StrategyJuly 20, 2011

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Top Five Overvalued Picks for 2011 - 1 comments

By Michael Hawes

Here are my choices for the five most overvalued players for the 2011 draft based on ADP as of 07/19/11.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN (Current ADP 4.10, WR18) – Everything points to a massive drop off for last year’s darling. Kyle Orton is rumored to be either out the door or on the bench, with Tim Tebow taking over as the QB1 in Denver. A new coach, John Fox, with possibly the most run-oriented offensive book in the league is now calling the plays. Lastly, he just isn’t that good. Lloyd to me was the perfect reflection of in the right place at the right time. He formed a great connection with Orton, was in a deep ball friendly system under McDaniels and made the most of it. 27-year-olds just don’t become elite. I can’t think of another that became a reliable, elite level WR. His first seven years in the league he amassed 327 points total; in 2010, he hit for 210.8. Don’t count on it again.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI (Current ADP 2.11, WR6) – I love the guy’s ability. D-Jax is a highlight reel and fun to watch even if he acts … let’s call it a little young at times. The problem is that he is going off the board as the sixth best WR in the league. He couldn’t even outscore his younger counterpart Jeremy Maclin in 2010. He was the 19th best WR last year and even if you give him the benefit of the doubt and go by points per game he was the 14th best. I don’t see any reason to elevate him to the elite level of a top six WR. I have Maclin taking another leap in his development in 2011 and increasing the distance between him and Jackson. Late second round to the fourth round is not a huge drop but when I look at the value of a second round pick, it seems to mean more. Let him slide and pick him up as a WR2 if you can; if not, just let him pass on by because he will not end up as the WR6 for 2011.

Jimmy Graham, TE, NOS (Current ADP 7.03, TE7) – Oh my, the New Orleans reception carousel. Who will get the points? My guess is not Graham, at least not to the level of where he is being drafted. Almost everyone has learned to be wary of the New Orleans passing game with Drew Brees showing no favoritism at all. Yes, they score a ton of points each week but the breakdown is virtually unpredictable. Marques Colston had knee surgery number five this offseason, but if you recall after knee surgery number four he still put up 84/1022/7 in only 11 starts. This may be the year his knee implodes, but I don’t think so. Robert Meachem has had time to heal the nagging ankle and is a quiet breakout candidate, followed by Lance Moore, who will get his steady diet of balls. New toy Mark Ingram will get his share of TDs and touches. This leaves Jimmy Graham to figure out. The most talented TE on the roster, he should easily win the full time starting gig for the Saints but he is going off the board as the TE7 ahead of some proven tight ends. I like the kid and he could be great, but this year I will let him go in the seventh and pick up a steady, reliable TE a little later or draft the tail end of the elite TEs about 12 picks earlier.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN (Current ADP 4.06, RB19) – Denver is not exactly being shy about yelling they need a running back, a feature back. Moreno after only one year has been designated as soft and a third down back at best in the NFL. His stats for 2010 were fine, even good, but the writing is on the wall from Bronco insiders to beat writers to fan forums, and almost everyone has all but written off Moreno as the starter in Denver for 2011. Current projections from a couple of major fantasy sites have him dropping roughly 30 points from his 2010 numbers. If DeAngelo Williams is landed by the Broncos expect those numbers to fall substantially more. He is steadily falling down draft boards, hitting a peak of 3.06 in early May to his current 4.06 draft spot. He will slip further; either trade him now or avoid him in a draft.

Top rated DST – Well, really any defense drafted before Round 13. Guys, they just don’t perform. Here are the top three from the last three years according to FFToday with their standard scoring and where they were drafted on average.

1) New Orleans (undrafted)1) Arizona (undrafted)1) Philadelphia (drafted DST12)
2) Philadelphia (drafted DST7)2) New England (undrafted)2) Baltimore (drafted DST11)
3) Green Bay (drafted DST11)3) Oakland (undrafted)3) Green Bay (drafted DST8)

Picking the leading DST in fantasy is as tough as trying to pick a five-team parlay. It is better to just avoid it. Wasting an eighth round pick on a DST that you should cut after Week 3 can be frustrating. Don’t get me wrong — that top rated DST is unlikely to end up ranked 30th at the end of the season, but it is more likely you just used a pick thinking you were getting the DST1 when you are actually getting the DST6 through DST12.

Michael Hawes is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. Nearly 20 years of FF, had to have learned something in that time. You can catch up with Michael in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of bungle613.
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One Response to “Top Five Overvalued Picks for 2011”

  1. User avatar joejlitz says:

    Nice article, Mike.

    With all the hype around Philly, the outstanding pass defense shouldn’t surprise anyone. But for those outside the tri-state area, you might be surprised to see the Eagles lead the league in sacks this year. Their defense is predicated on getting to the QB. With Cole already in place and Babbin getting reacclimated to the city, the Eagles should have a pretty good pass rush.

    What will make them elite is the pass coverage. As Nnamdi, Asante, and DRC shut down the opposing WRs, QBs will have to decide between making errant throws or taking the sack. The Eagles have played defense this way for more than a decade and done so consistently with some Pro-Bowl DBs (Brian Dawkins, Samuel, Troy Vincent, Bobby Taylor, Al Harris, to name just a few). With this 2011 trio, the Eagles will excel again at pressuring the QB.

    In fact, I believe they will lead the league in sacks.


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