Start & SitNovember 5, 2010


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Week 9: Stop the Insanity! - 16 comments

By Drew Szczerba

I don’t believe in vetoes. I mean, I believe they exist. I just don’t think they have a place in fantasy sports. Except in cases of collusion, trades shouldn’t get vetoed. Not by a commissioner. Not by a vote. Why? Because Randy Moss was waived by the Vikings. Less than a month ago, Minnesota “stole” Moss from the Patriots for a third round pick. At the time, many wondered how a contender like New England could trade one of the best receivers in the game for what comparatively looked like some magic beans. Why, when they have a chance to win now, would they make their team worse only to become marginally better in the future? It didn’t make sense.

Fast forward a few weeks and the Patriots have the best record in the NFL. They haven’t lost a game since they “gave up” their “best” receiver. Moreover, Moss is no longer a Viking. What appeared to be a sweetheart deal for Minnesota wasn’t so sweet after all. Combine the two transactions and they’ve done nothing more than forfeit a draft pick. What happened? Well, there are two possibilities. One is that Minnesota didn’t want the pick because they hate the NFL draft. Not likely, but not impossible. Remember the 2003 draft when the Vikings had the seventh overall pick? They refused to take a player within the allotted time, allowing Jacksonville to use pick seven to select quarterback Byron Leftwich. (Fun fact: Although many people criticized the Jaguars for taking Leftwich too soon, experts now agree the early selection was necessary for him to complete his throwing motion before the start of the ’03 season.)

While there is some evidence to suggest the Vikings are draft-averse, the more likely scenario is simply that some trades don’t go according to plan. It happens in NFL and in happens in fantasy. When is the last time you made a deal that didn’t work out the way you thought it would? It probably wasn’t that long ago. For me, it was earlier this year when I “bought low” on DeAngelo Williams and “sold high” Darren McFadden. Swing and a miss. I figured Williams would emerge as the lead running back in Carolina. I figured Jonathan Stewart would only be used as a change-of-pace back. I did a lot of figuring. I suppose you could argue that Stewart is a change-of-pace back in that he usually rushes for no gain to the left, while Williams typically rushes for no gain to the right. Either way, the trade didn’t work. And that’s the point. Whenever a deal goes down in any of our leagues, we all have opinions as to which team won or lost the trade. Sometimes we feel we made a better offer and wonder why our offer got rejected. These differences of opinion are part of what makes fantasy sports fun. However, they are still opinions and opinions are often wrong. Except is cases of collusion, it’s better to allow owners to be wrong than it is to veto his or her trade. Why? Because your version of wrong isn’t always right.

With that, let’s get to Start/Sit. Here at the Café, we rank all the players we expect could see a significant amount of game action each week. We factor in a player’s overall ability, his weekly match-up, and the current status of his health. The result is one Start/Sit number, based on a scale of 100, and we’ll use each member’s ratings to find an average for each player. The higher a guy is on our list, the better you should feel starting him. Finally, below each table, I will give my personal Start/Sit recommendations for each position. Without further ado, here’s Start/Sit for Week 9.

RankQuarterbacksTeamOppAverage
1Philip RiversSDat HOU95.20
2Peyton ManningINDat PHI92.80
3Aaron RodgersGBDAL90.40
4Drew BreesNOat CAR89.40
5Tom BradyNEat CLE86.00
6Jay CutlerCHIat BUF79.00
7Ben RoethlisbergerPITat CIN78.20
8Michael VickPHIIND77.28
9Matt SchaubHOUSD77.20
T-9Eli ManningNYGat SEA77.20
11Matt RyanATLTB76.40
12Joe FlaccoBALMIA70.80
T-12Mark SanchezNYJat DET70.80
14Matthew StaffordDETNYJ69.80
15Josh FreemanTBat ATL68.00
16Ryan FitzpatrickBUFCHI67.60
17Matt CasselKCat OAK65.20
18Carson PalmerCINPIT64.40
19Brett FavreMINARI64.26
20Chad HenneMIAat BAL63.60
21Jon KitnaDALat GB62.60
22Jason CampbellOAKKC62.00
23Matt MooreCARNO54.80
24Colt McCoyCLENE54.60
25Derek AndersonARIat MIN52.40
26Charlie WhitehurstSEANYG36.60
27Tarvaris JacksonMINARI21.80
28Jake DelhommeCLENE18.80
29Max HallARIat MIN18.60
30Bruce GradkowskiOAKKC14.20

 
Start: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons. Matty Ice is starting to heat up. In his last three games, he’s thrown one, two and three touchdowns, respectively. If that trend were to continue, he’d throw for something like four touchdowns this week. It’s a free site, people.
 
