Week 5: Percentage Plays - 11 comments

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Let me start off this Week 5 edition of Start & Sit by saying that I’m a huge fan of parity. I think it’s a big part of what makes football great. The NFL has a certain balance of good teams and bad teams that draws interest in a way that other sports don’t. In fact, I’m such a fan of this “balance” that I’ll sometimes combine bad picks with good ones in this very column. You may have noticed it over the past four weeks. I love parity. Or at least I did. Now, I’m not so sure. Why the change of heart? The Kansas City Chiefs. They’re 3–0. No big deal, right? Wrong. The Kansas City Chiefs are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL. There are no others. All of the teams you think might be unbeaten have a loss. Even the Colts, who usually reel off eight or nine wins to start the season, are struggling. Apparently, the decision to go without a head coach after Tony Dungy retired is finally catching up with them. What does it all mean? It means there’s too much parity. It also means we’re only picking winners this week. Let’s get to Start/Sit.
 
Here at the Café, we rank all the players we expect could see a significant amount of game action each week. We factor in a player’s overall ability, his weekly match-up, and the current status of his health. The result is one Start/Sit number, based on a scale of 100, and we’ll use each member’s ratings to find an average for each player. The higher a guy is on our list, the better you should feel starting him. Finally, below each table, I will give my personal Start/Sit recommendations for each position. Without further ado, here’s Start/Sit for Week 5.
 

Rank	Quarterbacks	Team	Opp	Average
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	at WAS	95.33
2	Drew Brees	NO	at ARI	94.00
3	Peyton Manning	IND	KC	93.83
4	Matt Schaub	HOU	NYG	82.67
5	Philip Rivers	SD	at OAK	81.92
6	Tony Romo	DAL	TEN	80.33
7	Matt Ryan	ATL	at CLE	79.08
8	Eli Manning	NYG	at HOU	76.67
9	Joe Flacco	BAL	DEN	72.67
10	Carson Palmer	CIN	TB	69.08
11	Donovan McNabb	WAS	GB	68.17
12	Kyle Orton	DEN	at BAL	67.83
13	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	JAC	67.17
14	Kevin Kolb	PHI	at SF	66.42
15	Sam Bradford	STL	at DET	66.25
16	Shaun Hill	DET	STL	61.17
17	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	MIN	61.00
18	Brett Favre	MIN	at NYJ	60.45
19	Matt Cassel	KC	at IND	59.33
20	Alex Smith	SF	PHI	58.67
21	David Garrard	JAC	at BUF	58.17
22	Josh Freeman	TB	at CIN	56.75
23	Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	SD	53.95
24	Max Hall	ARI	NO	50.50
25	Vince Young	TEN	at DAL	49.83
26	Todd Collins	CHI	at CAR	49.67
27	Jimmy Clausen	CAR	CHI	48.95
28	Jake Delhomme	CLE	ATL	41.73

 
Start: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills. The Jaguars have already surrendered 10 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, and no quarterback has thrown for under 290 yards against them this year.
 
But he’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.
 
Though the Jaguars are coming off a surprise victory over Indianapolis, they always play the Colts tough. Don’t let that fool you. Last year, they played two nail-biters against the Colts. In each subsequent game they lost by double digits and yielded over 30 points.
 
But he’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.
 
Fitzpatrick threw for two touchdowns and no interceptions last week against the Jets. He also ran for 74 yards. The Jets defense is good. The Jaguars, not so much.
 
But he’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.
 
Let’s be serious. The Bills wouldn’t release an all-world quarterback like Trent Edwards unless Fitzpatrick was a can’t-miss stud.
 
Fine, I’ll start him.
 
