Mock DraftsAugust 19, 2010


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2010 Cafe Experts PPR Mock (Rounds 1-8) - 2 comments

By Michael Hawes

Well, we have always talked about getting some of the brightest Cafe members together for a mock draft, and it finally happened this year. The term “expert” is one that I don’t think any of us like or would call ourselves, but those participating in this mock have helped enough Cafe members that they have been deemed “experts” (much to our dismay) by our fellow members using a voting process.

The rules were straight forward, with an 18-round slow draft being held here at the Cafe with the following starting requirements and scoring: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST and 1 K. QB scoring is 1/25 and 4 per TD. All other skill positions were 1/10 and 6 per TD.

Draft participants and their seeding were.

1.01 moochman
1.02 Sex Panther
1.03 Dan Lambskin
1.04 bungle613
1.05 Kareighuis
1.06 cowboys4life
1.07 WaCougMBS
1.08 thriftyrocker
1.09 bazzy_51
1.10 aaawall91
1.11 mattb47
1.12 da bears

ROUND 1

1.01 Chris Johnson – RB, TEN
1.02 Maurice Jones-Drew – RB, JAX
1.03 Adrian Peterson – RB, MIN
1.04 Ray Rice – RB, BAL
1.05 Frank Gore – RB, SF
1.06 Michael Turner – RB, ATL
1.07 Andre Johnson – WR, HOU
1.08 Larry Fitzgerald – WR, ARI
1.09 DeAngelo Williams – RB, CAR
1.10 Randy Moss – WR, NE
1.11 Steven Jackson – RB, STL
1.12 Reggie Wayne – WR, IND

Only one big surprise for me in Round 1 and that was Larry Fitzgerald at 8. I was expecting a little bit of a knock in the rankings with old man Warner calling it quits. Steven Jackson slipped a bit from past years but injury concerns continue to follow him and he really is on a bad team. I can not raise any serious doubts with any of the other draft picks made in the first round.

ROUND 2
2.01 Brandon Marshall – WR, MIA
2.02 Miles Austin – WR, DAL
2.03 Aaron Rodgers – QB, GB
2.04 Calvin Johnson – WR, DET
2.05 Rashard Mendenhall – RB, PIT
2.06 Roddy White – WR, ATL
2.07 Ryan Grant – RB, GB
2.08 Shonn Greene – RB, NYJ
2.09 Jamaal Charles – RB, KC
2.10 Drew Brees – QB, NO
2.11 DeSean Jackson – WR, PHI
2.12 Beanie Wells – RB, ARI

Now here is where a draft really starts to happen. Picks 1-12 are usually very vanilla, not many surprises. The second round is where opinions start to show, and it starts right from pick 2.01, with Marshall being chosen as the 5th best WR in a PPR format.  I have slightly different rankings, but I have seen the second tier of WRs so jumbled in drafts this year that I can’t fault any of the WR picks in Round 2. Grant and Greene were a bit of a surprise with the PPR scoring as neither really has any pass-catching ability. Thankfully, the first QBs came off the board in Round 2 and not Round 1, or I would have had to write an entire essay on that.

ROUND 3

3.01 Marques Colston – WR, NO
3.02 Greg Jennings – WR, GB
3.03 Sidney Rice – WR, MIN
3.04 Peyton Manning – QB, IND
3.05 Knowshon Moreno – RB, DEN
3.06 Steve Smith – WR, NYG
3.07 Matt Forte – RB, CHI
3.08 Ryan Mathews – RB, SD
3.09 LeSean McCoy – RB, PHI
3.10 Jonathan Stewart – RB, CAR
3.11 Steve Smith – WR, CAR
3.12 Pierre Thomas – RB, NO

A run of WRs starts off the round dominated by RBs. Matt Forte was the most talked about pick with the general consensus being way too early. His current ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator is 4.05, so the pick was not that far off but is still a reach.  I was also a bit surprised that Pierre Thomas fell behind guys like Stewart, McCoy and Moreno. Pierre is the starting RB on a high-powered offense and a great pick for an RB2.

