Mock DraftsJune 22, 2010


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2010 Early Mock Draft — Part 1 - 1 comments

By Brendan Morris

Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson (R) runs past Seattle Seahawks corner back Kelly Jennings in their game against the Seahawks at Qwest Field in Seattle on January 3, 2010. Johnson ran for 134 yards on 36 carries, scored two touchdowns and became the sixth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season, then scored the go-ahead touchdown on a 1-yard run with 4:33 remaining to send the Tennessee Titans to a 17-13 victory over the Seattle Seahawks in the season finale Sunday.(UPI /Jim Bryant) Photo via Newscom

It’s never too early for a mock draft, especially for 12 guys that follow fantasy football year-round.  Who are the hot names this year?  Who is a sleeper?  Who is overvalued?  We look to analyze some of the picks and trends that emerged in the first ten rounds of this early 2010 mock draft.

This draft began at the end of May as a slow draft with up to 24 hours for an owner to make a selection.  Most picks were made much quicker and we reached the end of round ten by June 21st.

League scoring and rules:

1) Snake draft.
2) 9 starters, 7 bench.
3) Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 “flex” RB/WR/TE, TE, DST, K.
4) Passing TDs = 4; Rushing/Receiving TDs = 6
5) No Points Per Reception (PPR); no return yardage points; return TDs go to DST.

Our esteemed panel of drafters were (in draft order):

Team 1:  thriftyrocker
Team 2:  seahawks506
Team 3:  indibuck
Team 4:   mattb47
Team 5:  bmor8811
Team 6:  aaawall91
Team 7:  biju
Team 8:  The Lung
Team 9:  da bears
Team 10:  Cowboys 4 life
Team 11:  Kareighuis
Team 12:  TruNinerFan

Round 1:

1.01  RB Chris Johnson, TEN

1.02  RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

1.03  RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX

1.04  RB Michael Turner, ATL

1.05  RB Ray Rice, BAL

1.06  WR Andre Johnson, HOU

1.07  RB Frank Gore, SF

1.08  RB Steven Jackson, STL

1.09  RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR

1,10  WR Reggie Wayne, IND

1.11  RB Shonn Greene, NYJ

1.12  RB Rashard Mendenhall, PIT

Notes/Analysis:  10 RBs and 2 WRs selected.  Even with (and maybe because of — more on this later) the proliferation of the passing game in the NFL,  workhorse backs ruled the roost when it came to top picks.

There was some discussion as to Michael Turner being selected fourth overall. Reggie Wayne’s first round selection also sparked debate.

Unlike many mock drafts that I have seen this year, there were no QBs selected in the first round.

Round 2:

2.01  RB Ryan Matthews, SD

2.02  WR Miles Austin, DAL

2.03  WR Larry Fitzgerald, AZ

2.04  WR Randy Moss, NE

2.05  WR Calvin Johnson, DET

2.06  RB Cedric Benson, CIN

2.07  RB Jonathon Stewart, CAR

2.08  WR Roddy White, ATL

2.09  QB Drew Brees, NO

2.10  QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

2.11  WR DeSean Jackson, PHI

2.12  RB Jamaal Charles, KC

Notes/Analysis: The beginning of the second round featured a run on WRs, and 6 of the 12 picks were WRs.  Three teams elected to go RB/RB with their first two picks while Cowboys 4 life choose to go WR/WR.

SD RB Ryan Matthews was the 13th overall pick.  TruNinerFan explained that he loved the rookie’s upside and opportunity.  aaawall91 drafted Jonathon Stewart at 2.07. He is counting on Stewart to perform as a RB1 with his selection of Andre Johnson in the first round.

The first and second QBs off the board didn’t come until the 21st and 22nd picks, representing good value versus their current Average Draft Positions (ADP).