If you need a more compelling argument (and you should), Ryan is at home to face Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have coughed up seven passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in their last three contests. Moreover, Ryan has thrown for more scores at home than on the road despite playing fewer home games to date. He should be started in all formats in Week 9.
 
Sit: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals. “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.” – Albert Einstein
 
The last time Palmer was recommended as the “sit” in this column, he threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. This week, I’ll tempt fate and say he belongs on your bench against a tough Steelers defense. Besides, Albert Einstein’s intelligence was vastly overrated. That’s why you’ll often hear a person refer to someone as “Einstein” if they did something stupid.
 
RankRunning BacksTeamOppAverage
1Adrian PetersonMINARI98.20
2Michael TurnerATLTB87.40
3Arian FosterHOUSD86.00
4LaDainian TomlinsonNYJat DET85.40
5Matt ForteCHIat BUF84.40
6LeSean McCoyPHIIND84.00
7Darren McFaddenOAKKC83.00
T-7Rashard MendenhallPITat CIN83.00
9Ahmad BradshawNYGat SEA81.60
10Ray RiceBALMIA80.60
11Jamaal CharlesKCat OAK80.40
12Thomas JonesKCat OAK78.00
13Peyton HillsCLENE75.20
14Shonn GreeneNYJat DET70.60
15Jahvid BestDETNYJ70.44
16Cedric BensonCINPIT69.00
17Ryan MathewsSDat HOU68.96
18Beanie WellsARIat MIN67.60
19Jonathan StewartCARNO67.40
20BenJarvus Green-EllisNEat CLE66.80
21Fred JacksonBUFCHI66.20
22Michael BushOAKKC65.92
23Chris IvoryNOat CAR65.08
24Felix JonesDALat GB65.04
25Ronnie BrownMIAat BAL65.00
26Brandon JacksonGBDAL64.60
27Marshawn LynchSEANYG63.60
28Brandon JacobsNYGat SEA63.20
T-28Mike TolbertSDat HOU63.20
30Ricky WilliamsMIAat BAL63.00
31LeGarrette BlountTBat ATL62.40
32Mike HartINDat PHI58.26
33Marion BarberDALat GB58.00
34Cadillac WilliamsTBat ATL57.60
35Danny WoodheadNEat CLE57.40
36Ladell BettsNOat CAR54.20
37Justin ForsettSEANYG53.60
38Chester TaylorCHIat BUF49.00
39Jason SnellingATLTB46.40
40Tim HightowerARIat MIN45.60
41Derrick WardHOUSD43.80
42Darren SprolesSDat HOU43.60
43Toby GerhartMINARI43.40
44John KuhnGBDAL42.00
45C.J. SpillerBUFCHI41.80
46Donald BrownINDat PHI41.44
47DeAngelo WilliamsCARNO41.28
48Willis McGaheeBALMIA40.80
49Mike BellCLENE39.40
50Tashard ChoiceDALat GB35.60
51Bernard ScottCINPIT34.40
52Jerome HarrisonPHIIND33.20
53Kevin SmithDETNYJ30.60
54Mewelde MoorePITat CIN27.20
55Earnest GrahamTBat ATL26.40
56LeRon McClainBALMIA26.20
57Isaac RedmanPITat CIN26.00
T-57Leon WashingtonSEANYG26.00
59Marcel ReeceOAKKC24.60
60Steve SlatonHOUSD19.00

 
Start: Matt Forte, Chicago Bears. Forte has rushed for a total of 52 yards in his last two games. During that time, he’s only averaging nine carries per contest. I’ll assume he was being kept in the backfield to help protect Jay Cutler. I’m sorry, I couldn’t resist.
 
