StrategyNovember 21, 2010

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Litz’s Weekly Winners – Week 11 - 1 comments

By Joseph Malizia

Welcome to Litz’s Weekly Winners. Each week, the Cafe’s resident gaming expert will post his prognostications for NFL games while taking into account the point spread. Litz went 3-3-1 last week and is ready to get back to his winning ways in Week 11.

There are a lot of games I like this weekend; I just don’t like them with the current point spreads. So, I’m going to use the teaser bet to my advantage. A teaser bet is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers but is different in that it also allows you to adjust the point spread of each individual wager. For two-team teasers, give your teams an additional seven points in addition to the spread. When teasing over/under bets, you get six additional points. Home teams in CAPS.

ORCHARD PARK, NY - NOVEMBER 14: Calvin Johnson  of the Detroit Lions catches a touchdown pass in the last minute of the game against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on November 14, 2010 in Orchard Park, New York. Buffalo won 14-12. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)

Tease: Detroit (+13.5) at DALLAS; BALTIMORE (-4) vs. Carolina. After last week’s push, the Lions are still a fantastic 7-1-1 against the spread (ATS), but given the Cowboys’ change at head coach and their success against the Giants in Week 10, I’m not sure what to make of Dallas (2-7 ATS). I’m bumping the spread up seven points and taking the Lions +13.5, who are capable of winning this football game. As for Carolina, they are a terrible football team who is 2-7 ATS and going up against the 6-3 Ravens in Baltimore. I’ll gladly give four points and watch as Baltimore wins this one 27-20.

Tease: NEW ENGLAND (+3) vs. Indianapolis; KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. Arizona. In these two matchups, I looked hard at the home and road records of each of the teams. The Patriots are 4-0 and averaging 30 points per game at home this year, while the Colts are 2-3 and averaging less than 23 points while on the road. I like teasing the Patriots from a four point favorite to a three point underdog at home. In Kansas City, the Chiefs are 4-0 at home and 3-1 ATS, while the Cardinals are 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones should run wild against a rush defense that has yielded 132 yards per game and 10 touchdowns. Look for KC to win this one 28-24.

ST. LOUIS (+3) vs. Atlanta. The Falcons are 7-2 on the year, have won three in a row, and have the best record in the NFC. They scored an emotional win in the last 33 seconds against Baltimore last week, but are only 2-2 on the road and will have to take to the air as St. Louis is sixth against the rush. The Rams (4-5) come off a tough loss in overtime at SF and head back to Saint Louis, where they are a stout 4-1 straight up and ATS. I’m rolling with the home dog and betting on the Falcons to drop their third game of the year.

SAN DIEGO (-9.5) vs. Denver. The Broncos are a very bad road team (1-3), while the Chargers have been very good at home (3-1). Not only that, but SD is 6-2 in their last eight games against Denver and have averaged 36.5 points during that span. Trends don’t get much better than that. Roll with the Super Chargers.

Cleveland (+2) at JACKSONVILLE. This one is just a gut feel. If you are a degenerate like me and just looking for some action, bet on the Browns!

On the year: Litz is 23-19-2.

Litz has been playing fantasy sports since the late 80s - back when it was all referred to as rotisserie and as commissioner, kept track of the leagues with a USA Today and a pencil. It's a passion of his during the NFL season. Thanks to the Fantasy Cafe for providing a forum for enthusiasts like us to get together. You can find Litz posting in the Cafe forums as joejlitz.
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One Response to “Litz’s Weekly Winners – Week 11”

  1. User avatar joejlitz says:

    The Chargers domination last night allowed me to finish 2-3.

    25-22-2 on the year.


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