Start & SitOctober 22, 2010


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Week 7: Xs and Os - 5 comments

By Drew Szczerba

I owe Herman Edwards an apology.

From 2001–2005, Herman Edwards was the head coach of the New York Jets. Personally, I don’t think he was quite as bad as a lot of Jets fans made him out to be. On a scale of Rich Kotite to 10, I’d probably give Edwards a four or five. Like all coaches, Edwards had his strengths and weaknesses. He was a great motivator, but he was never much of an “Xs and Os” guy. For some reason, during the early 2000s, it never dawned on me that not being an “Xs and Os” guy was a pretty glaring weakness for a head football coach. Another issue for Edwards was clock management. Especially toward the end of games, no team minimized efficiency and maximized frustration like Edwards’ Jets. They mismanaged the clock, squandered time outs, and caused the berating of countless rear-projection television sets. It was brutal to watch unless you weren’t a Jets fan, in which case I’m told it was quite comical. Still, it may not have all been Edwards’ fault. Apparently, television networks may have had some influence as to when coaches called time out.

According to Titans head coach Jeff Fisher (a solid eight on the Kotite scale), the referee asked him use his time outs instead of taking a knee on Monday night in an effort to run more commercials during the game. Upon hearing this news, my reaction was probably the same as yours – I don’t have a problem with it as long as the commercials are funny. I think most of us are willing to sacrifice the integrity of the game if it means we can get on-line investing advice from a baby. And while that makes a lot of sense, there’s a bigger issue at stake. What if Herman Edwards wasn’t responsible for the inexplicable clock management that caused Jets fans five (additional) years of anguish? What if it wasn’t his fault? What if the networks made him do it? Pick any game the Jets lost because he curiously left the opposition enough time to retake the lead. What if instead the Jets won that game? If so, Edwards never would’ve had to hold that infamous press conference – the one where he emphatically tried to convince us he “played to win the game.” I’m not saying I know for sure that Edwards wasn’t to blame. I’m saying there’s enough evidence to be unsure. And for that, there’s only one thing to say. I’m sorry, Herm.

With that, let’s get to Start/Sit and hope that I don’t find myself having to apologize next week too. Here at the Café, we rank all the players we expect could see a significant amount of game action each week. We factor in a player’s overall ability, his weekly match-up, and the current status of his health. The result is one Start/Sit number, based on a scale of 100, and we’ll use each member’s ratings to find an average for each player. The higher a guy is on our list, the better you should feel starting him. Finally, below each table, I will give my personal Start/Sit recommendations for each position. Without further ado, here’s Start/Sit for Week 7.

RankQuarterbacksTeamOppAverage
1Drew BreesNOCLE82.01
2Philip RiversSDNE77.57
3Aaron RodgersGBMIN75.20
4Kyle OrtonDENOAK72.86
5Tom BradyNEat SD70.71
6Tony RomoDALNYG67.43
7Ben RoethlisbergerPITat MIA67.00
8Joe FlaccoBALBUF65.71
9Eli ManningNYGat DAL65.29
10Jay CutlerCHIWAS65.03
11Matt RyanATLCIN61.86
12Donovan McNabbWASat CHI59.14
13Kevin KolbPHIat TEN58.86
14Matt CasselKCJAC57.57
15Brett FavreMINat GB57.39
16Carson PalmerCINat ATL57.29
17Matt HasselbeckSEAARI55.86
18Sam BradfordSTLat TB55.71
19Josh FreemanTBSTL55.29
20Chad HenneMIAPIT53.43
21Ryan FitzpatrickBUFat BAL50.71
22Alex SmithSFat CAR50.29
23Vince YoungTENPHI49.07
24Max HallARIat SEA45.71
25Matt MooreCARSF39.14
26Colt McCoyCLEat NO36.57
27Kyle BollerOAKat DEN35.14
28David GarrardJACat KC27.29
29Todd BoumanJACat KC18.79
30Jimmy ClausenCARSF17.43
31Jason CampbellOAKat DEN12.86
32Kerry CollinsTENPHI8.87

 
Start: Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos. Thanks to his frequent appearances in this column, and to a lesser extent his play on the field, Orton’s start percentage is up to 60% as of this writing. That means people are finally beginning to take notice. It also means that 40% of Orton owners need to find a trade partner or a new hobby. Last week, Orton was slowed somewhat by a very good Jets defense. Still, he didn’t play bad (14/34 for 209 yards, one score and zero interceptions) and his receivers didn’t help him by dropping a few passes. This week he gets Oakland. The Raiders have already surrendered 12 passing touchdowns this season – third most in the NFL. Start Orton in all formats.
 