While the Bears rushing attack has been less than impressive, it’s about to take on a Buffalo defense that had only held one team under 100 yards rushing all season. If there was ever a week for Forte to get going, it’s Week 9 against the Bills.
 
Sit: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks. Lynch is the starter in Seattle, but he’ll continue to lose touches to both Justin Forsett and Leon Washington, especially in passing situations. Combine that with an ever-improving Giants defense and Lynch is unlikely to have the running room or the opportunity needed for a big day.
 
RankWide ReceiversTeamOppAverage
1Roddy WhiteATLTB91.40
2Reggie WayneINDat PHI89.20
3Andre JohnsonHOUSD85.60
4Miles AustinDALat GB84.40
5Greg JenningsGBDAL84.20
6Anquan BoldinBALMIA82.80
7Brandon MarshallMIAat BAL82.20
8Calvin JohnsonDETNYJ81.80
9Hakeem NicksNYGat SEA81.00
10Wes WelkerNEat CLE80.80
11Hines WardPITat CIN79.40
12Larry FitzgeraldARIat MIN79.00
13Pierre GarconINDat PHI76.80
T-13Marques ColstonNOat CAR76.80
15Mike WilliamsTBat ATL75.60
16Jeremy MaclinPHIIND74.60
17Steve SmithNYGat SEA74.40
18Mike WallacePITat CIN74.20
19Dwayne BoweKCat OAK74.00
20Johnny KnoxCHIat BUF73.80
21Steve SmithCARNO72.80
22Braylon EdwardsNYJat DET72.60
23Terrell OwensCINPIT72.40
24Deion BranchNEat CLE69.68
25Percy HarvinMINARI69.32
26Mike WilliamsSEANYG69.20
27Chad OchocincoCINPIT69.00
28Santonio HolmesNYJat DET67.60
29Lee EvansBUFCHI67.20
30Steve BreastonARIat MIN66.51
31DeSean JacksonPHIIND66.47
32Steve JohnsonBUFCHI66.00
33Mario ManninghamNYGat SEA65.60
34James JonesGBDAL64.60
35Derrick MasonBALMIA63.80
36Lance MooreNOat CAR62.80
37Davone BessMIAat BAL60.80
38Roy WilliamsDALat GB60.40
T-38Patrick CraytonSDat HOU60.40
40Jacoby JonesHOUSD59.80
41Robert MeachemNOat CAR59.60
42Kevin WalterHOUSD59.40
43Jerricho CotcheryNYJat DET58.80
44Dez BryantDALat GB58.60
45Austin CollieINDat PHI58.13
46Darrius Heyward-BeyOAKKC55.40
47T.J. HoushmandzadehBALMIA55.00
48David GettisCARNO54.60
49Devin HesterCHIat BUF50.60
50Joshua CribbsCLENE50.00
51Brandon TateNEat CLE49.40
52Michael JenkinsATLTB48.00
T-52Nate BurlesonDETNYJ48.00
54Devery HendersonNOat CAR46.20
55Seyi AjirotutuSDat HOU45.40
56Jordy NelsonGBDAL45.00
57Mohamed MassaquoiCLENE44.60
58Louis MurphyOAKKC44.04
59Bernard BerrianMINARI43.40
60Earl BennettCHIat BUF43.20
T-60Jason AvantPHIIND43.20
62Brian HartlineMIAat BAL42.20
63Early DoucetARIat MIN42.00
T-63Deon ButlerSEANYG42.00
65Sammie StroughterTBat ATL41.80
66Harry DouglasATLTB41.60
67Chris ChambersKCat OAK40.80
T-67Greg LewisMINARI40.80
69Dexter McClusterKCat OAK40.60
70Jordan ShipleyCINPIT40.20
71Antwaan Randle ElPITat CIN38.40
72Brandon LaFellCARNO38.20
73Roscoe ParrishBUFCHI36.40
74Devin AromashoduCHIat BUF36.00
75Arrelious BennTBat ATL32.20
76Julian EdelmanNEat CLE32.00
77Golden TateSEANYG31.40
78Legedu NaaneeSDat HOU31.30
79Brandon StokleySEANYG29.20
80Blair WhiteINDat PHI29.00
81Brian RobiskieCLENE27.20
82Michael SpurlockTBat ATL26.00
83Bryant JohnsonDETNYJ25.60
84Jacoby FordOAKKC25.40
85Malcom FloydSDat HOU24.76
86Andre RobertsARIat MIN24.00
87Brian FinneranATLTB18.20
88Andre CaldwellCINPIT17.00
89Brad SmithNYJat DET16.20
90Donald DriverGBDAL15.23