ROUND 4

4.01 Tom Brady – QB, NE
4.02 Joseph Addai – RB, IND
4.03 Michael Crabtree – WR, SF
4.04 Anquan Boldin – WR, BAL
4.05 Cedric Benson – RB, CIN
4.06 Dallas Clark – TE, IND
4.07 Hines Ward – WR – PIT
4.08 Chad Ochocinco – WR, CIN
4.09 Antonio Gates – TE, SD
4.10 Ronnie Brown – RB, MIA
4.11 Felix Jones – RB, DAL
4.12 Dwayne Bowe – WR, KC

The first TEs come off the board in the fourth round, with Dallas Clark still ahead of Antonio Gates in the rankings. Both are solid picks with PPR scoring. Almost every pick was bang on in the fourth with owners filling out their starting lineups with RB2s  and the tail end of the elite WRs, receivers that can turn in WR1 performances on any given Sunday.  To me, Benson was the best pick in the round. If he had played all 16 games last year, he would have been a top 15 RB even in PPR, but he goes as the 21st RB off the board here.

 ROUND 5

5.01 Jahvid Best – RB, DET
5.02 Percy Harvin – WR, MIN
5.03 Donald Driver – WR, GB
5.04 Hakeem Nicks – WR, NYG
5.05 Tony Romo – QB, DAL
5.06 Matt Schaub – QB, HOU
5.07 Philip Rivers – QB, SD
5.08 Mike Sims-Walker – WR, JAX
5.09 Vincent Jackson – WR, SD
5.10 Ricky Williams – RB, MIA
5.11 Jermichael Finley – TE, GB
5.12 Jerome Harrison – RB, CLE

And now for the risks. Almost all the top tier is gone at each position and now you have to start digging and projecting who is going to have the exceptional season and outplay their ADPs. Best, Harvin and Nicks are great picks. All have the potential to easily surpass their current ADPs. Next, a quick run of some top QBs at exactly the right time leads into a very questionable pick, yet a pick most people are still making. Vincent Jackson at 5.09 is way too early. If he is traded, if he signs a tender, if he gets an extension, sure. But everything about him is an “if” right now, and it is too early to draft an “if” when you still need to fill starting slots. Finley and Harrison finish off the round, one a great pick, the other, time will tell. Finley is the darling of the TEs this year, and some are calling him the next elite TE with the potential to be the best in the NFL. The other is Jerome Harrison, the career highlight reel. The problem is that he only has six highlights in four years in the NFL. Always dinged up, he puts up way too many horrible statlines to warrant going this high.

 ROUND 6

6.01 Pierre Garcon – WR, IND
6.02 Jay Cutler – QB, CHI
6.03 Robert Meachem – WR, NO
6.04, Brent Celek – TE, PHI
6.05 Vernon Davis – TE, SF
6.06 Mike Wallace – WR, PIT
6.07 Jason Witten – TE, DAL
6.08 Wes Welker – WR, NE
6.09 Brandon Jacobs – RB, NYG
6.10 Tony Gonzalez – TE, ATL
6.11 Kevin Kolb – QB, PHI
6.12 Santana Moss – WR, WAS

Pierre Garcon is the second Pierre to be drafted in the first six rounds, which is kind of odd when you think about it. He’s another trendy pick after his solid 2009 rookie campaign. The next four TEs go off the board in reasonable order. The top tier of QBs are gone, and this is the perfect time to jump on two QBs that could crack the top five by year’s end. Cutler is now in that fantasy heaven for QBs, Martzworld. Kevin Kolb may just be the real deal and has a solid group of young talented skill players surrounding him. Jacobs was my pick and I regret it. He just doesn’t put up the numbers in PPR to warrant going here.

