answer his questionnaire, so you only get …

My take: Another solid squad, particularly if Ronnie Brown can come back from his Lisfranc injury. Calvin, Boldin, and Harvin make up a solid triumvirate of WRs. QB is likely to be an issue with only Palmer and McNabb available; both are guys that I view as no better that mediocre backups in most leagues. I also liked the picks of Harrison and Bradshaw, both provide value for their draft slot and shore up depth for the RB2/flex spots.

da bears:

QB – Jay Cutler (8.04)
RB – DeAngelo Williams (1.09)
RB – LeSean McCoy (4.04)
WR – Randy Moss (2.04)
WR – Sidney Rice (3.09)
RB/WR – Michael Bush (5.09)
TE – Chris Cooley (10.4)
K – Robbie Gould (15.09)
D/ST – Chicago Bears (13.09)

Bench:
QB – Chad Henne (12.04)
RB – Steve Slaton (6.04), Ben Tate (7.09), Tim Hightower (11.09)
WR – Braylon Edwards (9.09), Golden Tate (14.04), Mario Manningham (16.04)

My best pick was: “Tim Hightower, 11th round. You have to assume they run the ball a good chunk more this season and Wells has never been the healthiest guy, especially given his running style. If you’re into handcuffing I’d say Hightower is definitely one person should look at stealing late this year, especially in PPR leagues.”

My shakiest pick was: “Tate/Slaton. A week or two after these picks were made, lots of praise seemed to have been going towards Foster. This group may have the biggest boom or bust potential of any backfield mess in the league.”

My late round sleeper pick that I love is: “Chad Henne. He gets Brandon Marshall, and little else needs to be said there. He’ll be a very serviceable player this season, especially in deeper leagues.”

My team would win the league championship if: “Slaton or Tate take the starting spot in Houston. Since that team is going to be a top 3-5 offense this year, there are lots of points to be had out of this backfield.”

The best team drafted (besides my own) was: “Thriftyrocker and it really might not even be close at the moment. Guys just seemed to fall to him. His WRs may be a little weak, but with the need to technically only start two of them in a non-PPR league I don’t think that really ends up hurting his team as much with the rest of the talent there.”

The shakiest team drafted was: “C4L in my opinion has the shakiest team at the moment. Kolb is a sexy pick, but he’s still only played in a handful of games. Let’s see what happens when defensive coordinators get hold of some more of his game films. I was very high on Moreno last year, and maybe I’m just a skeptic after owning him last year. Fitzgerald also scares me a lot, given his first/second round price tag with the playboy Leinart throwing him the ball. I do really like the Wayne/Driver/Chambers picks though.”

My experience with the draft was: “A little tougher than usual, as I’ve definitely been very busy lately. It’s always great to hear other people’s opinions on certain players, as we all tend to be high on different players, which will definitely help everyone involved going forward. It’s always fun being involved in these mocks and seeing how they change month to month.”

If you could change one pick, you would: “I would have went with Greene instead of DeAngelo in the first round. I still think DeAngelo has a fine year and does what he’s basically done in the previous two years, but Greene has more potential to jump up this year to being a top-five player behind that o-line.”

My take: There’s a question mark at every pick for da bears. Will D-Will get enough opportunity to give RB1 numbers? Can Randy Moss still defeat extra coverage, especially if Welker can’t start the season healthy? Does Favre come back and look for Sidney Rice as often? Does McCoy get a chance to get TD carries, especially important in a non-PPR league? Does Michael Bush beat out D-Mac? I understand taking Slaton and Tate, but he didn’t get Arian Foster, who may end up being the main RB in Houston. Cutler is a huge boom/bust gamble, especially in leagues that penalize interceptions. Hightower was tremendous value in the 11th round; even if Beanie gets a majority of the carries in Arizona, there should be enough opportunities for Hightower to produce in a pinch. There’s no guarantee that Beanie stays healthy all year, which would make Hightower a legit RB2 or RB3 if the Cardinals do indeed run more than last year.