 
Start: Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m giving the Steelers offense a pass for last week. Ben Roethlisberger and company had been on a roll prior to Week 8, and I’m willing to forgive one hiccup against the Super Bowl champs. Ward didn’t do much either against the Saints (3/15/0), but came awfully close to catching a 40-yard touchdown that would have saved his day. I’m betting the Steelers bounce back this week versus Cincinnati and that Ward is a big part of the reason.
 
Sit: Santonio Holmes, New York Jets. Whenever a receiver drops a pass, it’s always referred to as a “key drop.” The term is undoubtedly being overused. It’s gotten to the point where a player can’t drop a single pass without it being consequential. I feel like our standards for what constitutes a “key drop” should be higher. Anyway, weather you agree or not, Holmes had a variety of drops last week. So far this year, he’s averaging just over three catches per game. Considering his most recent performance, along with the Jets pension for running the ball, it’s tough to see Holmes increasing that average this week.
 
RankTight EndsTeamOppAverage
1Jason WittenDALat GB81.00
2Dustin KellerNYJat DET80.00
3Aaron HernandezNEat CLE78.40
4Visanthe ShiancoeMINARI77.20
5Tony GonzalezATLTB76.80
6Greg OlsenCHIat BUF72.80
7Tony MoeakiKCat OAK71.80
8Jeremy ShockeyNOat CAR71.12
9Owen DanielsHOUSD70.80
10Todd HeapBALMIA70.69
11Antonio GatesSDat HOU70.35
12Ben WatsonCLENE69.80
T-12Jacob TammeINDat PHI69.80
T-12Kellen WinslowTBat ATL69.80
15Zach MillerOAKKC69.40
16Brent CelekPHIIND69.00
T-16Heath MillerPITat CIN69.00
18Jermaine GreshamCINPIT68.40
19John CarlsonSEANYG67.20
20Brandon PettigrewDETNYJ63.20
21Kevin BossNYGat SEA61.80
22Andrew QuarlessGBDAL59.40
23Anthony FasanoMIAat BAL59.00
24Jeff KingCARNO53.00
25Rob GronkowskiNEat CLE52.40
26Ben PatrickARIat MIN49.40
27Donald LeeGBDAL49.20
28Tony SchefflerDETNYJ46.20
29Jonathan StuparBUFCHI41.60
30Randy McMichaelSDat HOU25.60

 
Start: Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings. He’s been my “sit” for the last two weeks and he’s delivered. Shiancoe didn’t reach 40 yards or find the end zone in either game. So why the change of heart? Randy Moss. That’s the reason. Moss is gone, and that means Shiancoe has become something of an endangered species. Namely, a Vikings pass-catcher with the ability to get open. He should see a lot targets in Week 9 against Arizona.
 
Sit: Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints. Shockey is still talented enough to have a big game. Unfortunately, predicting said game is next to impossible thanks to Drew Brees’ ability to spread the ball around.
 
RankTeam DefenseTeamOppAverage
1SteelersPITat CIN88.80
2JetsNYJat DET84.60
3GiantsNYGat SEA82.00
4PackersGBDAL80.20
5BearsCHIat BUF79.80
6SaintsNOat CAR78.60
7RavensBALMIA78.20
8VikingsMINARI76.80
9FalconsATLTB76.20
10ChargersSDat HOU75.20
11PatriotsNEat CLE74.80
12ChiefsKCat OAK74.60
13ColtsINDat PHI72.20
14DolphinsMIAat BAL71.00
15SeahawksSEANYG70.20
16EaglesPHIIND69.00
17BengalsCINPIT68.00
18CardinalsARIat MIN67.20
19CowboysDALat GB66.20
20RaidersOAKKC65.40
21BuccaneersTBat ATL63.00
22BillsBUFCHI62.80
23LionsDETNYJ61.60
24TexansHOUSD61.00
25PanthersCARNO60.80
26BrownsCLENE57.80

 
Start: New York Giants. We’ve already established that Marshawn Lynch isn’t going anywhere.
 
