StrategyAugust 28, 2010

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Five Value Picks – Quarterbacks - 3 comments

By Michael Hawes

We all scour stats, articles and whatever else we can get our hands on to find those players that will outperform their ADP. Being able to find those players that you can draft in the seventh round that you firmly believe at the end of the season will be ranked far ahead of that ADP is key to a successful fantasy football year. Here are five of my favorite contenders at the quarterback position for most valuable pick.


Jay Cutler, QB, CHI (current ADP – 7.01) – How can you not take a shot on a Martz QB? Cutler had proven he has an arm, now if he proves he has a brain we have a winning combination. You can’t just be a good QB in Martzworld, you have to be smart and quick, both in body and mind. If Cutler can not get the hang of a Martz system it could be a long year. My guess is that he has a big enough ego that he will give everything he has to make this work, and if it clicks, he may be a top three QB in fantasy terms. Currently ranked as the QB9.

Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS (current ADP – 10.01) – A new home for what is annually an undervalued QB on a per-game basis. My personal knock on him is that he doesn’t play full seasons, as he has had only one 16-game season in the last five years. If he can stay healthy for a full year, he is a top 10 QB, and he has proven this statistically over the last several years. Even with a less talented group of skill players surrounding him in Washington he should be able to put up solid numbers. Top 5? No, though top 10 is very possible. Currently ranked as the QB15.

Chad Henne, QB, MIA (current ADP – 11.08) – Chad has taken huge steps to being a legitimate NFL QB over the last year. He has the confidence of the Dolphins coaching staff as shown in the final five games of 2009 when he averaged 40 attempts per game. He has the tools of an NFL quarterback, and with R & R (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) keeping the defenses honest as Brandon Marshall comes to the team, Henne should take another huge step in 2010. Currently ranked as the QB17.

Matt Moore, QB, CAR (current ADP – 14.01) – Matt Moore just likes to score TDs. Nothing flashy. He will never be a top-five QB, but he can and will outplay his current QB25 designation. A team that will play for him, a contract year and a coaching staff with nothing to lose combine to make a nice scenario to allow Moore to exceed his current ADP. I think it is possible he is closer to a top-15 QB, making him a nice bye-week filler. Currently ranked as the QB25.

David Garrard, QB, JAX (current ADP – 14.10) – My favorite pick for the QBs. The Rodney Dangerfield of NFL QBs, Garrard continues to get no respect. What has he done since taking over for Byron Leftwich? 15th, 9th and 16th best QB over the last three years, respectively. In 2007, where he ended up as the 16th best QB, he played just 12 games. David Garrard may not be the best option as a starting QB in fantasy football, but there is not one single QB ranked outside the top 15 that I would take ahead of Garrard. He is the best backup fantasy football QB around. Currently ranked as the QB29.

Big Ben would have been on this list, but I decided to base our value picks on an entire year. With his multiple game suspension he will not surpass his overall ADP, but don’t hesitate to target him as a fantastic option for the second half of the season. Just pray to the FF gods your QB1 does not get hurt in the first four weeks.

Michael Hawes is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. Nearly 20 years of FF, had to have learned something in that time. You can catch up with Michael in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of bungle613.
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3 Responses to “Five Value Picks – Quarterbacks”

  1. User avatar urbanbreez says:

    Why did this article get such a low approval rating? Is it Cultler? I’m curious to know why people scored the way they did. Don’t just drop a two and not have the common decency to offer constructive criticism.

    I love the Henne pick but disagree with McNabb, who I think on the downside of a career with one foot out the door.

  2. User avatar PuntinFool says:

    I agree that those who left a low score should own up to it. I have a feeling people are still skeptical on Cutler (I sorta am based on last year) and perhaps have little faith in McNabb (which is a pity, even if the offensive line is troublesome). Moore and Garrard are on rather unpopular teams, but that’s exactly why one could possibly sneak away with them if they think they’re worth something.

    Since this article is titled ‘Five Value Picks’, it is important to focus on the word ‘value’. You could probably get the last four guys for a song as QB2 types, and with Cutler’s shaky consistency he’s a good gamble for a QB1. Considering where you’re likely to draft these guys, this article remains true to its title.

  3. Hippo45 says:

    I can’t believe Matt Moore is on this over Alex Smith.


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