StrategyOctober 8, 2011

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Week 5 Roll or No - 5 comments

By Doug Adams

This is my version of the good ol’ Start and Sit, hoping to help you guys out of the quicksand you have got yourself in over the first four weeks. I’m not going waste anyone’s time by telling you to start AP, Drew Brees or Tom Brady. I think it’s much more helpful, especially on bye weeks, to search a little deeper.

Roll ‘em Out

Isaac Redman. Redman has been impressive in limited work backing up the disappointing Rashard Mendenhall this year, and he’s averaged 4.8 YPC over his entire career as a Steeler. Helping Redman’s value are the injuries to both Mewelde Moore (who has already been ruled out) and Mendenhall (game-time decision but not expected to play with his hamstring injury). Although the Titans are not the best matchup, expect the Steelers to protect Ben Roethlisberger due to his foot injury and pound Redman for at least 20 touches (15 carriers, five catches).

Fred Jackson. Bills running back Fred Jackson should have a huge day on Sunday as he takes on the terrible front seven of the Eagles, who have allowed opposing running backs to average 28 fantasy points per game (including six touchdowns) in the first four weeks. With the Eagles allowing 5.3 YPC and the Bills commitment to the running game, expect Jackson to go for 150 total yards and two touchdowns.

Mark Ingram. Saints rookie running back Mark Ingram will be an outstanding play this week against the Carolina Panthers. Ingram’s touches have continued to increase as he gets more comfortable in the Saints complicated offensive system, leading to 17 carries a week ago. The Panthers defense is coming off a week in which they allowed Bears RB Matt Forte to run for 205 yards. They have allowed an awful 22 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over the first quarter of the season. Expect Ingram to have at least 75 yards and a touchdown.

Plaxico Burress. If you play Burress this week, he will be a shot in the leg for your fantasy team. Burress has scored in two of his first four weeks this season and has started to develop a relationship with young quarterback Mark Sanchez. The Patriots secondary has allowed the most points to fantasy wideouts so far this season, a little over 30 PPG. I believe Burress is good for 60 yards and a TD this week.

Julio Jones. The Atlanta rookie has burst onto the fantasy football scene the last two weeks putting together consecutive 100-yard weeks while posting an impressive 23 fantasy points over that time. Expects Jones to keep this up Sunday night against a Packers secondary that has continued to struggle, aside from Charles Woodson (expect him to be on Roddy White). The defending Super Bowl champs have allowed 28.3 points per game to opposing wideouts, which is third worst in the NFL. Expect Jones to go for 90 yards and a score.

Donovan McNabb. Yes, you read that correctly. Vikings veteran quarterback Donovan McNabb has continued to struggle four weeks in and fans have started to rumble for rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. I say those will go quiet at least for one week as McNabb takes on the terrible Arizona Cardinals secondary, which has allowed 18.5 fantasy points per game so far this season, which includes being lit up by Eli Manning a week ago. I expect 250 yards, three touchdowns and a pick.

Jermaine Gresham. The young Bengals tight end should have an outstanding game as the Bengals are getting more comfortable in Jay Gruden’s new West Coast offense. Dalton has developed a great relationship with the former Sooner, who went for 70 yards and a touchdown last week against Buffalo. The Jags have struggled to cover the tight end, allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Expect 60 yards and a TD.

No, Not This Week.

LeGarrette Blount. Blount is high on everyone’s list this week after his impressive performance Monday night against the Colts, and you have to love the young Oregon product, but this week he’s a sit. The 49ers defense has been amazing against running backs this season, allowing just 6.8 fantasy points per game, the best by three points over every other team in the NFL. Expect 55 yards.

Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben will be a big dud this week against a very impressive Titans defense, which has allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. Roethlisberger, who is battling a foot injury, will play through it with a new shoe, but it will limit his biggest advantage: his mobility. That, combined with Pittsburgh wanting to run the ball with Isaac Redman to make up for a poor offensive lineup, should give you enough ammo to find a different option. Expect 200 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

Owen Daniels. Everything would point to this being a great week to play Daniels, with Andre Johnson missing the next month due to an hamstring injury, but I’m here to tell you different. The Oakland Raiders have allowed the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (2.8 fantasy points per game). Expect a heavy dose of Arian Foster against the poor Raiders run defense, limiting the opportunities for Matt Schaub to use his talented tight end. Expect 40 yards.

Wes Welker. Welker has been amazing so far this season — he is the number one wideout in all of fantasy football, but this week he will be headed to Revis Island. Expect Revis to limit the Texas Tech product to his worst game of the season. I love Welker, just not this week. Expect seven catches and 57 yards.

A life long sports fan who wrote for Bearcat Insider for in 2010 as the lead writer for Bearcat Basketball, find me on Twitter @Doug_Adams2.
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5 Responses to “Week 5 Roll or No”

  1. User avatar CBMGreatOne says:

    No chance anyone is benching Wes Welker

  2. User avatar hutchdawg85 says:

    Sit Welker? Ha!

  3. No way I would ever sit Welker for Julio Jones or Plaxico Burress

  4. eggsvonsatan says:

    I would start Wes Welker if he was on Rikers Island

  5. User avatar letterafteri says:

    Whew, glad I didn’t bench Big Ben because of this! Not that I even own him but you know what I’m sayin…


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