StrategyOctober 12, 2011


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Weekly Weakling 06 – Matt Schaub - 2 comments

By Eli Ricke

Week 5 is behind us, and so is the start of the weekly byes. For the middle part of the season, this makes my research a bit more difficult due to the fact that I base most of my predictions on stats and trends, with a little gut feeling thrown in for good measure, and the stats are skewed since some teams have now played more games than others. Because of this I find myself relying more on that gut feeling. Right now, my gut is feeling a bit grumbly, although that could be the lasagna I just ate.

Week 6 Weakling

Matt Schaub

Schaub is currently ranked ninth in the NFL through five weeks with 1,377 total yards (275.4 per game), and he is seventh in total TDs with nine. Although not an elite fantasy QB, he is definitely above average, a starter for most fantasy squads that have him. I’m not going to say he absolutely needs to be benched this week but, depending on who your backup is, you may want to at least consider the switch unless, of course, your backup is on bye.

I have two major concerns about Matt Schaub this week. The first is his matchup. The Texans travel to Baltimore this week. Since the stat is skewed due to Baltimore having last week off, their defensive ranking for total yards allowed is not really valid. However there are still a number of statistics that are quite telling. Baltimore currently ranks eighth overall in yards allowed per game at 212. So far they’ve played two at home and two on the road. At home, where they’ll be this week, they’ve only allowed 199.5 yards per game. An even more daunting fact is that they’ve forced 11 turnovers in those two home games. The Ravens currently rank third overall in yards allowed per attempt at 6.2 and their opponent’s QB rating thus far is a measly 61.6, which ranks first in the NFL. They’ve also given up only one play of over 40 yards, and they rank second in plays of over 20 yards with 10. Opposing QBs are completing 52.7% of their passes, and last but not least, they are tied for first in the NFL for passing TDs allowed, with opponents collectively managing three through the Ravens’ first four games.

The second major concern I have for Matt Schaub is his safety blanket, or his nookie if you will, Andre Johnson. Johnson is recovering from a hamstring injury suffered in Week 4. He sat out last week’s game, and thus far there are no definitive answers as to when he’ll be back. The injury report on NFL.com lists him as out as of Tuesday night, but I’ve seen other reports that say he may possibly play this week. We’ll have to watch the reports later in the week to see if he practices on Thursday or Friday. If he does, there’s a good chance that he’ll be suited up on Sunday. However, based on my own personal experience with a hamstring injury, I can guarantee you that even if he does play he will not be 100%. These things generally take quite a bit of time to fully heal, so regardless of whether he plays or not, it is still of concern to me.

Now simply missing his best receiver is not automatically going to drag Matt Schaub down in his game. He proved that last week by passing for 416 yards without Johnson. The thing I noticed though is that Schaub did rely heavily on his TEs and RBs to pull off the yardage numbers that he did. In fact, take away all receptions by those two positions and he finishes the game with only 99 yards. I mention this because I brought it up already in an earlier article in regards to Baltimore’s defense. Baltimore is very stingy when it comes to allowing TEs and RBs to rack up receiving stats. I won’t go into more detail about that here, but you can go back and read my Week 4 article and see what I’m referring to.

The bottom line here is that I just don’t think the stars will line up for Schaub this week. He has too much going against him. Based on that, I would consider another option if one is readily available. I wouldn’t go too low on the totem pole, so you could count out a guy like Donavan McNabb, but someone like Rex Grossman might not be a bad bet.

Projection: 18 of 26, 200 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT

 
Eli Ricke knows absolutely nothing about Fantasy Football that everyone else doesn’t already know. All of his success in Fantasy Football can be attributed entirely to dumb luck. He has been playing Fantasy Football since 1999 and is a habitual liar. You will occasionally run across him in the café forums under the name 204BC, a name that has no particular meaning whatsoever. He just made it up, the same thing he does with most of the advice he gives.
 
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2 Responses to “Weekly Weakling 06 – Matt Schaub”

  1. flipcap22 says:

    Good points here. This is my first year doing FF so I’m a bit of a newbie. I’ve been told to always start Schaub but the Raven’s defense is scaring me. I also have Sanchez who’s at home facing Miami. I’ve only played Sanchez one time in Week 3 and both he and Schaub were about even in FP’s. So who do you think I should start?

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  2. 204BC says:

    @flipcap22:

    Sanchez is a good option this week. Remember that it was Miami’s defense that Tom Brady threw up 500+ on in week 1 in Miami. Granted, Sanchez is not Brady and I did advise benching him against this same Ravens defense in week 4. However, aside from that game, Sanchez has put up very good numbers going back to last season. He’s tossed 2TD’s in 6 out of his last 7 regular season games. The one time he didn’t was 2 weeks ago against the Ravens and Miami’s defense is nowhere near as good as Baltimore’s. If it were my fantasy squad I’d go with Sanchez this week.

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