Sit: Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings. There are a lot of reasons not to like him this week. Through three games this season, Favre has thrown two touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s averaging less than 200 yards per contest. He’s dealing with elbow tendinitis, along with a lingering ankle injury. Plus, the Vikings are on the road and face a tough Jets defense and a crowd that is sure to be happy to welcome Brett back. I think the arguments I’ve just listed are going to far outweigh the one argument in favor of starting Favre. I’m speaking, of course, of Randy Moss. Without a doubt, Moss makes the Vikings a better team. However, I’m betting the Jets defense makes Minnesota wait a week to realize that benefit.
 

Rank	Running Backs	Team	Opp	Average
1	Chris Johnson	TEN	at DAL	89.75
2	Frank Gore	SF	PHI	89.33
3	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	at BUF	89.08
4	Adrian Peterson	MIN	at NYJ	85.92
5	Michael Turner	ATL	at CLE	84.63
6	Steven Jackson	STL	at DET	81.93
7	Arian Foster	HOU	NYG	81.83
8	Cedric Benson	CIN	TB	79.28
9	Jamaal Charles	KC	at IND	78.50
10	Ray Rice	BAL	DEN	75.45
11	Jahvid Best	DET	STL	74.11
12	Matt Forte	CHI	at CAR	74.08
13	Ahmad Bradshaw	NYG	at HOU	72.21
14	Peyton Hills	CLE	ATL	71.33
15	Joseph Addai	IND	KC	71.03
16	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	CHI	70.79
17	LaDainian Tomlinson	NYJ	MIN	70.67
18	Fred Jackson	BUF	JAC	70.50
19	Ryan Mathews	SD	at OAK	70.04
20	Thomas Jones	KC	at IND	69.50
21	Mike Tolbert	SD	at OAK	69.17
22	C.J. Spiller	BUF	JAC	66.33
23	Beanie Wells	ARI	NO	66.02
24	Michael Bush	OAK	SD	65.69
25	Tim Hightower	ARI	NO	64.25
26	Shonn Greene	NYJ	MIN	62.50
T-26	Cadillac Williams	TB	at CIN	62.50
28	Jason Snelling	ATL	at CLE	62.17
29	Ryan Torain	WAS	GB	61.50
30	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	CHI	59.78
31	Pierre Thomas	NO	at ARI	59.59
32	Chris Ivory	NO	at ARI	59.00
33	LeSean McCoy	PHI	at SF	57.63
34	Darren Sproles	SD	at OAK	56.83
35	Brandon Jackson	GB	at WAS	55.50
36	John Kuhn	GB	at WAS	54.50
37	Brandon Jacobs	NYG	at HOU	54.37
38	Willis McGahee	BAL	DEN	53.00
39	Felix Jones	DAL	TEN	52.92
40	Marion Barber	DAL	TEN	51.58
41	Chester Taylor	CHI	at CAR	49.25
42	Steve Slaton	HOU	NYG	48.50
43	Bernard Scott	CIN	TB	48.33
44	Jerome Harrison	CLE	ATL	47.15
45	Ladell Betts	NO	at ARI	47.00
46	Laurence Maroney	DEN	at BAL	46.50
47	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	at BAL	46.08
48	Correll Buckhalter	DEN	at BAL	45.35
49	Kevin Smith	DET	STL	44.27
50	Donald Brown	IND	KC	42.93
51	Maurice Morris	DET	STL	41.50
52	LeGarrette Blount	TB	at CIN	41.33
53	Mike Bell	PHI	at SF	40.00
54	Rashad Jennings	JAC	at BUF	39.47
55	Derrick Ward	HOU	NYG	38.67
56	Kareem Huggins	TB	at CIN	38.62
57	Javon Ringer	TEN	at DAL	38.08
58	Keiland Williams	WAS	GB	35.00
59	Kenneth Darby	STL	at DET	34.83
60	Anthony Dixon	SF	PHI	29.17
61	Toby Gerhart	MIN	at NYJ	28.25
62	Brian Westbrook	SF	PHI	27.98
63	Tashard Choice	DAL	TEN	23.17
64	Darren McFadden	OAK	SD	23.08
65	LeRon McClain	BAL	DEN	22.33

 
Ed. Note: LeSean McCoy is unexpectedly slated to play in Week 5, and the ratings have been updated accordingly. Knownshon Moreno and Rashad Jennings have been ruled out, while Pierre Thomas is likely on his way to being inactive as well.
 
