StrategySeptember 28, 2011


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The Weekly Weakling 04 – Mark Sanchez - 7 comments

By Eli Ricke

So far this blind squirrel has found three nuts. For me, this week’s article looks to be a much bigger challenge. I looked at every single matchup, more than once, and to be totally honest I had a rather difficult time finding one to exploit. It seemed that the best defenses were up against teams that didn’t really have any top players worthy of writing an article about. At the same time, most of the top players are matched up against weak defenses, and I don’t see any off the field issues for any top players that merit an article either. After analyzing as many matchups as I could squeeze in, I had to choose someone. I only hope that I chose wisely.

Week 4 Weakling

Mark Sanchez

Mark Sanchez? I know what you’re thinking, but let me explain. Although owned in most leagues he does not seem to be considered by most as a top fantasy player. However, in all six leagues that I am participating in this year, each with its own unique scoring system, Sanchez ranks in the top 13 overall. To put it in perspective for you, he’s only 31 total yards behind Aaron Rodgers and actually has more 20-plus yard plays than the aforementioned QB from Green Bay. His level of play thus far puts him in the upper echelon of fantasy players. Whether he can maintain that for an entire season is yet to be determined. I believe his matchup this week may bring him down a notch.

The New York Jets travel to Baltimore in Week 4. At first glance this may seem to be an easy pick, but if you consider that Baltimore only ranks 17th against the pass so far this year, it suddenly doesn’t seem to be so much of a lock. Looking at Baltimore’s defensive pass ranking, one might think that Sanchez should have a good day. The problem is he doesn’t seem to like his WRs as much as his RBs and TEs. On the season, Mark Sanchez has completed 76 passes for 886 yards and six TDs. When you break that down it looks like this: 27/329/3 to WRs, 20/292/2 to his TEs and 29/265/1 to RBs. Only 35% of his completions have been to WRs.

Through the first three weeks of the season, the Ravens have not given up a single passing TD to a running back or tight end. Their Achilles heel, and the reason that they’re 17th against the pass thus far, has been the WR position. WRs from opposing teams have racked up a combined stat line of 50/600/3 against Baltimore through Week 3. The question is, will Sanchez take advantage of this or will he check down to his third or fourth option? It seems to me that many times Sanchez is checking down not because his WRs aren’t getting open but because he is under pressure and has to get rid of the ball quickly. If the Ravens’ front can put enough heat on Sanchez so he won’t have time to find the open WR down-field, then they may find themselves in a favorable position. Sanchez has been known to force passes into traffic and Baltimore is one team that can take advantage of that. It is my opinion that it will be more of the same from Sanchez but with less favorable results than he’s had so far. I look for him once again to heavily favor his check down options in this game. The wild card here is LaDainian Tomlinson, who can still break loose on any play. We’ll find out if he can bail Sanchez out this week, and I believe he will to an extent. I just don’t think it will be enough.

Projection: 18 of 26, 195 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT

 
Eli Ricke knows absolutely nothing about Fantasy Football that everyone else doesn’t already know. All of his success in Fantasy Football can be attributed entirely to dumb luck. He has been playing Fantasy Football since 1999 and is a habitual liar. You will occasionally run across him in the café forums under the name 204BC, a name that has no particular meaning whatsoever. He just made it up, the same thing he does with most of the advice he gives.
 
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7 Responses to “The Weekly Weakling 04 – Mark Sanchez”

  1. User avatar DraftDodger says:

    Your calls have been great up til now, but I think your logic is flawed on this one. First, we can’t really say that the Ravens are good at denying tight ends. The best they’ve faced in nfl.com scoring is Heath Miller, who’s like 24th among tight ends with a lousy 12.9 fantasy points thru 3 weeks. Tweedletitans and Tweedlerams TEs don’t even add up to that much, lol. Sanchez isn’t throwing to some guy on the THIRD PAGE of tight ends, he’s passing to the #3 fantasy scorer among TEs, Dustin Keller.

    How about at running back? The most receiving yard for the season by any of the teams who’ve faced the ravens is a whopping 57 yards for Cadillac Williams, who is also the magical 24 among RBs. The Tomlinson guy from the Jets is, oh I dunno, SECOND AMONG ALL RBs with 196 and a score.

    Face it: the Ravens haven’t faced a decent tight end, and they haven’t faced any RB who is catching out of the backfield.

    Regardless of how you expect Sanchez to perform against the Ravens, your logic is flawed on this one.

    ReplyReply
  2. I love your article and you’ve been right on the mark so far but really? March Sanchez?? My 10 year old daughter could’ve called this one.

    ReplyReply
  3. TreyvianM says:

    Does this mean your advice would be to Sit Dustin Keller? My other TE option is Greg Olsen so Im personally leaning towards keller here which means Id need Sanchez to have a good game.

    ReplyReply
  4. 204BC says:

    @biggest daddy:

    Actually, no. I don’t think your 10 yr old daughter could call that one. It seems many people are down on Sanchez and don’t feel he has much value as a fantasy QB. I tried to give a few reasons why this should not be the mindset that most people have. In fact, he’s been pretty darn good. He has thrown 2 TD’s in each of his past 5 regular season games dating back to last year. On top of that, as I pointed out above, Baltimore hasn’t exactly been living up to 2002 standards so far this season. Heck, they made Matt Hasselbeck look 10 years younger in week 2.

    This is far from a gimme.

    The little Ravens decal on your post also suggests a little bias on your part. But I guess we’re all a little guilty of that from time to time.

    ReplyReply
  5. 204BC says:

    @DraftDodger:

    I apologize for that and I understand your post completely. I didn’t get enough time to really dig into this one and give a more coherent logic behind the decision. The reason was that I actually had selected L. McCoy and had everything ready to go but at the last moment my gut told me that was not really a good idea. Without Vick they will likely lean on him even more. Although I think his yds per carry will go down a little this week he should still easily top 100 combined yards and probably will score. Considering that, I just couldn’t do it and I had to pick someone else. By then I didn’t have as much time to put together the research necessary to sell the argument.

    I will try to do better next week.

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  6. 204BC says:

    @TreyvianM:

    Stay with Keller. Sanchez will lean heavily on him in this game. Keller can still have a great game even if his QB does not.

    ReplyReply
  7. Please checkout my rankings
    advice4fantasy.blogspot.com/

    ReplyReply

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