Cowboys 4 life:

QB – Kevin Kolb (8.03)
RB – Knowshon Moreno (3.10)
RB – Joseph Addai (4.03)
WR – Reggie Wayne (1.10)
WR – Larry Fitzgerald (2.03)
RB/WR – Regie Bush (6.03)
TE – Kellen Winslow (10.03)
K – Mason Crosby (16.03)
D/ST – New Orleans Saints (11.10)

Bench
QB – Alex Smith (14.03)
RB – Darren Sproles (9.10), Correll Buckhalter (13.10)
WR – Donald Driver (5.10), Steve Breaston (7.10), Chris Chambers (12.03)
TE – Kevin Boss (15.10)

My best pick was: “I thought my best pick was Addai in the fourth round. The guy was a top-10 back in standard leagues last year and out-performed guys like S-Jax, J-Stew, DeAngelo, Benson, and others in less games.”

My shakiest pick was: “Reggie Wayne in the first. There are 4-5 WRs that are all close, and I didn’t give drafting Wayne much thought. In hindsight, I would have drafted Fitz, whom I ended up getting in Round 2.”

My late round sleeper pick that I love is: “Chris Chambers. In nine games he put up better stats than Bowe did in 11. To me, taking Chambers in the 12th versus Bowe in the sixth is a no-brainer. Chambers’ numbers will end up real close to those of Bowe by year’s end, and Chambers will be better value.”

My team would win the league championship if: “I had a decent schedule without many career days by the opponent, topped off with a little luck to overcome the late first-round pick.”

The best team drafted (besides my own) was: “I like The Lung’s team. He is just above average at the QB spot and solid but not exceptional at the RB spot. He has three really good WRs and two very solid TEs. D should be good. Overall, that is a well-balanced team.”

The shakiest team drafted was: “Kareighuis’ team.”

My experience with the draft was: “Basically the same as the early mock where I took over a team also drafting 10th. You have to think outside the box on the turn or you end up settling for a lesser player than the guys with earlier picks. I decided to go WR-WR, which I thought would kill me and something I have never done before. I ended up with two top 15 or so RBs (one possibly in the top 10) instead of a definite top 10 RB or two. Overall I am happy with the team drafted.”

My take: I agree with most of Cowboy’s self-analysis. Wayne is not a first-round pick in a 12-team, non-PPR league. This squad could be formidable if Moreno can hold off Buckhalter in Denver and Addai can hold off Donald Brown in Indianapolis. The selection of Addai shows that very good RB options can indeed be found in the fourth round, especially if you look at elite WR options in the first two rounds with a late draft slot. I like the selection of Kolb, but only if you pair him with another guy of similar value and opportunity, and Alex Smith doesn’t fit that description. I would have to say that QB is his potential weakpoint.

Kareighuis:

QB – Matt Ryan (8.02)
RB – Shonn Greene (1.11)
RB – Felix Jones (4.02)
WR – Miles Austin (2.02)
WR – Michael Crabtree (3.11)
RB/WR – Pierre Garcon (5.11)
TE – Zach Miller (10.02)
K – David Akers (15.11)
D/ST – Miami Dolphins (13.11)

Bench
QB – Mark Sanchez (14.02)
RB – Marion Barber (6.02), Tashard Choice (9.11), Kevin Smith (11.11)
WR – Dez Bryant (7.11), Josh Cribbs (12.02), Darius Heyward-Bey (16.02)

My best pick was: “I hate drafting at the ends, because you’re forced to often reach again and again. Miles Austin, however, wasn’t a home-run swing of a pick. He was drafted as the third WR and has a very good chance of being a top-five WR, perhaps even the #1 overall. Considering the rest of my draft was filled with guys taken early, the Miles pick might have been closest to ADP.”

My shakiest pick was: “Felix Jones. Picking him as my RB2, in a league you flex out to three RBs, put me in a bit of a hole. I felt compelled to handcuff him with Barber two rounds later, then reach for Choice three rounds after. Three picks in the first nine rounds were used to secure one RB spot. Ultimately, I figured if two of them get the majority of Dallas’ carries (rather than a three-way mess), I secure the running game of 2009’s seventh most productive ground attack.”