Start: Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders. Darren McFadden left last week’s game in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury. He is unlikely to play against the Chargers. That leaves Michael Bush as the only game in town. Bush appears to be all the way back from a thumb injury that caused him to miss time earlier in the season. Last week, he rushed seven times for 40 yards and a score. He figures to get a lot more work against San Diego in Week 5.
 
The Chargers were excellent against the run last week, holding Tim Hightower and Chris Wells to a combined 43 yards on the ground. Still, there’s reason to think the Raiders will have more success running the ball. That reason is Bruce Gradkowski. Gradkowski isn’t Peyton Manning, but he’s much better than the shockingly awful quarterback situation in Arizona. Gradkowski should be able to keep the San Diego defense honest, giving Bush room to run. Solid RB2.
 
Sit: Any Running Back, Green Bay Packers. Let me start by saying that there’s no truth to the rumor about the Packers rushing attack. A team is not allowed to have the first 25 fans in attendance run the ball once. Besides, Green Bay is on the road this week. Still, if any team had incentive to inquire about such a rule it would be the Packers. Brandon Jackson is averaging 3.0 yards per carry. John Kuhn is yet to run for 40 yards in a single game. If you have to pick one, I guess it would be Jackson. The Packers have stated that he’s still the primary ball carrier, though the word “carrier” seems optimistic. The bottom line is you want no part of Kuhn, and you should stay away from Jackson unless you truly don’t have any other options.
 

