StrategyNovember 2, 2011

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Weekly Weakling 09 – Greg Jennings - 6 comments

By Eli Ricke

Two flops in a row for me and if I want to regain any credibility that I had then I have to stop that trend this week. The problem is that I want to put a product out that makes people think. I could easily pick a no-brainer but what exactly would be the point of that? All I’d be doing is wasting my time and yours.

Since I’ve been burned in consecutive weeks by running backs, I’ve decided to pick on a different position. For the record, I actually contemplated going with Matt Schaub again but decided against it for two reasons. First of all, I had already picked him once, and secondly, although Cleveland’s defense is ranked No. 2 against the pass, they’re still Cleveland (no offense to Cleveland fans). While breaking down their season so far I realized that they haven’t actually faced any good QBs yet. I believe that their defensive rank against the pass is more a matter of matchups and luck than actual defensive prowess. I then considered Ray Rice, but after getting drubbed by two top tier RBs in consecutive weeks I decided not to go that route again…maybe later. After much consternation and rummaging through matchups and stats, I wound up picking a WR, and a darn good one at that. I do however feel confident enough to run with this for reasons you will read in a moment.

Week 9 Weakling

Greg Jennings

It’s hard to argue against Greg Jennings being one of the top WRs in football. Talent-wise, I think he’s just a notch below Calvin Johnson. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, he is definitely top five. His matchup this week is a bit tough though.

Green Bay travels to San Diego this week. While the Chargers defense isn’t what I’d call Super Bowl caliber, it isn’t exactly terrible either. It seems that when it comes to the passing game, they have concentrated on stopping the opponent’s No. 1 receiver, and with a good deal of success too. The problem for them is that they have allowed their opponent’s No. 2 receivers and TEs to run rampant. San Diego has given up only one TD to a No. 1 WR all season and that was to Dwayne Bowe in Week 3 from four yards out. You could argue that they did give up a three-TD game to Plaxico Burress in Week 7, but I would counter that Santonio Holmes is the Jets’ top receiver. Either way, Burress only finished the game with 25 yards receiving. The point here that I’m making is that all four TDs that SD has given up to top WRs (if you count Plaxico’s) have come from inside the red zone, or more precisely from inside the five (TDs of four, three, four and four yards). The reason this is important is because when the Packers get close to the end zone, Jennings is more of a decoy than a target. He did score from seven yards out in Week 1, but all four of his other TDs have come from much further out. To put a little more emphasis on this point, Aaron Rodgers has nine TD passes from inside the 10-yard line this season, eight of them were to people not named Greg Jennings.

One very minor issue is that Jennings is coming off a hand injury sustained in their Week 7 matchup with Minnesota. It appears to be of little concern, as he is expected to be a full participant in practice this week and is listed as probable on the team’s injury report. Being that Green Bay is coming off a bye and he’s had an extra week to heal, there is no reason to doubt his availability.

From game film that I’ve watched, the Chargers’ basic strategy is to double team the opponent’s top WR with Eric Weddle and Quentin Jammer, but as I’ve already mentioned, this leaves a lot of one on one situations for other receivers. I’m expecting the Packers to put up 35 points or more on San Diego, and I’m also expecting Aaron Rodgers to have three TDs. However, I’m not so sure that Jennings will be the recipient of any scores. Your best bet for a TD if you own any Packers receivers is Jermichael Finley or Jordy Nelson, both of which I expect big games from. Heck, even James Jones and Donald Driver are pretty safe bets in this one.

Projection: 4 receptions, 55 yards, 0 TDs.

Eli Ricke knows absolutely nothing about Fantasy Football that everyone else doesn’t already know. All of his success in Fantasy Football can be attributed entirely to dumb luck. He has been playing Fantasy Football since 1999 and is a habitual liar. You will occasionally run across him in the café forums under the name 204BC, a name that has no particular meaning whatsoever. He just made it up, the same thing he does with most of the advice he gives.
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6 Responses to “Weekly Weakling 09 – Greg Jennings”

  1. Silence says:

    As a jennings owner I very much hope you’re wrong for the 3rd time.

  2. MistaBigxxL says:

    I enjoy reading this article each week and am thankful that you didn’t name on of my players again. I just told my buddy that he should feel comfortable starting Finley.

  3. User avatar saundman2000 says:

    I agree with you this week. Jennings will get his, but they may be few and they may be short.

  4. HotHandz305 says:

    Normally I’d hate to see my players up here, but with the recent trend of mess ups this might jinx Jennings into another 20+ game. Then again, it come true and we see a 2pt game.

  5. It sounds like you are going for it all or bust on this pick.

  6. 204BC says:

    Well, I was almost right. If Finley had kept his feet in on the previous play, Jennings would have not gotten that TD. Even so, I was right about 1 thing. Nelson and Finley were big in this one with Jordy being the better play and Finley about even with Jennings.

    I won’t chalk this up as being right, but it was certainly not as far off as the past two articles. At least that’s a plus (for me, not Jennings owners – just be glad Finley didn’t get his feet down).


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