StrategyOctober 26, 2011


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Weekly Weakling 08 – LeSean McCoy - 12 comments

By Eli Ricke

Mmmmm. That crow tastes good, although it could have used a bit more salt in the form of a Vikings win. Oh well, let the Packer fans have their day in the sun. It wasn’t so much that I was wrong on AP last week as it was that I was wrong on Christian Ponder. OK, I admit it, I was wrong on AP. However, Ponder far exceeded my expectations and kept the game close. Doing so gave AP more touches, and any time he gets 20 or more carries he does very well. I was expecting a blowout and I think most everyone else was for that matter, but we didn’t get it. Instead we actually had an entertaining game. Although I finally got one wrong, it’s not like I expected to be 17 for 17. As you can tell from the title, I will continue to be bold in my predictions. I’m not letting one bad week throw me off.

Week 8 Weakling

LeSean McCoy

Yeah, I must be crazy after the stinker I put out last week but hear me out on this one. McCoy has been awesome this year, averaging a whopping 5.4 yards per carry and racking up 569 yards in the process, not to mention eight total touchdowns (six rushing, two receiving). How could he possibly have a bad game, right? Well, actually he did have a bad game already back in Week 4 against the 49ers. San Francisco currently ranks second in the NFL against the run. The Dallas Cowboys, the Eagles’ opponent in Week 8, currently ranks first, but this is only part of the equation.

Say what you want about Tony Romo and the Dallas offense. Their defense has been quite good this year, especially against the run. Dallas enters this week giving up an NFL best 69.7 rushing yards per game. Through six games they have only allowed two rushing TDs and have given up the fewest first downs via the run of any team in the NFL. No opposing running back has finished with more than 70 yards. That was Steven Jackson in Week 7 who accomplished that feat on 18 carries. He did have a 40 yard run in the first half which, by the way, is the only run of over 20 yards that Dallas has given up all season. Take away that one carry and he finishes with 30 yards on 17 carries. The next best rushing performance was by BenJarvus Green-Ellis who managed 58 yards on 14 carries, which is not a bad per carry average. Keep in mind however that when the opposing QB is someone named Tom Brady, your defensive scheme is usually not focused on stopping the run. The most notable opposing running back that they’ve faced thus far would probably be Frank Gore, who gained 47 yards on 20 carries against the Cowboys’ defense in Week 2. My point here is that Dallas has faced some pretty decent running backs thus far and have held them all in check.

On the other side of the coin, McCoy has had some pretty easy opponents up to this point, having faced defenses currently ranked 17th, 27th, 30th and 32nd against the run. He did put up good rushing numbers in Week 2 against Atlanta, who ranks sixth against the run, when he gained 95 yards on 18 carries. Keep in mind however that even though they rank sixth against the run the Falcons are still giving up 98.4 yards per game, which is almost 30 yards per game more than Dallas. I’ve already mentioned the best rushing defense that Philadelphia has faced this year. In Week 4 vs. San Francisco, McCoy could only muster 18 rushing yards on nine carries, and that was a home game. I’m not convinced that Dallas will smother McCoy as much as the 49ers did, but he could be in for some tough sledding this week.

There is a weakness in Dallas’ defense that I believe the Eagles will try to take advantage of in this week’s matchup. Terrence Newman is listed as questionable for the game. If he does not play, I’m expecting to see more of a passing attack from Philadelphia as they try to exploit that hole in the secondary.

This week should be a sub-par game for McCoy when it comes to rushing yards. If you’re in a league with stat heavy scoring, you will likely see a large drop in production this week. On the other hand, if you’re in a league with TD heavy scoring he may be right on track, as I do feel that there is a 75% chance that he reaches the end zone. With two more weeks with teams on bye, there are going to be fewer options for backups but that can’t be helped. Personally, I do own him in one league and I will start him, but I’m banking on that TD to help me out.

Projection: 15 carries, 55 yards, 0 TDs, 3 rec, 20 yards, 1 TD

 
Eli Ricke knows absolutely nothing about Fantasy Football that everyone else doesn’t already know. All of his success in Fantasy Football can be attributed entirely to dumb luck. He has been playing Fantasy Football since 1999 and is a habitual liar. You will occasionally run across him in the café forums under the name 204BC, a name that has no particular meaning whatsoever. He just made it up, the same thing he does with most of the advice he gives.
 
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12 Responses to “Weekly Weakling 08 – LeSean McCoy”

  1. User avatar saundman2000 says:

    I agree with you this week.

    In my PPR league, your stat prediction for McCoy would still net me 16 points. I do have diminished expectations for McCoy against Dallas, But I’m still more than comfortable starting him.

    ReplyReply
  2. User avatar c0megets0me says:

    You getting a little brave, picking studs in back to back weeks.

    ReplyReply
  3. User avatar Weasel_King says:

    I see that you are down on McCoy but even with your projected point-scoring production, I don’t think you can justify sitting him (13 points in standard leagues nothing to sneeze at).

    ReplyReply
  4. User avatar snemacheck says:

    Do you think I should sit him and play BGE or Torain instead? I don’t want a weakling lol

    ReplyReply
  5. User avatar c0megets0me says:

    Last week I understood your point and could see why your projections were low for AP. However, this week I think your really of the mark. I actually see McCoy having a really big game. Dallas defense likes to rush the edge, leaving the middle a little weak. I could really see McCoy having a couple huge gainers on delayed handoffs and screen passes right up the middle.

    ReplyReply
  6. Jai says:

    Agree with cOmegetsOme – Philly’s doesn’t have a “traditional” style of rushing.

    ReplyReply
  7. User avatar c0megets0me says:

    I really hope your right about this, the team im playing has McCoy and as of right now its not lookin good. Crossing my fingers

    ReplyReply
  8. Looks like he matched your prediction in the 1st quarter. Im glad you were off cause i need this win…

    ReplyReply
  9. jeremy1991 says:

    Well this didn’t seem to work out

    ReplyReply
  10. bcollins says:

    Ouch

    ReplyReply
  11. Aberfoyle says:

    Im gonna start doing the opposite of what this sites “experts recommend.” Just noticed this terrible terrible article, of course I would never sit McCoy since hes a stud. Ive seen Torain being touted week after week and in the 3 weeks since he had the great game he has averaged 1 point a game. Pierre Thomas was a trash bag this week. Seriously, lots of garbage coming out of this forum.

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  12. Jai says:

    @Aberfoyle, if you’re relying solely on this site for info then you’re a trashbag fantasy owner…just sayin. This forum provides loads of insite and information and it’s usually on point but it should be used along with other info and personal knowledge. I’ve searched around and this site is one of the best if not the best I’ve found for fantasy sports info. Put yourself out there like these guys then we’ll talk.

    ReplyReply

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