Rank	Wide Receivers	Team	Opp	Average
1	Roddy White	ATL	at CLE	93.42
2	Calvin Johnson	DET	STL	90.50
3	Miles Austin	DAL	TEN	88.17
4	Reggie Wayne	IND	KC	87.63
5	Greg Jennings	GB	at WAS	85.17
6	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	NO	82.47
7	Marques Colston	NO	at ARI	81.17
8	Andre Johnson	HOU	NYG	80.67
9	DeSean Jackson	PHI	at SF	79.83
10	Mark Clayton	STL	at DET	78.25
11	Randy Moss	MIN	at NYJ	78.00
12	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	at HOU	77.93
13	Anquan Boldin	BAL	DEN	77.83
T-13	Steve Smith	NYG	at HOU	77.83
15	Chad Ochocinco	CIN	TB	76.25
16	Donald Driver	GB	at WAS	76.17
17	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	at SF	70.17
18	Malcom Floyd	SD	at OAK	70.08
19	Terrell Owens	CIN	TB	69.92
20	Dwayne Bowe	KC	at IND	69.50
21	Lee Evans	BUF	JAC	68.67
22	Braylon Edwards	NYJ	MIN	67.83
23	Austin Collie	IND	KC	67.68
24	Johnny Knox	CHI	at CAR	67.17
25	Mike Sims-Walker	JAC	at BUF	67.00
26	Mike Williams	TB	at CIN	66.75
27	Lance Moore	NO	at ARI	66.50
28	Santonio Holmes	NYJ	MIN	66.03
29	Michael Crabtree	SF	PHI	64.83
30	Percy Harvin	MIN	at NYJ	63.87
31	Nate Washington	TEN	at DAL	63.58
32	Derrick Mason	BAL	DEN	63.50
33	Robert Meachem	NO	at ARI	63.00
34	Devery Henderson	NO	at ARI	62.83
35	Devin Hester	CHI	at CAR	62.67
36	Louis Murphy	OAK	SD	61.82
37	Dez Bryant	DAL	TEN	61.79
38	Danny Amendola	STL	at DET	60.92
39	Legedu Naanee	SD	at OAK	59.75
40	Santana Moss	WAS	GB	59.50
41	James Jones	GB	at WAS	59.33
42	Mike Thomas	JAC	at BUF	58.83
43	Brandon Lloyd	DEN	at BAL	58.67
44	Eddie Royal	DEN	at BAL	58.33
45	Pierre Garcon	IND	KC	58.16
46	Mohamed Massaquoi	CLE	ATL	57.83
47	Mario Manningham	NYG	at HOU	57.58
48	Roy Williams	DAL	TEN	57.33
49	Kevin Walter	HOU	NYG	57.25
50	Laurent Robinson	STL	at DET	56.76
51	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	BAL	DEN	56.67
52	Kenny Britt	TEN	at DAL	56.25
53	Jabar Gaffney	DEN	at BAL	55.50
T-53	Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	MIN	55.50
55	Josh Morgan	SF	PHI	53.82
56	Chris Chambers	KC	at IND	53.67
T-56	Dexter McCluster	KC	at IND	53.67
58	Jason Avant	PHI	at SF	53.50
59	Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK	SD	52.42
60	Harry Douglas	ATL	at CLE	52.25
61	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	at BAL	51.68
62	Jacoby Jones	HOU	NYG	50.93
63	Roscoe Parrish	BUF	JAC	50.83
64	Bernard Berrian	MIN	at NYJ	50.17
65	Stephen Williams	ARI	NO	49.33
66	Nate Burleson	DET	STL	48.92
67	Sammie Stroughter	TB	at CIN	46.92
68	Earl Bennett	CHI	at CAR	46.00
69	Brandon LaFell	CAR	CHI	44.83
70	Steve Johnson	BUF	JAC	44.67
71	Joshua Cribbs	CLE	ATL	44.33
T-71	Blair White	IND	KC	44.33
73	Buster Davis	SD	at OAK	43.50
74	Bryant Johnson	DET	STL	42.67
75	Brandon Gibson	STL	at DET	42.17
76	Patrick Crayton	SD	at OAK	39.50
77	Greg Camarillo	MIN	at NYJ	37.33
78	David Gettis	CAR	CHI	36.67
79	Brian Robiskie	CLE	ATL	35.67
80	Joey Galloway	WAS	GB	35.50
81	Ted Ginn Jr.	SF	PHI	35.23
82	Michael Jenkins	ATL	at CLE	34.17
83	Jordy Nelson	GB	at WAS	33.50
84	Devin Aromashodu	CHI	at CAR	26.41
85	Brian Finneran	ATL	at CLE	26.00
86	Andre Caldwell	CIN	TB	23.00
87	Devin Thomas	WAS	GB	22.83
88	Brad Smith	NYJ	MIN	21.33
89	Michael Spurlock	TB	at CIN	21.17
90	Anthony Armstrong	WAS	GB	20.67
91	Arrelious Benn	TB	at CIN	20.33
92	Tiquan Underwood	JAC	at BUF	15.33
93	Derrick Williams	DET	STL	13.67
94	Jacoby Ford	OAK	SD	13.50
95	Steve Smith	CAR	CHI	12.83
96	Kasim Osgood	JAC	at BUF	12.67
97	Armanti Edwards	CAR	CHI	12.50
98	David Anderson	HOU	NYG	10.67
99	Chansi Stuckey	CLE	ATL	8.67
100	Victor Cruz	NYG	at HOU	5.83

 
Ed. Note: Austin Collie’s status is up in the air.
 
Start: Mark Clayton, St. Louis Rams. During the preseason, fantasy owners looked at the Rams passing game and said, “I don’t know who the number one receiver will be, and it probably won’t matter.” At the time, such an attitude made some sense. Fast forward to Week 5 and Clayton is clearly Sam Bradford’s go-to guy. More importantly, Bradford’s play has made it so that being “his guy” actually means something. Now you’ve got the Rams’ obvious number one receiver and a rookie quarterback playing like a veteran.
 