Sit: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals. Palmer has been wildly inconsistent this year. Last game, he threw for 209 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Prior to that, he only broke the 200-yard barrier once in three contests. Palmer now heads to Atlanta to face a Falcons defense that got lit up by Kevin Kolb and the Eagles last week. Usually, a hit-or-miss quarterback against a hit-or-miss defense is tough to predict. However, something seems awry with Palmer this year. He doesn’t have near the arm strength he displayed in years past. I don’t know if he’s hurt or if he’s just lost something off his fastball, but I’m staying away until he shows improvement.
 
RankRunning BacksTeamOppAverage
1Chris JohnsonTENPHI80.00
2Ray RiceBALBUF78.49
3Frank GoreSFat CAR76.71
4Adrian PetersonMINat GB76.14
5Steven JacksonSTLat TB74.36
6Maurice Jones-DrewJACat KC71.29
7Michael TurnerATLCIN70.86
8Rashard MendenhallPITat MIA69.86
9Jamaal CharlesKCJAC67.86
10Matt ForteCHIWAS66.71
11Ahmad BradshawNYGat DAL66.29
12DeAngelo WilliamsCARSF65.86
13Cedric BensonCINat ATL64.43
14LeSean McCoyPHIat TEN62.46
15Peyton HillsCLEat NO62.39
16Knowshon MorenoDENOAK62.37
17Michael BushOAKat DEN61.71
18Thomas JonesKCJAC61.57
19Marshawn LynchSEAARI61.14
20Ryan MathewsSDNE59.70
21Ryan TorainWASat CHI59.00
22Beanie WellsARIat SEA58.86
23Jonathan StewartCARSF58.29
24Chris IvoryNOCLE57.71
25Felix JonesDALNYG56.57
26Ronnie BrownMIAPIT55.00
27Darren McFaddenOAKat DEN54.39
28Justin ForsettSEAARI54.29
29Cadillac WilliamsTBSTL54.00
30BenJarvus Green-EllisNEat SD53.71
31Fred JacksonBUFat BAL52.71
32Brandon JacobsNYGat DAL52.43
33Tim HightowerARIat SEA52.29
T-33Willis McGaheeBALBUF52.29
35Ricky WilliamsMIAPIT51.57
36Marion BarberDALNYG50.29
37C.J. SpillerBUFat BAL49.00
38Brandon JacksonGBMIN48.86
39Danny WoodheadNEat SD47.86
40Jason SnellingATLCIN42.71
41Darren SprolesSDNE40.43
42Chester TaylorCHIWAS39.57
43Laurence MaroneyDENOAK39.43
44Javon RingerTENPHI38.00
45LeGarrette BlountTBSTL37.71
46Bernard ScottCINat ATL36.71
47John KuhnGBMIN36.57
48Mike BellCLEat NO36.43
49Keiland WilliamsWASat CHI35.86
50Correll BuckhalterDENOAK35.30
51Jerome HarrisonPHIat TEN34.86
52Ladell BettsNOCLE34.29
T-52Mike TolbertSDNE34.29
54Tashard ChoiceDALNYG33.14
55Leon WashingtonSEAARI31.86
56Deji KarimJACat KC29.57
57Mewelde MoorePITat MIA26.00
58Kenneth DarbySTLat TB25.00
59Brian WestbrookSFat CAR21.80
60Pierre ThomasNOCLE21.44
61LeRon McClainBALBUF21.29
62LaRod Stephens-HowlingARIat SEA20.43
63Toby GerhartMINat GB19.57
64Sammy MorrisNEat SD18.71
65Isaac RedmanPITat MIA16.86

 
Start: Ryan Torain, Washington Redskins. In Week 6, Torain ran for 100 yards against the Colts – a team that hadn’t allowed 100 yards rushing since Week 5. Torain also found the end zone twice and remains the clear number one back in Washington. Things should get somewhat tougher against the Bears, but maybe not as much as you’d think. Chicago surrendered two rushing touchdowns last week to the Seahawks. Consider Torain a solid RB2 in Week 7.
 
