SleepersOctober 8, 2011

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Sleeper Watch - 1 comments

By Doug Adams

Fantasy football is kind of like real estate: you buy the old fixer-upper and you sell it at its highest point. The most common mistake in fantasy football is that guys fall in love with their sleepers just to be the guy who said “I drafted him!” (Eye roll from the room.) Yeah, no one really cares. Here are some guys I say you should let go to get the disappointing veteran with upside or above-average player with weak schedule going ahead.

In the preseason, we were all told about how Raiders WR Denarius Moore was the best player in camp. Most owners shrugged their shoulders, but Moore has made you pay if you passed by amounting 40 fantasy points (a 10 point-per-game average) in his first four weeks of action. The young Oakland rookie wide receiver has accounted for 247 total yards and three touchdowns and an impressive 20 targets from veteran quarterback Jason Campbell.

Sell. After saying all that, sell him like Enron stock. Moore, although talented, was limited to just three catches for 19 yards and a late score in the first games back for Jacoby Ford and Darrius Heyward-Bey. With Oakland’s two starting wide receivers returning, Moore has lost value, so trade him while his perceived value is still high.

After Week 1’s Monday night game against the Oakland Raiders, Eric Decker was the next hot thing. Coming off a game in which he had three catches for 53 yards and returned a punt 90 yards for a touchdown, he was given an opportunity to start due to Brandon Lloyd’s groin injury. Those who picked up Decker got an instant payoff as he lit up the Cincinnati Bengals top-ranked defense for five catches, 113 yards and two touchdowns. Since entering the Broncos starting lineup in Week 2, Decker has had 17 catches for 217 yards and four touchdowns, the latter being key that Kyle Orton has built a great relationship with his second year wide receiver and he trusts the prospect out of the University of Minnesota.

Sell. Even though I love the upside of Decker, he has a tough matchup this week versus San Diego. The Chargers have allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to WRs this season, and following his tough matchup the Broncos will be on bye. The other scary factor for a Decker owner is that Tim Tebow could take over as the starting quarterback; although impressive in three games last season, Tebow has continued to struggle with accuracy, while he only focused on one half the field last year to slow the game down for him. Decker’s upside would be limited if (when?) Orton is replaced for the next big thing coming out of the University of Florida. Most NFL teams like to make quarterback switches during their bye week, which is next week for Denver. Week 7 could be Tebow time — great for Denver fans, bad for Eric Decker.

Other notable sells: Chiefs RB Dexter McCluster, Bills TE Scott Chandler, Redskins TE Fred Davis.

Who’s Next

Buy: Preston Parker. Parker is a great option to acquire right now coming off a big Monday night game against the Indianapolis Colts where he caught five passes for 70 yards and a touchdown. Coverages have been rolled to slow down second-year wideout Mike Williams, giving Parker one-on-one coverage that he continues to beat. He has great hands, is a really nice route runner and has earned the trust of Josh Freeman in the biggest situations, which was proven on the touchdown Monday Night against the Colts. In Week 5, Parker gets a poor 49ers secondary that has allowed the fourth most points so far this season to fantasy wide receivers. Parker has really nice upside going forward; think of him as a poor man’s Wes Welker or a Davone Bess with a better quarterback situation.

Buy: Jackie Battle. Battle’s path to a starting job could be only a week or two from coming to fruition, as Thomas Jones continues to struggle, averaging under three yards per carry since he replaced injured starter Jamaal Charles. Battle last week in limited work averaged a respectful 4.4 YPC in spelling Jones, and according to the Kansas City Star, he’ll be more involved in the offense this coming week at Indianapolis. With a strong outing, he could take over as the starter for Thomas Jones. The Chiefs have continued to try and protect Dexter McCluster by limiting his touches (limiting his fantasy value as well), but where one star burns out another one forms, and that star could be the fourth year running back out of the University of Houston.

Other buys: Colts RB Delone Carter, Bears WR Dane Sanzenbacher, Eagles TE Clay Harbor.

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One Response to “Week 5 Sleeper Buy and Sells”

  1. wrxman says:

    I don’t think I’d be to quick to sell F Davis.


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