Sit: Detroit Lions. The Lions earned a win over Washington last week by stopping Rex Grossman with the game on the line. Apparently, starting quarterback Donovan McNabb was a little tuckered and head coach Mike Shanahan felt Grossman gave them a better chance to win. I find it hard to believe that a professional athlete can make it through 98% of a game and not get through the last 2% on some combination of adrenaline and Chunky™ soup.
 
RankKickersTeamOppAverage
1Robbie GouldCHIat BUF86.20
2Mason CrosbyGBDAL85.40
T-2Kris BrownSDat HOU85.40
4Stephen GostkowskiNEat CLE83.60
5Nick FolkNYJat DET82.20
6Neil RackersHOUSD80.80
7Matt BryantATLTB80.00
8David AkersPHIIND79.80
9Sebastian JanikowskiOAKKC79.20
10Mike NugentCINPIT78.80
11Adam VinatieriINDat PHI78.40
12Jeff ReedPITat CIN78.20
13Garrett HartleyNOat CAR77.60
14Ryan LongwellMINARI76.80
15Lawrence TynesNYGat SEA76.00
16Dan CarpenterMIAat BAL75.40
17Jason HansonDETNYJ74.00
18Ryan SuccopKCat OAK71.40
19David BuehlerDALat GB70.80
20Jay FeelyARIat MIN69.00
21Billy CundiffBALMIA68.80
22Phil DawsonCLENE66.80
23Rian LindellBUFCHI65.80
T-23Connor BarthTBat ATL65.80
25John KasayCARNO65.20
26Olindo MareSEANYG63.40

 
Start: Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers. He accounted for all of Green Bay’s points last week and the Cowboys haven’t been synonymous with defensive excellence lately.
 
Sit: Jason Hanson, Detroit Lions. Just because.
 

 
Drew is a lifelong Jets fan. Playing and writing about fantasy football has proven helpful in easing the pain.
 
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16 Responses to “Week 9: Stop the Insanity!”

  1. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Foster is awesome! But at #3 this week against SD who is #2 against the rush at 83 yards per game and only 5 TDs…? I’m thinking he belongs somewhere between 7-10.

    Brandon Marshall does not belong in the top-10! I repeat, Brandon Marshall does not belong in the top-10. Name recognition does not equal fantasy production. He comes in ranked 14th in my PPR league and this isn’t even a PPR ranking column. C’mon rankers! He’s got 1 receiving TD all year and an average matchup this week – not even a great matchup. I would start Mike Williams (13), Steven Johnson (32!) with 5 straight TD games, and Patrick Crayton (38) against HOU before I ever played Marshall this week.

    Tamme comes in at 12 in the tight end set, and I suppose that will be the logical line of thinking across all fantasy websites. He went for 60+ and a TD last week and Manning went to him often. I’m hoping he turns into a weekly starter and against PHL defense, I would have ranked him higher than Moeaki (who was an epic failure last week against BUF’s miserable TE-defense) and Shockey. I also wouldn’t rank Hernandez that high until he proves he can get in the end zone. It doesn’t appear that NE game plans for him in the red zone, so Hernandez drops down below 7 for me.

    And Olindo Mare ranked 26th! Are you kidding me!?!?!? Just kidding ;)

    ReplyReply
  2. User avatar daullaz says:

    Great points all around, Joe.

    I do want to point out that our raters made very astute projections at TE (IMO) with regards to Shiancoe (4) and Olsen (6). Neither have done much in recent weeks, but Shiancoe gets a huge boost with Moss’ exile, while Olsen has a very good matchup against Buffalo that I think he’ll exploit.

    Other calls I liked:

    Vikings D in the top ten against ARI despite being pretty bad this year.
    Brent Celek out of the TE1 range with Vick under center.
    James Jones in WR3 range with no Driver.
    Having the guts to rank fantasy’s best QB outside the top 15.