Sit: Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins. There are a lot of things working against Brown as we head into Week 7. First, while he’s still getting a few more carries than Ricky Williams, he’s not a clear number one back. Second, the emergence of Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall means Miami is no longer a run first, run second type of team. Third, the Dolphins play Pittsburgh, which means Brown is unlikely to find much room to run. Put it all together and you have a part time RB in a more balanced offense with a brutal matchup. Look elsewhere.
 
RankWide ReceiversTeamOppAverage
1Anquan BoldinBALBUF74.43
2Miles AustinDALNYG73.43
3Roddy WhiteATLCIN73.29
4Hakeem NicksNYGat DAL73.00
5Larry FitzgeraldARIat SEA72.43
6Randy MossMINat GB72.29
7Marques ColstonNOCLE69.43
8Brandon MarshallMIAPIT68.43
9Greg JenningsGBMIN65.71
10Dwayne BoweKCJAC65.29
T-10Jeremy MaclinPHIat TEN65.29
12Chad OchocincoCINat ATL65.00
T-12Wes WelkerNEat SD65.00
T-12Steve SmithNYGat DAL65.00
15Brandon LloydDENOAK64.71
16Hines WardPITat MIA64.57
17Santana MossWASat CHI62.86
18Percy HarvinMINat GB62.83
19Terrell OwensCINat ATL61.29
20Deion BranchNEat SD61.14
21Mike WallacePITat MIA61.00
22Johnny KnoxCHIWAS60.29
23Mike WilliamsTBSTL59.67
24Steve SmithCARSF59.27
25Michael CrabtreeSFat CAR59.00
26Lance MooreNOCLE58.86
27Jabar GaffneyDENOAK57.86
28Donald DriverGBMIN57.79
29Derrick MasonBALBUF56.99
30Kenny BrittTENPHI56.43
31Mike WilliamsSEAARI55.71
32Roy WilliamsDALNYG55.57
33Mike Sims-WalkerJACat KC55.43
34Louis MurphyOAKat DEN54.86
35Mario ManninghamNYGat DAL54.14
36Robert MeachemNOCLE53.71
37Devery HendersonNOCLE53.57
38Danny AmendolaSTLat TB53.43
39Devin HesterCHIWAS53.29
40Danario AlexanderSTLat TB52.71
41James JonesGBMIN51.57
42Mike ThomasJACat KC50.86
43Lee EvansBUFat BAL50.43
T-43Nate WashingtonTENPHI50.43
45Patrick CraytonSDNE50.20
46Jason AvantPHIat TEN49.74
47T.J. HoushmandzadehBALBUF49.43
48Chris ChambersKCJAC48.14
49Davone BessMIAPIT47.86
T-49Brandon TateNEat SD47.86
51Dez BryantDALNYG47.46
52Darrius Heyward-BeyOAKat DEN47.00
53Steve JohnsonBUFat BAL46.43
54Dexter McClusterKCJAC45.00
55Steve BreastonARIat SEA43.41
56Anthony ArmstrongWASat CHI43.00
57Eddie RoyalDENOAK42.29
T-57Golden TateSEAARI42.29
59Mardy GilyardSTLat TB41.89
60Michael JenkinsATLCIN41.86
61Sammie StroughterTBSTL41.57
62Josh MorganSFat CAR41.29
63Demaryius ThomasDENOAK40.57
64Deon ButlerSEAARI40.43
65Buster DavisSDNE40.29
66Legedu NaaneeSDNE39.54
67Jordan ShipleyCINat ATL38.24
68Brandon StokleySEAARI37.71
69Antwaan Randle ElPITat MIA37.00
70Brandon LaFellCARSF36.57
71Harry DouglasATLCIN35.71
72Brian HartlineMIAPIT35.43
73Greg LewisMINat GB35.14
74Brian RobiskieCLEat NO34.29
75Devin AromashoduCHIWAS34.14
76Roscoe ParrishBUFat BAL33.86
77Joey GallowayWASat CHI33.29
78Earl BennettCHIWAS33.14
79Joshua CribbsCLEat NO31.64
80Bernard BerrianMINat GB31.43
81Jordy NelsonGBMIN30.71
82Ted Ginn Jr.SFat CAR29.57
83Early DoucetARIat SEA29.03
84Brian FinneranATLCIN24.86
T-84Brandon GibsonSTLat TB24.86

 
Start: Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles. Last week, DeSean Jackson was the recipient of a brutal hit that left him with a severe concussion. He’s already been ruled out for this game, making Maclin the WR1 in Philadelphia at least for a week. Maclin has shown good chemistry with entrenched starting quarterback, Kevin Kolb. Last week, Maclin hauled in seven passes for 159 yards and two scores. A repeat effort is unlikely, but he should get enough targets to come close.
 