But that’s not all. The Rams have a sweet match-up against the defensive-allergic Detroit Lions. The Lions have given up a touchdown to the opposing teams’ top receiver in three straight games. Put it all together and Clayton should bring the yards and find the end zone this week. Seven catches for 90 yards and a score.
 
Sit: Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars. One Jaguars fan thinks Sims-Walker is a good bet to bounce back this week while the other two aren’t so sure. I’m betting 67% of Jacksonville’s fan base is about to look pretty smart.
 

Rank	Tight Ends	Team	Opp	Average
1	Dallas Clark	IND	KC	96.50
2	Antonio Gates	SD	at OAK	93.83
3	Jermichael Finley	GB	at WAS	92.00
4	Vernon Davis	SF	PHI	88.67
5	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	at CLE	83.58
6	Zach Miller	OAK	SD	78.97
7	Jason Witten	DAL	TEN	77.64
8	Chris Cooley	WAS	GB	76.83
9	Dustin Keller	NYJ	MIN	76.33
10	Kellen Winslow	TB	at CIN	74.72
11	Brent Celek	PHI	at SF	74.67
12	Greg Olsen	CHI	at CAR	74.50
13	Visanthe Shiancoe	MIN	at NYJ	73.23
14	Marcedes Lewis	JAC	at BUF	71.17
15	Jeremy Shockey	NO	at ARI	70.10
16	Jermaine Gresham	CIN	TB	69.08
17	Brandon Pettigrew	DET	STL	68.67
18	Todd Heap	BAL	DEN	66.33
19	Kevin Boss	NYG	at HOU	66.04
20	Tony Scheffler	DET	STL	64.67
21	Bo Scaife	TEN	at DAL	61.08
22	Ben Watson	CLE	ATL	60.50
23	Tony Moeaki	KC	at IND	53.17
24	Owen Daniels	HOU	NYG	52.98
25	Ben Patrick	ARI	NO	51.17
T-25	Daniel Graham	DEN	at BAL	51.17
27	Dante Rosario	CAR	CHI	51.13
28	Jonathan Stupar	BUF	JAC	46.00
29	Daniel Fells	STL	at DET	42.83
30	Billy Bajema	STL	at DET	39.08
31	Jeff King	CAR	CHI	38.58
32	Leonard Pope	KC	at IND	35.00
33	Martellus Bennett	DAL	TEN	29.33
34	Donald Lee	GB	at WAS	29.00
35	Fred Davis	WAS	GB	21.17

 
Start: Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers. If you have Davis, you’re probably starting him anyway. However, there’s a chance you might look at his match-up against Philadelphia and his recent yardage totals – 22 and 36 – and consider looking elsewhere. Don’t do it. Davis remains the 49ers’ best offensive weapon. He scored last week on an impressive catch and run and is always a threat to get in the end zone. Keep Davis in your lineup.
 
Sit: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars. We all heard about Lewis being the Jaguars early-season MVP. I’m not sure how I feel about it. On one hand, Lewis has already caught three touchdown passes. On the other hand, the term “Jaguars MVP” seems like a bit of an oxymoron. Either way, the yards haven’t been there for Lewis in recent weeks. He was only targeted twice last game and I don’t think he gets many more looks in Week 5.
 

Rank	Team Defense	Team	Opp	Average
1	Jets	NYJ	MIN	87.50
2	Saints	NO	at ARI	82.17
3	Ravens	BAL	DEN	81.92
4	Bears	CHI	at CAR	81.17
5	Chargers	SD	at OAK	79.83
6	Packers	GB	at WAS	78.35
7	Bengals	CIN	TB	77.92
8	Eagles	PHI	at SF	77.67
9	Vikings	MIN	at NYJ	76.72
10	Falcons	ATL	at CLE	75.00
11	Cowboys	DAL	TEN	73.42
12	Colts	IND	KC	71.35
13	Giants	NYG	at HOU	69.18
14	Titans	TEN	at DAL	67.67
15	49ers	SF	PHI	67.50
16	Bills	BUF	JAC	66.50
17	Texans	HOU	NYG	64.58
18	Rams	STL	at DET	64.33
19	Jaguars	JAC	at BUF	64.17
20	Broncos	DEN	at BAL	63.83
21	Panthers	CAR	CHI	62.67
22	Lions	DET	STL	61.92
23	Chiefs	KC	at IND	59.50
24	Redskins	WAS	GB	59.33
25	Browns	CLE	ATL	54.58
26	Cardinals	ARI	NO	54.33
27	Raiders	OAK	SD	53.33
28	Buccaneers	TB	at CIN	52.75