My late round sleeper pick that I love is: “The Cribbs pick. His game-breaking ability and abundance of opportunity gives him great upside and makes him an excellent value pick in the 12th round.”

My team would win the league championship if: “Dallas maintains its offensive efficiency. With Felix Jones, Barber, Choice, Austin and Dez Bryant, I have nearly all the potential Cowboy producers locked up. Ideally, two of these RBs would be every-week starters with Greene.”

The best team drafted (besides my own) was: “either Mattb47’s or biju’s team. Matt waited for his RB2, but still landed Jacobs and Forsett. Carnell and LJ were good later round picks that could earn repeated starts. The WRs are rather weak, specifically the depth, but V-Jax and NY’s Smith are quality starters. Biju went against the grain and used his first two picks on Gore and Benson. His WR spots didn’t suffer, as Colston and Ochocinco followed them up. Brady and Daniels were quality picks and Portis, Housh and Daniels could provide quality starts. The Jets defense was an early pick, but given his depth made sense.”

The shakiest team drafted was: “Uh, other than my own? Aaawall’s would have me worried. Relying on J-Stew as my RB1, and hoping to get two startable RBs from Tomlinson, Donald Brown and Ricky Williams would keep me up at night. Generally, teams either loaded up with RBs or WRs. This team’s issues at RB aren’t compensated for, in my eyes, at WR. I wouldn’t be happy with The Lung’s team, either. The first five picks have persistent injury concerns, but relying on S-Jax and Ronnie as my top two RBs, with Jerome Harrison and Ahmad Bradshaw backing them, wouldn’t give me any comfort. Through 12 rounds, he had only three WRs on the roster: Calvin Johnson, Boldin and Harvin.”

My experience with the draft was: “Most of my leagues have a RB and RB/WR flex. Drafting for a league with 2 RB spots and a RB/WR flex killed the RB depth quickly. An enjoyable experience.”

My take: Kareighus has enough Cowboys on his team to make Jerry Jones blush. I understand that the Cowboys could have a very explosive offense in 2010, but he’s putting all his eggs in one basket. A weak Cowboys offensive performance in any given week is likely a loss for this squad. A Tony Romo injury spells D-O-O-M. I liked the pick of Zach Miller in the 10th; he’s a quality TE with upside, and this proves that you can (and likely should) wait on a TE after the top three are gone.

TruNinerFan:

QB – Peyton Manning (3.12)
RB – Rashard Mendenhall (1.12)
RB – Ryan Matthews (2.01)
WR – Steve Smith (CAR) (4.1)
WR – Dwayne Bowe (6.01)
RB/WR – Fred Jackson (5.12)
TE – Tony Gonzalez (7.12)
K – Ryan Longwell (16.01)
D/ST – San Francisco 49ers (13.12)

Bench
QB – David Garrard (15.11)
RB – Willis McGahee (10.01), Derrick Ward (11.12)
WR – Mike Wallace (8.01), Kenny Britt (9.12), Lee Evans (12.01), Julian Edelman (14.01)

My best pick was: “Peyton Manning (3.12). Manning is as steady as a player can be. You know that he is going to play every game, throw 30 TDs and not many INTs. Manning is a second-round pick in a lot of drafts, so I feel great about getting him at 3.12.”

My shakiest pick was: “Steve Smith (CAR) 4.01. I would have said this even before he broke his arm playing flag football. I have never been a Steve Smith fan — he plays on a run first team with a shaky QB, and I don’t like him as my #1 WR, but that’s what happens when you wait until the fourth round in a 12-team draft to take a WR.”

My late round sleeper that I love is: “Juilan Edelman (14.01). I think Edelamn is an absolute steal this late. I actually considered him in the 12th round. I don’t buy the fact that Welker will be ready when the season starts. Edelman will play the Welker role in NE and could see a ton of targets with Moss drawing double coverage.”