Round 3:

3.01  RB Beanie Wells, AZ

3.02  RB Ryan Grant, GB

3.03  RB Pierre Thomas, NO

3.04  WR Vincent Jackson, SD

3.05  WR Brandon Marshall, MIA

3.06  WR Greg Jennings, GB

3.07  WR Marques Colston, NO

3.08  WR Anquan Boldin, BAL

3.09  WR Sidney Rice, MIN

3.10  RB Knowshon Moreno, DEN

3.11  WR Michael Crabtree, SF

3.12  QB Peyton Manning, IND

Notes/Analysis: 1 QB, 4 RBs, and a whopping 7 WRs were taken in round 3.  Three teams have yet to pick a WR at this point, meaning nine teams own 15 WRs among them.  In other words, half of the teams in the league decided to draft 1 RB and 2 WRs with their first 3 picks.  Of those teams, all of them drafted at the 5th spot or later in the first round.  Thriftyrocker did the opposite and went “old school” — RB/RB/RB.  He explained that he liked the RBs there better than WRs and QBs that were available to him. Knowing that he can start 3 RBs with the RB/WR/TE flex position, he chose Beanie Wells at 3.01.

I am somewhat surprised by the number of WRs drafted so far.  I believe this trend is a reflection of the NFL’s progression from a running league to a passing league.  The feeling of many owners is to look at acquiring at least one strong WR in the first two rounds to offset the lack of depth of workhorse RBs.  The days of automatically drafting RB/RB the first two rounds are over.

Round 4:

4.01  WR Steve Smith, CAR

4.02  RB Felix Jones, DAL

4.03  RB Joseph Addai, IND

4.04  RB LeSean McCoy, PHI

4.05  RB Ronnie Brown, MIA

4.06  WR Chad Ochocinco, CIN

4.07  QB Matt Schaub, HOU

4.08  RB Jahvid Best, DET

4.09  WR Steve Smith, NYG

4.10  WR Hakeem Nicks, NYG

4.11  TE Antonio Gates, SD

4.12  QB Tony Romo, DAL

Notes/Analysis: First TE comes off the board (Gates #47 overall).  aaawall91 pairs Schaub with his first round pick of Andre Johnson.  Cowboys 4 life gets a second solid RB after starting WR/WR.

Hakeem Nicks was questioned as being a bit of a reach, although thriftyrocker said he would have likely taken Nicks/and or Gates had they made it to the bottom of the round.

Round 5:

5.01  TE Dallas Clark, IND

5.02  QB Phillip Rivers, SD

5.03  TE Vernon Davis, SF

5.04  RB Brandon Jacobs, NYG

5.05  RB Matt Forte, CHI

5.06  RB Ricky Williams, MIA

5.07  QB Tom Brady, NE

5.08  WR Percy Harvin, MIN

5.09  RB Michael Bush, OAK

5.10  WR Donald Driver, GB

5.11  WR Pierre Garcon, IND

5.12  RB Fred Jackson, BUF

Notes/Analysis: Teams are beginning to fill out their starting rosters at this point.  Tom Brady at 55 overall is excellent value.

The Michael Bush pick created a lot of discussion on his value.  He has a lot of upside with Justin Fargas out of the way, but has to split time with Darren McFadden, who ends up going 2 rounds later.  Some thought Bush was drafted several rounds too early, yet a few others thought that he might be worth the gamble at that spot.

Round 6:

6.01  WR Dwayne Bowe, KC

6.02  RB Marion Barber, DAL

6.03  RB Reggie Bush, NO

6.04  RB Steve Slaton, HOU

6.05  TE Jason Witten, DAL

6.06  RB Clinton Portis, WAS

6.07  TE Jermichael Finley, GB

6.08  TE Brent Celek, PHI

6.09  RB Justin Forsett, SEA

6.10  WR Mike Sims-Walker, JAX

6.11  WR Wes Welker, NE

6.12  WR Hines Ward, PIT

Notes/Analysis: thriftyrocker finally adds a WR (72nd overall pick).

For the first time since the first round, no QB is selected in a round.

At this point in time, Welker is a huge risk/reward gamble for the sixth round, especially since the league scoring does not award points per reception (PPR).