Sit: Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys. Bryant had a decent game last week with nine fantasy points in most formats. Unfortunately, point totals don’t always tell the whole tale. Bryant had a touchdown, but it was his only catch of the game. He was targeted just three times. Moreover, he hasn’t practiced all week due to a lingering ankle injury. Throw in a tough Giants defense and Bryant belongs on your bench.
 
RankTight EndsTeamOppAverage
1Vernon DavisSFat CAR76.57
2Zach MillerOAKat DEN69.71
3Antonio GatesSDNE69.56
4Aaron HernandezNEat SD66.29
5Tony GonzalezATLCIN65.29
6Marcedes LewisJACat KC64.14
7Jason WittenDALNYG63.14
8John CarlsonSEAARI63.00
9Heath MillerPITat MIA62.71
10Tony MoeakiKCJAC62.00
T-10Kellen WinslowTBSTL62.00
12Brent CelekPHIat TEN60.86
13Ben WatsonCLEat NO60.43
14Jeremy ShockeyNOCLE60.23
15Todd HeapBALBUF59.43
T-15Visanthe ShiancoeMINat GB59.43
17Jermaine GreshamCINat ATL56.43
18Chris CooleyWASat CHI56.24
19Greg OlsenCHIWAS55.57
20Kevin BossNYGat DAL55.00
21Bo ScaifeTENPHI52.71
22Anthony FasanoMIAPIT50.29
23Rob GronkowskiNEat SD47.00
24Fred DavisWASat CHI44.57
25Ben PatrickARIat SEA44.14
26Daniel GrahamDENOAK43.86
27Andrew QuarlessGBMIN43.57
28Daniel FellsSTLat TB37.57
29Jeff KingCARSF36.86
30Michael HoomanawanuiSTLat TB29.00
31Jonathan StuparBUFat BAL27.57
32Randy McMichaelSDNE25.43
33Martellus BennettDALNYG23.14
34Dante RosarioCARSF22.24
35Shawn NelsonBUFat BAL20.00

 
Start: Ben Watson, Cleveland Browns. After years of being a fantasy tease in New England, Watson is starting to fulfill his potential in Cleveland. I guess that’s what happens when upgrade your quarterback from Tom Brady to Colt McCoy. Whatever the reason, Watson looks rejuvenated in his new venue. Now he faces a Saints defense that rank amongst the bottom five in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. Prediction: six catches for 60 yards and a score.
 
Sit: Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings. Visanthe Shiancoe is a team player, and for that he belongs on your bench. According to Minneapolis Star Tribune, Shiancoe is okay with the fact that he’s only caught two passes since the Vikings acquired Randy Moss because sometimes he’s asked to block more. This is in direct contrast with most NFL pass-catchers who regularly demand the ball, cry if they don’t get the ball, and write a book about how they should be given the ball. Sometimes what’s good for the team isn’t good for your fantasy lineup. Minnesota currently has too many weapons for Shiancoe to be a consistent performer.
 
RankTeam DefenseTeamOppAverage
1SteelersPITat MIA79.57
2RavensBALBUF71.43
3SaintsNOCLE67.86
4ChiefsKCJAC66.71
5BearsCHIWAS66.57
6SeahawksSEAARI66.43
7GiantsNYGat DAL65.14
8FalconsATLCIN63.57
T-8PackersGBMIN63.57
10TitansTENPHI62.29
11EaglesPHIat TEN62.14
1249ersSFat CAR61.57
13ChargersSDNE61.00
14CowboysDALNYG59.57
15DolphinsMIAPIT59.00
16RamsSTLat TB58.57
T-16BuccaneersTBSTL58.57
18VikingsMINat GB58.14
19RedskinsWASat CHI57.86
20BengalsCINat ATL57.43
21PatriotsNEat SD55.86
22BroncosDENOAK55.00
23PanthersCARSF54.14
24RaidersOAKat DEN51.14
25CardinalsARIat SEA49.14
26BrownsCLEat NO46.43
27JaguarsJACat KC46.00
28BillsBUFat BAL41.71

 
Start: Kansas City Chiefs. I like the idea of having my fantasy defense play against David Garrard or Trent Edwards. I love the idea of playing against their backups. Throw in a Chiefs home game and you have a must-start defense for Week 7.
 