 
Start: New York Jets. The Jets defense has been good, but not great, over the last couple of weeks. Now they face Minnesota and their newly acquired disgruntled receiver. While I do think Randy Moss will eventually become gruntled, I don’t think it will be this week. The Jets should get a couple of key players back, including Calvin Pace and Darrelle Revis. Even if Moss doesn’t face off against Revis on every snap, he’d have to go against Antonio Cromartie, who has proven he’s one of the most productive (and reproductive) players in the league. I think the Moss acquisition will help the Vikings in the long-term, just not the short-term.
 
Start: New Orleans Saints. They play Arizona, a team whose quarterback situation has been described as “shockingly awful.”
 
Sit: Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are yet to surrender more than 14 points in a game this year, and they should be well rested as they take on the Jets on Monday Night Football. However, fantasy defenses are all about matchups. After a terrible opening game against the Ravens, “the Sanchise” has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league. In fact, even with the Baltimore game, Sanchez hasn’t thrown an interception all season. Combine that with a healthier Jets defense, and there’s a good chance Sanchez and company will play it close to the vest. Unless the Jets offense is compelled to take chances, I don’t see the Vikings forcing more than a single turnover.
 
Sit: Kansas City Chiefs. They play Peyton Manning this week. I know the Chiefs are undefeated, but don’t get cute. There are better match-ups out there. Over 20 of them.
 

Rank	Kickers	Team	Opp	Average
1	Nate Kaeding	SD	at OAK	87.67
2	Mason Crosby	GB	at WAS	84.17
3	David Akers	PHI	at SF	82.00
4	Robbie Gould	CHI	at CAR	78.75
5	Neil Rackers	HOU	NYG	78.17
6	Rob Bironas	TEN	at DAL	77.58
7	John Carney	NO	at ARI	77.50
T-7	Lawrence Tynes	NYG	at HOU	77.50
9	Matt Bryant	ATL	at CLE	76.50
10	Mike Nugent	CIN	TB	76.17
11	Adam Vinatieri	IND	KC	75.50
12	Matt Prater	DEN	at BAL	74.83
13	Ryan Longwell	MIN	at NYJ	74.42
14	Jason Hanson	DET	STL	73.50
15	Josh Scobee	JAC	at BUF	71.50
T-15	Nick Folk	NYJ	MIN	71.50
17	Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	SD	70.67
18	Rian Lindell	BUF	JAC	70.00
19	Josh Brown	STL	at DET	69.67
20	Jay Feely	ARI	NO	67.83
21	Ryan Succop	KC	at IND	67.17
22	David Buehler	DAL	TEN	66.17
23	Joe Nedney	SF	PHI	66.00
24	Billy Cundiff	BAL	DEN	65.92
25	Phil Dawson	CLE	ATL	64.75
26	John Kasay	CAR	CHI	64.17
27	Graham Gano	WAS	GB	63.92
28	Connor Barth	TB	at CIN	53.00

 
Start: Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers. Crosby faces the Redskins who have allowed eight field goals (10 attempts) over the last three weeks. Hopefully, Washington continues to play just enough defense to keep the field goals coming.
 
Sit: Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland Raiders. Janikowski has only connected on 64% of his field goal attempts this year.
 

 
Drew is a lifelong Jets fan. Playing and writing about fantasy football has proven helpful in easing the pain.
 

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