SleepersAugust 17, 2012

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Sleeper Watch - 3 comments

By murphysxm

How can I justify recommending a player that did little to nothing on the worst team in football last year? A player that is one hit from Jahvid Best territory? A player who has a pedestrian three-year average of 57 receptions, 613 yards and 5 TDs per season? A WR who is entering the season with a rookie QB? I can, and will, because for the first time in Austin Collie’s career, he is an every-down WR. The Colts have already made the switch and moved Collie from the slot to the outside, and Andrew Luck appears to not be your normal rookie QB.

I don’t put a tremendous amount of stock in camp reports, but since the Colts began training camp this year, the talk about Luck and Collie has been glowing. The first preseason game against the Rams supported this optimism as Collie was targeted five times by Luck and posted a solid line of 3-45-1. We also have history on our side. Before Collie’s concussion issues of 2010 sprouted up, he was on pace for 103 receptions, 1,154 yards and 14 TDs in just his second NFL season. Collie has also always been a very sneaky red-zone target and holds 16 career TDs, despite only starting 16 games. Collie’s ADP is currently 10.08. The fact that his ADP was 14.01 as recent as Aug. 14 shows his needle is moving.

On the field the Colts are certainly better than last year, but let’s not kid ourselves. The Colts have issues. They have a new defense that will have growing pains and their secondary may be the worst in football. The Colts aren’t going to be playing many 7-6 games. On the offensive side of the ball, Collie shares snaps in the WR/TE corps with an aging star and a bunch of rookies. The offensive line will compete with the secondary as possibly being the worst unit in the NFL, and the starting RB is an average back at best. I can’t see a scenario where Luck doesn’t pass, and pass quickly, a bunch this season.

Collie will not be a fantasy WR1, and banking on him being a solid every-week WR2 is probably a reach. However, anytime I can draft a guy in the 10th round, as probably my third or fourth WR, that I feel confident will be start able in all weeks, I am happy. I am penciling Collie in as many of my rosters as I can as my WR3 and project 75 receptions, 1,000 yards and 9 TDs.

Just an average guy that enjoys talking fantasy. Follow me here in the forum under username murphysxm.
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3 Responses to “Austin Collie”

  1. criff19 says:

    Correct me if I am wrong, but 1000 yards and 9 tds puts Collie on pace with about what Dez Bryant did last year. Dez was a top 20 WR. Are you saying that Collie is a WR3/WR4 as the article suggests or a WR2 as your projections suggest?

  2. murphysxm says:

    Cliff, my intent was he will be drafted in WR3/4 territory, but perform as a WR2. However, the concussion issue reared it’s ugly head tonight. Atleast I acknowledged it as a risk before it happened..

  3. jbcettina says:

    Yup loks like Collie willbe out with concussion like systems.. so much for that.


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