Sit: Oakland Raiders. It’s not a punch line. The Raiders have the misfortune of playing against the Kyle Orton-led Broncos.
 
RankKickersTeamOppAverage
1Rob BironasTENPHI72.57
2Stephen GostkowskiNEat SD69.86
3Robbie GouldCHIWAS69.57
4David AkersPHIat TEN69.43
5Matt BryantATLCIN69.29
6Mason CrosbyGBMIN69.14
7Matt PraterDENOAK68.00
8Mike NugentCINat ATL66.29
9Sebastian JanikowskiOAKat DEN66.14
10Jeff ReedPITat MIA63.29
11Billy CundiffBALBUF62.71
12Josh ScobeeJACat KC62.57
13Ryan LongwellMINat GB62.29
T-13Garrett HartleyNOCLE62.29
15Lawrence TynesNYGat DAL62.14
16David BuehlerDALNYG61.43
17Ryan SuccopKCJAC61.14
T-17Nate KaedingSDNE61.14
19Graham GanoWASat CHI60.00
20Jay FeelyARIat SEA58.14
21John KasayCARSF57.14
T-21Joe NedneySFat CAR57.14
23Dan CarpenterMIAPIT57.00
24Connor BarthTBSTL56.29
25Josh BrownSTLat TB55.71
26Olindo MareSEAARI55.00
27Phil DawsonCLEat NO54.29
28Rian LindellBUFat BAL53.71

 
Start: Matt Prater, Denver Broncos. Last week in Denver, the Jets-Broncos game proved the inverse relationship that exists between oxygen and field goals. The Broncos are at home again in Week 7.
 
Sit: Dan Carpenter, Miami Dolphins. Not a lot of points in this one and the Steelers have only allowed multiple field goals in one of their last four games.
 

 
Drew is a lifelong Jets fan. Playing and writing about fantasy football has proven helpful in easing the pain.
 
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5 Responses to “Week 7: Xs and Os”

  1. User avatar FatFoot says:

    Worth pointing out to newer users of this site that these are averaged predictions, and that there are always a few glaring oversights etc, as there must be. I’m pointing this out because I was shocked to see DeAngelo Williams as the #12 RB, and while he has that talent, I find it dubious that he has that opportunity. McCoy, Benson, Hillis, Thomas Jones, and Brandon Jacobs all probably have higher upside. I hope I’m wrong.

    This thing is a lot of work to compile and organize. Keep up the great work, guys.

    ReplyReply
  2. User avatar Navyseal says:

    With 4 — count’em — FOUR TDs in 4 straight games, it seems odd that titans WR Kenny “Legit” Britt barely cracks the top-30 on the list above; I realize that Tennessee’s offense is more or less predicated upon CJ4.24 and the running game’s success, and admittedly, Britt’s OWN success may in fact hinge upon the health and wellness of QB Vince Young — however — even if VY doesn’t find the field this sunday vs a hungry Eagles team (that disposed of the Falcons relatively easily last sunday) that doesn’t necessarily mean that Collins won’t look his way this weekend, especially in the red zone. I believe that as long as Justin Gage isn’t 100% (or in the lineup for that matter), Kenny Britt’s size, hands, and athleticism SHOULD place him firmly within the top-20 each week — as long as his TD streak is kept alive… at the very least, Britt can be considered Tennessee’s “WR1b” to Nate Washington’s “WR1a” ultimately… ok, there’s my 2c

    keep up the great work gang,
    Navyseal

    ReplyReply
  3. User avatar Bucknut76 says:

    Concerning Kenny Britt… Maybe the fact that he may not start and remains a questionable character is why he hasn’t cracked the top 20 this week.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/30091/kenny-britt-bar-fight-an-unneeded-setback

    Needless to say, I’m sure this will have a lasting impact on the rest of the season for Britt owners. Personally, he would get the boot if on my team.

    ReplyReply
  4. User avatar Navyseal says:

    7/225/3

    nufsaid.

    ReplyReply
  5. Megalodon says:

    bad week for FFC Start Sit Week 7, though it’s uncommon. look forward to Week 8 Start Sit!

    ReplyReply

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