StrategySeptember 21, 2011

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The Weekly Weakling 03: Reggie Wayne - 7 comments

By Eli Ricke

Last week I mentioned it might be a good time to sell high on Jamaal Charles. In retrospect I wish I had taken my own advice, but as they say, hindsight is 20/20. Nobody can predict injuries with great accuracy, or even slightly better than bad accuracy for that matter. There’s no telling whether I would have been right or wrong in going with Charles as my Week 2 pick. If you followed with my advice and benched him, then at the very least you didn’t get burned in Week 2, even if it was pure coincidence.

So far this season I’ve gone with running backs, but for this week’s weakling I’m switching gears to the WR position. This is harder to do in my opinion, considering the nature of the game these days and rule changes in recent years that have made the NFL a pass-heavy league. Even so, there is one top WR that I have a bad feeling about in Week 3.

Week 3 Weakling

Reggie Wayne

Despite the absence of Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne hasn’t had a very bad start to the season. In their opening week loss to Houston, he managed an impressive six catches for 106 yards and a TD. To me that’s impressive, simply because of the fact that Manning was not throwing the ball. He didn’t fare quite as well in Week 2, only posting a mediocre 4-66-0 stat line, which would probably be O.K. in a PPR format but a little anemic in most other leagues. The fact is that even without his usual QB at the helm, he’s put up decent enough numbers for some fantasy owners to trust him more than they probably did heading into Week 1. This week, however, you might want to check that trust and go with somebody else.

The Colts host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. There’s an interesting stat that I dug up on this matchup. Indianapolis’ offense currently ranks 27th in the NFL for passing yardage per game through the first two weeks while Pittsburgh’s defense ranks fourth against the pass. The interesting part is that both of them average exactly 174 yards/game. Looking at that, there are three different possible outcomes. Indy could surpass their average on offense while Pittsburgh slips a little, or Pittsburgh could improve their defensive rank while Indy slides down a notch or two. The third possibility is that the Colts pass for exactly 174 yards. If I were a betting man, and sometimes I am, I’d place my chips on option number two.

If we were to go strictly by the stats, one could argue that Indy has had a tough schedule to start the season. After all, Houston and Cleveland currently rank first and second in the NFL against the pass, respectively. The flip side to that argument is that they both have such a lofty defensive ranking partially due to the fact that they were fortunate enough to play against Indianapolis. I think it’s quite possibly a little bit of both.

Pittsburgh has had a stellar defense for many years, especially in the past decade. They are consistently at the top and for good reason: they have great defensive players. Wayne has so far been the main threat on offense for the Colts; rest assured that Pittsburgh has taken notice. More than likely he will be shadowed all day by Ike Taylor. Even if he does manage to break free he still has Troy Polamalu lurking in the background. Quite simply put, I don’t like the matchup for Reggie this week. He will probably see a lot of double coverage and it will be difficult to get the ball to him. On top of that, I think that the Steelers will force at least two turnovers in the game and control the majority of the clock, which makes Reggie Wayne a fantasy football anathema this week. If you’ve got a decent WR on the bench with a better matchup, you might want to make the switch.

Projection: 3 receptions, 40 yards, no TDs.

Eli Ricke knows absolutely nothing about Fantasy Football that everyone else doesn’t already know. All of his success in Fantasy Football can be attributed entirely to dumb luck. He has been playing Fantasy Football since 1999 and is a habitual liar. You will occasionally run across him in the café forums under the name 204BC, a name that has no particular meaning whatsoever. He just made it up, the same thing he does with most of the advice he gives.
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7 Responses to “The Weekly Weakling 03: Reggie Wayne”

  1. User avatar Chicago 2 says:

    You have been dead on so far with these weakly weakling articles.

    I hate you for jinxing Charles :(

  2. User avatar DraftDodger says:

    Yep, I’m starting to think that Ricke’s Weakly Weakling is a more powerful curse than the cover of Madden’s.

    Reggie Wayne, we salute you! (but we won’t start you)

  3. 204BC says:

    @Chicago 2:

    You probably just returned the favor and jinxed me. Now that you’ve brought attention to my accuracy (so far) Wayne will probably go off for 9/170/3 or something like that.

    Oh well, I’m bound to get one wrong sooner or later.

  4. E-Sac says:

    Before I logged in to Fantasy Cafe for the day I started A.J. Green againts the Niners over Reggie Wayne! I salute you sir!

  5. User avatar joejlitz says:

    My choices are Mike Sims-Walker or Percy Harvin to start over Wayne. Thoughts?

  6. NOT MSW. I would probably play Harvin over Wayne but man thats close. No way MSW though.

  7. Silence says:

    Talk about being close with a prediction. 3 rec for 24 yards. good calls so far!


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