StrategyAugust 20, 2010

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Stock Crash - 2 comments

By Michael Hawes

As players climb the depth charts during training camps and preseason games, there has to be those that fall as well. Injuries, poor performances and great performances from others all contribute to the crash of certain players ADP as the 2010 season approaches. Here is a quick list of players you can either buy at bargain prices if you feel the crash is unfair or avoid altogether if you agree with the masses.

Ben Tate – RB, HOU – Really, his injury was just too bad as the kid had a shot to be the lead back for a powerhouse offense. A bad training camp makes this easier to swallow, as his performance had not moved him into that lead position at the time of his season-ending injury. There always seems to be one rookie that goes down for the year during camp. I probably don’t need to tell you to avoid.

Jamaal Charles – RB, KC – A fantastic second half of 2009 set everyone’s eyes on Charles. During early mocks, he was going as high as the late first round; then, Thomas Jones started running. Apparently, Jones still has his legs and threw all kinds of wrenches into the plans of fantasy players to get the next young stud RB onto their roster. Charles has since slipped into the late second or early third, and the comments coming out of Kansas City are not helping him. At this moment, Charles does not seem to have the trust of the coaching staff, and this one may lead to the dreaded RBBC.

Fred Jackson – RB, BUF – A broken hand has curtailed his upswing. Jackson will be out of action for 4-6 weeks, making a Week 1 debut iffy. C.J. Spiller is the more talented back and will have a dream opportunity to climb the depth chart. If Spiller is deemed good enough expect Jackson to still get his touches, just a whole lot less of them.

Knowshon Moreno – RB, DEN – Once again, the training camp injury hurts a potential stud. Moreno was the clear cut #1 back in Denver before the injury and now that little seed of doubt is forming in fantasy players’ minds. Can he take a full season of abuse in the NFL? Will Denver sign someone? They were rumored to be involved in the chase for Brian Westbrook before he signed with San Francisco. I would still take the risk on Moreno, as I feel he is clearly the most talented back in Denver.

Greg Olsen – TE, CHI – Martzworld: where TE stats go to die. A very good talent, Olsen was an early favorite for a breakout season. Mike Martz was then hired, and all expectations went up in smoke. The bad news is that no TE has ever had even close to a good season while playing in a Martz system. The good news is that beat reporters are writing that Olsen is still being heavily targeted. Right now, I don’t think there is enough information to draft him in a 12-team league. There are better options.

Kevin Walter – WR, HOU – The incumbent WR2 in Houston may lose his job officially in the near future. Jacoby Jones, a more talented WR, is hot on Walter’s heels. Earning praise from the coaching staff, it seems only a matter of time before Jones relegates Walter to the WR3 position. Walter has done well over the last couple of season playing opposite Andre Johnson, but injuries and Jones are driving his ADP down. I am avoiding him.

Michael Hawes is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Michael in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of bungle613.
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2 Responses to “Stock Crash”

  1. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Change 1 to the Charles/Jones RBBC:
    Rotoworld: “Chiefs coach Todd Haley suggested that Jamaal Charles was finally beginning to live up to his ambiguous buy lofty expectations after Saturday’s preseason game.

    “Jamaal was running closer to where we want him,” explained Haley. Apparently, Charles’ 9.3 yards per carry in the first preseason game wasn’t sufficient. Charles is up to 7.0 YPC in two exhibition games versus Thomas Jones’ 3.1 YPC. As the Kansas City star suggests, “It’s not been a stellar preseason for Jones, who has been outplayed” by both Charles and Dexter McCluster.”

  2. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Rotoworld hasn’t updated its Aug 5 statement that Walter is still the #1. It would be interesting to get the coach to say something.

    Last night’s game against NO:
    Walter: 1 catch, 32 yards
    Jones: 2 catches, 29 yards

    It would be smart to draft one of these guys given that they play in HOU with Schaub and Andre Johnson pulling double coverage on the other side. I’d like to KNOW which one to draft in my upcoming draft. C’mon HOU: make a decision!


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