ROUND 7
7.01 Owen Daniels – TE, HOU
7.02 Reggie Bush – RB, NO
7.03 T.J. Houshmandzadeh – WR, SEA
7.04 Justin Forsett – RB, SEA
7.05 Michael Bush – RB, OAK
7.06 Marion Barber – RB, DAL
7.07 Ben Tate – RB, HOU
7.08 Jeremy Maclin – WR, PHI
7.09 C.J. Spiller – RB, BUF
7.10 Ladanian Tomlinson – RB, SD
7.11 Clinton Portis – RB, WAS
7.12 Darren McFadden – RB, OAK

The seventh round is the flier round for me. Most of your starting requirements have been met, and this is the time to shop for that player who could be multiple rounds above his ADP by the end of the year. Several of the drafters in this mock hold that same philosophy. Daniels, Reggie Bush, Forsett, Michael Bush, Spiller and even Portis and McFadden all fall into that category for me. Daniels, if he recovers very well from what I believe is his third knee surgery, is a top-five TE, maybe even in the top three. Both Reggie and Clinton have already been elite at one time; really, not that long ago. Michael Bush and Spiller may be the most talented backs on their teams and, if given the chance, could put up solid fantasy numbers.  

ROUND 8
8.01 Montario Hardesty – RB, CLE
8.02 Malcolm Floyd – WR, SD
8.03 Donald Brown – RB, IND
8.04 Matt Ryan – QB, Atl
8.05 Ahmad Bradshaw – RB, NYG
8.06 Steve Slaton – RB, HOU
8.07 Steve Breaston – WR, AZ
8.08 Dez Bryant – WR, DAL
8.09 Kenny Britt – WR, TEN
8.10 Cadillac Williams – RB, TB
8.11 Derrick Mason – WR, BAL
8.12 Eli Manning – QB, NYG

Round 8 is very similar to Round 7. Most are still looking for that breakthrough guy, while a couple others opted to fill in some starting holes in their lineup. I love Ryan this year and expect him to take a huge leap in fantasy terms. Eli is going the reverse for me. He had a great year in 2009 but more because he had to with the limited run game that New York was putting on the field.  Can the New York Giants offensive coordinator ignore the three very good WRs Eli has and revert back to the run? Well, that is the early reports. Hardesty, Slaton, Dez and Kenny Britt all have high ceilings and are well worth the risk here. Bradshaw is my favorite pick in this round. He could be an absolute steal here.

Rounds 9 through 18 are still ongoing, and an update on those, as well as a final wrap-up, will follow in the coming weeks.

 
Michael Hawes is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Michael in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of bungle613.
 
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2 Responses to “2010 Cafe Experts PPR Mock (Rounds 1-8)”

  1. Treyvian says:

    Personally I like the Harrison pick in the 5th round I believe he is put in a position to do very well this year. However I do NOT like the pick of Crabtree in the 4th there are too many other recievers out there I believe to have proven more (at least to me) still available at that time. The steals of this draft to me has to be Cutler dropping to the 6th an C.J. Spiller in the 7th. I personally have both of these players ranked higher than that. Also some of my ranked players are undrafted here. Good Luck Everyone in your 2010 Fantasy Football.

    ReplyReply
  2. User avatar bungle613 says:

    Thanks for the comments Treyvian. We just differ on opinions for Harrison. I can’t draft him that high based on really 3 games of stats. If you exclude I think 5 games that he broke long TD’s or had very good games he would be classified as a monumental bust. I hope you are right as the league needs exciting playmakers but it won’t be me drafting him.

    I tend to agree with you a bit on Crabtree. Safer picks were there but he is a high ceiling guy that can make a FF team elite. HE put up solid numbers last year even after a lenghthy holdout.

    Cutler is decent value in the 6th but a terrible o-line and the amount of picks he throws knocks him down. Spiller was drafted at the time when all 3 Buffalo backs were healthy, I would guess the pick was made approx. 2 1/2 weeks ago.

    I still have rounds 9-18 to publish so hopefully all your ranked players will be inlcluded but if you have a sleeper or two, let me know, we all need as much help as we can get.

    ReplyReply

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