Welcome to Litz’s Weekly Winners. Each week, the Cafe’s resident gaming expert will post his prognostications for NFL games while taking into account the point spread. Litz went 3-3-1 last week and is ready to get back to his winning ways in Week 11.
There are a lot of games I like this weekend; I just don’t like them with the current point spreads. So, I’m going to use the teaser bet to my advantage. A teaser bet is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers but is different in that it also allows you to adjust the point spread of each individual wager. For two-team teasers, give your teams an additional seven points in addition to the spread. When teasing over/under bets, you get six additional points. Home teams in CAPS.
Tease: Detroit (+13.5) at DALLAS; BALTIMORE (-4) vs. Carolina. After last week’s push, the Lions are still a fantastic 7-1-1 against the spread (ATS), but given the Cowboys’ change at head coach and their success against the Giants in Week 10, I’m not sure what to make of Dallas (2-7 ATS). I’m bumping the spread up seven points and taking the Lions +13.5, who are capable of winning this football game. As for Carolina, they are a terrible football team who is 2-7 ATS and going up against the 6-3 Ravens in Baltimore. I’ll gladly give four points and watch as Baltimore wins this one 27-20.
Tease: NEW ENGLAND (+3) vs. Indianapolis; KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. Arizona. In these two matchups, I looked hard at the home and road records of each of the teams. The Patriots are 4-0 and averaging 30 points per game at home this year, while the Colts are 2-3 and averaging less than 23 points while on the road. I like teasing the Patriots from a four point favorite to a three point underdog at home. In Kansas City, the Chiefs are 4-0 at home and 3-1 ATS, while the Cardinals are 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones should run wild against a rush defense that has yielded 132 yards per game and 10 touchdowns. Look for KC to win this one 28-24.
ST. LOUIS (+3) vs. Atlanta. The Falcons are 7-2 on the year, have won three in a row, and have the best record in the NFC. They scored an emotional win in the last 33 seconds against Baltimore last week, but are only 2-2 on the road and will have to take to the air as St. Louis is sixth against the rush. The Rams (4-5) come off a tough loss in overtime at SF and head back to Saint Louis, where they are a stout 4-1 straight up and ATS. I’m rolling with the home dog and betting on the Falcons to drop their third game of the year.
SAN DIEGO (-9.5) vs. Denver. The Broncos are a very bad road team (1-3), while the Chargers have been very good at home (3-1). Not only that, but SD is 6-2 in their last eight games against Denver and have averaged 36.5 points during that span. Trends don’t get much better than that. Roll with the Super Chargers.
Cleveland (+2) at JACKSONVILLE. This one is just a gut feel. If you are a degenerate like me and just looking for some action, bet on the Browns!
On the year: Litz is 23-19-2.
Litz has been playing fantasy sports since the late 80s - back when it was all referred to as rotisserie and as commissioner, kept track of the leagues with a USA Today and a pencil. It's a passion of his during the NFL season. Thanks to the Fantasy Cafe for providing a forum for enthusiasts like us to get together. You can find Litz posting in the Cafe forums as joejlitz.
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