My team would win the championsip if: “Matthews is the stud that I think he will be and my top two WRs play up to their abilities.”

The best team drafted besiders my own: “Bmor8811. If Favre returns, he has a stud QB, two stud WRs, a super-stud RB and a guy in Best with a lot of potential. I also like Forte pick — I think that he is very undervalued this year.”

The shakiest team drafted was: “Aaawall91. I wouldn’t want my top two RBs to not even be the #1 RBs on their own teams. Plus, having LT as a starting flex player is brutual. I personally think that LT is finished.”

My experience with this draft was: “I was disapointed with having the 12th pick. I love picks 1-4 this year, but I think I made the best of it. I liked drafting with 11 guys that really know fantasy football, it makes the draft much more interesting, and the teams are pretty even. Some guys that I thought would drop were taken.”

My take: A somewhat bold move to take rookie Ryan Mathews at 13 overall, but he figures to get most of the first and second down carries, as well as the goal-line looks. Plus, it’s a nice pairing with Mendenhall. Manning at 36 overall is excellent value for the most consistent QB in the game. WR is a weak point, but there’s enough quantity (Carolina’s Steve Smith, Bowe, Wallace, Britt, Evans) that he should be able to field two each week. The key to this squad’s success will be Fred Jackson holding off C.J. Spiller.

Players drafted (by position):

QB:
2.09. Drew Brees
2.10. Aaron Rogers
3.12. Peyton Manning
4.07. Matt Schaub
4.12. Tony Romo
5.02. Phillip RIvers
5.07. Tom Brady
7.05. Brett Favre
8.02. Matt Ryan
8.03. Kevin Kolb
8.04. Jay Cutler
8.05. Carson Palmer
9.06. Eli Manning
10.05. Donovan McNabb
10.08. Joe Flacco
10.11. Ben Rothlisberger
12.04. Chad Henne
12.09. Matt Moore
12.10. Matthew Stafford
14.02. Mark Sanchez
14.03. Alex Smith
15.07. Matt Leinart
15.12. David Garrard

RB:
1.01. Chris Johnson
1.02. Adrian Peterson
1.03. Maurice Jones-Drew
1.04. Michael Turner
1.05. Ray Rice
1.07. Frank Gore
1.08. Steven Jackson
1.09. DeAngelo Williams
1.11. Shonn Greene
1.12. Rashard Mendenhall
2.01. Ryan Matthews
2.06. Cedric Benson
2.07. Jonathan Stewart
2.12. Jamaal Charles
3.01. Beanie Wells
3.02. Ryan Grant
3.03. Pierre Thomas
3.10. Knowshon Moreno
4.02. Felix Jones
4.03. Joseph Addai
4.04. LeSean McCoy
4.05. Ronnie Brown
4.08. Javid Best
5.04. Brandon Jacobs
5.05. Matt Forte
5.06. Ricky Williams
5.09. Michael Bush
5.12. Fred Jackson
6.02. Marion Barber
6.03. Reggie Bush
6.04. Steve Slaton
6.06. Clinton Portis
6.09. Justin Forsett
7.01. C.J. Spiller
7.03. Darren McFadden
7.06. LaDainian Tomlinson
7.08. Jerome Harrison
7.09. Ben Tate
8.07. Donald Brown
8.11. Thomas Jones
9.03. Montario Hardesty
9.04. Cadillac Williams
9.05. Chester Taylor
9.08. Ahmad Bradshaw
9.10. Darren Sproles
9.11. Tashard Choice
10.01. Willis McGahee
11.01. Arian Foster
11.03. Laurence Maroney
11.04. Larry Johnson
11.05. Bernard Scott
11.07. Marshawn Lynch
11.09. Tim Hightower
11.11. Kevin Smith
11.12. Derrick Ward
12.07. Andre Brown
13.04. Toby Gerhart
13.10. Correl Buckhalter
14.06. Leon Washington
15.03. James Davis
15.08. Jason Snelling
16.11. James Starks

