OpinionSeptember 19, 2010


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Litz’s Weekly Winners – Week 2 - 7 comments

By Joseph Malizia

Welcome to Litz’s Weekly Winners. Each week, the Cafe’s resident gaming expert will post his prognostications for NFL games while taking into account the point spread. Week 1 saw Litz post a 2-3 overall record; 1-0 on his Best Bet. Check out his picks for Week 2!

NO (-5.5) at SF. The Super Bowl champs squeaked out a win last week, while San Francisco got dumped harshly by Seattle. New Orleans gets its offense on track against a much weaker defense than they faced last week against Minnesota. New Orleans has covered 10 of its last 12 contests versus the 49ers and should easily cover a 5.5 point spread. Look his a big win here!

CAR (-3) vs. TB. Tampa Bay beat Cleveland last week; Carolina lost to the New York Giants and lost Matt Moore in the process. Moore should be back this week, but I envision Carolina putting on the Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams show this weekend. Stewart has killed Tampa Bay in the last 2 years and either he or Williams will run wild. Raheem Brock will be looking for a new job by Week 6. Oh yeah — the Panthers have covered seven of their last nine at home against Tampa Bay. Take the Panthers here with confidence.

OVER 43: ARI/ATL. The last eight times these teams have met, the over was 6-1-1. In September, the Falcons have gone over 10 out of its last 13 games. I see a 27-21 finish.

Tease
PHL (-6.5) +.5; UNDER (40) 46 DAL/CHI. Original line is in parenthesis. Line that plays is +.5 for Philadelphia and 46 for the UNDER. The Eagles have been great ATS against the NFC North and the Lions have been miserable against NFC East teams. I’ll take Vick in the battle of backup QBs in a tease with the under for Dallas and Chicago. Dallas couldn’t score against Washington. The UNDER has won in seven of the last nine games played between these teams.

And the Best Bet of the week is …
NE (-3) at NYJ. The Patriots are giving three in New Jersey to a supposed Super Bowl team? The line is telling you something, like to look for a NE rout. If you find that hard to believe, consider the Jets offensive performance last weekend. Tough to win games when you don’t convert third downs. Given that New England has covered 10 of its last 11 games at New York against the Jets, this one looks like a winner.

Definitions
ATS: Against the Spread
Teaser: A teaser bet is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers but is different in that it also allows you to adjust the point spread of each individual wager. For two-team teasers, give your teams an additional seven points in addition to the spread. When teasing over/under bets, you get six additional points.

 
Litz has been playing fantasy sports since the late 80s - back when it was all referred to as rotisserie and as commissioner, kept track of the leagues with a USA Today and a pencil. It's a passion of his during the NFL season. Thanks to the Fantasy Cafe for providing a forum for enthusiasts like us to get together. You can find Litz posting in the Cafe forums as joejlitz.
 
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7 Responses to “Litz’s Weekly Winners – Week 2”

  1. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Comments? I’d be glad to discuss.

    ReplyReply
  2. dick1134 says:

    1/4 so far. i don’t know how much faith to put in your pick tonight.

    ReplyReply
  3. What a bankroll slaughter! Glad I successfully avoided all of this except for tonight’s game. Hope you can make it all back on the Saints!

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  4. For the record, I think your reasoning was strong on all of these, just terribly unlucky. Especially on that teaser, missing it by a point. Looking forward to checking this out on a weekly basis!

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  5. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Thanks. I’ve been doing this for a lot of years for fun – not so much how much I can make. A succeesful year for me is about .500, but at least this gives people a couple new things to think about. Still…no way I thought I would be 1-3 going into MNF!

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  6. Yikes. Fading you hard tonight, too.

    ReplyReply
  7. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Ug. Alex Smith cuts through the Saints D like a hot knife through butter and another bad break for me.

    ReplyReply

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