Round 7:

7.01  RB CJ Spiller, BUF

7.02  WR Robert Meachem, NO

7.03  RB Darren McFadden, OAK

7.04  WR Santana Moss, WAS

7.05  QB Brett Favre, MIN

7.06  RB LaDanian Tomlinson, NYJ

7.07  WR TJ Houshmandzadeh, SEA

7.08  RB Jerome Harrison, CLE

7.09  RB Ben Tate, HOU

7.10  WR Steve Breaston, AZ

7.11  WR Dez Bryant, DAL

7.12  TE Tony Gonzalez, ATL

Notes/Analysis:

3 rookies were selected in this round, including the consensus #1 rookie WR.

Some teams have filled in their starting lineup of skill positions; others are looking to mine talented backups from the available pool of WRs and RBs, and waiting on their TE or QB.

Round 8:

8.01  WR Mike Wallace, PIT

8.02  QB Matt Ryan, ATL

8.03  QB Kevin Kolb, PHI

8.04  QB Jay Cutler, CHI

8.05  QB Carson Palmer, CIN

8.06  TE Owen Daniels, HOU

8.07  RB Donald Brown, IND

8.08  WR Devin Aromashadu, CHI

8.09  TE Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN

8.10  WR Devin Hester, CHI

8.11  RB Thomas Jones, KC

8.12  WR Santonio Holmes, NYJ

Notes/Analysis: A big run on QBs at the beginning of the round means that with the selection of Palmer with the 89th pick, every team now has a starting QB.

2 WRs from the new Mike Martz-led CHI offense came off the board within 3 picks of each other.

thriftyrocker selects Santonio Holmes as his second WR, then follows it with Maclin in round 9.  WR is his team’s obvious weakpoint. Will his strengths at RB/QB/TE be enough?

Round 9:

9.01  WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI

9.02  WR Antonio Bryant, CIN

9.03  RB Montario Hardesty, CLE

9.04  RB Cadillac Williams, TB

9.05  RB Chester Taylor, MIN

9.06  QB Eli Manning, NYG

9.07  WR Eddie Royal, DEN

9.08  RB Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG

9.09  WR Braylon Edwards, NYJ

9.10  RB Darren Sproles, SD

9.11  RB Tashard Choice, DAL

9.12  WR Kenny Britt, TEN

Notes/Analysis:

Eli Manning is the first backup QB taken at the 102nd overall pick.

With the selection of Choice, Kareighuis now owns 5 Dallas Cowboys players (Austin/Felix Jones/Barber/Dez Bryant/Choice).

Congrats to Cadillac Williams as the first Tampa Bay Buccaneer player drafted (100th overall).

Jeremy Maclin was a pick that generated some buzz as very good value in the 9th round.

The RBs drafted in this round provide pretty good value.  You can still get a starting RB (Cadillac Williams) or a high-upside backup (Taylor, Bradshaw, Hardesty) that could easily be a starter if the situation presents itself.

Round 10:

10.01  RB Willis McGahee, BAL

10.02  TE Zach Miller, OAK

10.03  TE Kellen Winslow, TB

10.04  TE Chris Cooley, WAS

10.05  QB Donovan McNabb, PHI

10.06  D/ST New York Jets

10.07  WR Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE

10.08  QB Joe Flacco, BAL

10.09  WR Johnny Knox, CHI

10.10  WR Derrick Mason, BAL

10.11  QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

10.12  WR Malcom Floyd, SD

Notes/Analysis:

The first D/ST goes off the board at the 113th pick.  This early selection was mostly panned by the rest of the league.

With the selection of Cooley (112th overall pick), all teams have a starting TE.

Interestingly, 3 Baltimore Ravens go off the board in the 10th round. Many feel that this could be a breakout year for the entire offense, although most agree it will remain a ground-oriented attack first and foremost.

At the time of this writing, we are still drafting the last few rounds and wrapping up our rosters.  Look for the follow up to this article to detail some of the sleepers found in the last several rounds.

If you would like to see the picks (and corresponding smack talk) for yourself, check out our draft forum at http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=370.

 
Brendan grew up in Columbus, OH, as a college football nut; he has since evolved to an avid NFL fan and true fantasy geek. Brendan and his family now call Indiana home. Brendan posts under the name Indibuck.
 
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One Response to “2010 Early Mock Draft — Part 1”

  1. User avatar bungle613 says:

    Nice piece Indi. D/ST in the 10th…oh my. lol

    ReplyReply

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