StrategyOctober 3, 2010


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Litz’s Weekly Winners – Week 4 - 6 comments

By Joseph Malizia

Welcome to Litz’s Weekly Winners. Each week, the Cafe’s resident gaming expert will post his prognostications for NFL games while taking into account the point spread. Week 3 was a winning week as Litz went 2-1. Check out his picks for Week 4!

OVER 44 TEN/DEN. Kyle Orton threw for 476 yards last week. Tennessee is the third-highest scoring team in the AFC and has Chris Johnson bowling over opposing line backers. Add in the fact that the last six times these teams have played, Vegas underestimated the OVER/UNDER and you’ve got a recipe for success. Anything more than a 24-20 outcome is an easy victory.

Tease
IND (-7) EVEN at JAX; MIA (+1) +8 vs. NE. Original line is in parenthesis. Line that plays is EVEN for Indianapolis and +8 for Miami. Jacksonville is coming off a miserable performance against the Eagles, so this should be a rebound game for them, right? If the Jaguars had any combination of pride and talent, it might be. However, the Jags just don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Colts. Teasing the line down from 7 means that the Colts simply need to win. As for the Dolphins, Chad Henne came into his own last week, dropping 363 passing yards and 2 touchdowns on the vaunted Jets defense. The Patriots are coming off an emotional and exhausting divisional win against Buffalo. Now, they have to face another divisional rival on the road. Historical considerations: New England is only 1-2 ATS in 2010, which means that Vegas and the public are overestimating them early in the season; Miami is 2-1 ATS this year. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their past 5 games against the Pats.

And the Best Bet of the week is …
GB -14 vs. DET. No one likes to give up two touchdowns, but it’s the right play here in Green Bay. With Matthew Stafford still on the sidelines and Jahvid Best nursing turf toe, Detroit will have some trouble putting points on the board. Not so for Green Bay whose 78 points is second in the NFC. The Packers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Bears in Chicago and I love this as a bounce back trouncing. Historical considerations: The Lions have covered only 4 times in the last 19 trips to Green Bay; The Packers are 10-3 Against the Spread (ATS) in the past 13 games against fellow AFC North teams.

Definitions
ATS: Against the Spread
Teaser: A teaser bet is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers but is different in that it also allows you to adjust the point spread of each individual wager. For two-team teasers, give your teams an additional seven points in addition to the spread. When teasing over/under bets, you get six additional points.

On the year: Litz has had a slow start going 5-8 overall and 1-2 on best bets.

 
Litz has been playing fantasy sports since the late 80s - back when it was all referred to as rotisserie and as commissioner, kept track of the leagues with a USA Today and a pencil. It's a passion of his during the NFL season. Thanks to the Fantasy Cafe for providing a forum for enthusiasts like us to get together. You can find Litz posting in the Cafe forums as joejlitz.
 
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6 Responses to “Litz’s Weekly Winners – Week 4”

  1. User avatar JoshKnows46 says:

    Looks Like a solid Card broham, Best of luck!!

    ReplyReply
  2. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Thanks, Josh.

    ReplyReply
  3. User avatar joejlitz says:

    So far, 20 total points in TEN/DEN at the half. GB up by 7 towards the end of 2.

    ReplyReply
  4. User avatar joejlitz says:

    1-1 after the 1:00 games. Teaser bet to go.

    ReplyReply
  5. User avatar BoyNamedSue says:

    Please leave my Titans out of future Over/Under/Odds conversations….clearly it brings bad juju

    ReplyReply
  6. 2010: Year of the Bookie

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