WR:
1.06. Andre Johnson
1.10. Reggie Wayne
2.02. Miles Austin
2.03. Larry Fitzgerald
2.04. Randy Moss
2.05. Calvin Johnson
2.08. Roddy White
2.11. DeSean Jackson
3.04. Vincent Jackson
3.05. Brandon Marshall
3.06. Greg Jennings
3.07. Marques Colston
3.08. Anquan Boldin
3.09. Sidney Rice
3.11. Michael Crabtree
4.01. Steve Smith (CAR)
4.06. Chad Ochocinco
4.09. Steve Smith (NYG)
4.10. Hakeem Nicks
5.08. Percy Harvin
5.10. Donald Driver
5.11. Pierre Garcon
6.01. Dwayne Bowe
6.10. Mike Sims-Walker
6.11. Wes Welker
6.12. Hines Ward
7.02. Robert Meachem
7.04. Santana Moss
7.07. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
7.10. Steve Breaston
7.11. Dez Bryant
8.01. Mike Wallace
8.08. Devin Aromashodu
8.10. Devin Hester
8.12. Santonio Holmes
9.01. Jeremy Maclin
9.02. Antonio Bryant
9.07. Eddie Royal
9.09. Braylon Edwards
9.12. Kenny Britt
10.07. Mohamed Massaquoi
10.09. Johnny Knox
10.10. Derrick Mason
10.12. Malcolm Floyd
11.02. Demaryius Thomas
11.06. Devin Thomas
12.01. Lee Evans
12.02. Josh Cribbs
12.03. Chris Chambers
12.12. Dexter McCluster
13.01. Chaz Schilens
13.03. Jabar Gaffney
13.05. Laurent Robinson
13.06. Austin Collie
13.07. Terrell Owens
13.08. Nate Burleson
14.01. Julian Edelman
14.04. Golden Tate
14.08. Dwyane Jarrett
14.09. Harry Douglas
14.12. Jacoby Jones
15.02. Jerricho Cotchery
16.02. Darrius Heyward-Bey
16.04. Mario Manningham
16.05. Earl Bennett

TE:
4.11. Antonio Gates
5.01. Dallas Clark
5.03. Vernon Davis
6.05. Jason Witten
6.07. Jermichael Finley
6.08. Brent Celek
7.12. Tony Gonzalez
8.06. Owen Daniels
8.09. Visanthe Shiancoe
10.02. Zach Miller (OAK)
10.03. Kellen Winslow
10.04. Chris Cooley
12.05. Dustin Keller
12.06. John Carlson
12.11. Heath Miller
15.10. Kevin Boss
16.07. Ben Watson
16.08. Aaron Hernandez

D/ST:
10.06. New York Jets
11.08. Baltimore Ravens
11.10. New Orleans Saints
12.08. Dallas Cowboys
13.02. Green Bay Packers
13.09. Chicago Bears
13.11. Miami Dolphins
13.12. San Francisco 49ers
14.10. Minnesota Vikings
15.01. Philadelphia Eagles
15.04. Pittsburgh Steelers
15.06. New York Giants

K:
14.05. Nate Kaeding
14.07. Stephen Gostkowski
14.11. Garrett Hartley
15.05. Rob Bironas
15.09. Robbie Gould
15.11. David Akers
16.01. Ryan Longwell
16.03. Mason Crosby
16.06. Lawrence Tynes
16.09. Dan Carpenter
16.10. Adam Vinatieri
16.12. David Buehler

I hope you have enjoyed the draft and the insights into why teams drafted as they did. Comments and questions are always welcomed. Good luck to you and your drafts this year!

 
Brendan grew up in Columbus, OH, as a college football nut; he has since evolved into an avid NFL fan and year-round fantasy geek. Brendan and his family now call Indiana home. Brendan posts under the name Indibuck.
 
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One Response to “2010 Early Mock Draft — Part II”

  1. User avatar seahawks506 says:

    Good stuff man!

    ReplyReply

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