    ReplyReply
  3. User avatar joejlitz says:

    I liked the Olsen pick, too. If I didn’t get Tamme on waivers, I was gunning for Olsen.

    ReplyReply
  4. MistaBigxxL says:

    Forgive my criticism but it baffles me that Shonn Greene is continually ranked within the top 15. His touches have been declining despite what Rex Ryan gas said about getting him more involved. Are we expecting LT to get injured or something? Until I see the trend change there is no way I would rank him above guys like Green-Ellis, Blount, or Benson.

    Can you explain your rationale?

    ReplyReply
  5. Balto says:

    Austin Collie looks to be a GO for this weekends game against Philly. With this new info where would you place him on your list?

    ReplyReply
  6. kennydg111 says:

    Rivers is ranked as the number one quarterback yet Gates is questionable at best and Crayton is the highest ranked Charger receiver. If Crayton and / or Gates do not perform higher than your current rankings, I really doubt Rivers has a prayer to be even in the top 5 qb’s this week

    ReplyReply
  7. User avatar lacunacoiler says:

    Shockey on the top 10 rankings this week & is listed as the sit of the week??? it doesn’t make sense at all with your recommendations considering gates is ranked lower than him(even with gates’ injury)..

    ReplyReply
  8. User avatar u_fig_eater says:

    Shonn Greene is 45th in Yahoo! PPG scoring. Which means he would be borderline waiver-wire material, if he were not on the Jets. As for his high rank this week, I think people are predicting a NYJ blowout over the Lions. They’re probably banking on Greene getting garbage time. I wouldn’t be so sure. I think the Lions are going to put up a good fight, and it could be a high-scoring affair. In which case LT will have the lions’s share of the carries again.

    ReplyReply
  9. User avatar u_fig_eater says:

    Also, by all reports Desean Jackson looks like he is all systems go. I’d bump him up a bit in the rankings, maybe even top 20.

    ReplyReply
  10. User avatar Abiding Dude says:

    I traded for Moss on Monday when he was released and had no team (after a message entitled “Anyone want to trade for Moss” was left on our board). I took a flyer and offered Anthony Gonzales, who played his first game for the Colts since week 1 where he was injured. The guy bit on the trade and it cleared with two vetoes. It was then reversed by the commissioner after the fact (due to accusations of collusion) when Moss was a Titan and it was found out that Gonzales had a season ending injury on Monday night. It would have been a terrible trade for the other guy, but it still remains to see if I would have faired any better.

    ReplyReply
  11. User avatar joejlitz says:

    ufig – great comment about Greene. I didn’t notice that.

    kennydg – I still love Rivers this week. He goes against the worst passing D in football who have given up something like 15 TD passes. He’ll make it work.

    And now that we’ve all bashed our rankers enough times (myself included), I’d like to say thanks to those who put this together. Lord knows I don’t have the time this month.

    Abiding – we have conversations just like yours in this forum: http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=238

    ReplyReply
  12. User avatar daullaz says:

    Balto – I’m going to slot Collie into Gonzalez’s spot at 45, since he will likely be filling the same role.

    ReplyReply
  13. kennydg111 says:

    joejlitz – I think Rivers will do fine as well although I would probably have him ranked at 5 or 6. My point was someone has to catch the ball and Crayton is the highest ranked SD receiver at 38 and Gates is ranked 11th. It just seems like a bit of a disconnect.

    ReplyReply
  14. User avatar jdogg_ffc says:

    I see Donald Brown as the Colts starter this wk. Mike Hart didn’t even make the trip so he def won’t be playing.
    So just pencil Brown in at 32 on your rankings?

    ReplyReply
  15. User avatar u_fig_eater says:

    Greene: 55 total yards
    DeSean Jackson: 129 total yards, 1 TD

    ReplyReply
  16. User avatar u_fig_eater says:

    Shonn Greene was outscored by phenoms Tyrell Sutton and Corey McIntyre. He did manage to outscore the great Mike Goodson by 0.8 points. Definitely should be ranked top 15 next week. Top 15 busts, that is.

    ReplyReply

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